Oscar Predictions, Part 3: Screenplays

Welcome back for the final installment of my Oscar predictions (for the week, anyway). Today, we'll be tackling a subject of much interest to me as a writer: the screenplay categories. The films are divided into two groups: Original and Adapted from Previously Published Material.

Original Screenplay
There seems to be a dearth of viable contenders in this category, for whatever reason. I've got four films that are almost guaranteed a place, and then I'm at a bit of a loss to come up with another competitor that sounds right. Oh well. The four locks:
The Hurt Locker. This movie's destined to score with the Academy in a big way, at least nominations-wise. There's no way it's not getting in here. In fact, it's already been cited by festivals and various early awards organizations. It's in.
Inglorious Basterds. At first I was skeptical about this film's nomination chances, but now it seems like a done deal. People love this movie, and, like every Tarantino movie, it's strongest point is its screenplay.
A Serious Man. Though it might be too odd and polarizing to get a best picture nomination, it's not a stretch to imagine the Academy rewarding the Coens for their usual quirky creative genius.
Up. Pixar movies pretty much get in here without trying, unless reviews are awful (but we're talking Pixar, so 'awful' reviews means 'only mildly enthusiastic'). Up certainly didn't get awful reviews, so expect to see Pete Docter and co. at the awards ceremony.

That leaves one slot, but who to fill it? Bright Star was my early guess, but it seems that Jane Campion's film has sunk, and I don't expect it to score in any major categories. The Messenger might also come into play here, but this tiny drama about the military's casualty department probably won't get seen by enough member to score any nominations. That leaves two more possibilities in my mind. The first is (500) Days of Summer. Critics went wild for this movie back in June, and it's not hard to imagine that Academy voters will remember it come ballot time. The other, less likely possibility is Michael Haneke's The White Ribbon. While it will almost undoubtedly come into play in the Foreign Language Film category, the film might not be well-loved enough to score other nominations. Foreign films have to be quite universal in acclaim and appeal to get outside of their own categories. Still, in such a thin spread of contenders, it could push through.
My predicted five, in order of likelihood:
The Hurt Locker
Up
A Serious Man
Inglorious Basterds
(500) Days of Summer
Alternate: The Messenger, The White Ribbon

Adapted Screenplay
Every year, this category seems to be stuffed full of big prestige flicks, with too many good films competing for too few spots. This year seems no exception.
Three movies have been released this year to general acclaim that you can put money on: Precious, An Education, and Up in the Air. All three have been loved across the board, have been especially lauded for their screenplay.
Two more spots to fill, and many contenders. I need to devote a moment to three of the big question marks left in the season: Nine, Invictus, and The Lovely Bones. All are adapted screenplays, and all of them could sink or swim at this point. The Lovely Bones seems the surest bet here. Musicals like Nine have trouble scoring screenplay nods, and I'm expecting Invictus to be bad, so both seem unlikely here. Still, the word-of-mouth from Nine screenings seems incredibly positive, so it could still find its way in here.
Two other, smaller films also seem poised to make a splash here. First, Tom Ford's A Single Man. We have yet to see the public's opinion of this film, but word on the festival circuit bodes well. The Last Station, the Tolstoy biopic, could also easily make it's way in here. I'm a little dubious, however, simply because hardly anyone has seen this film yet. It might not make an impression.
My Predicted Five:
Precious
The Lovely Bones
An Education
Up in the Air
Nine
Alternate: A Single Man, The Last Station

There we are. All the major categories. I was planning on cutting it off here, but just for funsies, I think I'm going to post my predictions for all categories. It can't hurt, and I have some time to kill. Don't worry--I'll spare you the commentary.

Art Direction
Nine
The Lovely Bones
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Bright Star
Avatar
Alternate: Sherlock Holmes, Public Enemies

Costume Design
Nine
Bright Star
Inglorious Basterds
Cheri
Public Enemies
Alternate: The Young Victoria, Sherlock Holmes

Visual Effects
Avatar
Star Trek
District 9
Alternate: The Lovely Bones, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Makeup
Star Trek
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
The Lovely Bones
Alternate: Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant, District 9

Film Editing
The Hurt Locker
Avatar
Nine
The Lovely Bones
Precious
Alternate: Inglorious Basterds, Up in the Air

Cinematography
Nine
Bright Star
The Lovely Bones
A Single Man
The Hurt Locker
Alternate: Avatar, Amelia

Original Score
Avatar
Up
The Lovely Bones
The Princess and the Frog
Bright Star
Alternate: Coco Avant Chanel, The Road

Sound Mixing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Nine
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Alternate: District 9, Up

Sound Effects Editing
Avatar
Star Trek
Up
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
District 9
Alternate: The Hurt Locker, 2012

Animated Film
Up
Ponyo
The Princess and the Frog
Coraline
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Alternate: A Christmas Carol, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs

Foreign Language Film
The White Ribbon-Germany
A Prophet-France
Police, Adjective-Romania
Mother-South Korea
The Secrets of Her Eyes-Argentina
Alternate: Max Manus-Norway, Letters From Father Jacob-Finland

Documentary Feature
The Cove
Food, Inc.
Mugabe and the White African
Under Our Skin
Burma VJ
Alternate: Valentino: The Last Emperor, The Most Dangerous Man in America