Sunday, January 11, 2015

Oscar Predictions 2014, part 2: Acting

Aaaaaaaaaannnnd we're back. I have yet to even get out of bed this morning, and am avoiding responsibilities like the proverbial plague. So here we are! Today we'll have a look at acting categories, if only so that we can allow ourselves to be hopelessly, giddily besotted by celebrities for a minute or two. And who doesn't want that? So here we go.

Best Actor
I've been hearing for months about how tough a category this is, and how deep the field runs, and how we all should basically be weeping with ecstasy over the displays of gorgeousness and gorgeousity made flesh that we've all been lucky enough to experience this year. Meh, I'm not so convinced. At any rate, this category isn't nearly as competitive as people are making it out to be. Here are four fine young lads who will most likely be in:



Benedict Cumberbatch-The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton-Birdman
David Oyelowo-Selma
Eddie Redmayne-The Theory of Everything

Look for Oyelowo to fall out, if the support for Selma isn't as much as I think it will be, and look for Keaton to win. Because he's Batman.

So who else gets in? Great question, and I've really no idea. A couple options:
Steve Carell-Foxcatcher: this movie sank like a lead zeppelin (cue guitar riff), then magically phoenixed itself out of the ashes again, so I don't know. Maybe he's in. That being said, Carell's been a seeming lock for a nom before (Little Miss Sunshine) before mysteriously fading into nothingness, and Sunshine was far more popular than this film.
Ralph Fiennes-The Grand Budapest Hotel: I would love to see this get in, and Budapest is super, super popular. Plus, the film has tons of hitherto unimagined awards support. But can Fiennes get in for comedy? The Academy almost never picks comedy when there's some heavy drama lurking around somewhere, regardless of quality.
Jake Gyllenhaal-Nightcrawler: Who say this coming? After I saw Nightcrawler, I totally fell in love with it, wondered why it wasn't getting more awards attention, figured it was too violent/too little, and then moved on with my life. And then lo and behold--suddenly every awards body between here and the Moon wants to throw shiny statues at the little movie that could. And I'm fine with that. So Gyllenhaal's got a great shot.
Timothy Spall-Mr. Turner: Don't have a whole lot to say here. Apparently Spall does lots of very sympathetic grunting, and that might be enough. But does anyone really love this movie?

So there you have it. I'm not saying a few wild-cards like Oscar Isaac in A Most Violent Year or Bradley Cooper in American Sniper don't have a chance, but... Don't put money on it.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Michael Keaton-Birdman
Eddie Redmayne-The Theory of Everything
Benedict Cumberbatch-The Imitation Game
David Oyelowo-Selma
Jake Gyllenhaal-Nightcrawler
Alternates: Steve Carell-Foxcatcher, Ralph Fiennes-The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actress
There's like, zero intrigue in this category, and it's kind of a bummer. You've got four slots that, barring unbelievable, wacky surprise, are a done deal. And then you've got a fifth slot that is also probably a done deal. So this should be quick. The four certainties:

Felicity Jones-The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore-Still Alice
Rosamund Pike-Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon-Wild

So that's that. The fifth slot is...perplexing. Mostly because it's probably going to go to Jennifer Aniston in Cake, which is a film that I'm not even sure actually exists. I haven't seen any trailers or advertising, I haven't seen a release date, but Aniston keeps getting nominated for prizes. Really, campaigning for an imaginary movie is such a smart move that I can't really fault her for it. That being said, the people who *have* allegedly seen this movie don't have anything nice to say about it, so why is this nomination so certain at this point? It's perplexing.

And those are basically your options. Marion Cotillard in 2 Days, 1 Night could slide in, and Amy Adams could eke out another nomination for Big Eyes, but I wouldn't count on either--the Academy's been strangely resistant to Cotillard after her win 8 years ago, and I'm not sure they'll want to give Adams nomination number 7 (a huge number for a 30-something) for a film that no one really likes.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Julianne Moore-Still Alice
Reese Witherspoon-Wild
Rosamund Pike-Gone Girl
Felicity Jones-The Theory of Everything
Jennifer Aniston-Cake
Alternates: Marion Cotillard-2 Days, 1 Night, Amy Adams-Big Eyes

Best Supporting Actor
Here's another category where just about everything's wrapped up, and the slot that isn't is an exercise in slow, creeping horror. Four just about guaranteed slots:

Ethan Hawke-Boyhood
Edward Norton-Birdman
Mark Ruffalo-Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons-Whiplash

This is a totally solid lineup, and I've got no problems with it. Look for Simmons to win, or Norton if we're lucky.

But then comes the last spot, which, like best Actress, is defaulting to something perplexing. In this instance, the perplexity stems from Robert Duvall in The Judge--a movie which nobody liked--plus, when it came out, no one even talked about this performance. So basically he's been successful so far because A) he's Robert Duvall, and B) he's campaigning, and no one else really is, which is enough for him to make it in a weak year. So who else might knock him out? Christoph Waltz in Big Eyes, maybe--most critics have complained about how over-the-top and (in some cases) awful he is here, but over-the-top/awful is sometimes exactly what Oscar wants. Josh Brolin could make it for Inherent Vice, but it's hard for me to imagine that movie having much success with voters. I'd love to see Chris Pine get some attention for Into the Woods, but that'll never happen. And maybe, just maaaaayyybe, the Academy will eschew campaign prompting and put Carell in here instead of in lead for Foxcatcher. Really, I'm fine with any of these possibilities, as long as I don't have to see The Judge.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
J.K. Simmons-Whiplash
Edward Norton-Birdman
Ethan Hawke-Boyhood
Mark Ruffalo-Foxcatcher
Robert Duvall-The Judge
Alternates: Christoph Waltz-Big Eyes, Josh Brolin-Inherent Vice

Best Supporting Actress
Thank goodness--we can leave all the perplexities and ambiguity behind and look at an honest-to-God race. There are seven women fighting for five slots, and any of them could get in or be left out. Yay! Let's look at the possibilities:

Patricia Arquette-Boyhood: Ok, I was lying when I said anyone could be left out. Arquette won't. She'll probably win. Moving on.
Jessica Chastain-A Most Violent Year: Tough call. People love her, they don't love the movie. Still, if Year shows up anywhere, it'll probably be here.
Laura Dern-Wild: I'd have been a bit more bullish on her chances a month ago, but Wild has faded like crazy. Now I'd say that she'd be lucky to get in.
Keira Knightley-The Imitation Game: Not the most interesting performance you'll ever see, but a solid one. The Academy loves supportive wife-types in this category, which helps her. Also helps her that her movie is a big threat to win best picture.
Emma Stone-Birdman: I want to be more cavalier about this one's chances, but I can't. It's a showy role, it's in a best picture frontrunner, and yet something is holding me back. Meh, she'll probably make it in.
Meryl Streep-Into the Woods: Although I've heard some critics complain about her performance, it's showy/singy/streepy enough that I'm sure she'll default in. It's Meryl Streep-the Academy would nominate her for starring in an Activia commercial.
Tilda Swinton-Snowpiercer: I am so, so surprised that we're even talking about this, but lo and behold, the glorious bonker wackiness of Snowpiercer has at least one shot at Academy recognition. I'd love to see this happen, but I'm not too convinced that it will.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Patricia Arquette-Boyhood
Meryl Streep-Into the Woods
Keira Knightley-The Imitation Game
Jessica Chastain-A Most Violent Year
Emma Stone-Birdman
Alternates: Laura Dern-Wild, Tilda Swinton-Snowpiercer



...Well that was long. Sorry. Guess I ought to get out of bed now. .....maybe. Tune in tomorrow to look at directing/screenplays, and find out if I ever motivated myself to leave my room or if I stayed willfully trapped in here like a frustrated rock hyrax!

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