Oscar Predictions, Part 4: Final Predictions

Ok, last time. In less than 12 hours, the Academy will be announcing their nominations, which means in less than 12 hours all this guesswork will have been totally silly and useless. Yay! That's the way I like it. So here's the deal: I'm just going to offer up my final predictions in order of likelihood, sans commentary. Since posting my predictions I've changed a few things: I did indeed take Beasts of the Southern Wild out of Best Picture (turns out I didn't predict it for any other category, and no way it's only nomination is the big one), changed my Best Director alternate to Michael Haneke for Amour, moved Rachel Weisz into my top 5 for Best Actress, changed Visual Effects to include Snow White and the Huntsman, and got rid of The Avengers in Sound Mixing in favor of Lincoln. I know, lots of changes. It's a really tough year for predictions.
Note: I know that I haven't really committed any opinions on what I actually think deserves to be nominated, but I'll be putting up my 'best of 2012" list sometime in February. It's just too hard for someone who doesn't live in New York or LA to catch up with all of the movies worth seeing in time to make a timely year-end list. But know that if I could guarantee any nomination tomorrow, it would be Beasts of the Southern Wild for, well, anything, and if I could prevent any nomination, it would be Tom Hooper's director nod for Les Mis (though if that movie gets nominated for Cinematography I'll jump off a bridge, Javert-style).

See them all after the jump...

Best Picture
Lincoln
Argo
Les Miserables
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Amour
Alternate: Beasts of the Southern Wild

Director
Steven Spielberg-Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow-Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck-Argo
Ang Lee-Life of Pi
Tom Hooper-Les Miserables
Alternate: Michael Haneke-Amour

Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln
John Hawkes-The Sessions
Denzel Washington-Flight
Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Joaquin Phoenix-The Master

Actress
Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts-The Impossible
Emmanuelle Riva-Amour
Rachel Weisz-The Deep Blue Sea
Alternate: Marion Cotillard-Rust and Bone

Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln
Robert De Niro-Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin-Argo
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master
Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained
Alternate: Javier Bardem-Skyfall

Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway-Les Miserables
Sally Field-Lincoln
Helen Hunt-The Sessions
Amy Adams-The Master
Maggie Smith-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Alternate: Nicole Kidman-The Paperboy

Original Screenplay
Zero Dark Thirty
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Amour
The Master
Alternate: Looper

Adapted Screenplay
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Alternate: Beasts of the Southern Wild

Production Design
Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Skyfall
Alternate: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Mirror Mirror
A Royal Affair
Alternate: Lincoln

Visual Effects
Life of Pi
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Avengers
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
Alternate: Cloud Atlas

Makeup
Lincoln
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Looper
Alternate: Les Miserables

Film Editing
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Alternate: Silver Linings Playbook

Cinematography
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
The Master
Alternate: Django Unchained

Original Score
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Argo
Anna Karenina
Cloud Atlas
Alternate: Zero Dark Thirty

Sound Mixing
Les Miserables
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Alternate: The Avengers

Sound Editing
Skyfall
The Avengers
Zero Dark Thirty
The Dark Knight Rises
Life of Pi
Alternate: Django Unchained

Original Song
"Suddenly"-Les Miserables
"Touch the Sky"-Brave
"From Here to the Moon and Back"-Joyful Noise
"Ancora Qui"-Django Unchained
"Skyfall"-Skyfall
Alternate: "Learn Me Right"-Brave

Animated Film
Brave
Wreck-It Ralph
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Le Tableau
Alternate: Rise of the Guardians

Foreign Language Film
The Intouchables-France
Amour-Austria
A Royal Affair-Denmark
Kon-Tiki-Norway
Sister-Switzerland
Alternate: No-Chile

Documentary Feature
The Gatekeepers
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
Searching for Sugar Man
The Invisible War
How to Survive a Plague
Alternate: Chasing Ice

Well, that's that. Tune in tomorrow to see what actually happens!