Sunday, January 23, 2011

Oscar Predictions, part 4: technical categories

Alright, slightly different format today. In the major categories, it's not too hard to whittle things down to a manageable number of possibilities. In the tech categories, everything is pretty much a crapshoot. So, instead of breaking down every possibility, I'm just going to give my predictions and alternates, and offer up a couple brief thoughts below them. We've got ten categories to get through, so I'll try to be brief.
Note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood.

Art Direction
The King's Speech
Inception
True Grit
Alice in Wonderland
Shutter Island
Alternate: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Black Swan

The King's Speech and Inception are safe. True Grit probably is too. I'd like to predict Harry Potter, but I just can't make room for it. TRON or Robin Hood might show up unexpectedly. We'll see.

Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
The King's Speech
The Tempest
Burlesque
True Grit
Alternate: Secretariat, Black Swan

I'm only confident about the first two; any of the others could slip away. I wouldn't be surprised if Made in Dagenham pulled a nomination here, or Robin Hood. For a real shocker, watch for The Fighter or Inception; both contemporary, atypical possibilities that have nonetheless garnered their share of attention in this category.

Visual Effects
Inception
TRON Legacy
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Iron Man 2
Alternate: Hereafter, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World

This category has already been narrowed down by the Academy to a seven-film shortlist, which is to say that the only movies that can be nominated here are the ones I just listed. I feel pretty confident about this lineup, but Iron Man could drop out.

Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
The Wolfman
Barney's Version
Alternate: Jonah Hex, The Way Back, The Fighter, True Grit
Another seven-film finalist list here. The top two slots are probably locked, and any of the other five films could take the last spot. I tried both Jonah Hex and The Way Back in my predictions before settling for Barney's Version, if only because I assume the Academy is going to spite me and nominate a movie I've no chance of seeing before the show, thus killing my dreams of seeing all the nominated films. Curses!

Film Editing
The Social Network
Inception
The Fighter
Black Swan
The King's Speech
Alternate: 127 Hours, Shutter Island

This is one of the only tech categories I feel fairly confident about. Maybe True Grit or The Town could slip in, but I doubt it. I think we're looking at our five nominees up there.

Cinematography
True Grit
Inception
Black Swan
Shutter Island
The King's Speech
Alternate: The Social Network, 127 Hours

This one is tough. The top three slots are locked in. Shutter Island, The King's Speech, and The Social Network are neck-and-neck for the last open spots. 127 Hours could take advantage of how close the others are and slip in, as could The Way Back.

Original Score
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
How to Train Your Dragon
The Ghost Writer
Alternate: 127 Hours, Alice in Wonderland

This category is maddeningly difficult. Inception and The King's Speech are probably in. I should be more confident about The Social Network and How to Train Your Dragon, which are two of the best scores of the year, but Dragon hasn't been nearly as strong in the precursors as I'd like it to be, and I'm struggling to imagine Trent Reznor become Academy-Award Nominee Trent Reznor, even if he just won a Golden Globe for The Social Network. We'll see. That last spot is just a wild guess. I would honestly sell my first-born to see TRON take that spot, but that's, at best, incredibly far-fetched. 127 Hours could make it, but they'll probably honor A.R. Rahman in original song instead, and Alice in Wonderland could feasible get in, even though the very thought of it gives me seizures. Also possible: Never Let Me Go, Harry Potter, Get Low, The Tempest, The Town, etc., etc.

Sound Mixing
Inception
True Grit
Black Swan
TRON Legacy
How to Train Your Dragon
Alternate: The Social Network, Salt

This is a total crapshoot. The only nominee I'm sure of is Inception. Every other prediction could easily miss, and the alternates could easily crack the top five. Other movies with just as good a shot at a nomination: 127 Hours, Unstoppable, Shutter Island, The Town, Toy Story 3. I can easily imagine getting most of these predictions wrong come Tuesday morning.

Sound Effects Editing
Inception
TRON Legacy
How to Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3
127 Hours
Alternate: Salt, True Grit

Funnily enough, I feel much more confident about this category. I'm probably wrong, but I feel good about 4 out of 5 of these nominees. The alternates could knock 127 Hours out, as could Black Swan, Unstoppable, or Iron Man 2.

Original Song
"I See the Light"-Tangled
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"-Burlesque
"Shine"-Waiting For Superman
"We Belong Together"-Toy Story 3
"If I Rise"-127 Hours
Alternate: "Bound to You"-Burlesque, "Chanson Illusionist"-The Illusionist

We honestly might as well just throw darts. This branch is nigh-impossible to figure out. There might not even be five nominees, and even if there are, there's no guarantee that the generally agreed-upon frontrunners will be nominated, and there's a strong possibility that one of the nominees will be from a movie I've never heard of (remember last year, when "Loin de Paname" from Paris 36 was nominated? I still don't know what that movie is). So, I'll just play it safe, prediction-wise, and go for the five most obvious choices, and expect to be wrong. Watch out for "Coming Home" from Country Strong. Sure, the movie was awful, but that hasn't stopped this branch before.


Well, that just about wraps it up. I'll compile everything tomorrow into one post sans commentary, just to set things in stone, and then I'll be back sometime on Tuesday to discuss the actual nominees. Anybody else have predictions they'd like to share? Hunches? Hopes? Don't be shy.

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