Another year, another flotilla of Oscar predictions. As far as hobbies are concerned, Oscar-watching seems like a particularly dubious one--the Oscars are like high school political campaigns mixed with America's Next Top Model mixed with just so, so much glitter. It's all kind of strange. But, as I say every year, Tradition, Dammit! I've got a wacky, shiny-golden-man-induced illness, and all of you are here to enable me. Thanks. So today starts my annual 5-day blitz of Oscar nomination predictions, which will be unveiled bright and early on Thursday the 16th. Today we'll do Picture and a few categories no one follows, tomorrow will be directing and screenplays, Monday will be acting, Tuesday will be craft categories, and I'll be back on Wednesday to put up my final picks. Sounds fun! ....Probably. If you like shiny, golden men, I guess.
Best Picture
A quick reminder regarding the Academy's rules with this category--there can be anywhere between 5 to 10 nominees, depending on the balloting process. Although it involves some terribly complicated math, the gist of what determines the number of nominees is this: every nominee must receive at least 5% of the #1 votes from Academy ballots (although there's some readjusting that happens so that #2 and #3 spots sometimes become #1. It's weird. Don't ask me to explain). So what matters most here is a passionate following. Sure, a film can be widely enjoyed, but if it's not loved, then it's got a steep uphill climb. That being said:
Group 1: These movies are going to waste yours and my time, pretending that they might not get nominated, when come on guys, you're not fooling anyone:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Nebraska
So yeah. Like I said. These movies gotta stop pretending that we're not going to hear their names called on Thursday morning. These are done deals.
Group 2: Safe is a relative term, or: Yeah, I'm not qualified to make definite statements here.
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Saving Mr. Banks
It's terribly difficult to come down on either side for these movies. All have serious positive and negative elements working for and/or against them. Dallas was never expected to be a serious player, but, lo and behold, every guild and awards body between here and the moon have collectively lost their knickers over it, which is frankly a little bit unfathomable to me. Her is a huge critics it, and very widely respected, but might its story about falling in love with your computer play a little young for Academy voters? The exact opposite can be saide for Saving Mr. Banks--it's hardly been critically respected, but it's the kind of middle-of-the-road, inspirational soft-ball that the Academy can't help but love.
Group 3: Oscars Beyond Thunderdome: Two films enter, one film leaves.
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wolf of Wall Street
Every year we've had the preferential balloting system thus far, we've had nine nominees, so it seems silly not to predict nine again. That being said, who takes the ninth spot? One of these films, probably, but still, picking is kind of a bear. Wolf might be too controversial, Llewyn might be too definatly inscrutable. It's a toss-up. Alternately...
Group 4: And Suddenly, Harvey Weinstein. Harvey Weinstein Everywhere.
August: Osage County
Blue Jasmine
The Butler
Fruitvale Station
Philomena
For those of you who don't know, Harvey Weinstein basically invented the Oscar-game as we know it today, and all of the above movies except one are Weinstein productions. His company, Miramax, had a spectacular run of best picture winners in the 90s, and since founding his new company (named the Weinstein company, naturally) in 2007, there has yet to be a best picture lineup without a Weinstein-backed film. And yet here we are, and none of poor Harvey's films have really taken flight. Of course, that doesn't mean one of them won't muscle through (and I wouldn't be surprised if one did), but right now it seems all of the following Harvey films are on the outside looking in:
*note: I've also included Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine in here--it's not a Weinstein film, but it's still got a chance at crashing the party.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
12 Years a Slave
Gravity
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Nebraska
Her
Saving Mr. Banks
Dallas Buyers Club
The Wolf of Wall Street
Alternates: Inside Llewyn Davis, Philomena
Everyone bear in mind that I totally reserve the right to completely change my mind by Wednesday.
Next, we're going to blast through a few categories that few people really follow. Yay!
Animated Film
Unfortunately, this has been a notoriously grim year as far as quality in mainstream animation is concerned. Does this mean that the Academy will turn to indie fare and foreign work to fill the category, or will they resign themselves to voting for sequels? Good question. Here's what we do know: Disney's mega-hit Frozen will have to mud-wrestle Hayao Miyazaki's (allegedly) final film The Wind Rises for the win, and Pixar's brand is not yet so tarnished that Monsters University won't easily nab a nom. The rest, however, is more difficult. On the commercial side, The Croods and Despicable Me 2 look like the best bets, with only Epic being something else the voters can choose without feeling bad about themselves. On the indie side, French hit Ernest and Celestine is apparently fantastic, but how many voters will actually see it? The Same can be said for O Apostolo and A Letter to Momo: South American and Japanese productions, respectively, which are allegedly wonderful, but who has heard of them stateside?
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Monsters University
Ernest and Celestine
The Croods
Alternates: Despicable Me 2, A Letter to Momo
Foreign Film
The Academy has already done most of the heavy lifting for us by narrowing down the category to a list of 9 finalists, which are:
The Broken Circle Breakdown-Belgium
An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker-Bosnia and Herzegovina
The Grandmaster-Hong Kong
The Great Beauty-Italy
The Hunt-Denmark
The Missing Picture-Cambodia
The Notebook-Hungary
Omar-Palestine
Two Lives-Germany
Bearing in mind that I've only seen one of these films (The Hunt), who to pick? The Hunt has been a prize hog all year, and is probably the frontrunner, while The Broken Circle Breakdown is probably enjoying its runner-up status right now. Beyond that, things get murky. Will the Academy go for the baity-sounding WWII narrative of Two Lives or The Notebook? Will the Fellini-esque shenanigans of The Great Beauty be just right, or too much? Will Cambodia's Khmer-Rouge-as-told-by-puppets The Missing Picture be too weird? Will The Grandmaster be too superficial? So many questions, and I don't have any answers. ...Other than the fact that I'm pretty sure An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker has no chance. Sexy title, guys.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Hunt-Denmark
The Broken Circle Breakdown-Belgium
Two Lives-Germany
The Notebook-Hungary
The Great Beauty-Italy
Alternates: The Grandmaster-Hong Kong, Omar-Palestine
Documentary Feature
Here's the category I know least about, mostly because the majority of these films will never come to a theater to me, and probably aren't on DVD yet. So I'm not going to spend much time here. 20 Feet From Stardom and Blackfish are immensely popular, Stories We Tell and The Act of Killing (two great films which I've actually seen) have been the clear critical favorites but might be too unorthodox for the Academy, and Tim's Vermeer, Dirty Wars, God Loves Uganda, and The Armstrong Lie all have points in their favor. I think the sneaky favorite, however, is The Square--a documentary about the Egyptian revolution which feels too timely to pass up.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom
Blackfish
Stories We Tell
Tim's Vermeer
Alternates: The Act of Killing, Dirty Wars
That's it for today. Tune in tomorrow as I continue chipping away at predictions before Thursday!
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