Final 2012 Oscar Predictions: Fly-By-Night Edition

Seriously, you guys.
You guys, seriously.

I don't think I'm exaggerating or overreacting when I say that this has easily been the most unpredictable, tumultuous, bizarrely satisfying Oscar season in the ten years that I've been following them (....ohmygod I am getting way too old). The process leading up to nominations was exciting, the nominations themselves were both hugely surprising and (even more surprisingly) largely well-deserved. And the competition for some races, even the big ones, has raged; there's an invigorating lack of obvious front-runners in so many categories.
Basically what I'm trying to say is that I'm probably going to get most of these wrong, and I'm going to love it. So take these with a grain of salt. Don't put too much money on anything I say. Pretty much I'm going to be throwing darts and hoping for the best, and I wouldn't have it any other way. So let's get to it!



Best Picture
The nominees:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Ok, so admittedly the ambiguity and craziness I was just raving about probably won't be found in this category. Argo has become a massive awards steamroller, taking just about every major industry award out there. Any other year, I'd say it's a done deal. That shocking Ben-Affleck-for-director snub, however, means Argo has some history against it, in that only three films have  ever won best picture without a director nod as well (and two of those happened in the 30s when the Academy was still figuring itself out). So I'm still going to call it for Argo, but don't be shocked if something steals. That something, in all likelihood, would be Silver Linings Playbook--it's popular, it's feel-good, it's clearly loved by the actors, who make up 1/5 of the Academy. Outside possibilities exist for Life of Pi and Lincoln, but Lincoln has tanked recently and Life of Pi might never had the momentum to begin with.
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Beasts of the Southern Wild
Should Have Been Here: Cloud Atlas

Director
The nominees:
Michael Haneke-Amour
Ang Lee-Life of Pi
David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg-Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin-Beasts of the Southern Wild

This could be the hardest category to call, and I love it. The problem is that Ben Affleck has won just about every directing award there is to win, which means that we haven't been able to see which of these other men could get some love. But Affleck's out, so it's got to be one of them. Really, it's probably down to three: Russell could get it because Silver Linings Playbook is loved, but it's not a showy director's piece, and Russell's got a bad personal reputation, which hurts in a close race. Spielberg could get it because Lincoln is respected, but it seems like it's respected because it's not a typical piece of Spielberg-ness, which could hurt, and really, is there much love at all for Lincoln? Ang Lee could get it: Life of Pi is clearly a director's film, and an incredibly challenging piece of work to direct. Still, I don't know if Pi has the momentum it needs. With all this uncertainty, I'd love for Haneke or Zeitlin to swoop in, but that would frankly take a miracle. I think it's between Russell and Lee.
Will Win: Ang Lee-Life of Pi
Could Win: David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Benh Zeitlin-Beasts of the Southern Wild
Should Have Been Here: Joe Wright-Anna Karenina

Actor
The nominees:
Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln
Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix-The Master
Denzel Washington-Flight

Daniel Day-Lewis wins this in a walk. Pretty much the easiest call of the night. Anything else happening would be a monumental upset.
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln
Could Win: Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix-The Master
Should Have Been Here: Tom Holland-The Impossible

Actress
The nominees:
Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva-Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis-Beasts of the Southern Wildi
Naomi Watts-The Impossible

I feel like this is a two-horse race: Jennifer Lawrence as the new 'it' girl vs. Emmanuelle Riva as cinematic history incarnate. Though most people who've seen Amour agree that Riva has no contest for giving the best performance, there's a good chance many voters still haven't seen the film. Plus, the academy is comprised of predominantly older men, who like to use best actress to put the new hot young thing on a pedestal, rather than the 86-year old French woman. Not to say that Lawrence's performance isn't fantastic--really, I think this category is the strongest of the year, in that every single nominee is wholly deserving. If Lawrence and Riva compete too hard, a sneaky third party could take the win--Chastain, or even (improbably) Wallis.
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook
Could Win: Emmanuelle Riva-Amour
Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva-Amour
Should Have Been Here: Marion Cotillard-Rust and Bone

Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Alan Arkin-Argo
Robert De Niro-Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master
Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln
Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained

This is both the most boring and most interesting category. Most boring in that all the nominees have already won before, and none of them give a performance so good that it demands to be rewarded. Most interesting in that this is the only category in which one can realistically argue that every single nominee could win. Arkin isn't showy, but he's in the best picture frontrunner, and people will want to vote for it outside of the big race. De Niro hasn't won any major awards, but he's been campaigning hard, and could easily ride a wave of "he's back after 20 years and he's actually trying this time!" sentiment to victory. Judging purely from quality, Hoffman might be the most worthy nominee, and he's essentially a co-lead which helps, but not too many people are fond of his film. Jones gives possibly the flashiest performance, and won the Screen Actors Guild award, but Lincoln is fading fast, and Jones has been infamously grumpy throughout the process, which will hurt in a close race. Waltz is essentially giving the same performance he gave in his last Oscar-winning effort, but he's also a co-lead and in a well-liked movie. Plus, he won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA (British equivalent of the Oscars). Really, anyone could walk away with it, and I think I'll be surprised no matter who wins.
Will Win: Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained
Could Win: Robert De Niro-Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln
Should Have Been Here: Michael Fassbender-Prometheus

Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Amy Adams-The Master
Sally Field-Lincoln
Anne Hathaway-Les Miserables
Helen Hunt-The Sessions
Jacki Weaver-Silver Linings Playbook

Anne Hathaway wins. Easy. In another year I might buy into rumors of a backlash, but this year, who would benefit from anti-Anne sentiment? Field's already won 2 Oscars, there's no way she's getting a third, no one likes The Master or The Sessions enough, and Jacki Weaver isn't in her film enough/have enough showy scenes. Nope, this is an easy call.
Will Win: Anne Hathaway-Les Miserables
Could Win: Sally Field-Lincoln
Should Win: Anne Hathaway-Les Miserables
Should Have Been Here: Nicole Kidman-The Paperboy

Original Screenplay
The nominees:
Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Another crazy difficult category to call. When nominations came out I'd have told you that Zero Dark Thirty had this sewn up, but the whole torture-controversy thing hit it hard, and it's sinking in just about every race. Though it still has a chance here, I'm not confident. Tarantino is well-liked, as is Django, but is the Academy going to give him a second Oscar for what is arguably his most poorly written film? It's definitely possible, and it just might be where the smart money is. I'm going to gamble on Amour though--those nominations in Picture and Director show that it has lots of passionate supporters, and I think the Academy will want to reward it with something more than Foreign Film.
Will Win: Amour
Could Win: Django Unchained
Should Win: Amour
Should Have Been Here: The Cabin in the Woods

Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

One would think that Argo has this all wrapped up, right? Probably so. Still, if Argo is going to show weakness, it'll be here. Silver Linings is a legitimate danger to its crown, and industry respect for Tony Kushner and his script could still push Lincoln over the edge. Hey, even Life of Pi has a chance. ...All that being said, I don't see Argo missing here.
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Beasts of the Southern Wild
Should Have Been Here: Cloud Atlas

Production Design
The nominees:
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Another insanely difficult category. Anna Karenina obeys the 'most=best' rule that the design categories normally follow, and also happens to be fantastic, but I don't know if it's loved enough to muscle past all those best picture nominees. Life of Pi is visually spectacular, but I'm not sure how many voters will attribute that to the cinematography rather than the largely computer-generated production design. As a historical epic, Les Mis has a more-than-fair chance, but its aesthetic hardly flatters its design elements. Lincoln could also have a chance, but it's a little too (purposefully) drab to be successful here, barring an unlikely Lincoln sweep. So where's that leave us? I'm not sure, except that I know the winner won't be The Hobbit.
Will Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: Anna Karenina
Should Win: Anna Karenina
Should Have Been Here: Cloud Atlas

Costume Design
The nominees:
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman

This one's a little easier. Anna Karenina absolutely fits the profile of recent Costume Design winners, and should take this award easily. Possible competition comes from trying to throw a bone to Les Mis, or from voters who want to honor the late, great Eiko Ishioka's last contribution to film with Mirror Mirror's wacky, gorgeous clothes.
Will Win: Anna Karenina
Could Win: Mirror Mirror
Should Win: Anna Karenina
Should Have Been Here: Django Unchained

Visual Effects
The nominees:
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman

Life of Pi takes this. No contest.
Will Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Should Win: Life of Pi
Should Have Been Here: Cloud Atlas

Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables

This one's a battle royale between showy fantasy work and grimy aging effects. Though Les Mis could very easily take this one, I'm predicting it to not have a whole lot of support in the below-the-line categories, which clears the way for a Middle Earth victory.
Will Win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Could Win: Les Miserables
Should Win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Should Have Been Here: The Impossible

Film Editing
The nominees:
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Normally, this award is pretty closely tied to the eventual best picture winner, which bodes well for Argo, which would stand a good chance here even if it weren't the best picture frontrunner. When the frontrunner trips up here, however, it's normally beaten by a prestigious, well-made action/thrill film, which means Zero Dark Thirty could still surprise. Look to this category for an early sign that  Silver Linings, Life of Pi, or Lincoln might make a run for the big prize as well. If Argo wins here, the big race just might be over with. If it loses, expect a night of surprises.
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Should Have Been Here: Cloud Atlas

Cinematography
The nominees:
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Life of Pi probably has this one sewn up. Voters have loved CG-heavy, brightly beautiful movies in this category for the past few years, and everyone can agree that Pi looks stunning. Its strongest competition comes from Skyfall, whose cinematographer Roger Deakins is incredibly respected, and yet has never won. Though this might be the closest he's come, I don't think he'll hit the gold tomorrow (sadly).
Will Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Anna Karenina (though I'd be thrilled if Deakins won)
Should Have Been Here: The Master

Original Score
The nominees:
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Slightly tougher here. This is another category where Life of Pi looks like it could triumph, but I wouldn't discount the voters' desire to throw a few awards at Argo, and here seems like a likely place, even if the score is the most boring and derivative one in competition. Surprisingly, Skyfall has also been making inroads in this category of late, and much-nominated-but-never-winning composer Thomas Newman might come close to the mark here.
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Anna Karenina
Should Have Been Here: Beasts of the Southern Wild (this snub hurts me more than all the rest)

Sound Mixing
The nominees:
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skfall

Another duel to the death, this time between Les Miserables and Skyfall. Les Mis has the huge advantage here--it's a musical, which almost guarantees success, and it made a big fuss about its live-on-set-singing, which will earn it brownie points. On the other hand, Skyfall has 20-time Oscar loser Greg P. Russell--really, the story of Skyline in most the tech categories is of hugely influential and respected multiple nominees who can never make it to the podium. Watch for potential surprises from Argo or Life of Pi, which could both sweep the sound categories.
Will Win: Les Miserables
Could Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Skyfall
Should Have Been Here: The Hunger Games

Sound Editing
The nominees:
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Here's another crazy category. Ok, so Django's probably out. What does that leave? The sound elements aren't particularly impressive on Argo, but sound awards frequently go to the movie voters like best, rather than the most impressive achievement (see Hugo's win last year). Life of Pi is very impressive, and is a major Oscar player, but I'm not sure it's got the juice here. Skyfall is a loved and respected action film, which are frequently victorious here (The Dark Knight, The Bourne Ultimatum, etc.), but it's got to be well-loved enough to upset the bigger, more prestigious movies. Finally, Zero Dark Thirty is a war film, which should give it a better chance, but Zero Dark Thirty's awards prospects really have been decimated in the last few weeks.
Will Win: Skyfall
Could Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Life of Pi
Should Have Been Here: The Avengers

Original Song
The nominees:
"Before My Time"-Chasing Ice
"Suddenly"-Les Miserables
"Pi's Lullaby"-Life of Pi
"Skyfall"-Skyfall
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend"-Ted

No way Adele loses this. "Skyfall" takes it in a walk.
Will Win: "Skyfall"-Skyfall
Could Win: "Pi's Lullaby"-Life of Pi
Should Win: "Skyfall"-Skyfall
Should Have Been Here: "Song of the Lonely Mountain"-The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Animated Film
The nominees:
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-it Ralph

Another bloodbath of a category. Frankenweenie and ParaNorman are the critical hits, but Brave and Wreck-it Ralph are more popular. Ralph has been more dominant in the precursor awards, but I feel like the Academy's older voters will be turned off by its video game theme, which will let Pixar win by default.
Will Win: Brave
Could Win: Wreck-it Ralph
Should Win: ParaNorman*
Should Have Been Here: The Secret World of Arrietty
*note: I haven't seen Wreck-it Ralph.

Foreign Language Film
The nominees:
Amour-Austria
Kon-Tiki-Norway
No-Chile
A Royal Affair-Denmark
War Witch-Canada

Fun fact: no foreign language film that was also nominated for best picture has ever lost in this category, which bodes very, very well for Amour. Still, there's a first time for everything. Apparently No, A Royal Affair and War Witch are all good, challenging films, which is something of a surprise in this category. What that means is that voters who are looking for something bland and inspiring will all rally for Kon-Tiki, which just might spell Amour's doom. Probably not, though.
Will Win: Amour
Could Win: Kon-Tiki
Should Win: Abstain. I've only seen one of the nominees.

Documentary Feature
The nominees:
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

Searching for Sugar Man has steamrolled its competition throughout the year. The other films have more important issues and a stronger emotional impact, but the most inspiring film in this category is usually the one that wins, which means Searching for Sugar Man is looking golden.
Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man
Could Win: The Invisible War
Should Win: How to Survive a Plague*
Should Have Been Here: The Queen of Versaille
*note: I haven't seen The Gatekeepers.

Well, that's it. For those keeping track at home, here are the movies I'm predicting to win multiple Oscars:
Argo-4 (Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Score)
Life of Pi-4 (Director, Production Design, Visual Effects, Cinematography)
Amour-2 (Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film)
Skyfall-2 (Sound Editing, Original Song)

The Oscars begin at 6:30 MST, so tune in so you can argue with me about it afterward. Any predictions? Any hopes? I'd love to see Beasts win something, but I don't expect it to, sadly.