Final 2019 Oscar Predictions

If you're feeling vaguely blogged out, I can't say I blame you. I also tend to feel the exhaustion down into my overworked fingertips by the time I get to the end of the big February blog week, with Oscar rearing its inevitable leviathan head, forcing me to keep my own deadlines. But what can I say? For better or worse, spending entirely too much time writing overly elaborate movie posts in February is who I am. This is my fifteenth year of doing it, and no force on this or any other earth can stop me. And why should it? The Oscars are silly, they're serious, they're too much and not enough and why should anyone care? But for all their flaws, they set the pace, and the wild-eyed, movie-crazed community that has sprung up around them is one of the best parts of my day (because yes, you can in fact follow the Oscars every single day of the year! Count your lucky stars that I'm not inflicting that on you). So here I am. I've got a whole bunch of thoughts about my precious little gold men, and I'm ready to unleash them in a confetti and red carpet-laden torrent.

So let's do it! If you're here, you know what you're in for, and what we're all in for is glorious. Do note that I tend to predict more for fun than I do accuracy. There are plenty of places online if you want the best odds on what wins every category, but over here we try and guess when the Academy might release the hounds.

Best Picture
The nominees:
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Still some uncertainty here, despite what some sources might tell you. Easy money says that 1917, the last movie out of the gate and the one that built its momentum at the perfect time, takes a quick win here. And that's certainly likely--the movie is obviously well-liked, it the right shade of noble manliness to appeal to the Academy, and it's got a snazzy technical hook to keep it in the conversation. But there are a number of nominations that a movie is supposed to get if it wants to win best picture (specifically, best director, screenplay, film editing, any acting nomination, and the Screen Actors Guild best ensemble category). Plenty of movies have won best picture after missing one of these nods, but no movie has ever won having missed more than one. And, wouldn't you know it, 1917 missed three. So bear in mind that if you call 1917 for the top prize, you're predicting something completely unprecedented.
Of course it only complicates matters that 1917's biggest competition, Parasite, would be equally unprecedented, as no film not in English has ever won best picture. Still, Parasite has *huge* pockets of support (it won the Screen Actors Guild ensemble prize as well as the American Cinema Editors prize--the first time a non-English film has won either of those prizes). If we want to spend any time talking about the old/new Academy (i.e. the pre-#oscarssowhite Academy and the 3.000 new members they've invited in the past few years in an attempt to diversify), here's where we do it, as voting for Parasite now--an already beloved movie--would make a huge statement about the kind of institution the Academy wants to be.
Other than these two? There's a sliver of a chance that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, once the presumed frontrunner, ekes out a win based on its overall likeability (voters vote for best picture with a ranked system, which means that being well liked is just as important as having a lot of passionate support). And Jojo Rabbit, for whatever infernal reason, has had a huge energy surge in the past 10-ish days (aka exactly when the ballots were due). I don't think it'll happen, but we still (for now) live in the shadow of a Jojo Rabbit best picture win.

Will Win: 1917
Could Win: Parasite
Should Win: Little Women
Should Have Been Here: One Cut of the Dead

Director
The nominees:
Bong Joon-Ho-Parasite
Sam Mendes-1917
Todd Phillips-Joker
Martin Scorsese-The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

1917's flashy one-take concept probably guarantees Mendes his second Oscar, but if the Academy really gets in a Parasite mood, Bong Joon-ho could become just the second person to win best director for a non-English film (after last year's Alfonso Cuaron/Roma). Tarantino's also a vague threat for the sentimental vote, but this is mostly Mendes' award to lose.

Will Win: Sam Mendes-1917
Could Win: Bong Joon-Ho-Parasite
Should Win: Bong Joon-Ho-Parasite
Should Have Been Here: Nadav Lapid-Synonyms

Actress
The nominees:
Cynthia Erivo-Harriet
Scarlet Johansson-Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan-Little Women
Charlize Theron-Bombshell
Renee Zellweger-Judy

The narrative will be the same for all the acting categories: there's one ironclad frontrunner, and any of them missing would be a huge upset. Each of them has won all of the four major televised awards thus far (critics choice award, golden globe, screen actors guild award, british academy award), and only one person has ever lost the Oscar after doing so. Your frontrunner here is Zellweger--so strange that no other narrative got any breathing room this year, given she already has an Oscar, and neither she nor the film is particularly beloved. Still, what can you do?

Will Win: Renee Zellweger-Judy
Could Win: Scarlet Johansson-Marriage Story
Should Win: Scarlet Johansson-Marriage Story
Should Have Been Here: Lupita N'yongo-Us

Actor
The nominees:
Antonio Banderas-Pain and Glory
Leonardo Dicaprio-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver-Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix-Joker
Jonathan Pryce-The Two Popes

One of the only mercies this year is that, despite its monstrous nomination tally, Joker is unlikely to win that much. That said, the ones it might win are categories it will probably steamroll. Case in point: Phoenix here.

Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix-Joker
Could Win: Adam Driver-Marriage Story
Should Win: Adam Driver-Marriage Story
Should Have Been Here: Willem Dafoe-The Lighthouse

Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Kathy Bates-Richard Jewell
Laura Dern-Marriage Story
Scarlet Johansson-Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh-Little Women
Margot Robbie-Bombshelll

Ok, this is the one place where we might anticipate a bit of nasty, nasty chaos. Laura Dern's Oscar seems assured, and you'd be silly not to predict her. However. Marriage Story has taken a huge dive--once the frontrunner, now no one seems to talk about it, or even like it. And some people are mystified that Dern's role is the Oscar-winning performance. Enter Jojo Rabbit, a movie that has been gaining steam, and Scarlet Johansson, who is nominated twice this year (and 7 out of 11 double nominees have won Oscars in their year). So...who's to say? It's not smart to bet against any of the acting frontrunners, but this might be the place for anarchy.

Will Win: Laura Dern-Marriage Story
Could Win: Scarlett Johansson-Jojo Rabbit (though I was planning on predicting a surprise Scarjo win until the last possible second--I'm just not brave enough)
Should Win: Laura Dern-Marriage Story
Should Have Been Here: Jennifer Lopez-Hustlers (shoulda been you, Jen)

Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Tom Hanks-A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins-The Two Popes
Al Pacino-The Irishman
Joe Pesci-The Irishman
Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

No intrigue here. Pitt wins in a lazy walk.

Will Win: Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could Win: Joe Pesci-The Irishman
Should Win: Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Have Been Here: Song Kang-Ho-Parasite

Original Screenplay
The nominees:
1917
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Probably a fight between Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, depending on which the Academy decides needs more recognition. I don't imagine that 1917 will win here, but watch out if it looks to sweep.

Will Win: Parasite
Could Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: Parasite
Should Have Been Here: One Cut of the Dead

Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

Another tough-ish call. Do we get to see Greta Gerwig with an Oscar in her hands, or does Jojo Rabbit's late-breaking energy win the day? Or does The Irishman rally at the last minute? It's probably one of the first two, but just flip a coin.

Will Win: Jojo Rabbit
Could Win: Little Women
Should Win: Little Women
Should Have Been Here: Hustlers

Production Design
The nominees:
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

One big question for all the craft categories--should we expect 1917 to sweep, or should we expect some of the other best picture nominees to give it trouble? If we believe the second option is true, then look for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's big LA '69 vibes to carry the day here when pitted against the mostly outdoor shenanigans of 1917. It'd be nice to dream that Parasite has a chance, but it might be too contemporary, and the Academy rarely looks at non-period pieces in the design categories.

Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could Win: 1917
Should Win: Parasite
Should Have Been Here: Midsommar

Costume Design
The nominees:
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Once again we've got Once Upon a Time in Hollywood looking to unseat another best picture nominee, this time the big civil war gowns in Little Women. As is becoming a theme, look for Jojo Rabbit to upset here if its big energy translates into actual wins.

Will Win: Little Women
Could Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: Little Women
Should Have Been Here: Booksmart

Visual Effects
The nominees:
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker

Maybe one of the toughest categories to predict? Or at least one with the widest possible spread of winners. Generally, if a best picture nominee gets in here, it wins, unless more than one best picture nominee gets in (like this year's 1917 and The Irishman), in which case all bets are off. Still, either of those could carry the day, based on how popular they are (and 1917 is looking to be popular). That said, neither even remotely resembles the bigger, effects-driven pictures that tend to win here. The Lion King could echo The Jungle Book's 2016 victory for essentially the same concept (photoreal animals), and it's easy to forget that, despite being an atrocity against all cinema, The Lion King is one of the highest grossing and widely seen films of the year. Which brings us to Avengers: wildly popular, obscenely profitable, and never embraced by the Academy. Maybe Oscar decides that now's the time to reward the Marvel gang, or maybe they decide to continue their decade-long indifference.

Will Win: 1917
Could Win: The Lion King
Should Win: Avengers: Endgame
Should Have Been Here: Detective Pikachu

Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
1917
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

This is presumably Bombshell's to lose? Celebrity lookalike makeup and showy prosthetics tend to win out here, and Bombshell has both in spades. Look for 1917 to upset here--if it wins this, then be prepared for it to have a huge night.

Will Win: Bombshell
Could Win: 1917
Should Win: 1917
Should Have Been Here: Midsommar

Film Editing
The nominees:
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite

Ok, this is *definitely* one of the hardest of the night, as any one of these movies could win. Look to Ford v Ferrari for the easiest answer--it's got lots of showy car-race scenes, and apparently enough people loved it to get it a best picture nom, so. Editing giant and legend Thelma Schoonmaker cut The Irishman, and the Thelma love/the respect for the immense degree of difficulty involved in shaping a 210-minute movie might win out. Parasite might have the showiest editing, and everyone who sees it praises it for its pacing and suspense. Joker could take the award on account of a vague pro-action movie bias in this category, and Jojo Rabbit, like in so many other categories, could capitalize on its late-breaking popularity here. So watch your screens! If Ford or Irishman (and probably Joker as well) wins this, it means nothing for the big races. Parasite winning this doesn't automatically mean it'll win best picture, but it's hard to imagine Parasite winning best picture without triumphing here first. And if Jojo Rabbit wins, then all bets are off--go hug the ones you love, because Jojo will be coming for all the big awards.

Will Win: Joker
Could Win: Parasite
Should Win: Parasite
Should Have Been Here: Uncut Gems

Cinematography
The nominees:
1917
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Finally, after the tough categories, something easy: 1917 wins this in a walk. No way anything else takes it down.

Will Win: 1917
Could Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: The Lighthouse
Should Have Been Here: The Last Black Man in San Francisco

Original Score
The nominees:
1917
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker

Also a (fairly) easy call? Joker's got all the steam it needs to come out on top. Again, if 1917 is going to dominate the evening, than a win here would be an early indicator.

Will Win: Joker
Could Win: 1917
Should Win: 1917
Should Have Been Here: The Last Black Man in San Francisco

Sound Mixing
The nominees:
1917
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The only question--are Ford v Ferrari's very loud car races enough to push past 1917, the best picture frontrunner in a category that is traditionally very war-friendly? Maybe, but probably not.

Will Win: 1917
Could Win: Ford v Ferrari
Should Win: 1917
Should Have Been Here: The Lighthouse

Sound Editing
The nominees:
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker

Copy and paste the argument from above. It's always tempting to call a split in this situation, with each movie taking one sound award, but there's no easier way to screw over your prediction success than to all the wrong split, so I'll stick with 1917 and call it good.

Will Win: 1917
Could Win: Ford v Ferrari
Should Win: Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
Should Have Been Here: The Lighthouse

Original Song
The nominees:
"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away"-Toy Story 4
"I'm Gonna Love Me Again"-Rocketman
"I'm Standing with You"-Breakthrough
"Into the Unknown"-Frozen 2
"Stand Up"-Harriet

Oof, what an atrocious batch of nominees (and tough luck this year for song titles not starting with "I"). Conventional wisdom suggests that the Rocketman song wins, both for Elton John love and to recognize a movie that might have seemed under-recognized. I suppose "Stand Up" could win as a 'we're not voting for you for best actress, but we still like you" prize for Cynthia Erivo (who co-wrote the song), and "Into the Unknown" might win by default in a year with no particularly exciting options.

Will Win: "I'm Gonna Love Me Again"-Rocketman
Could Win: "Stand Up"-Harriet
Should Win: "Stand Up"-Harriet
Should Have Been Here: "Glasgow"-Wild Rose

Animated Film
The nominees:
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

Another tough category--anything but How to Train Your Dragon has a shot. Toy Story was the lackluster frontrunner for most of the season, with most people assuming that voters would autopilot-vote for Pixar in a year without a clear frontrunner. But then Missing Link won the golden globe, Klaus won the British academy, and I Lost My Body and Klaus dominated the Annies (the Oscars of animated movies) while Toy Story was shut out entirely. So now who knows? It's a free for all, and when there's a free for all, the winner is all too often the easiest choice. But who knows?

Will Win: Klaus
Could Win: Toy Story 4
Should Win: I Lost My Body
Should Have Been Here: Frozen 2 (which wasn't great, but I liked it and you can't stop me)

International Film
The nominees:
Corpus Christi-Poland
Honeyland-North Macedonia
Les Miserables-France
Pain and Glory-Spain
Parasite-South Korea

Easy choice--whenever a non-English language film is has a shot in the major categories, the win here is a given.

Will Win: Parasite-South Korea
Could Win: Pain and Glory-Spain
Should Win: Parasite*
Should Have Been Here: Atlantics-Senegal

*I haven't seen Les Miserables or Corpus Christi

Documentary Feature
The nominees:
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland

Whooo boy, no idea. Honeyland might have the edge, as it's the only movie here nominated in any other category, and it's critically beloved. But both For Sama and American Factory have won the lion's share of industry awards. Search me.

Will Win: Honeyland
Could Win: American Factory
Should Win: abstain (I've only seen Honeyland and American Factory, despite all of these being readily available online. I'm so bad at watching documentaries.)


And there's that! I've got 1917 as the big winner of the night with six Oscars to its name, and with at least two more possible wins waiting in the wings. Still, I've got Joker winning three just to remind us that everything is terrible.
We'll see how it turns out! The Oscars begin on Sunday at 6 PM mountain time, so tune in then to see how furious or happy we all get to be!