Oscar Predictions, Part 3: Craft Categories

Ok, last big prediction salvo before Oscar's High Holy Day. Today I'll tackle the craft categories. There's ten of them, and the all of them can be fairly wacky to predict and almost impossible to analyze, so I'll probably keep my commentary fairly brief. Let's get started, shall we?

Predictions after the jump (oh man, I know how to make jumps, watch our world)


Production Design
Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Skyfall
Alternates: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Life of Pi

The top three are almost definitely in. Les Mis and Lincoln are best picture frontrunners/epic period films, and Anna Karenina is a russian nesting doll of innovatively crafted sets that all fold into each other. Though Django is fairly reliant on exteriors, its headily imagined interiors, coupled with the fact that its production designer J. Michael Riva recently passed away, should be enough to secure its spot. Which leaves Skyfall; an admittedly silly prediction, but I always try to act on at least one strange impulse. Don't underestimate fantasy contenders The Hobbit, Life of Pi, and Cloud Atlas, or best picture contenders Argo and Moonrise Kingdom.

Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Mirror Mirror
A Royal Affair
Alternates: Lincoln, Snow White and the Huntsman

I'm not at all confident here. While Anna Karenina and Les Mis can rest easy, and Django's ridiculous colors should make it in, the other two are just guesses. I've got my fingers crossed for Mirror Mirror's late, great Eiko Ishioka, whose fantastic designs should score her a posthumous nomination. And this branch can never pass up well-executed royalty garb, hence A Royal Affair's positioning. I really ought to have Lincoln in the top five, though. Also, don't be surprised if Cloud Atlas sneaks in here; it's not a well-liked film, but its costumes have been praised by plenty of precursor organizations.

Visual Effects
Life of Pi
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Avengers
Prometheus
Cloud Atlas
Alternates: The Dark Knight Rises, Snow White and the Huntsman

Big-budget extravaganzas carry the day here. The top three are definitely in. I imagine the other two are pretty well placed also, though if anything's going to fall out, it's Cloud Atlas. Remember last year when Real Steel was nominated, which essentially no one predicted? This branch tends to throw curveballs. Incidentally, the Academy already narrowed this category down to a list of ten finalists. The other three I've yet to mention who are still in contention are The Amazing Spider-Man, John Carter, and Skyfall. Any of them could get in, but I'm not expecting it.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Lincoln
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Looper
Alternates: Les Miserables, Men in Black III

I'm being silly by not placing Les Mis in the top 3. Oh well. I can't help but think that Looper will show up somewhere, and since I don't see it scoring in Screenplay, this is its next best shot. The Hobbit is probably vulnerable as well, and could fall to Rick Baker's creations for Men in Black. Like the Visual Effects category, we've already gotten a list of seven finalists; the others are Hitchcock and Snow White and the Huntsman. I desperately hope Hitchcock's doughy prosthetics miss here, but one never knows. Snow White could also score a surprise nomination here, although I've no idea why.

Film Editing
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Alternates: Silver Linings Playbook, Skyfall

Neither Les Mis nor Life of Pi are particularly safe, even though I just can't see anything else breaking into the top five. This category tends to love Best Picture hopefuls, so read these nominees as a barometer of what will do well in the big categories. As such, I should probably be predicting Silver Linings Playbook, but since when do romantic comedies get technical nods? Since mostly never, basically. Django Unchained could threaten here, but given its somewhat unformed nature, I wouldn't count on it. If the branch is feeling super adventurous (which they never, never are), they might spring for Cloud Atlas or Anna Karenina: two editing marvels without much critical respect.

Cinematography
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Skyfall
The Master
Alternates: Django Unchained, Anna Karenina

I feel pretty confident about this lineup. The Master could slip away quite easily, but I'm holding onto it for now. Also desperately clinging to the hope that this branch will do the right thing and snub Les Mis, an ungainly eyesore if there ever was one. Don't count it out though; even cinematographers make stupid decisions sometimes.

Original Score
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Argo
Anna Karenina
Cloud Atlas
Alternates: Zero Dark Thirty, Beasts of the Southern Wild 

If I were being smart, I'd have Zero Dark Thirty in the top five, but I have to believe that one of the three really innovative and fantastic scores this year (Beasts, Cloud Atlas, The Master) finds a home here. I'm guessing Cloud Atlas, which is the most traditionally scored and recognizable of the bunch. I suppose if the branch is feeling like giving us all flashback, they'll nominate The Hobbit here, but that film relies far too much on the original trilogy's music cues to shoulder past other, stronger films here.

Sound Mixing
Les Miserables
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
The Avengers
Django Unchained
Alternates: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Life of Pi

As usual, the sound categories are just about the hardest categories to predict. I feel sure about Les Mis, Skyfall, and Zero Dark Thirty. The others? Meh, we'll see. Best Picture heavyweights Argo and/or Lincoln could slip in, although it would be more of a "hey, we liked your movie, see? See?!" nomination than a "hey, we liked your sound work" nomination, which is always frustrating as hell. Summer hits Prometheus and The Dark Knight Rises could find a place here, but Prometheus has been fading and most people complained about some of Batman's dubious sound choices (Bane's voice on every speaker, all the time? Really?).

Sound Editing
The Avengers
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
The Dark Knight Rises
Life of Pi
Alternates: Django Unchained, Prometheus

I'm well and truly screwed in this category. Honestly, I won't guarantee any of the top five actually making the cut. They could easily be supplanted by the alternates, or The Hobbit, or Les Mis, or Flight, or The Impossible, or some other film I'm not even considering (ex. Unstoppable's out-of-the-blue nomination a couple years ago, Wanted's duo of sound nominations, etc.). I fully expect to be surprised here come Thursday morning.

Original Song
"Suddenly"-Les Miserables
"Touch the Sky"-Brave
"From Here to the Moon and Back"-Joyful Noise
"Ancora Qui"-Django Unchained
"Skyfall"-Skyfall
Alternates: "Learn Me Right"-Brave, "Still Alive"-Paul Williams Still Alive

These nominations are always totally nonsensical and bizarre. We might not even have five nominees, or the nominees could all be from movies none of us have ever heard of. Who knows with this branch? Therefore, I'll just say that those five look as good as any (though I'm probably calling the wrong song for Brave), and I'm not nearly as confident as the next guy that Adele's Bond theme will get nominated.


Well that's it. Sigh of relief, everyone, the worst is over. I'll be back tomorrow to do my *final* final predictions (which will essentially just be a list), but until then, what do we think? Am I going to set a record for least correct predictions this year? Sometimes it feels like it, honestly.