Oscar Predictions, Part 1: Picture/Director

I'm long enough removed from my semi-regular blogging days that sitting down to do something like this feels totally bizarre. However, I'm going to continue for two reasons: 1) Tradition, dammit. I've been writing Oscar predictions online for 8 years now (ohmygod I'm getting older, aren't I?). 2) I saw this blog's page views for the first time today, I'm apparently somewhat popular in Belgium. Like, 2,000 views popular. Which is utterly mind-blowing to me. Which is so completely fantastical that I'm not entirely sure it's not just some silly software error. Anyway, for  the sake of my probably-fictional Belgian following, I'll persevere.
So Oscar nominations are this Thursday, the 10th, aka Christmas morning for silly people like myself. Savvy readers will notice that I'm starting my usual 5-day series a little late, so I'm afraid a couple of posts will have to be mashed together for me to wrap everything up by Wednesday night. Today we'll do Picture, Director, and the miscellaneous categories that no one will follow. Tomorrow we'll dive into acting and screenplays, Tuesday will be craft categories, And I'll sum everything up with my final predictions on Wednesday. Obviously, as always, I reserve the right to change any prediction, switch any order, or just be as fickle as I want up to midnight the night before the Oscars. An interesting factor this year: the nominations are 2 weeks earlier than usual, which means the usual horrific bombardment of precursor film awards haven't all happened yet. Practically speaking, this means that predicting will be harder, because these precursors essentially function as copycats-cum-barometers forecasting the Academy's tastes. So I'll do my best, but no guarantees.

Sweet kettle of corn, I've already kicked Brevity's teeth in, haven't I? Bear with me, I only do this twice a year.

Best Picture
Remember the Academy's rule change: there will be anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees, depending on how many movies manage to secure 5% of all the #1 votes on Academy ballots. Which makes this category kind of ridiculous, from a predictions standpoint. First things first:
Group 1: These movies are getting nominated, barring sudden and unexpected Apocalypse:
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
The group title pretty much sums it up, right? I'd be completely shocked if any of these movies fell out. So that's 6 slots taken, which leaves room for four more potential nominees,which brings us to:
Group 2: Oh man, I don't even know, just throw a dart or something:
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Here's where it gets tough, in that each of these four have incredibly compelling arguments for inclusion, as well as some inescapable arguments against. Amour is a critically beloved heartbreaker from a respected auteur whose work has never before been so accessible, but is not too widely seen and might be too grim/foreign for the traditionally timid academy. Beasts of the Southern Wild is just as beloved and equally artistically adventurous, but it's a tiny, tiny movie. Seriously, this film was made in the woods starring a six-year-old and the baker from across the street. Don't count on the Academy remembering that this film's the single most deserving option on the whole damn list. Django Unchained: director Quentin Tarantino's got an awfully complicated love-hate thing going with the Academy, and I've no idea where this one will fall. The precursors/critics seem to suggest the love-side winning out, but who's to say? Finally, we have Wes Anderson's Moonrise Kingdom, which may feel too slight for voters to include it in the top 10, but man does this film have passion behind it, and that's really all you need to succeed under the current rules.
Finally, because I can't make things too easy:
Group 3: These movies can probably sneak up on ninjas
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
The Master
Skyfall
Though I don't have them in the top 10, these three films easily have the passionate fanbases and precursor support necessary to steal a spot from any of the movies from Group 2. Do I plan on that happening? Not at all. Could it happen? So much, yes.
So, all that said, the conclusion:
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Lincoln
Argo
Les Miserables
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Alternates: The Master, Skyfall
That's right y'all, 10 nominees. I'm probably being totally crazy and will probably chicken out and drop one from the list by Wednesday (sadly, Beasts will be the one to go), but for now let's all just roll with it.

Best Director
Since there are only five nominees, this category's a bit simpler. To begin with, there are three mortal locks: Ben Affleck for Argo, Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty, and Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. These three are in for sure. Next, we've got five directors wrestling for two slots:
-Michael Haneke, Amour: I love, love, love the idea of my beloved Haneke finally scoring with the Academy, and this film has certainly been his best chance to date. That being said, I'm not sure Amour has the steam to pull a slot from the other, more high-profile films competing.
-Tom Hooper, Les Miserables: Similarly, I would love, love, love to see Tom Hooper develop a fatal allergy to cameras and film-making in general. Given Hooper's Golden Globe snub in this category, I might not be the only one. Plenty of people have complained about Tom Hooper's (mis?)direction of Les Mis, but it could also be a big-enough juggernaut to sweep him along for the ride.
-Ang Lee, Life of Pi: Pi's been struggling to find a foothold lately, generally failing to find the widespread support it was assumed to have. Still, this film is definitely viewed as a director's achievement, and Lee might slide in purely on degree of difficulty.
-David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook: Russell could certainly be a default choice, if voters feel like honoring a good film without stepping up for a particularly daring or interesting artistic statement. I'm hoping voters will go for something more impressive, but one never knows.
-Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained: Again, Django could be loved or hated; it could get nothing, or it could hit double digits. So I've included Tarantino here just to hedge my bets.
-Other remote possibilities: Really, the only  threat I see on the horizon is Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master, which is a film which has just not taken on with most awards bodies. Stranger things have happened, though.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Steven Spielberg-Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow-Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck-Argo
Ang Lee-Life of Pi
Tom Hooper-Les Miserables
Alternates: David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook, Quentin Tarantino-Django Unchained

Ok. Now I'm going to do some category dumping (and lose 9/10 of my readers) and predict the categories that most people won't care about: namely Animated, Foreign Language, and Documentary films.

Animated Film
With the increase of quality big-budget fare as well as the Academy's recent embrace of foreign/indie animation, this category is becoming awfully tricky to predict. The key is to strike the right balance between financial success, artistic integrity, and out-of-left-field weirdness. So let's start with what we do know: big studio successes Brave, Wreck-it Ralph, and Frankenweenie are most likely in. Brave may not have the regular Pixar stranglehold on the win, but it's solid enough for a nomination, while the latter two have been sweeping up the lion's share of critics prizes. So what else then? On the commercial side, we've got a few choices. ParaNorman was well-received, but might have been too much of a box-office flop to score here. Ditto Rise of the Guardians, which was advertised as a much bigger deal than it turned out to be. Other big-budget films (The Lorax? Madagascar 3?) were just too disliked to make an impression on the race. Conversely, the indie/foreign side of the equation is packed to bursting. Films that could hop in: From Up on Poppy Hill, a non-Miyazaki Studio Ghibli effort, A Liar's Autobiography: The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman, a biopic (obviously), The Rabbi's Cat, which is apparently quite witty, Le Tableau/The Painting, whose allegedly gorgeous animation could strike a chord with voters, and Zarafa, which is really just a series of letters which I have been assured do represent an actual movie. Whatever you say, other bloggers. I'm handicapped here, in that I've hardly heard of most of these littler movies, let alone seen them, which makes it hard to evaluate their respective assets.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Brave
Wreck-it Ralph
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Le Tableau/The Painting
Alternates: Rise of the Guardians, The Rabbi's Cat

Foreign Language Film
Speaking of films I've never seen....It's hard to predict this category, in that most of these will never open anywhere near where I live. Oh well. The Academy has already released a nine-film shortlist of eligible submissions:
Amour-Austria
Beyond the Hills-Romania
The Deep-Iceland
The Intouchables-France
Kon-Tiki-Norway
No-Chile
A Royal Affair-Denmark
Sister-Switzerland
War Witch-Canada
Ever since Cannes in May, The Intouchables and Amour have been fighting for foreign-language prizes, so I expect they're both in, but for very different reasons (Amour because it's stark and artistic and respected, Intouchables because it makes everyone smile a lot). If any of these films has been stealing the previous two's thunder, it's A Royal Affair so count Denmark's entry in as well. What of the other two slots? Beyond the Hills' inclusion on this list is most likely an apology to director Cristian Mungiu, whose 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days infamously failed to be nominated in this category. Don't expect this one to go any farther. The Deep and Kon-Tiki are both Scandinavian entries dealing with survival in very cold water; one of them might make it, but I highly doubt both of them will. Kon-Tiki is very big and obvious, which this branch loves, and  is apparently Norway's most expensive film to date. It's probably in. Which leaves one spot for three artistically interesting films: No, War Witch, and Sister. No's TV-esque aesthetic might turn voters off, and War Witch might be too grim/brutal for voters (who may have spent all their grim-tolerance on Amour), which leaves one film left to sneak in and grab a spot.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Intouchables-France
Amour-Austria
A Royal Affair-Denmark
Kon-Tiki-Norway
Sister-Switzerland
Alternates: No-Chile, War Witch-Canada

Documentary Feature
Here's the category that, annually, I care the least about, if only because it's very, very hard for someone who doesn't live in New York City or LA to see any of the eligible films. So I won't spend much time analyzing. Here's what I do know: The Gatekeepers is both acclaimed and timely, Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God is about molestation, which this group loves to nominate, and Searching for Sugar Man is apparently a frontrunner, even though it's a music documentary, which this group normally hates. Watch out for surprise critics darling How to Survive a Plague, crowd-hit Chasing Ice, and (as a longshot), Jafar Panahi's house-arrest feat This is Not a Film.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Gatekeepers
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God:
Searching for Sugar Man
The Invisible War
How to Survive a Plague
Alternates: Chasing Ice, This is Not a Film

Well, that wraps it up for today. Tune in tomorrow (which really isn't very far away) as a dig into the rest of the major categories: acting and screenplays!