Final 2019 Oscar Predictions

If you're feeling vaguely blogged out, I can't say I blame you. I also tend to feel the exhaustion down into my overworked fingertips by the time I get to the end of the big February blog week, with Oscar rearing its inevitable leviathan head, forcing me to keep my own deadlines. But what can I say? For better or worse, spending entirely too much time writing overly elaborate movie posts in February is who I am. This is my fifteenth year of doing it, and no force on this or any other earth can stop me. And why should it? The Oscars are silly, they're serious, they're too much and not enough and why should anyone care? But for all their flaws, they set the pace, and the wild-eyed, movie-crazed community that has sprung up around them is one of the best parts of my day (because yes, you can in fact follow the Oscars every single day of the year! Count your lucky stars that I'm not inflicting that on you). So here I am. I've got a whole bunch of thoughts about my precious little gold men, and I'm ready to unleash them in a confetti and red carpet-laden torrent.

So let's do it! If you're here, you know what you're in for, and what we're all in for is glorious. Do note that I tend to predict more for fun than I do accuracy. There are plenty of places online if you want the best odds on what wins every category, but over here we try and guess when the Academy might release the hounds.

Best Picture
The nominees:
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Still some uncertainty here, despite what some sources might tell you. Easy money says that 1917, the last movie out of the gate and the one that built its momentum at the perfect time, takes a quick win here. And that's certainly likely--the movie is obviously well-liked, it the right shade of noble manliness to appeal to the Academy, and it's got a snazzy technical hook to keep it in the conversation. But there are a number of nominations that a movie is supposed to get if it wants to win best picture (specifically, best director, screenplay, film editing, any acting nomination, and the Screen Actors Guild best ensemble category). Plenty of movies have won best picture after missing one of these nods, but no movie has ever won having missed more than one. And, wouldn't you know it, 1917 missed three. So bear in mind that if you call 1917 for the top prize, you're predicting something completely unprecedented.
Of course it only complicates matters that 1917's biggest competition, Parasite, would be equally unprecedented, as no film not in English has ever won best picture. Still, Parasite has *huge* pockets of support (it won the Screen Actors Guild ensemble prize as well as the American Cinema Editors prize--the first time a non-English film has won either of those prizes). If we want to spend any time talking about the old/new Academy (i.e. the pre-#oscarssowhite Academy and the 3.000 new members they've invited in the past few years in an attempt to diversify), here's where we do it, as voting for Parasite now--an already beloved movie--would make a huge statement about the kind of institution the Academy wants to be.
Other than these two? There's a sliver of a chance that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, once the presumed frontrunner, ekes out a win based on its overall likeability (voters vote for best picture with a ranked system, which means that being well liked is just as important as having a lot of passionate support). And Jojo Rabbit, for whatever infernal reason, has had a huge energy surge in the past 10-ish days (aka exactly when the ballots were due). I don't think it'll happen, but we still (for now) live in the shadow of a Jojo Rabbit best picture win.

Will Win: 1917
Could Win: Parasite
Should Win: Little Women
Should Have Been Here: One Cut of the Dead

Director
The nominees:
Bong Joon-Ho-Parasite
Sam Mendes-1917
Todd Phillips-Joker
Martin Scorsese-The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

1917's flashy one-take concept probably guarantees Mendes his second Oscar, but if the Academy really gets in a Parasite mood, Bong Joon-ho could become just the second person to win best director for a non-English film (after last year's Alfonso Cuaron/Roma). Tarantino's also a vague threat for the sentimental vote, but this is mostly Mendes' award to lose.

Will Win: Sam Mendes-1917
Could Win: Bong Joon-Ho-Parasite
Should Win: Bong Joon-Ho-Parasite
Should Have Been Here: Nadav Lapid-Synonyms

Actress
The nominees:
Cynthia Erivo-Harriet
Scarlet Johansson-Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan-Little Women
Charlize Theron-Bombshell
Renee Zellweger-Judy

The narrative will be the same for all the acting categories: there's one ironclad frontrunner, and any of them missing would be a huge upset. Each of them has won all of the four major televised awards thus far (critics choice award, golden globe, screen actors guild award, british academy award), and only one person has ever lost the Oscar after doing so. Your frontrunner here is Zellweger--so strange that no other narrative got any breathing room this year, given she already has an Oscar, and neither she nor the film is particularly beloved. Still, what can you do?

Will Win: Renee Zellweger-Judy
Could Win: Scarlet Johansson-Marriage Story
Should Win: Scarlet Johansson-Marriage Story
Should Have Been Here: Lupita N'yongo-Us

Actor
The nominees:
Antonio Banderas-Pain and Glory
Leonardo Dicaprio-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver-Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix-Joker
Jonathan Pryce-The Two Popes

One of the only mercies this year is that, despite its monstrous nomination tally, Joker is unlikely to win that much. That said, the ones it might win are categories it will probably steamroll. Case in point: Phoenix here.

Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix-Joker
Could Win: Adam Driver-Marriage Story
Should Win: Adam Driver-Marriage Story
Should Have Been Here: Willem Dafoe-The Lighthouse

Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Kathy Bates-Richard Jewell
Laura Dern-Marriage Story
Scarlet Johansson-Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh-Little Women
Margot Robbie-Bombshelll

Ok, this is the one place where we might anticipate a bit of nasty, nasty chaos. Laura Dern's Oscar seems assured, and you'd be silly not to predict her. However. Marriage Story has taken a huge dive--once the frontrunner, now no one seems to talk about it, or even like it. And some people are mystified that Dern's role is the Oscar-winning performance. Enter Jojo Rabbit, a movie that has been gaining steam, and Scarlet Johansson, who is nominated twice this year (and 7 out of 11 double nominees have won Oscars in their year). So...who's to say? It's not smart to bet against any of the acting frontrunners, but this might be the place for anarchy.

Will Win: Laura Dern-Marriage Story
Could Win: Scarlett Johansson-Jojo Rabbit (though I was planning on predicting a surprise Scarjo win until the last possible second--I'm just not brave enough)
Should Win: Laura Dern-Marriage Story
Should Have Been Here: Jennifer Lopez-Hustlers (shoulda been you, Jen)

Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Tom Hanks-A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins-The Two Popes
Al Pacino-The Irishman
Joe Pesci-The Irishman
Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

No intrigue here. Pitt wins in a lazy walk.

Will Win: Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could Win: Joe Pesci-The Irishman
Should Win: Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Have Been Here: Song Kang-Ho-Parasite

Original Screenplay
The nominees:
1917
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Probably a fight between Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, depending on which the Academy decides needs more recognition. I don't imagine that 1917 will win here, but watch out if it looks to sweep.

Will Win: Parasite
Could Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: Parasite
Should Have Been Here: One Cut of the Dead

Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

Another tough-ish call. Do we get to see Greta Gerwig with an Oscar in her hands, or does Jojo Rabbit's late-breaking energy win the day? Or does The Irishman rally at the last minute? It's probably one of the first two, but just flip a coin.

Will Win: Jojo Rabbit
Could Win: Little Women
Should Win: Little Women
Should Have Been Here: Hustlers

Production Design
The nominees:
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

One big question for all the craft categories--should we expect 1917 to sweep, or should we expect some of the other best picture nominees to give it trouble? If we believe the second option is true, then look for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's big LA '69 vibes to carry the day here when pitted against the mostly outdoor shenanigans of 1917. It'd be nice to dream that Parasite has a chance, but it might be too contemporary, and the Academy rarely looks at non-period pieces in the design categories.

Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could Win: 1917
Should Win: Parasite
Should Have Been Here: Midsommar

Costume Design
The nominees:
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Once again we've got Once Upon a Time in Hollywood looking to unseat another best picture nominee, this time the big civil war gowns in Little Women. As is becoming a theme, look for Jojo Rabbit to upset here if its big energy translates into actual wins.

Will Win: Little Women
Could Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: Little Women
Should Have Been Here: Booksmart

Visual Effects
The nominees:
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker

Maybe one of the toughest categories to predict? Or at least one with the widest possible spread of winners. Generally, if a best picture nominee gets in here, it wins, unless more than one best picture nominee gets in (like this year's 1917 and The Irishman), in which case all bets are off. Still, either of those could carry the day, based on how popular they are (and 1917 is looking to be popular). That said, neither even remotely resembles the bigger, effects-driven pictures that tend to win here. The Lion King could echo The Jungle Book's 2016 victory for essentially the same concept (photoreal animals), and it's easy to forget that, despite being an atrocity against all cinema, The Lion King is one of the highest grossing and widely seen films of the year. Which brings us to Avengers: wildly popular, obscenely profitable, and never embraced by the Academy. Maybe Oscar decides that now's the time to reward the Marvel gang, or maybe they decide to continue their decade-long indifference.

Will Win: 1917
Could Win: The Lion King
Should Win: Avengers: Endgame
Should Have Been Here: Detective Pikachu

Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
1917
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

This is presumably Bombshell's to lose? Celebrity lookalike makeup and showy prosthetics tend to win out here, and Bombshell has both in spades. Look for 1917 to upset here--if it wins this, then be prepared for it to have a huge night.

Will Win: Bombshell
Could Win: 1917
Should Win: 1917
Should Have Been Here: Midsommar

Film Editing
The nominees:
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite

Ok, this is *definitely* one of the hardest of the night, as any one of these movies could win. Look to Ford v Ferrari for the easiest answer--it's got lots of showy car-race scenes, and apparently enough people loved it to get it a best picture nom, so. Editing giant and legend Thelma Schoonmaker cut The Irishman, and the Thelma love/the respect for the immense degree of difficulty involved in shaping a 210-minute movie might win out. Parasite might have the showiest editing, and everyone who sees it praises it for its pacing and suspense. Joker could take the award on account of a vague pro-action movie bias in this category, and Jojo Rabbit, like in so many other categories, could capitalize on its late-breaking popularity here. So watch your screens! If Ford or Irishman (and probably Joker as well) wins this, it means nothing for the big races. Parasite winning this doesn't automatically mean it'll win best picture, but it's hard to imagine Parasite winning best picture without triumphing here first. And if Jojo Rabbit wins, then all bets are off--go hug the ones you love, because Jojo will be coming for all the big awards.

Will Win: Joker
Could Win: Parasite
Should Win: Parasite
Should Have Been Here: Uncut Gems

Cinematography
The nominees:
1917
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Finally, after the tough categories, something easy: 1917 wins this in a walk. No way anything else takes it down.

Will Win: 1917
Could Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: The Lighthouse
Should Have Been Here: The Last Black Man in San Francisco

Original Score
The nominees:
1917
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker

Also a (fairly) easy call? Joker's got all the steam it needs to come out on top. Again, if 1917 is going to dominate the evening, than a win here would be an early indicator.

Will Win: Joker
Could Win: 1917
Should Win: 1917
Should Have Been Here: The Last Black Man in San Francisco

Sound Mixing
The nominees:
1917
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The only question--are Ford v Ferrari's very loud car races enough to push past 1917, the best picture frontrunner in a category that is traditionally very war-friendly? Maybe, but probably not.

Will Win: 1917
Could Win: Ford v Ferrari
Should Win: 1917
Should Have Been Here: The Lighthouse

Sound Editing
The nominees:
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker

Copy and paste the argument from above. It's always tempting to call a split in this situation, with each movie taking one sound award, but there's no easier way to screw over your prediction success than to all the wrong split, so I'll stick with 1917 and call it good.

Will Win: 1917
Could Win: Ford v Ferrari
Should Win: Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
Should Have Been Here: The Lighthouse

Original Song
The nominees:
"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away"-Toy Story 4
"I'm Gonna Love Me Again"-Rocketman
"I'm Standing with You"-Breakthrough
"Into the Unknown"-Frozen 2
"Stand Up"-Harriet

Oof, what an atrocious batch of nominees (and tough luck this year for song titles not starting with "I"). Conventional wisdom suggests that the Rocketman song wins, both for Elton John love and to recognize a movie that might have seemed under-recognized. I suppose "Stand Up" could win as a 'we're not voting for you for best actress, but we still like you" prize for Cynthia Erivo (who co-wrote the song), and "Into the Unknown" might win by default in a year with no particularly exciting options.

Will Win: "I'm Gonna Love Me Again"-Rocketman
Could Win: "Stand Up"-Harriet
Should Win: "Stand Up"-Harriet
Should Have Been Here: "Glasgow"-Wild Rose

Animated Film
The nominees:
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

Another tough category--anything but How to Train Your Dragon has a shot. Toy Story was the lackluster frontrunner for most of the season, with most people assuming that voters would autopilot-vote for Pixar in a year without a clear frontrunner. But then Missing Link won the golden globe, Klaus won the British academy, and I Lost My Body and Klaus dominated the Annies (the Oscars of animated movies) while Toy Story was shut out entirely. So now who knows? It's a free for all, and when there's a free for all, the winner is all too often the easiest choice. But who knows?

Will Win: Klaus
Could Win: Toy Story 4
Should Win: I Lost My Body
Should Have Been Here: Frozen 2 (which wasn't great, but I liked it and you can't stop me)

International Film
The nominees:
Corpus Christi-Poland
Honeyland-North Macedonia
Les Miserables-France
Pain and Glory-Spain
Parasite-South Korea

Easy choice--whenever a non-English language film is has a shot in the major categories, the win here is a given.

Will Win: Parasite-South Korea
Could Win: Pain and Glory-Spain
Should Win: Parasite*
Should Have Been Here: Atlantics-Senegal

*I haven't seen Les Miserables or Corpus Christi

Documentary Feature
The nominees:
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland

Whooo boy, no idea. Honeyland might have the edge, as it's the only movie here nominated in any other category, and it's critically beloved. But both For Sama and American Factory have won the lion's share of industry awards. Search me.

Will Win: Honeyland
Could Win: American Factory
Should Win: abstain (I've only seen Honeyland and American Factory, despite all of these being readily available online. I'm so bad at watching documentaries.)


And there's that! I've got 1917 as the big winner of the night with six Oscars to its name, and with at least two more possible wins waiting in the wings. Still, I've got Joker winning three just to remind us that everything is terrible.
We'll see how it turns out! The Oscars begin on Sunday at 6 PM mountain time, so tune in then to see how furious or happy we all get to be!

Oscar Nominations: Hell is Other People('s Movie Taste)

Ok, well, whoooo boy this morning is a whole mood. I was vaguely optimistic last night about the nominations, and hot damn have I learned a valuable lesson about optimism. To be fair (for whatever reason), this Oscar season is weirdly truncated. The Oscars are normally in the last week of February, but this year they're on February 9th, which means that everything has been moved up accordingly. So, if we're being generous, we can just say that the Academy didn't have time to see very many films. And it shows in the nominations--there are four movies with 10 or more nominations, which is the all-time record for the number of movies with double-digit nomination hauls in one year. That speaks how little the wealth got spread around this morning...but doesn't address that what they did nominate gets pretty trash.

Also worth noting: we talked yesterday about how much of a boy year this would be, but we didn't anticipate to what extent it would be a boy year. Big snubs abound, and most of them happened to films made by or about women, hooray! Well, there's nothing to do but rip off this testosterone-soaked band-aid, so let's see what we've got.

Note: I'll put an asterisk next to the nominees I predicted correctly.

Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman*
Jojo Rabbit*
Joker*
Little Women*
Marriage Story*
1917*
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Parasite*

I don't want to focus only on the bad, so I'm going to go scream Ford v Ferrari and Joker's stupid, stupid names into a paper bag and come back. After that, I'm going to go weep quietly into my pillow while sobbing The Farewell and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood's names. And with that out of the way, things are mostly...ok? Little Women, Marriage Story, and Parasite (which becomes only the 3rd Asian film to be nominated in best picture, after The Last Emperor and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, and The Last Emperor is stretching it) are all spectacular, I like 1917 quite a bit, and The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... both have their virtues. Also Jojo Rabbit is here (which will tragically be a recurring sentiment). Commercial hits fare well here, as Joker, Once Upon a Time... and Ford v Ferrari were bonafide hits, and 1917 is on its way to becoming one. Parasite also ought to count, as it's the highest-grossing foreign-language film since Pan's Labyrinth in 2006.

Early Winner Prediction: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Director
Bong Joon-Ho-Parasite*
Sam Mendes-1917*
Todd Phillips-Joker
Martin Scorsese-The Irishman*
Quentin Tarantino-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*

Going back to scream into my paper bag until the power of my screaming destroys it because Todd Goddamn Phillips is here, so sorry everyone, movies are cancelled forever. Kind of fun in an apocalyptic way how Phillips gets to compete in the same category as Scorsese for a movie that is a *very* heavy Scorsese homage/rip-off. And speaking of rip-offs, let's spare a thought for Greta Gerwig, Marielle Heller, Celine Sciamma, Lorene Scarafia, Matti Diop, and all the other women whose movies just couldn't compete with the dancing sad clown boy.

Early winner prediction: Quentin Tarantino-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Actress
Cynthia Erivo-Harriet*
Scarlett Johannson-Marriage Story*
Saoirse Ronan-Little Women*
Charlize Theron-Bombshell*
Renee Zellweger-Judy*

Gutted but not surprised that Lupita Nyong'o's titanic turn in Us was ignored here, but glad that Saoirse Ronan aka The Greatest Face in Hollywood made it in after all. I guess this is Zellweger's to lose--no one really loves her or the movie, but there apparently aren't any other narratives available. Note that Cynthia Erivo's nomination is the one very thin line keeping the Academy from another complete Oscars So White catastrophe (and even then, it's worth arguing that one nomination in twenty doesn't really show that the problem has been addressed). And, as someone on twitter pointed out, that the only person of color to get nominated was nominated for playing Harriet Tubman feels like a joke that's too on the nose.

Early winner prediction: Renee Zellweger-Judy

Actor
Antonio Banderas-Pain and Glory
Leonardo Dicaprio-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Adam Driver-Marriage Story*
Joaquin Phoenix-Joker*
Jonathan Pryce-The Two Popes*

I'm of two moods about this category. On the one hand, I'm thrilled that Banderas and Dicaprio got in, and I think Driver is also fantastic--three of the best acting nominations of the morning. And yet I actively dislike Joaquin Phoenix's performance, and I think Jonathan Pryce is arguably our worst acclaimed actor. So it's a wash, I guess?

Early winner prediction: Joaquin Phoenix-Joker (gross)

Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates-Richard Jewell
Laura Dern-Marriage Story*
Scarlett Johannson-Jojo Rabbit*
Florence Pugh-Little Women*
Margot Robbie-Bombshell*

The very first nomination of the morning was Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell, and that's how I knew right away that we'd be in for a bumpy road. This definitely qualifies as the Academy's annual 'screw you, Joe' tradition, as a) Richard Jewell *just* left almost all the theaters in Nashville, which will make it difficult to see to satiate my Oscar completism, and b) I would honestly rather get pulled apart by wild horses than have to sit through Richard Jewell. And for what? So they could shut out Jennifer Lopez and Zhao Shuzhen? What a world. Hooray for Florence Pugh and Little Women though!

Early winner prediction: Laura Dern-Marriage Story

Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks-A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood*
Anthony Hopkins-The Two Popes*
Al Pacino-The Irishman*
Joe Pesci-The Irishman*
Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*

What a stacked category--all former winners, except Pitt, who will change that in a month's time. Pitt is also the youngest nominee in this category at a fresh 56--they really went for the veterans this year. Wonderful to see Tom Hanks finally break his post-2000 Oscar drought, though it's utterly ridiculous that he's the lone nomination for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.

Early winner prediction: Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Original Screenplay
Knives Out*
Marriage Story*
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Parasite*

1917 showing up here shows us that they *really* loved it (or just only saw five movies and voted for them in every category), as it's not necessarily a writer's showcase. Still struggling to make peace with how The Farewell didn't make it here, or in any category. This might be the thing I'm most angry about this morning, and I'm certainly not wanting for reasons to be angry here.

Early winner prediction: Parasite

Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman*
Jojo Rabbit*
Joker*
Little Women*
The Two Popes*

The usual suspects, then. Glad I didn't act on my last-minute instincts to predict a Two Popes shutout. (Glad in the sense that I got my predictions correct, not glad in the sense that I'm happy that The Two Popes showed up this morning, as the movie is garbage.) Is this an easy win for The Irishman, or dare we hope that enthusiasm for it fades so we can see Greta Gerwig give an Oscar speech?

Early winner prediction: The Irishman

Production Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917*
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Parasite

I really fluffed the predictions here, but then again I wasn't banking on the Academy nominating the same five or six movies in every category. Silly me! That said, Parasite's inclusion here is maybe the best unexpected nomination of the morning, and both 1917 and Once Upon a Time... would make great winners.

Early winner prediction: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Costume Design
The Irishman
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women*
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*

Did awful with predictions again. Here's where we'll really start to see the Academy's passion for a few movies take flight (or their laziness, you decide). But seriously--Dolemite Is My Name was right there, it *won* this category at the Critics Choice Awards last night, but it still couldn't pass muster?

Early winner prediction: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Visual Effects
Avengers: Endgame*
The Irishman*
The Lion King*
1917
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker*

Gutted both by the fact that The Irishman's janky de-aging made it in, and by the fact that Cats perpetual nightmare machine didn't. Seriously, just imagine the Internet if Cats had been nominated here. What a wasted opportunity. Marvel fans hoping for an Oscar send-off for the Avengers will have to go ahead and die unfulfilled, as there's no way it muscles past two best picture contenders and some photo-real dead-eyed lions.

Early winner prediction: The Lion King

Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell*
Joker*
Judy*
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917

Love to see 1917 getting the nod here. Gore and horror makeup is such an integral part of what makeup brings to Hollywood, and yet the Oscars never spring for it. So I'm glad to see all those open-chest wounds and stabs and viscera get to play with the other prosthetics for once.

Early winner prediction: Bombshell

Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari*
The Irishman*
Jojo Rabbit*
Joker*
Parasite*

Yesterday, when predicting this lineup, I said something along the lines of 'yikes, this is awful,' and seeing it now come true doesn't really change that sentiment. Fingers crossed for Parasite!

Early winner prediction: The Irishman

Cinematography
The Irishman*
Joker*
The Lighthouse*
1917*
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*

Hooray for The Lighthouse! Sure, this is its only nomination, but I'll take any opportunity I can get to watch the weird horror-comedy full of mermaid sex and bird violence crash the Oscar party. Someone who likes The Irishman better than I do will have to explain to me how it in any way should be here--how is this not one of Scorsese's flattest and least visually engaging movies? Kind of fun that cinematographer legend Roger Deakins will get his second Oscar so quickly after finally ending his decades-long losing spree two years ago, though.

Early winner prediction: 1917

Original Score
Joker*
Little Women*
1917*
Marriage Story*
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker*

The less said about this, the better, probably. John Williams has probably been using B-roll outtakes for his Star Wars scores since 2005, and yet here we are. And, as stated previously, the Marriage Story score is low-key atrocious. The others are fine enough, though I'll admit that I can't remember one lick of music from Joker.

Early winner prediction: Joker

Sound Mixing
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari*
Joker*
1917*
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*

Love to see Ad Astra here--I wasn't the movie's biggest fan, but its crafts were pretty impeccable, and it deserved more than it got. The rest exist, I suppose?

Early winner prediction: 1917

Sound Editing
Ford v Ferrari*
Joker*
1917*
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker*

Maybe it's because sound effects would be my chosen non-directing movie profession, but I am *so let down* by how bland this category is year in and year out. Where is the inventiveness or creativity? Can anyone tell me one specific sound they can still conjure in their head from Joker? Ehh. I hate The Rise of Skywalker with an all-consuming passion, but at least the Star Wars movies still have fun with their sounds.

Early winner prediction: 1917

Original Song
"I'm Standing With You"-Breakthrough
"Into the Unknown"-Frozen 2*
"Stand Up"-Harriet*
"I'm Gonna Love Myself Again"-Rocketman
"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away"-Toy Story 4

Well here we are, the nadir of all that is good and pure in this world! This category is what Dante wrote about in the final canto of his Inferno. That Toy Story 4 song nod is arguably the worst thing in the history of the Academy. In the song (entitled "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away") Randy Newman balefully croaks out the words 'I can't let you throw yourself away' while, onscreen, a character tries to stop another character from throwing himself away. This is, at best, a bad parody of a movie song. Up is down. Chew on my torso Satan, because this is my Bad Place. And speaking of, the Oscars really don't want me to see all the nominees this year. I've sat through some rough movies in Oscar's name, but watching a Christian faith drama about a little boy dying/not dying in a pond just to hear the Diane Warren power ballad over the end credits is a lot to ask. So thanks for throwing Breakthrough onto my Netflix queue, and I hope Saoirse lets all of you fall through the ice and into the frozen puddle where you belong.
(Fun, non-angry fact: in 2016, Mary J. Blige became the first person ever to be nominated for acting and original song in the same year, and since then it's happened twice more, first in 2018 for Lady Gaga/A Star is Born and now for Cynthia Erivo/Harriet.)

Early winner prediction: "I'm Gonna Love Me Again"-Rocketman

Animated Film
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World*
I Lost My Body*
Klaus
Missing Link*
Toy Story 4*

On the one hand, I'm glad that Frozen 2 missed here, because 3/5 slots in a category being taken by big-budget sequels would be depressing. On the other hand, Frozen 2 was the only one of those three sequels that I actively liked, so. Thrilled that Laika continues their nomination streak with Missing Link. Every movie the studio has ever released has been nominated here (Coraline, ParaNorman, The BoxTrolls, Kubo and the Two Strings, and Missing Link--which is one hell of a lineup).

Early winner prediction: Toy Story 4

International Film
Corpus Christi-Poland
Honeyland-North Macedonia
Les Miserables-France*
Pain and Glory-Spain*
Parasite-South Korea*

Boy, the Academy sure was refreshed by the cool taste of Catholicism this fine morning, with priest movie Corpus Christi beating out baity Holocaust movies and Matti Diop's acclaimed Atlantics. Honeyland's inclusion here is pretty exciting though, as it becomes the first movie to ever be nominated for both international film and documentary feature, and only the third documentary in the history of the category (I think).

Early winner prediction: Parasite-South Korea

Documentary Feature
American Factory*
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland*

By all accounts, this is a totally stellar lineup, but I've only seen one, so I've got my viewing cut out for me.

Early winner prediction: Honeyland


Of the non-animated, documentary, or international film nominees, I've seen almost everything that was nominated today, missing only Richard Jewell, The Lion King, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, and Breakthrough. And...yeesh. That is a rough list that the Academy wants me to work through. As for the tougher-to-cover categories, I'm still missing plenty: Klaus, Missing Link, Corpus Christi, Honeyland, Les Miserables, The Cave, The Edge of Democracy, and For Sama. While many of those are readily available, there are a couple that I have no way to watch. But we'll see! I'll keep my eyes open. I'm so close to seeing everything--animated, documentary, international, and all--before the ceremony, which I've never done before. Even excluding the last three categories, I've only ever seen everything before the show once (in 2008). But even though I'm so close, I'm just not sure I hate myself enough to marathon Richard Jewell, Breakthrough, The Lion King, and Maleficent. We'll see.

Predictions-wise, things were fairly binary. I either did very well (when I predicted that the Academy would do the most predictable thing), getting six categories entirely right (Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, and Original Score). Or I went out on a limb and fell out of the tree, totally botching three categories (I got two or fewer correct in Production Design, Costume Design, and Documentary Feature).

For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated movies:

1. Joker-11 (seriously)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood-10
3. The Irishman-10
4. 1917-10 (again, four movies in one year getting 10+ nominations is a record)
5. Parasite-6
6. Marriage Story-6
7. Little Women-6
8. Jojo Rabbit-6
9. Ford v Ferrari-4
10. The Two Popes-3

And here's a list of some movies that didn't get nominated for anything at all: The Farewell, Uncut Gems, Hustlers, Atlantics, Cats, Midsommar, Synonyms, Booksmart, Us, The Last Black Man in San Francisco, High Life, The Nightingale, A Hidden Life, Dolemite is My Name, Waves, Downton Abbey, Captain Marvel, Wild Rose, Transit, and The Souvenir.

You win some, you lose some.

And there's another year sorted! I'm sure you can tell by the tone that I didn't love this set of nominations, but how did you react? What's great? What's awful?
And because there was more than the normal amount of negativity in this post, I do want to point out that even in their darkest hours (hours that involve, I dunno, giving Joker 11 nominations or something), I still love and have fun with the Oscars. Every year, the night before the nominations, I have trouble sleeping, like a giddy little boy on Christmas Eve. After waking up 3-4 times during the night, I looked at the clock at 5.45 this morning, said 'yeah, good enough' and got ready for my silly day of Oscar stuff. It's fun, even when it's atrocious.

Oscar Predictions 2019: If No One Speaks of (Un)Remarkable Things

Welcome back to another year (our fourteenth in a row!) of me screaming from my little pit of despair about little gold men and all the movies they don't love enough. It's been (at least by my account) a stellar year for movies, but in that specific and infuriating way that totally eludes Oscar's attention. Think of 2004: things like Kill Bill, Undertow, Birth, Moolade, Shaun of the Dead, Mean Girls, I Heart Huckabees, Bad Education, and Closer all danced like deranged little sugar plum fairies for our betterment, and the Academy decided that none of them could hold a candle to, uh, Finding Neverland. My gut tells me this year will bless us all with more Finding Neverland than not. Not to give away my pending (and no doubt very hotly anticipated) best of the year lists, but I'm currently predicting that half of my current top 20 has no chance of hearing their name tomorrow.

Opening melodrama aside, however, things could also be much worse. The movies that do have a shot are still (mostly) good in their own right. There's almost nothing as execrable as last year's nightmare trifecta of Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Vice (though honestly there are few things on this or any other earth that can equal the shrieking end-times horror of having all three of those movies in best picture at once). So what's the takeaway? The new vs. old Academy discourse is still in play, though perhaps less assertively than in the past. This is a very *boy* kind of year at the Oscars (hence the screaming), which is a real shame when so many of our most interesting women filmmakers absolutely killed it this year. Will any of them get their due? Will the Academy throw us any wacky curveballs to apologize for its apparently insatiable need to shower Joker with gold (seriously, yes, this is a thing that will happen, this is the Darkest Timeline etc.)? Who's to say? Certainly not me.

As is now (new) tradition, I'm going to dump all of my predictions into one last-minute, breathless post. Bear in mind that I tend to predict more for fun than accuracy--if you're looking for good odds, go to Gold Derby. No shade here, as Gold Derby is wonderful and I use it all the time. Just saying that if you're looking for hard reporting on what is most likely, don't look here. It's always more fun to be a little silly, and I am ready to be deeply silly.

(note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood.)

Best Picture
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1917
Parasite
Joker
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
The Farewell
Alternate: Knives Out

Do I have any reason or evidence for predicting The Farewell, other than that I love it and it deserves to be here? Not really. But this year's main race is a little slipperier than normal, and as such, I'm willing to bet on some dark horses. Everything in that list down to Jojo Rabbit is ironclad at this point, and everything after it is a toss-up. Knives Out or Ford v Ferrari could easily capitalize on their populist appeal here, as could the deep pockets of support for Uncut Gems. If The Academy hates me personally (and signs indicate that they do), they'll give me a Joker/Ford v Ferrari/Richard Jewell bonanza to really make me consider drowning myself in the river.

Director
Quentin Tarantino-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese-The Irishman
Sam Mendes-1917
Bong Joon-Ho-Parasite
Benny and Josh Safdie-Uncut Gems
Alternate: Noah Baumbach-Marriage Story

Similar story as above--the top four are golden, with a manic free-for-all duking it out for the last spot. Predicting the Safdies feels like a silly move, especially since I'm not predicting any other nominations for Uncut Gems, but this seems like the kind of year that could give us a lone director nod, and Uncut Gems is just the kind of muscular, well-liked showcase to do it. Taiki Waititi/Jojo Rabbit and Todd Phillips/Joker (gag me) are big threats as well, and Greta Gerwig's Little Women is gaining momentum at just the right time. Finally, I almost went with Lulu Wang/The Farewell for my 'hey, the world is ending, why don't you dream big' slot.

Actress
Renee Zellweger-Judy
Charlize Theron-Bombshell
Scarlett Johannson-Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan-Little Women
Cynthia Erivo-Harriet
Alternate: Lupita Nyong'o-Us

The last two spots are a battle royale between the three women listed above and Awkwafina in The Farewell. I'm not confident on either of my picks, but Little Women, as I just mentioned, is surging, and I think Us is a little too genre/weird. With The Farewell fading (and Oscar's terrible track record with nominating Asian actors), that leaves room for a rising star in a critically drubbed but very serious biopic.

Actor
Joaquin Phoenix-Joker
Adam Driver-Marriage Story
Leonardo Dicaprio-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taron Egerton-Rocketman
Christian Bale-Ford v. Ferrari
Alternate: Rober De Niro-The Irishman

Maybe the hardest race of the year to predict? The top two men are locked in, and then there eight different men who all have about the same chance. Throw Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory, Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems, and Eddie Murphy/Dolemite is My Name to the four I've already got up there and just throw some darts. Because this is the Darkest Timeline, my darts are shaped like hatred, and I'll assume the Academy's are too, which means they'll give Christian Bale yet another nod for committing whatever unpardonable sins he likes on screen.

Supporting Actress
Laura Dern-Marriage Story
Margot Robbie-Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez-Hustlers
Zhao Shuzhen-The Farewell
Scarlett Johannson-Jojo Rabbit
Alternate: Florence Pugh-Little Women

I feel weirdly confident about this category. Sure, I think Lopez is primed to be the big upsetting snub of the morning, and predicting Zhao is definitely a with-my-heart kind of move, but I've got a hunch that Pugh just misses, and then who's left? Is someone still out there voting for Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell? Maggie Smith in Downton Abbey? I think if one of these five women gets booted, it'll be for a total surprise (a la Marina de Tavira last year).

Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joe Pesci-The Irishman
Al Pacino-The Irishman
Tom Hanks-A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins-The Two Popes
Alternate: Song Kang-Ho-Parasite

All's quiet....too quiet in this category. It's been these five men in just about every precursor award, and I agree that we're primed for an upset here (particularly with Hanks' beloved semi-yearly tradition of getting snubbed for seeming sure things and The Two Popes' slow and brutal death on the awards circuit), but what? Someone from the Parasite gang seems like the 'right' answer, but I *almost* threw in John Lithgow in Bombshell just see how it fits. I'm not confident to add him to my top 5, but if he does surprise tomorrow morning, you heard it here first.

Original Screenplay
Parasite
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
The Farewell
Knives Out
Alternate: Pain and Glory

Feeling pretty good about these, but look for 1917 or Uncut Gems to surprise here if either has a strong showing tomorrow. Also, fingers crossed for Booksmart--I thought it was totally out of the race, but then it made a last-second recovery, getting a Writers Guild and British Academy nomination. I still think it's too cool for the Academy, but who knows?

Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
The Two Popes
Alternate: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

It's been so tempting to call for a Two Popes total shut-out, but poor A Beautiful Day... just can't catch a break, despite being one of the year's best. Anything other than these six would be a total shock though. Richard Jewell? Hustlers? Judy? A weirdly barren year for Academy-friendly adaptations this year.

Production Design
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ad Astra
Knives Out
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Alternate: The Irishman

Definitely my silliest category, as I've predicted not one, not two, but three long shots. But my heart wants what it wants! And I've got a feeling the Academy will respond to lonely futurism of Ad Astra and the glorious muchness of Knives Out. And I've had a hunch about A Beautiful Day's painstakingly recreated Mr. Rogers neighborhoods since I saw it, so I can't give up on it now. Still, if you want to bet accurately, look for best picture heavyweights The Irishman, Joker, and Jojo Rabbit, here, or maybe Parasite if we get lucky/blessed.

Costume Design
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Little Women
Dolemite is My Name
Downton Abbey
Judy
Alternate: Joker

Another category, another group of silly hunches. But when has the Academy had a costume category without period finery and royal frocks (enter Downton)? And as hunches go, the minute I saw the Judy trailer I thought 'that's going to get nods for Actress, Costumes, and Makeup' and no one's going to get me to abandon my silly guesses from months ago. Again, look for Irishman, Joker, and Jojo to do well here, or Rocketman/Harriet if they're feeling a little more adventurous.

Visual Effects
The Lion King
Avengers: Endgame
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
The Irishman
Alita: Battle Angel
Alternate: 1917

Tough to gauge the strength of both 1917 and The Irishman in the race right now, but feel free to swap the two of those, depending on who you think has more heat. Alita feels right, even if it's been mostly forgotten. Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other finalists are Terminator: Dark Fate, Gemini Man, Captain Marvel, and Cats, if you can believe that. I'd LOVE to see Cats nominated tomorrow just to see everyone's brains fall out of their heads.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Rocketman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Alternate: Dolemite is My Name

For the first time ever, this category will have five nominees (up from three previously), and it's got me a little shook re: predictions. Who knows what the Academy will do when it's got more room to play? I've gone somewhat safe for now, with real-person-impersonating makeup and best picture contenders. Look for Dolemite or maybe Maleficent: Mistress of Evil to surprise. 1917 also has a shot, depending on its best picture heat, but this branch is weirdly resistant to gore makeup. Note: this category has also been narrowed to a 10 film shortlist. The other finalists are Downton Abbey and Little Women.

Film Editing
The Irishman
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite
Alternate: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Yikes, that's mostly hideous. It's probably silly to predict a Once Upon a Time... snub, especially given that it's arguably the front-runner to win best picture, but it feels to me like the kind of movie that's *supposed* to get an editing nod and then doesn't. It's also maybe silly to put Parasite in the top 5, but I've got no sense of how strong that movie will be tomorrow. Anywhere between 4 and 10 nominations could be on the table. There's not much wiggle room in this category, but Marriage Story and Uncut Gems could still make a play here.

Cinematography
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
The Lighthouse
Alternate: The Irishman

Am I being too harsh with The Irishman? Maybe, but it feels like the weakest of the five films that conventional wisdom suggests are on top, and this branch almost never passes on an even vaguely mainstream black and white film, so here comes The Lighthouse (and hooray for The Lighthouse! I hope it shows up at least somewhere tomorrow). Look for Little Women or Parasite as alternates, depending on how strong a morning they have.

Original Score
1917
Joker
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Alternate: Motherless Brooklyn

I almost put Motherless Brooklyn in the top five, because the Academy has to flip me one big ol' bird each year, and 'screw you, now you have to watch the terrible Edward Norton Tourette's Detective movie' feels like it could be that Big Bird. But I'm nervous that I might be under-predicting Marriage Story, so I'll keep Randy Newman's score for it in here, even if it's (in)arguably the worst part of the movie. Fingers crossed for a fun surprise like Us, Pain and Glory, or The Farewell.

Sound Mixing
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Alternate: The Irishman

Getting sick of/nervous about writing The Irishman as an alternative in every other category, but here we are. Rocketman or Judy could make a play for the music movie slot, or Avengers or Ad Astra could try for the big space movie slot.

Sound Editing
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
Avengers: Endgame
Joker
Alternate: Ad Astra

As per usual, look for movies with best picture heat like The Irishman or Once Upon a Time... to crash the party. I almost put The Lion King in the top five, but decided against it, because who wants to accidentally speak something good into the world for that movie?

Original Song
"Into the Unknown"-Frozen 2
"Stand Up"-Harriet
"Glasgow"-Wild Rose
"Spirit"-The Lion King
"A Glass of Soju"-Parasite
Alternate: "I'm Gonna Love Me Again"-Rocketman

It's risky, but I'm guessing that "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" continues the longstanding tradition of pop anthems that win the Golden Globe only to go mysteriously missing on Oscar morning. And I'm predicting "A Glass of Soju" only because the idea of the Academy trying to stage a Parasite musical number is hilarious to me.

Animated Film
Toy Story 4
Frozen 2
Missing Link
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Alternate: Abominable

Feels risky to have this category 3/5 sequels, but that's the state of the world for ya. Abominable could easily dislodge *any* of the predicted nominees (how strange that this category has nothing resembling a front-runner), and watch out for Klaus, Netflix's allegedly very pretty Santa Claus origin story.

International Film
Parasite-South Korea
Pain and Glory-Spain
Les Miserables-France
Those Who Remain-Hungary
Atlantics-Senegal
Alternate: Corpus Christi-Poland

Betting on this category's old-school Holocaust movie love to give Hungary's entry the push it needs to get past Poland's priest movie or Russia's more acclaimed Beanpole. Fingers crossed for Atlantics--maybe a little risky, but it feels right.

Documentary Feature
American Factory
Apollo 11
One Child Nation
Honeyland
Maiden
Alternate: For Sama

It's undoubtedly stupid to bet against For Sama--or any of the other top four--but I decided to assume that the conventional wisdom was wrong, and that the same five acclaimed documentaries couldn't prevail every time, so I stuck Maiden in for fun. Note: Honeyland is also on the shortlist for international film. No film (at least in recent/modern Academy history) has ever been nominated for both at the same time, though a couple documentaries have been nominated for International (née Foreign Language) film (The Missing Picture and Waltz with Bashir, just off the top of my head).



And there you have it! For those of you playing along, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood-10
Joker-9
The Irishman-7
1917-7
Marriage Story-6
Parasite-6

Incidentally, I know it's a little ridiculous for me to devote so much space to Oscar predictions when I haven't talked about my own preferences yet--and those posts, each a mind-numbing test in endurance, are certainly coming soon. I've still got quite a few movies I'd like to watch before I try and best-of madness, but expect those lists around the first week of February. In the meantime, if I could guarantee one nomination for tomorrow, it'd probably be Lupita Nyongo's bid for best actress for Us, but I've also got my fingers and toes crossed for a big morning for Little Women. And if I could deny any one nomination, it would be to stop Joker from becoming the Oscar juggernaut it apparently has to be (though Todd Phillips getting in for director would be particularly cloying). Still, if the nominations go like I'm predicting they will (which they certainly won't), we'll have a fairly inoffensive Oscar morning.

Come tomorrow, all of these words will be pointless! I'll be back tomorrow morning (or tomorrow early afternoon--I hate that the nominations are on a Monday this year, which means I have to teach instead of spending the whole morning doing Oscar stuff) to talk about just how wrong I was, and just how angry everything has made me. Until then--what are you hoping for? Share your Oscar dreams and aspirations, or your deepest Oscar fears!