Oscar Predictions, part 1: Best Picture

Hey all. It's been awhile. I figure I can't resist doing Oscar predictions every year, and I might as well put them here, as opposed to on Facebook. So I'll just dive in: this will kick off my five-day prediction blitz. Today, I'll do picture. Tomorrow I'll do director and screenplay, Saturday will be acting categories, Sunday will be the tech awards, and I'll do a final predictions list on Monday to put everything in one place. So here we go! Bear in mind that Oscar season is a year-round prognosticating event, and jumping into the season this late will be disorienting, at best. Apologies if I don't explain things as well as I ought to.

Best Picture
The precursor award circuit, critical acclaim, box-office totals, and conventional wisdom all suggest that this race is narrowed down to exactly 11 titles. They are, in alphabetical order:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone
Of these 11, I would say that The Social Network, The King's Speech, The Fighter, Toy Story 3, Black Swan, and Inception are completely safe. Any of these missing the nomination would be a huge surprise. True Grit and, to a slightly lesser extent, The Kids Are All Right are also on fairly solid ground. That leaves three films fighting for two slots. Which two will get in? 127 Hours is well-respected, and has performed fairly well with various guild and critic citations. Many Academy members, though, have allegedly refused to watch it because of it's graphic nature (the plot involves a long, intimate look at how one removes an arm with a blunt knife). The Town was a large box-office success, and could slip in if voters feel like rewarding the mainstream studio choice. The antithesis of mainstream is Winter's Bone, which is a tiny indie drama about meth-cooking in Missouri. Normally, I'd say it's too small a film to make it into the 10, but, for whatever reason, people love this movie, and it's looking fairly strong. Of this group, I'd say that Winter's Bone is far and away the least deserving of a nomination, but I recognize that I'm in a very small minority here.
What about other movies outside this 11? I don't really see it happening, but stranger things have occurred on nominations morning. Blue Valentine, the art-house relationship disaster movie, could conceivably sneak in. Another Year, Mike Leigh's latest attempt at middle-class ennui, was looking like a frontrunner out of Cannes, but, for whatever reason, it's completely fallen by the wayside. Other titles with a (very small) chance include Shutter Island, The Ghost Writer, and Animal Kingdom. Any of these making it would be completely gobsmacking.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Social Network
The King's Speech
The Fighter
Toy Story 3
Black Swan
Inception
True Grit
The Kids Are All Right
Winter's Bone
127 Hours
Alternates: The Town, Blue Valentine

Now, to get a few other categories out of the way that most people don't care about...

Best Animated Film
I'd like to claim that this race is down to five movies, but last year's out-of-the-blue nomination for The Secret of Kells makes me doubt myself. Still, last year had five nominees, while this year will only have three (due to Academy rules limiting nominees based on the number of animated films released this year), so a giant surprise like last year's is unlikely. Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon will both almost definitely get in, and deservedly so. That leaves three horses for one slot. I would have originally thought that Despicable Me wouldn't have been a threat, but, lo and behold, it keeps showing up at the precursor awards. Plus, it made bank. Don't count it out. Sylvain Chomet has found success in the animated race before with his 2003 feature The Triplets of Belleville, and is now working from a script by the late Jacques Tati, which grants him huge amounts of nostalgia points. His entry, The Illusionist is a definite threat. Still, it's a very small film, and might not have been seen. Last but not least is Tangled, Disney's attempt at a return to the glory years. Tangled won critical respect and a big ol' pile of money, which is a nice ancillary benefit. And what about wierd left-field choices? I'm just not sure. Idiots and Angels? My Dog Tulip? The Dreams of Jinsha? It just sounds like I'm making titles up. I really don't know how to predict this one. Right now, I'm going to veer populist, but I can't guarantee that I won't have changed my mind come final predictions on Monday.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Alternate: The Illusionist, Despicable Me

Best Foreign Language Film
This category is insanely tough to predict, even though the Academy already narrowed the field down to a list of nine finalists. They are:
Biutiful-Mexico
Confessions-Japan
Dogtooth-Greece
Even the Rain-Spain
In a Better World-Denmark
Incendies-Canada
Life, Above All-South Africa
Outside the Law-Algeria
Simple Simon-Sweden
I must admit that I haven't seen any of these, and, as such, my predictions are essentially stolen from other,better-movied men. That being said, Susanne Bier is a regular player here, and her film, In a Better World, just won the Golden Globe in this category. She's probably in. Similarly, Incendies and Life, Above All are well-respected and loved efforts, and will probably show. But what next? Biutiful has gotten bitterly divide reviews, but is the only title of the nine that can claim any sort of stateside notoriety, which is a huge deal in this category. Outside the Law is a sort-of-sequel to Days of Glory, which was nominated here in 2005. Maybe voters will love this creative team again? Even the Rain is allegedly a well-made production, and Confessions is apparently to bizarre to resonate with the infamously boring nominating committee. Tragically, Simple Simon is right up their alley: sappy, sentimental, and altogether awful. I should go with that one, but I'm going out on a limb for Dogtooth; this Greek movie about incest and animal slaughter is not exactly the nominating committee's cup of tea, but it shocked the world by making it onto the shortlist, and is easily the most critically revered of the bunch. I think it made it this far--it'll make the final step (note: this time next week, I'll have seen Dogtooth, and will know how psychotic it actually is). I fully expect to mess these predictions up on nominations day, but for what it's worth...
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
In a Better World-Denmark
Incendies-Canada
Life, Above All-South Africa
Biutiful-Mexico
Dogtooth-Greece
Alternate: Simple Simon-Sweden, Outside the Law-Algeria

Best Documentary Feature
I'll be honest: I really don't know much of anything about this race, and, quite frankly, I don't care too much for it. Allegedly, this was a banner year for documentaries, but I wouldn't know. It was, however, a banner year for my documentary viewing, in that I saw two: Exit Through the Gift Shop and Restrepo. I'll be rooting for both of them, and will probably predict them both, just for funsies. Feel free to ignore this prediction list, as I'm pretty much just pulling things out of my butt here.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Inside Job
Waiting For Superman
Gasland
Restrepo
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Alternate: Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer, The Tillman Story

There we have it. First round done. Come back tomorrow for a look at best director and the writing categories.