Best Picture
The nominees:
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Ok, so The Artist is going to win. I wish I could spend a little more time analyzing, but it's just not necessary. The Artist has won every major prize, has momentum that's just about impossible, and is backed by Oscar-campaign giant Harvey Weinstein. People just love this movie, and are willing to throw every piece of possible hardware its direction. Writing about possible upsets just seems silly. Hugo is undoubtedly the Big Bad in the room, and The Descendants has rallied some support of late, but both are ultimately too weak to topple this year's champ.
Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Tree of Life
Should Have Been Here: Weekend
Best Director
The nominees:
Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist
Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne-The Descendants
Martin Scorsese-Hugo
Generally speaking, when there's a Best Picture contender as strong as The Artist, it's really, really difficult to come up with a convincing argument against the film's director being rewarded as well. Such is the case this year. Hazanivicius has a couple (fairly insignificant) knocks against him: he's French, he's not known in this country for anything other than The Artist, and Martin Scorsese's lifetime-achievement-esque campaign is waiting in the wings with the year's most-nominated film. Scorsese did win the Golden Globe over The Artist, but I really doubt that'll happen again.
Will Win-Michel Hazanivicius, The Artist
Could Win-Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Should Win-Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Should Have Been Here-Nicholas Winding Refn-Drive
Best Actor
The nominees:
Demian Bichir-A Better Life
George Clooney-The Descendants
Jean Dujardin-The Artist
Gary Oldman-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Brad Pitt-Moneyball
In what will surely become a repetitive argument, if it isn't already, it's just dangerous to bet against The Artist too much this year. Clooney looked the frontrunner at the beginning of the awards circuit, but Jean Dujardin has since surged to the top of the ladder, winning a Golden Globe, a SAG award, and a BAFTA (British equivalent of an Oscar). He's talented, memorable, and charming as all get-out. Clooney's still got a chance, but it's not a great one. I'd love for some residual Brad Pitt love to surprise us all Sunday night, but that's not very likely.
Will Win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Could Win: George Clooney, The Descendants
Should Win: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Should Have Been Here: Ryan Gosling, Drive
Best Actress
The nominees:
Glenn Close-Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis-The Help
Rooney Mara-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn
Finally, something that at least looks like a race (however small a race it may be). Ignore Close and Mara; they won't score here. This is a dead heat between Viola Davis and Meryl Streep. Davis is in the lead: she's in a well-liked best picture nominee, everyone loves the performance (even the people who don't like The Help), and she's seen as a respected actress finally getting her due. All Meryl's got going for her is the "she hasn't won in 29 years" argument, which just won't be compelling enough to snare her the gold this year. Watch Michelle Williams: if Davis and Streep are close enough to cancel each other out, Williams' Marilyn Monroe burlesque will be the performance that benefits.
Will Win: Viola Davis, The Help
Could Win: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Should Win: Viola Davis, The Help
Should Have Been Here: Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill-Moneyball
Nick Nolte-Warrior
Christopher Plummer-Beginners
Max Von Sydow-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Battle of the Elderly--2012: Extremely Locked and Incredibly Obvious. Branagh, Hill, and Nolte are all out: they're too not-showy, detested, and drunk, respectively. This comes down to Plummer and Von Sydow. Ok, who am I kidding, this comes down to just Christopher Plummer. I've heard murmurs of Von Sydow stealing the "let's reward him before he we bury him" sentiment, but it just isn't happening. Sorry, Bergman films. Von Sydow's career will have to be the reward instead.
Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Could Win: Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Should Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Should Have Been Here: Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees:
Berenice Bejo-The Artist
Jessica Chastain-The Help
Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer-The Help
Like Supporting Actor, this one's all but decided. Octavia Spencer's going to walk to the podium on a carpet of poop-filled dessert. You could argue that having two women from The Help will cause a vote split, opening the way for The Artist, but that argument didn't work last year applied to The Fighter, and I don't see it working this year either. Similarly, you could argue that The Artist's steamroller is going to flatten everything in its way. Possibly, but if The Artist fails to land anywhere, it'll be in this category.
Will Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Could Win: Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Should Win: Jessica Chastain, The Help
Should Have Been Here: Rose Byrne, Bridesmaids
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees:
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Ignore three nominees right away--Bridesmaids, Margin Call, and A Separation are just along for the ride. This category comes down to the inevitable (albeit silent) Best Picture winner trading blows with a universally loved witty, verbal Woody Allen script. I wouldn't fault you for picking The Artist here: the best picture winner hasn't lost in screenplay since Million Dollar Baby in 2004. That being said, I'm giving Allen the edge. To most voters, screenplay=dialogue, and The Artist has, you guessed it, no dialogue, whereas Midnight in Paris sounds and plays like every writer's dizziest daydream come true. Either film could take the win, however.
Will Win: Midnight in Paris
Could Win: The Artist
Should Win: Midnight in Paris*
Should Have Been Here: Weekend
*note that I haven't seen A Separation, so "should win" here means "should win out of the four nominees I've seen."
Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
I imagine this is a three-way race. Despite their relative merits, The Ides of March and Tinker Tailor won't have the support to go all the way. That leaves three choices: The Descendants sounds fairly literate in the theater, and is (apparently) a loved film that voters might want to recognize somewhere, but its script is the source of most of the film's problems. Hugo is, arguably, the best picture runner-up, which has to help, but it's admittedly not much of a writer's showcase. Finally, Moneyball is a fantastic, verbal script, and Moneyball seems to have more support than originally anticipated. So who to choose? It's a nail-biter, and any of these three winning wouldn't surprise me, but I've got to give the slight edge to former winner Alexander Payne, whose Descendants script has experienced a recent uptick in popularity, winning the Writers Guild and USC Scripter awards.
Will Win: The Descendants
Could Win: Moneyball
Should Win: Moneyball
Should Have Been Here: Drive
Art Direction
The nominees:
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
This award seems like a more obvious pick than it ought to. Hugo's got to win here, right? It's a beloved film and the design elements are absolutely stunning. What it's got going against it is The Artist and all its momentum, which you'll find is the case for at least half of these craft categories. I think Hugo's bright colors and huge sets will KO The Artist's subtler designs. If there is, however, a solid challenger, it's gotta be Harry Potter: surely some Academy members will feel like giving the whole series a pat on the back for its consistently wonderful production design.
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Should Win: Hugo
Should Have Been Here: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Costume Design
The nominees:
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
This category is really tough, in that all five movies could conceivably win. Anonymous fits this branch's recent paradigm, which is to say that it's the sort of British royalty costume porn that has been rewarded in this category with only one exception since 2006. The Artist is impressive and the Best Picture front-runner, but black-and-white movies don't triumph here (voters like pretty colors). The pretty color argument works in favor of Hugo, whose costumes are bright, fun, and memorable. If voters feel like going for period British costumes but don't feel like voting for a terrible movie, they can take the classy route and go for Jane Eyre, but the film might be too small to be remembered or seen by enough voters. Finally, W.E. won the Costume Designers award, but I just don't think enough Academy Members will have seen and/or liked this movie to give it a statue. This is easily one of the toughest calls of the night, but I'm going with pretty colors for the win.
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: Anonymous
Should Win: Jane Eyre
Should Have Been Here: Immortals
Visual Effects
The nominees:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Real Steel
I'd like to think this race is all sewn up; those Weta-made apes are so impressive. That being said, I feel like this category is primed for an upset. Here's an easy place to give a consolation prize to Harry Potter without toppling a more well-loved title, or, if voters are feeling bland, they could just vote for the only prestige flick in the lineup and go with Hugo. I think I'll stick with the monkeys, but I could very well be wrong.
Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Should Have Been Here: The Tree of Life
Makeup
The nominees:
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady
Here's an easy one. Generally, the Academy loves transformative elderly work, and The Iron Lady provides plenty of that. Harry Potter's got a chance to steal, but I figure Meryl Streep's old-lady teeth will carry the day here.
Will Win: The Iron Lady
Could Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Should Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Should Have Been Here: Immortals
Film Editing
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Here's another category where any nominee could take it. Generally, Best Picture threats take this category, which helps The Artist, The Descendants, and Hugo, but when they don't it goes to a well-made action/genre pic, which helps The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and every now and again they go with the structurally complex work, which helps Moneyball, and they do love their veteran editors, which helps Hugo. So it's tough to pick one, is the point. When this category provides a tough choice, always go with the Best Picture frontrunner. It's the safe guess.
Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Artist
Should Have Been Here: Drive
Cinematography
The nominees:
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Like many of the craft categories this year, cinematography provides a difficult choice with no clear winners. The Artist is gorgeous, but is black and white, and (as said before) voters love pretty colors. Hugo has plenty of bright colors and looks very nice, but might not be overtly showy enough. The Tree of Life is clearly the best, with the most eye-catching lensing, but it might be too weird for the Academy, and Tree cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki has a great record for losing at the last second. A lot of people (myself included) find War Horse's cinematography fairly ridiculous, but it does have lots of sunsets and exterior shots and the like, which uneducated voters love. So who takes it? I wish I could vote for the best, but I just don't think it'll happen. I'll probably kill myself if War Horse wins, though.
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: The Tree of Life
Should Win: The Tree of Life
Should Have Been Here: Drive
Original Score
The nominees:
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse
This one's a far easier call. Scoring a silent movie is a very difficult endeavor which makes The Artist completely unique in this category. Howard Shore already has a few Oscars, so they probably won't be falling over themselves to reward Hugo, and John Williams is really going to have to knock things out of the park to get another Oscar, which takes War Horse and Tintin out of the running.
Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Artist
Should Have Been Here: Hanna
Sound Mixing
The nominees:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Ok, so Dragon Tattoo is too subtle and prickly to win. Ditto Moneyball. I'd say Transformers had a shot, but the Academy obviously hates this franchise. If the first one couldn't win, this one certainly won't. That means this is down to Hugo and War Horse. War Horse has all the elements this branch typically goes for: war, horse, loud noises, etc., but for some reason, Hugo has become the front-runner, winning most of the sound prizes out there. It's a decidedly atypical winner (ie it's not very loud), but I think it's got this category in the bag.
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: War Horse
Should Win: War Horse
Should Have Been Here: The Tree of Life
Sound Editing
The nominees:
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Ok, pretty much it's the same argument here as the other sound category. Only difference is that I can very easily imagine a split between Hugo and War Horse, i.e. each movie takes one sound award. If War Horse gets one, it's sound editing. That being said, I'm just not confident enough in a split to take War Horse here.
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: War Horse
Should Win: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Should Have Been Here: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Original Song
The nominees:
"Man or Muppet"-The Muppets
"Real in Rio"-Rio
This category is so silly this year. Muppets win easily.
Will Win: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets
Could Win: "Real in Rio"-Rio
Should Win: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets
Should Have Been Here: "Pictures in My Head"-The Muppets
Animated Film
The nominees:
A Cat in Paris
Chico and Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
This one needs no commentary. No way anything other than Rango wins.
Will Win: Rango
Could Win: Puss in Boots
Should Win: Rango
Should Have Been Here: Winnie the Pooh
Foreign Language Film
The nominees:
Bullhead-Belgium
Footnote-Israel
In Darkness-Poland
Monsieur Lazhar-Canada
A Separation-Iran
I'd love to say A Separation, hailed as a modern masterpiece, has this in the bag. If this category's good for one thing, though, it's giving modern masterpieces the finger. So what could take the gold? Footnote won an award at Cannes, but I don't think it's emotional enough. In Darkness is about the Holocaust, which this category loves, but it might be a little too grim for voters (they like their Holocausts inspiring). Monsieur Lazhar is apparently emotionally uplifting, which is pretty crucial here. And Bullhead, which is apparently about castration, can probably safely be ruled out. I honestly think A Separation can take the win here, if only because none of its competitors have enough support to get rid of it. None of them check enough sentimental/manipulative/bad movie boxes, so A Separation wins by default. I bet they'll hate giving this movie to a good movie for once.
Will Win: A Separation
Could Win: Monsieur Lazhar
Should Win: (Abstain) ( I haven't seen any of these, sorry)
Documentary Feature
The nominees:
Hell and Back Again
If A Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
This category is insanely difficult, not least because I've only seen two of these. Every nominee's got a good argument for it, but I'll rule out a couple: If a Tree Falls is too boring and Pina is too weird. Hell and Back Again might win, but I hope it doesn't, because it's pretty routine and not terribly well-made. Paradise Lost is probably the fruntrunner, given its relevance in the news (the murder case it's been profiling was just acquitted), but I'm going with Undefeated. It may be low-key, but it's got an emotional punch and it's been campaigning hard recently.
Will Win: Undefeated
Could Win: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Should Win: (abstain. again.)
There we have it. For those keeping score at home, here are the movies I'm predicting to score more than once:
The Artist-5
Hugo-5
The Help-2
We'll see how things go, I suppose! Any last minute predictions/preferences?
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