Saturday, January 10, 2015

Oscar Predictions 2014, part 1: Picture

Hello again Internet! It's that brief slice of the year in which I crawl out of the proverbial cave to squeal into the also proverbial abyss. And you know what? I've almost been doing this a decade--next year will mark 10 years of Oscar prognostication. Which means that I am an ancient, inscrutable granny who should hardly even be able to look at a computer without her face melting off, Indiana Jones style. And yet here we are. Funny how these things work out. So despite my terribly advanced age, general technological ineptitude, and profoundly limited time (shocking how little free time teaching affords), I'm gonna hop into this thing like there's no tomorrow. ...Although there will be. Precisely four more, to be exact. Today I'll tackle Best Picture and a few categories that I know nothing about, tomorrow I'll look into the acting categories, Monday will be directing and screenplays, Tuesday will be craft categories, and Wednesday I'll sum everything up and put it in one pretty little box. So here we go!



Best Picture
In case there's some unfathomable person out there who doesn't think about Oscars 24/7, here's a quick refresher on the rules: there can be anywhere between 5-10 nominees, depending on how many films earn at least 5% of the voting body's #1 vote on their lists for this category. In some cases, however, #2 and #3 (maybe even #4) votes can become #1 votes (because suddenly, math! Math everywhere!). So what counts most is having passionate supporters, but being broadly liked doesn't hurt either.

Group 1: Nothing's Set in Stone, But If Were Setting Things In Stone, These Things Are the Things I'd Be Stone-Setting
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything

I'm not making any guarantees, but....No, wait, yes I am. We'll hear all of these movies called on Thursday. If, by some wacky happenstance, that doesn't happen, please send someone around to scrape my jaw off the floor.

Group 2: Nothing's Set in Stone, but I've Run Out of Clever Group Names Already
Selma
Whiplash

Theoretically, Group 1 could be it for us as far as nominees are concerned. Who knows. But if they do go more than 5 (and I'm sure they will), these two seem the likeliest to jump onto the dog-pile. Honestly, I'd had Selma ranked quite a bit higher for some time (I'd even thought it might win), but its total and complete failure in garnering precursor support has got me a bit skeptical now. Nevertheless, I'm sure it'll make it in. I'm just not sure how much support it will receive throughout the other categories.

Group 3: You Know That Seen in West Side Story, Where Everyone Dances and It's Wonderful, Until Everyone Starts Dying, and then It's Hilarious? This is Basically That Scene.
American Sniper
Gone Girl
Into the Woods
Nightcrawler
Unbroken

Cue the bloodbath. Groups 1 and 2 could be it for us. But there have been 9 nominees every year the Academy has used this method for determining nominees, and I've got no cause to think that 9 won't be the magic number once again. Which means that we've got at least 5 movies with a solid chance, and only 2 slots to fill. Ouch. So who makes it? I'm predicting that American Sniper benefits from a late-surging popularity rush that only lasts long enough to get it nominations, but not to win anything/gain critical respect/explain to anyone how it actually made it here, a la Wolf of Wall Street or True Grit. But what after that? Gone Girl is awfully popular, but it might be a little lowbrow for the Academy. Ditto Nightcrawler, but subtract the popularity and add some "wow, look at this!" sense of discovering an indie contender. And Into the Woods and Unbroken might ride in on pedigree and good intentions alone--no one loves these movies, but hey, if War Horse can finagle a nomination, then why cant Louis Zamperini?

Group 4: Ugh, I Don't Know, I Just Need Four Groups, Don't Judge.
A Most Violent Year
Wild

And here is a group for the movies that I don't think will make it, but you never know, and so I'm hedging my bets. I don't think they'll make it. You never know. There we are.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Birdman
The Theory of Everything
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
Whiplash
American Sniper
Gone Girl
Alternates: Unbroken, Nightcrawler

Bear in mind that I reserve my right to totally change my mind before I post final thoughts on Wednesday.

Next, let's race through a few categories that most people don't really care about. Yay!

Best Animated Feature
So the people behind The Lego Movie should already be clearing off space on their trophy shelf. There's one spot taken. What about the other four? On the mainstream side, expect new efforts like The Boxtrolls and Big Hero Six to trump sequels like How to Train Your Dragon 2, Rio 2, and The Penguins of Madagascar. ...Although Dragon will probably get in by the skin of its teeth. On the foreign/indie side, critical darlings like The Tale of Princess Kaguya, Song of the Sea, Cheatin', or Rocks in My Pockets might find love here, but barring rare exception (hi 2011!), the branch usually only finds room for one little movie in this category per year.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Lego Movie
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Tale of Princess Kaguya
Alternates: Song of the Sea, The Book of Life

Best Foreign Language Film
Each year, the Academy releases a list of 9 film shortlist in this category, which certainly helps us narrow down the field. This year, we've got:
Accused-The Netherlands
Tangerines-Estonia
Corn Island-Georgia
Force Majeure-Sweden
Ida-Poland
Leviathan-Russia
The Liberator-Venezuela
Timbuktu-Mauritania
Wild Tales-Argentina

Now I've only seen one of these, so much of this is blind guesswork. Thankfully, the one I have seen is Ida, which is indisputably the front-runner. Past Ida, Leviathan, Force Majeure, Timbuktu, and Wild Tales, each have amassed a following and critical reputation beyond the other movies that it's honestly kind of hard to see anything else passing them. Only the apparently heartstring-plucking Tangerines has a chance. ...Although this category can be kind of bonkers with their nominations, so I suppose you never know.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Ida-Poland
Timbuktu-Mauritania
Force Majeure-Sweden
Leviathan-Russia
Wild Tales-Argentina
Alternates: Tangerines-Estonia, Accused-The Netherlands

Best Documentary Feature
Speaking of blind guesswork, I haven't seen any of these movies! In fact, I have yet to see any documentaries from 2014 whatsoever, due to a combination of scarce distribution (I think only one of these films opened in my state) and the exciting definition of 'free time' I've had in the past 5 months (hint: it's none. None whatsoever). But we'll do what we can. Citizenfour and Life Itself are probably sure things. The Overnighters, Virunga, Tales of the Grim Sleeper, and Keep On Keepin' On. May do it for them. Last Days in Vietnam and The Case Against 8 may pack the right political punch. I really don't know. Let's just throw some darts, shall we?

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Citizenfour
Life Itself
The Overnighters
Last Days in Vietnam
Virunga
Alternates; The Case Against 8, Keep On Keepin' On

Well there we have it! I'll be back tomorrow to talk about acting, but this post will have to hold you over until then. Be strong!

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