It's on now. It's on now for real.
Long story short: tomorrow night's going to be a bloodbath. Fancy frocks and tuxes will snipe at each other across the aisles until the Dolby Theater runs red with the blood of discarded acceptance speeches that will never be used.
And it's going to be awesome.
In case you didn't get the gist of that, here it is: this Oscar season has been extremely competitive, it's going to continue to be so right down to the wire, and a whole lot of people are going to go home disappointed. We should all take a little time to be thankful for this--most years we already know most of the outcomes by now. A little suspense on the night is a rare thing indeed. So time to throw some darts at the wall and see what sticks!
Best Picture
The nominees:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
So here's the deal: Only three movies still have a shot at this: American Hustle, 12 Years a Slave, and Gravity. Slave and Gravity are neck-and-neck for the win, and either could easily pull it out. 12 Years a Slave seems at first like the more traditional Oscar-bait: it's a moving period drama from a respected director. Its brutality, however, as well as its subject matter (sadly, embarrassingly, the Academy is never too interested in storylines about people of color) will certainly turn some voters off. The Academy loves movies that make them feel good, and 12 Years a Slave certainly isn't one of them. In that sense, Gravity has the upper hand--it's an emotional portrait of rebirth and rekindling the will to live. That being said, it's a sci-fi/action blockbuster, and those basically never win Oscars. Will too many voters consider it purely a technical showcase, or will that very technical prowess make more people vote for it? No idea. Finally, although it's certainly in third place, American Hustle may just capitalize on the Slave/Gravity feud and sneak its way to a win. I wouldn't count on it, but I wouldn't count it out, either.
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Here: Inside Llewyn Davis
Director
The nominees:
Alfonso Cuaron-Gravity
Steve McQueen-12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne-Nebraska
David O. Russell-American Hustle
Martin Scorsese-The Wolf of Wall Street
This category may be a little easier--Cuaron probably has this in the bag. Gravity is such a piece of directorial showmanship that it may be hard to turn down. That being said, I could definitely see Steve McQueen stealing this if 12 Years a Slave has enough support. I don't know, though. This year feels like a picture/director split is coming. I wouldn't be surprised if picture went to Slave and director went to Gravity, or vice versa, but I would be a little surprised to see either movie take both.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron-Gravity
Could Win: Steve McQueen-12 Years a Slave
Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron-Gravity
Should Have Been Here: J.C. Chandor-All is Lost
Actor
The nominees:
Christian Bale-American Hustle
Bruce Dern-Nebraska
Leonardo Dicaprio-The Wolf of Wall STreet
Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers Club
Much as I hate to say it, McConaughey's probably going to take this. He's got the momentum, and the movie is well-loved (though I'm baffled as to why). Plus, no other nominee has a strong enough case to take it from him. ...Rather, almost every nominee has a strong enough case, which means they'll cancel each other out. Leo is overdue, Dern gets the veteran vote, Ejiofor's in the best picture front-runner, etc. It's possible that one of these narratives will de-throne McConaughey (and I hope it does), but I don't think it will.
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: Leonardo Dicaprio-The Wolf of Wall Street
Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been Here: Oscar Isaac-Inside Llewyn Davis
Actress
The nominees:
Amy Adams-American Hustle
Cate Blanchett-Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock-Gravity
Judi Dench-Philomena
Meryl Streep-August: Osage County
Blanchett has steamrolled the competition thus far, and I see no reason for that to not continue. There have been some murmurings of Adams being able to come from behind for the win, and she is a well-loved, slightly overdue actress, but it's just not going to happen. This is Blanchett's year.
Will Win: Cate Blanchett-Blue Jasmine
Could Win: Amy Adams-American Hustle
Should Win: Cate Blanchett-Blue Jasmine
Should Have Been Here: Julie Delpy-Before Midnight
Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Barkhad Abdi-Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper-American Hustle
Michael Fassbender-12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill-The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto-Dallas Buyers Club
Like Best Actress, this one's essentially over already, with Leto and Dallas Buyers Club emergin victorious. That being said, Barkhad Abdi has been coming on awfully strong lately, and his story (former limo driver goes to the Oscars on his first movie) would be an awesome one to cap off with an Oscar win. I hope it happens, and it's certainly a more likely upset than the Adams/Actress argument, but this is ultimately Leto's.
Will Win: Jared Leto-Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: Barkhad Abdi-Captain Phillips
Should Win: Bradley Cooper-American Hustle
Should Have Been Here: Ben Foster-Ain't Them Bodies Saints
Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Sally Hawkins-Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence-American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o-12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts-August: Osage County
June Squibb-Nebrasa
Here's the biggest bloodbath of the season: two ingenues, two wildly different performances, one Oscar. In on corner, Jennifer Lawrence--arguably the biggest star around right now, giving a wacky, comedic firecracker of a star performance in a best picture frontrunner. In the other corner, Lupita Nyong'o--an exciting new talent, giving a heart-crushing dramatic performance in a best picture frontrunner. So who the hell wins? Lupita might have the advantage here, because Lawrence has done basically everything in her power to say that she doesn't want to win this year; plus, she just won an Oscar last year. So the Academy might want to anoint a new talent. That being said, Lawrence keeps on winning things despite her best efforts, the Academy clearly loves her, and if they want to toss some substantial hardware American Hustle's way, this might be the best place to do it. I don't know. This one will be a nail-biter right up until the envelope is opened. Hell, June Squibb might even sneak past the competition to steal the whole thing. I don't expect it, but weirder things have happened.
Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o-12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence-American Hustle
Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o-12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been Here: Emma Watson-The Bling Ring
Original Screenplay
The nominees:
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
Just like the last category, this one's a bloodbath with two viable contenders slugging it out: American Hustle and Her. To they pick the well-loved best picture front-runner (Hustle) or the high-concept original work from a much-loved director (Her)? No idea. My logic is this--American Hustle has to win something. And if Lawrence loses (as I'm predicting she will), this is basically the only place for it. So Hustle edges it out, but Her could very, very easily take this. Also like the last category--Nebraska just might sneak past the higher-profile candidates. I don't see it happening though.
Will Win: American Hustle
Could Win: Her
Should Win: Blue Jasmine
Should Have Been Here: Frances Ha
Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
This ought to be a much easier call than it is. 12 Years a Slave should take it in a walk, right? It's the only Best Picture front-runner here. That being said, even people who love the movie have voiced some issues with its screenplay, and the other nominees in this category (particularly Philomena and The Wolf of Wall Street) have passionate fanbases who might seize this category as the easiest place to express that passion. I'm still calling Slave for the win, but either of those other two nominees could steal this.
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Philomena
Should Win: Before Midnight
Should Have Been Here: In the House
Production Design
The nominees:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
This is arguably the hardest category on the board (at least for me). Here's the question we need to consider: Will the Academy award the most lushly designed film, or will they use this category to reward the potential Best Picture winner? Or will they use this category to throw a bone to a movie that won't win best picture (a la Lincoln last year)? If option A: The Great Gatsby wins. Most often equals best in this category, which helps Gatsby considerably. If option B: 12 Years a Slave or Gravity wins. But 12 Years a Slave is rather unshowy here, and Gravity may be too subtle. If option C: American Hustle or Her wins. But Her is waaay too subtle/maybe not loved enough, and American Hustle looks intentionally ugly, which is great for the movie, but bad for its awards chances. Tough calls. I honestly still don't know what I'm going to predict, so let's just press enter and see what I go with...
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: The Great Gatsby
Should Win: Her
Should Have Been Here: Pacific Rim
Costume Design
The nominees:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Basically, this category is a re-hash of last category's argument, but with a slightly easier answer. Sure, the Best-Picture-gets-support argument may certainly carry 12 Years a Slave or American Hustle to a win here, but I'm not convinced. They almost always go with showiest in this category, which means Gatsby has the biggest advantage. Plus, I really doubt Gatsby will go home empty handed, and I predicted it to lose the only other Oscar it's up for, so...
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Could Win: American Hustle
Should Win: The Great Gatsby*
Should Have Been Here: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Note: I haven't seen The Invisible Woman.
Visual Effects
The nominees:
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man Three
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness
Gravity, obviously. Easiest call of the night.
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (but not really)
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Here: Man of Steel
Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
Bad Grandpa
Dallas Buyers Club
The Lone Ranger
Frequently, the movie with the most Academy love triumphs in this category, which means Dallas Buyers Club comes out on top. Plus, I highly doubt the Academy wants Bad Grandpa or The Lone Ranger to be able to call itself an Oscar winner.
Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: Bad Grandpa
Should Win: The Lone Ranger
Should Have Been Here: 12 Years a Slave
Film Editing
The nominees:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Another crazy difficult category to call. Conventional wisdom may suggest Gravity: it's a best picture front-runner (which helps), plus it's a technical marvel (which definitely helps). Do all of those long takes, however, make people think that the film was easy to edit? Sometimes this category jumps for the showiest editing, which Captain Phillips has in spades. That's not to say it's edited poorly, of course--it just means it has the most noticeable editing, which helps. Watch out for American Hustle and 12 Years a Slave; if either of those films wins this category, then chances are good they'll also take best picture.
Will Win: Captain Phillips
Could Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Here: Upstream Color
Cinematography
The nominees:
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Prisoners
Nebraska
Gravity wins this. No contest. Even if the Academy had a problem with how much of the movie is digitally created (which they don't), none of the other movies are loved enough to push by.
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Prisoners
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Here: Leviathan
Original Score
The nominees:
The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks
Here's a category Gravity will probably win by default. The Book Thief, Philomena, and Saving Mr. Banks are all written by highly respected categories, but I don't know that anyone thinks these movies are their best work. Her is lovely, but it's probably a little too weird for the Academy at large. ...Although I did say the same thing for The Social Network, and it won, so who knows?
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Her
Should Win: Her
Should Have Been Here: Ain't Them Bodies Saints
Sound Mixing
The nominees:
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
Another category in which Gravity has almost no chance of losing. Maaaaaaaybe Captain Phillips or Lone Survivor supporters rally, but I just don't see it happening.
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Captain Phillips
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Here: Upstream Color
Sound Editing
The nominees:
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor
Exact same argument as before.
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Captain Phillips
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Here: Upstream Color
Original Song
The nominees:
"Happy"-Despicable Me 2
"Let it Go"-Frozen
"The Moon Song"-Her
"Ordinary Love"-Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Although "Happy" has been everywhere lately, Frozen is a full-blown cultural phenomenon, and "Let it Go" is the centerpiece of the movie. No way it loses this. In case you're curious/didn't know, there are only four nominees, because one of them ("Alone Yet Not Alone" from the film of the same name) was disqualified for breaking campaigning rules. The gist of it was that it was clearly obvious that the movie was only nominated because the guy who wrote it was head of the Academy's music branch, and that no one had actually seen the film (because it essentially wasn't released).
Will Win: "Let it Go"-Frozen
Could Win: "Happy"-Despicable Me 2
Should Win: "Let it Go"-Frozen
Should Have Been Here: "Young and Beautiful"-The Great Gatsby
Animated Film
The nominees:
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest and Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
See above, re: Frozen as a cultural phenomenon. If people actually believed that Miyazaki were retiring, then The Wind Rises would have a better shot, but they don't, so it doesn't.
Will Win: Frozen
Could Win: The Wind Rises
Should Win: Frozen*
Should Have Been Here: abstain
Note: I probably shouldn't do this for this category, as I've seen neither Ernest and Celestine nor The Wind Rises, but hey.
Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown-Belgium
The Great Beauty-Italy
The Hunt-Denmark
The Missing Picture-Cambodia
Omar-Palestine
Oh man, just throw a dart or something. The Great Beauty is a lively auteur piece that's been picking up a lot of momentum, and The Hunt is an emotional melodrama that already has a lot of momentum, so either could win. The Broken Circle Breakdown might also win just on the strength of its emotional impact (however manipulative it may be). So it's anyone's guess. Smart money might be on The Great Beauty, but I've got to go with my gut.
Will Win: The Hunt
Could Win: The Great Beauty
Should Win: abstain (I've only seen The Hunt)
Documentary Feature
The nominees:
20 Feet from Stardom
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
Super difficult to predict this year. The Act of Killing is the most critically acclaimed, but it's awfully grim, and its formal and stylistic innovations might be too much for the Academy to handle. The Square is unbelievably timely and rather well made, but I don't know if enough voters will have seen it. 20 Feet from Stardom is both moving and fun, which definitely distinguishes it from the rest of the rather dour field. So who wins? Any one of those three could take it.
Will Win: The Square
Could Win: 20 Feet from Stardom
Should Win: The Act of Killing*
Should Have Been Here: Leviathan
Note: I haven't seen Cutie and the Boxer.
Well that's that. For those of you playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting to win multiple Oscars:
Gravity-6 (Director, Visual Effects, Cinematography, Original Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing)
12 Years a Slave-4 (Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design)
Dallas Buyers Club-3 (Actor, Supporting Actor, Makeup)
Frozen-2 (Original Song, Animated Film)
So if I'm right, there won't be a whole lot of spreading the wealth. The Oscars are on tomorrow night, so tune in and see what I get wrong!
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