Rest easy, y'all, because today's the last big day of predictions before Thursday's announcement--a day which is basically better than Christmas in my eyes. In case you're not the kind of person who's getting super worked up about who's going to get nominated for sound editing this year (go Upstream Color!), I'll keep today's commentary brief; in part because attempting to predict these kinds of awards can be a bit silly. That's right, today we're diving into the craft categories--the ones the cinephiles love, and the ones everyone else uses as an opportunity to go to the bathroom. Fun for the whole family! So here goes.
Production Design
The Great Gatsby
12 Years a Slave
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Gravity
Saving Mr. Banks
Alternates: American Hustle, Inside Llewyn Davis
I actually feel pretty confident about this lineup. The only strong spoiler is American Hustle, which just might be a huge player across the board. If so, it might knock out The Hobbit (but no Lord of the Rings film has ever missed a nomination in this category), Gravity (it might be seen as too many space shots and not enough set-work, but this movie's also gonna be a sweeper) or Saving Mr. Banks (if they don't love this movie like I think they will). If the branch is feeling frisky, they'll spring for Her or Inside Llewyn Davis, or if they're feeling super-traditional they'll go for The Butler or The Invisible Woman.
Costume Design
The Great Gatsby
12 Years a Slave
Saving Mr. Banks
American Hustle
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Alternates: The Invisible Woman, The Butler
It's probably a bit risky predicting The Hunger Games' wacky, gorgeous capital couture here, but it is the highest-grossing film of the year, and only two highest-grossers in the past 30 years have failed to score a nod with the Academy. So Hunger Games gets shuffled in. I really ought to have The Invisible Woman in the top 5, given this branch's incurable love affair with Victorian-era England. Alas. I'm fairly confident about the other four, and honestly I don't see anything else pushing past the seven I've listed. Maybe Her, if they're feeling super wacky? Maybe Inside Llewyn Davis? Probably not.
Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man Three
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness
Alternates: Elysium, Oblivion
Obviously Gravity is going to win, but what four films will get the honor of losing to it? I feel awfully confident about the first four; the last slot is a total guess. As it were, the Academy has already released a list of 10 finalists in this category. The other three I haven't listed yet are Thor: The Dark World, The Lone Ranger, and World War Z. Honestly I don't feel confident predicting anything other than those top four, but I've got to settle on something. So I decided Elysium, Oblivion, and The Lone Ranger were too critically despised, and Thor and World War Z weren't bringing enough to the table. That left Star Trek, whose predecessor did score here, so weirder things have happened.
Makeup and Hairstyling
American Hustle
The Lone Ranger
Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters
Alternates: Bad Grandpa, Dallas Buyers Club
I've only got Hansel and Gretel in here because I read an article in a German magazine about the makeup work, and everyone seemed duly impressed with it, so it must be fate. I really ought to have Bad Grandpa in here, but I've decided not to include it, mostly because I don't want to feel obligated to sit down and watch the thing. Really, though, this is a category in which basically anything could happen. Like Visual Effects, it's already been narrowed down to seven finalists, the last of which are The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and The Great Gatsby. Any of these seven films getting in or missing wouldn't surprise me.
Film Editing
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Rush
Alternates: The Wolf of Wall Street, Lone Survivor
Basically this category is a horse-race between Rush and The Wolf of Wall Street for the last slot. I'm going with Rush, if only because Wolf has a three-hour running time, and I've heard more than a fair share of people call the film bloated. Which isn't a great word when competing for editing, but oh well. Inside Llewyn Davis or All is Lost could surprise, but I really doubt it.
Cinematography
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
12 Years a Slave
Nebraska
Prisoners
Alternates: The Grandmaster, Captain Phillips
Here's another race where it's down to seven, but I don't really see anything breaking my top 5. The first three are golden, Nebraska is in black and white which they always nominate here, and Prisoners is lensed by demigod Richard Deakins, who gets in more often than not, regardless of whether the film itself has support. I might be able to see The Grandmaster force its way in their, but don't count on it. Other long shots to not count on are Her, Rush, and All is Lost.
Original Score
12 Years a Slave
Saving Mr. Banks
The Book Thief
Gravity
All is Lost
Alternates: Philomena, Captain Phillips
I'm going out on a bit of a limb, predicting that All is Lost will kick Philomena out, but I've been kicking Philomena out of a lot of places lately, and All is Lost *did* win the Golden Globe in this category the other night. Still, don't be surprised to see Philomena make it instead. ...Which would make for a painfully boring category, but whatever. If they're feeling really crazy they'll go for Her, but when does this branch ever feel crazy? Never, that's when. This is the most notoriously insular and timid branch in the Academy--generally, only one new composer is nominated per year, and then it's back to playing old favorites. Which is why I probably shouldn't have both Gravity and All is Lost here (they're both written by un-nominated composers), but the hell with it.
Sound Mixing
Gravity
Captain Phillips
12 Years a Slave
Lone Survivor
Rush
Alternates: Inside Llewyn Davis, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
It was a last-minute call between Rush and Davis, but I decided to stick with Ron Howard's crappy little car movie. Don't be surprised to see Inside Llewyn Davis's live-recorded vocals sneaking in here, a la Les Mis from last year. All is Lost could also break the mold, and it would be wonderful to see World War Z find some traction here, but let's not get our hopes up.
Sound Editing
Gravity
Lone Survivor
Rush
Captain Phillips
Iron Man Three
Alternates: All is Lost, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
I should probably admit upfront that I'm terrible at predicting sound nominations. Oh well. Honestly, I'm only sure that Gravity will get in, and the rest is basically a crap-shoot. All is Lost could very easily score, and 12 Years a Slave could totally pull an Argo-esque pair of sound nods as the best picture frontrunner. Even summer blockbusters like Man of Steel or Pacific Rim could come into play here. Basically, take all of these picks with a very large and tasty grain of salt.
Original Song
"Let it Go"-Frozen
"Young and Beautiful"-The Great Gatsby
"In the Middle of the Night"-The Butler
"Ordinary Love"-Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
"A Little Party Never Killed Nobody (All We Got)"-The Great Gatsby
Alternates: "You and I Ain't Nothin' No More"-The Butler, "The Moon Song"-Her
I'm being a little wonky here. Conventional wisdom suggests that Her's lovely little acoustic ballad is a sure thing. That being said, every year, some lovely little song that's integral to the plot but not particularly flashy misses the nomination to screams and howls of outrage, and "The Moon Song" seems tailor-made to do exactly that. Instead, I'm making a totally left-field choice and am picking the dance anthem that underscores Gatsby's most memorable party scene. Am I wrong? Probably. But this category is year in and year out the most difficult to predict, in that the people who vote for it have no sense of consistency, rules, or much of anything, really. So it's just throwing darts. Even 'sure things' like "Let it Go" and "Young and Beautiful" have been known to miss, so we'll just close our eyes, pin our tail on the donkey, and see where we go from here. Other possibilities include "I See Fire" from The Hobbit, "So You Know What It's Like" from Short Term 12, "Atlas" from The Hunger Games, "Amen" from All is Lost, and basically a ton of songs from movies neither you nor I have ever heard of (I kid you not, on the eligibility list are four songs from something called Kama Sutra 3D. The more you know).
Believe it or not (and I bet you're going to believe it), that's it as far as new predictions are concerned. Tomorrow I'll bang out a list of final *final* predictions (pretty sure I'm going to want to move a thing or two around), but we're almost to the finish line! Rejoice!
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