A Final Oscar Analysis, Part 1: Major Categories

Hey y'all.
It's that time again. Oscar nominations come out one week from today, and, as such, I figured I'd lay down some commentary on the major races, as well as some predictions. I'll put my final predictions up Monday morning. Things could very well change (in my mind) between now and then, so we'll see. For now, let's take a look at where the race is at.

Best Picture
Most everyone on the web who concerns themselves with this sort of thing agrees that there are five locks, and five slots wide open. I'm certainly not going to make any waves on the subject. These five films will all make it in, barring something incredibly, incredibly unforeseen:

The Hurt Locker (won Producers Guild Award, nominated for SAG ensemble award, Writers Guild Award, Golden Globe, won a mess of critics awards, including the Broadcast Film Critics, LA, New York, Boston, Chicago, etc.)

Avatar (won the Golden Globe for best picture and director, nominated for Producers Guild, Writers Guild, a mess of critics awards. Also a box office phenomenon which just became the highest grossing film ever world-wide, and is poised to take the domestic box office title within two weeks.)

Inglourious Basterds (won SAG ensemble awards, nominated for Producers Guild, Golden Globe, BFCA, many other critical citations.)

Up in the Air (though it didn't have the steam some think it did, but still has been nominated for Golden Globe, Producers Guild, Writers Guild, BFCA, etc.)

Precious (Also not as big a contender as predicted. Still nominated for, you guessed it, the Golden Globe, Producers Guild, Writers Guild, SAG ensemble award, BFCA, etc.)

These five films are in. The Hurt Locker is a highly regarded critical success, Avatar is too big to ignore, Inglorious Basterds is Quentin Tarantino's reward for a long career, and Up in the Air and Precious were both very well received.

Five more slots, then. Honestly, I have no clue what films will actually succeed here. I have hunches, admittedly, and some decent leads, but any of the seven films I'm about to list could score here, as could any number of surprise contenders. It's a mystery. The seven films that are most likely to make it, in alphabetical order:

An Education: Lone Scherfig's coming-of-age drama represents international cinema here. It's (mostly) loved, critically acclaimed, and sports a fantastic cast. The buzz is fairly quiet, and the film is small, but I'm still expecting it to get in.

District 9: That's right. You read that correctly. This little film that could has surpassed even the highest expectations, landing many a guild notice (including the all-important Producers Guild) and critical rave. While I can't quite connect with this film the way most people apparently can, I'd still love to see it show up here, if only because it's so very not traditional Oscar fare.

Invictus: Speaking of traditional Oscar fare...No one seems to like this movie that much, yet it has still somehow garnered some awards traction. I'd like to think that the Academy will look past this safe, boring effort in favor of better work, but God knows the Academy does love pitching to the middle.

The Messenger: This is the only film on the list that I haven't seen, but I'm rooting for it anyway. Oren Moverman's tiny debut drama earned rave reviews, and is supposed to be just fantastic. The problem? It's very, very small. Most people didn't see this film. It's hard to get nominated for awards when your film hasn't been seen.

A Serious Man: The Coen Brothers' latest foray into darkness has many a passionate follower, and passion counts in the Academy's preference-based balloting system (explanation: voters submit ten films in order of preference. #1 rankings count more than #7 rankings). This could easily make it in.

Star Trek: Once again, you've read correctly. Star Trek is just the kind of big commercial and critical success that the expansion of the best picture field was done to include. A big problem, however. The big commercial and critical success slot has already been filled by Avatar, and District 9 is putting a stronger showing in as far as sci-fi films go.

Up: Pixar has been flirting with this category the whole decade. With the expansion of the field, it will almost be heresy for Up to miss here. Still, some people like The Fantastic Mr. Fox better, and chances are we'll only see one animated film make the cut.

In my humble opinion, our best picture slate will be comprised of ten of these twelve films. Still, there are a couple films playing in the shadows that might spoil my prognosticating. They are: (500) Days of Summer, Crazy Heart, The White Ribbon, A Single Man, Nine, and The Fantastic Mr. Fox. Do I see any of these making it? Not at all. Still, you never know...
My predicted 10, in order of likelihood:
The Hurt Locker
Avatar
Inglorious Basterds
Up in the Air
Precious
An Education
Up
A Serious Man
District 9
The Messenger

I know, I'm probably crazy leaving Invictus out of the mix (the Academy has to have at least one middlebrow, boring nominee. That's always the rule), especially in favor of The Messenger. If anything's beating Invictus, it's probably Star Trek. But hell. I'm feeling optimistic right now.

Best Director
Ahhh. This one is easier. We have three locks, and four directors fighting for spots.
The locks:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

These three are in. End of discussion.
Next? Some bloggers are arguing that Jason Reitman (Up in the Air) isn't as stable as we think, but the hell with that. Sorry, he's in. That leaves one spot open. The most likely contenders:
Lee Daniels, Precious. While he's taken some flac for this film, it's still quite successful. Voters might be looking to honor the film across the board.
Clint Eastwood, Invictus. Once again, the middlebrow may carry the day here. The Academy does love them some Clint. If he gets nominated, I'll going to have to cap someone. No lie.
Neil Blomkamp, District 9. This movie keeps popping up, and, regardless of its genre, it would be foolishness to exclude it from major conversations. Plus, Blomkamp's getting most of the credit for making District 9 something special. If it weren't so anti-Academy aesthetic, I'd say he's in for sure. I wouldn't be surprised, though. Other film-makers with a tiny chance:
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon
Lone Scherfig, An Education
My predicted five:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lee Daniels, Precious
Once again, I'm probably silly for not predicting Invictus, but I just can't predict that movie. It's too hard.

Original Screenplay
This one's easy. It's been the same five films since square one, and, barring surprises, will be the same five films on nomination morning. They are:
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
(500) Days of Summer

I'd say that (500) Days of Summer is vulnerable here, but not too vulnerable. If anything kicks it out, it will be The Messenger, which is (allegedly) spectacularly written, but a very small film. Or, perhaps Avatar; I know the screenplay isn't very good, but if the Academy goes completely nuts for this film, expect it to show up here.
My predictions:
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
(500) Days of Summer

Adapted Screenplay
This one isn't as easy. There are three definites here, films which cannon conceivably miss:
An Education
Precious
Up in the Air
Past that, however, is anybody's guess. Here are some possibilities:
Crazy Heart: Though most reviews I've read cite this movie for its cliched and trite screenplay, it's still found some love. I don't want it to happen, but it might.
District 9: This film has really found a following. Screenplay would be a great place to honor this film.
The Fantastic Mr. Fox: The people that love this film really, really love it. If it's expected to compete with Up for Animated Film, it needs to show up here (unless, of course, Up doesn't get into its screenplay category either, in which case it's anybody's game).
In the Loop: This film is probably too small. Its script is supposed to be pretty great, and it's gotten a few notices, but my guess is not enough voters will have seen it.
Invictus: Middlebrow. Enough Said.
Julie and Julia: Another possibility. Adapting two books isn't easy, and voters might reward Nora Ephron for that.
Star Trek: Yup. If it makes it into Best Picture, it could easily show up here.
My Predictions:
Up in the Air
An Education
Precious
District 9
Crazy Heart
or: The Fantastic Mr. Fox, Invictus, Julie and Julia

It's really too hard to say at this point. I doubt I'll have any more insight in a week, either. Oh well. Them's the breaks.


That's it for now, I suppose. I'll do the acting categories tomorrow, and the tech categories the day after. Until then!