Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Oscar Predictions 2014, part 4: Craft Categories

Back again--and this time, with the last major salvo before Christmas Morning (aka Oscar nomination morning, aka better than Christmas). Today we'll be having a look at the craft categories. Because there are 10 of them, because most people don't invest too much interest in them (even though those people are laaaaaaaaaaaammmme), because they're tough to predict and nigh impossible to analyze, and because I've got lesson plans to write tonight (still) (I really need to re-work my time management skills), we'll keep commentary pretty brief. So let's dive right in!



Best Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Interstellar
Alternates: The Theory of Everything, Birdman

I'm kind of confident about this lineup, which means that I'm not really confident at all. Honestly, the only thing I'm sure of is that Budapest is in. I assume The Imitation Game is safe because of its Best Picture frontrunner status and its showy, WWII-era trappings, but who's to say? Ditto Into the Woods--it seems like the kind of thing they'll go for, but maybe there are too many scenes set in the woods for it to land here (even if said woods were built in a studio...). Mr. Turner feels solid, but I've no idea how wedded the Academy is to that movie. Interstellar is a wild guess. Nolan movies tend to do well in this category. But Theory and Birdman could easily hop in (I'm about halfway sure that I'll change this prediction by tomorrow and include one of them). Potential spoilers to this group include The Hobbit (don't think so, but one never knows), Unbroken (where is the enthusiasm for that movie?), and Big Eyes (which is probably a bigger threat than I think it is).

Best Costume Design
Into the Woods
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Maleficent
Big Eyes
Inherent Vice
Alternates: Selma, Mr. Turner

More darts thrown here. Into the Woods and Budapest are safe. Maleficent is probably safe. Big Eyes is...risky. As is Inherent Vice. I could easily get both of those wrong, and the two alternates could easily muscle their way in, as could The Imitation Game or The Theory of Everything, depending on just how big of a sweep either movie plans on making. For weird, left-field picks, look for something like The Hunger Games or Exodus to surprise--although I suppose the point of a surprise is that no one could have predicted it, so maybe we just ought to throw those two the window.

Best Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Interstellar
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Guardians of the Galaxy
Godzilla
Alternates: Maleficent, X-Men: Days of Future Past

Finally, a category where I can try and make a bit of sense. Really, the only intrigue here is what takes the fifth slot--the top four are golden. You'll hear people trying to convince you that Maleficent or X-Men is going to do it, but I'm not convinced about Maleficent, and no X-Men movie has ever been nominated for an Oscar, so I don't think the Academy is going to start with the sixth film in the series. Which leaves Godzilla--somebody's gotta cheer the big silly lizard movie on, and it's going to have to be me, apparently. Incidentally, the Academy already released a shortlist of ten movies for this category; the other three on the list that I've yet to mention are Transformers: Age of Extinction, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, and Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb. I don't want to consider the possibility of another Transformers nomination or something for Night at the Museum, and Captain ain't got the juice, so we'll just stick with our lineup.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Guardians of the Galaxy
Maleficent
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternates: Foxcatcher, The Theory of Everything

Another category for which the Academy already released a shortlist--the other two eligible films are Noah and The Amazing Spider-Man 2, which, just, no. Stop it. Uh-uh. So that leaves these top five. Maybe I'm silly for not predicting Foxcatcher here, but I can't help but think that Steve Carell's Halloween overbite makeup isn't enough to beat out the competition. Or maybe I'm just hoping. It's hard to tell.

Best Film Editing
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Birdman
Gone Girl
American Sniper
Alternates: Whiplash, Selma

Yeah, so I don't even know here. I'm confident about the first two picks, but I've no idea after that. Will the fact that Birdman was edited to look like one take help or hurt it? Is Gone Girl going to be loved by the Academy or is it going to get dumped in the proverbial river? What is even happening to American Sniper right now? Whiplash and Selma are waiting in the wings, as are The Grand Budapest Hotel, Unbroken, and Nightcrawler. Hell, even The Theory of Everything could make a play here. Basically I know nothing, and will be surprised by everything. Super!

Best Cinematography
Birdman
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Theory of Everything
Alternates: Selma, The Imitation Game

Another category where the last slot's a bloodbath. Both of the alternates could easily take it. So could Interstellar or Gone Girl or Inherent Vice or even Nightcrawler. And honestly, almost none of the other movies are safe. Birdman is in for sure, but everything else is vulnerable. So don't be surprised if almost all of these predictions are wrong. It's that kind of year, apparently.

Best Original Score
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Alternates: The Homesman, Unbroken

I've no idea in this category, in that *every* possibility kind of seems like a silly one past the first three. Gone Girl? Too weird. Interstellar? Too many weird organ noises. The Homesman? No one saw it. Unbroken? Written by Alexandre Desplat, who will already have two nominations w/ The Imitation Game and The Grand Budapest Hotel, and not even John Williams has been nominated three times in one year. And past those seven, the options get even more grim. Like, The Judge/Fury/Big Eyes grim, aka movies whose scores no one can even remember, but may nominate just because they recognize the names of the composers. Or hey, maybe something might make it out of left field (remember Skyfall suddenly appearing in this category?) It's a crapshoot.

Best Sound Mixing
Into the Woods
American Sniper
Unbroken
Transformers: Age of Extinction
Birdman
Alternates: Fury, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Full disclosure: I'm just downright terrible at predicting the sound categories. I tend to average 2-3 per year. So take all of this with a grain of salt. I feel confident about Into the Woods, American Sniper, and Unbroken--they're all loud and prestige-y enough. I hate, hate, hate that the Academy might be forcing me to watch another Transformers movie, but here we are. And then I have Birdman for the now standard 'we like your movie so have a nomination' spot (even though Birdman's sound work is great). That could easily go to The Imitation Game or The Grand Budapest Hotel. Maybe The Hobbit has success here. Maybe Fury too, but I've got a hunch it's too similar to what Sniper and Unbroken are offering. If you're looking for a surprise, look to Gone Girl, Guardians of the Galaxy, or Godzilla. Or, for something really heinous and offensive, maybe Interstellar will trump its inherently terrible sound mix to score here.

Best Sound Editing
American Sniper
Interstellar
Unbroken
Fury
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Alternates: Guardians of the Galaxy, Godzilla

...Basically everything I said about the other category. Except that Interstellar's got a better chance, and the 'hey, look, a best picture contender!' slot goes away, leaving room for some of the more popcorn-y movies.

Best Original Song
"Lost Stars"-Begin Again
"Everything is Awesome"-The Lego Movie
"Glory"-Selma
"I'm Not Gonna Miss You"-Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
"Grateful"-Beyond the Lights
Alternates: "What is Love"-Rio 2, "Yellow Flicker Beat"-The Hunger Games: Part 1--Mockingjay

Every year this category makes me throw my hands up in despair. There's no rhyme or reason, and even the most sure things tend to get left by the wayside (I'm crossing my fingers for you, The Lego Movie). Sometimes big names succeed (hello Lorde/The Hunger Games!), and sometimes movies no one has ever heard of score (Hi Glen Campbell!). Sometimes the songs that are featured in big musical sequences succeed (hi Beyond the Lights!), and sometimes it's songs that play over the end credits that triumph (hello "Glory"!). So basically anything could happen, and I've absolutely no idea. So I'll just make some guesses and hope that one or two pan out.


Well, that's that, which means I've officially got no excuse to not go plan my classes tomorrow. As it turns out, today is also the last big prediction dump before Thursday. I'll be back tomorrow to offer super-official final predictions (I'm sure I'll have changed my mind on something by tomorrow), but that's basically it until the Morning Of!

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