Ok, well, whoooo boy this morning is a whole mood. I was vaguely optimistic last night about the nominations, and hot damn have I learned a valuable lesson about optimism. To be fair (for whatever reason), this Oscar season is weirdly truncated. The Oscars are normally in the last week of February, but this year they're on February 9th, which means that everything has been moved up accordingly. So, if we're being generous, we can just say that the Academy didn't have time to see very many films. And it shows in the nominations--there are four movies with 10 or more nominations, which is the all-time record for the number of movies with double-digit nomination hauls in one year. That speaks how little the wealth got spread around this morning...but doesn't address that what they did nominate gets pretty trash.
Also worth noting: we talked yesterday about how much of a boy year this would be, but we didn't anticipate to what extent it would be a boy year. Big snubs abound, and most of them happened to films made by or about women, hooray! Well, there's nothing to do but rip off this testosterone-soaked band-aid, so let's see what we've got.
Note: I'll put an asterisk next to the nominees I predicted correctly.
Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman*
Jojo Rabbit*
Joker*
Little Women*
Marriage Story*
1917*
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Parasite*
I don't want to focus only on the bad, so I'm going to go scream Ford v Ferrari and Joker's stupid, stupid names into a paper bag and come back. After that, I'm going to go weep quietly into my pillow while sobbing The Farewell and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood's names. And with that out of the way, things are mostly...ok? Little Women, Marriage Story, and Parasite (which becomes only the 3rd Asian film to be nominated in best picture, after The Last Emperor and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, and The Last Emperor is stretching it) are all spectacular, I like 1917 quite a bit, and The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... both have their virtues. Also Jojo Rabbit is here (which will tragically be a recurring sentiment). Commercial hits fare well here, as Joker, Once Upon a Time... and Ford v Ferrari were bonafide hits, and 1917 is on its way to becoming one. Parasite also ought to count, as it's the highest-grossing foreign-language film since Pan's Labyrinth in 2006.
Early Winner Prediction: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Director
Bong Joon-Ho-Parasite*
Sam Mendes-1917*
Todd Phillips-Joker
Martin Scorsese-The Irishman*
Quentin Tarantino-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Going back to scream into my paper bag until the power of my screaming destroys it because Todd Goddamn Phillips is here, so sorry everyone, movies are cancelled forever. Kind of fun in an apocalyptic way how Phillips gets to compete in the same category as Scorsese for a movie that is a *very* heavy Scorsese homage/rip-off. And speaking of rip-offs, let's spare a thought for Greta Gerwig, Marielle Heller, Celine Sciamma, Lorene Scarafia, Matti Diop, and all the other women whose movies just couldn't compete with the dancing sad clown boy.
Early winner prediction: Quentin Tarantino-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Actress
Cynthia Erivo-Harriet*
Scarlett Johannson-Marriage Story*
Saoirse Ronan-Little Women*
Charlize Theron-Bombshell*
Renee Zellweger-Judy*
Gutted but not surprised that Lupita Nyong'o's titanic turn in Us was ignored here, but glad that Saoirse Ronan aka The Greatest Face in Hollywood made it in after all. I guess this is Zellweger's to lose--no one really loves her or the movie, but there apparently aren't any other narratives available. Note that Cynthia Erivo's nomination is the one very thin line keeping the Academy from another complete Oscars So White catastrophe (and even then, it's worth arguing that one nomination in twenty doesn't really show that the problem has been addressed). And, as someone on twitter pointed out, that the only person of color to get nominated was nominated for playing Harriet Tubman feels like a joke that's too on the nose.
Early winner prediction: Renee Zellweger-Judy
Actor
Antonio Banderas-Pain and Glory
Leonardo Dicaprio-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Adam Driver-Marriage Story*
Joaquin Phoenix-Joker*
Jonathan Pryce-The Two Popes*
I'm of two moods about this category. On the one hand, I'm thrilled that Banderas and Dicaprio got in, and I think Driver is also fantastic--three of the best acting nominations of the morning. And yet I actively dislike Joaquin Phoenix's performance, and I think Jonathan Pryce is arguably our worst acclaimed actor. So it's a wash, I guess?
Early winner prediction: Joaquin Phoenix-Joker (gross)
Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates-Richard Jewell
Laura Dern-Marriage Story*
Scarlett Johannson-Jojo Rabbit*
Florence Pugh-Little Women*
Margot Robbie-Bombshell*
The very first nomination of the morning was Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell, and that's how I knew right away that we'd be in for a bumpy road. This definitely qualifies as the Academy's annual 'screw you, Joe' tradition, as a) Richard Jewell *just* left almost all the theaters in Nashville, which will make it difficult to see to satiate my Oscar completism, and b) I would honestly rather get pulled apart by wild horses than have to sit through Richard Jewell. And for what? So they could shut out Jennifer Lopez and Zhao Shuzhen? What a world. Hooray for Florence Pugh and Little Women though!
Early winner prediction: Laura Dern-Marriage Story
Tom Hanks-A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood*
Anthony Hopkins-The Two Popes*
Al Pacino-The Irishman*
Joe Pesci-The Irishman*
Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
What a stacked category--all former winners, except Pitt, who will change that in a month's time. Pitt is also the youngest nominee in this category at a fresh 56--they really went for the veterans this year. Wonderful to see Tom Hanks finally break his post-2000 Oscar drought, though it's utterly ridiculous that he's the lone nomination for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.
Early winner prediction: Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Original Screenplay
Knives Out*
Marriage Story*
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Parasite*
1917 showing up here shows us that they *really* loved it (or just only saw five movies and voted for them in every category), as it's not necessarily a writer's showcase. Still struggling to make peace with how The Farewell didn't make it here, or in any category. This might be the thing I'm most angry about this morning, and I'm certainly not wanting for reasons to be angry here.
Early winner prediction: Parasite
Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman*
Jojo Rabbit*
Joker*
Little Women*
The Two Popes*
The usual suspects, then. Glad I didn't act on my last-minute instincts to predict a Two Popes shutout. (Glad in the sense that I got my predictions correct, not glad in the sense that I'm happy that The Two Popes showed up this morning, as the movie is garbage.) Is this an easy win for The Irishman, or dare we hope that enthusiasm for it fades so we can see Greta Gerwig give an Oscar speech?
Early winner prediction: The Irishman
Production Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917*
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Parasite
I really fluffed the predictions here, but then again I wasn't banking on the Academy nominating the same five or six movies in every category. Silly me! That said, Parasite's inclusion here is maybe the best unexpected nomination of the morning, and both 1917 and Once Upon a Time... would make great winners.
Early winner prediction: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Costume Design
The Irishman
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women*
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Did awful with predictions again. Here's where we'll really start to see the Academy's passion for a few movies take flight (or their laziness, you decide). But seriously--Dolemite Is My Name was right there, it *won* this category at the Critics Choice Awards last night, but it still couldn't pass muster?
Early winner prediction: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Visual Effects
Avengers: Endgame*
The Irishman*
The Lion King*
1917
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker*
Gutted both by the fact that The Irishman's janky de-aging made it in, and by the fact that Cats perpetual nightmare machine didn't. Seriously, just imagine the Internet if Cats had been nominated here. What a wasted opportunity. Marvel fans hoping for an Oscar send-off for the Avengers will have to go ahead and die unfulfilled, as there's no way it muscles past two best picture contenders and some photo-real dead-eyed lions.
Early winner prediction: The Lion King
Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell*
Joker*
Judy*
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917
Love to see 1917 getting the nod here. Gore and horror makeup is such an integral part of what makeup brings to Hollywood, and yet the Oscars never spring for it. So I'm glad to see all those open-chest wounds and stabs and viscera get to play with the other prosthetics for once.
Early winner prediction: Bombshell
Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari*
The Irishman*
Jojo Rabbit*
Joker*
Parasite*
Yesterday, when predicting this lineup, I said something along the lines of 'yikes, this is awful,' and seeing it now come true doesn't really change that sentiment. Fingers crossed for Parasite!
Early winner prediction: The Irishman
Cinematography
The Irishman*
Joker*
The Lighthouse*
1917*
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Hooray for The Lighthouse! Sure, this is its only nomination, but I'll take any opportunity I can get to watch the weird horror-comedy full of mermaid sex and bird violence crash the Oscar party. Someone who likes The Irishman better than I do will have to explain to me how it in any way should be here--how is this not one of Scorsese's flattest and least visually engaging movies? Kind of fun that cinematographer legend Roger Deakins will get his second Oscar so quickly after finally ending his decades-long losing spree two years ago, though.
Early winner prediction: 1917
Original Score
Joker*
Little Women*
1917*
Marriage Story*
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker*
The less said about this, the better, probably. John Williams has probably been using B-roll outtakes for his Star Wars scores since 2005, and yet here we are. And, as stated previously, the Marriage Story score is low-key atrocious. The others are fine enough, though I'll admit that I can't remember one lick of music from Joker.
Early winner prediction: Joker
Sound Mixing
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari*
Joker*
1917*
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Love to see Ad Astra here--I wasn't the movie's biggest fan, but its crafts were pretty impeccable, and it deserved more than it got. The rest exist, I suppose?
Early winner prediction: 1917
Sound Editing
Ford v Ferrari*
Joker*
1917*
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker*
Maybe it's because sound effects would be my chosen non-directing movie profession, but I am *so let down* by how bland this category is year in and year out. Where is the inventiveness or creativity? Can anyone tell me one specific sound they can still conjure in their head from Joker? Ehh. I hate The Rise of Skywalker with an all-consuming passion, but at least the Star Wars movies still have fun with their sounds.
Early winner prediction: 1917
Original Song
"I'm Standing With You"-Breakthrough
"Into the Unknown"-Frozen 2*
"Stand Up"-Harriet*
"I'm Gonna Love Myself Again"-Rocketman
"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away"-Toy Story 4
Well here we are, the nadir of all that is good and pure in this world! This category is what Dante wrote about in the final canto of his Inferno. That Toy Story 4 song nod is arguably the worst thing in the history of the Academy. In the song (entitled "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away") Randy Newman balefully croaks out the words 'I can't let you throw yourself away' while, onscreen, a character tries to stop another character from throwing himself away. This is, at best, a bad parody of a movie song. Up is down. Chew on my torso Satan, because this is my Bad Place. And speaking of, the Oscars really don't want me to see all the nominees this year. I've sat through some rough movies in Oscar's name, but watching a Christian faith drama about a little boy dying/not dying in a pond just to hear the Diane Warren power ballad over the end credits is a lot to ask. So thanks for throwing Breakthrough onto my Netflix queue, and I hope Saoirse lets all of you fall through the ice and into the frozen puddle where you belong.
(Fun, non-angry fact: in 2016, Mary J. Blige became the first person ever to be nominated for acting and original song in the same year, and since then it's happened twice more, first in 2018 for Lady Gaga/A Star is Born and now for Cynthia Erivo/Harriet.)
Early winner prediction: "I'm Gonna Love Me Again"-Rocketman
Animated Film
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World*
I Lost My Body*
Klaus
Missing Link*
Toy Story 4*
On the one hand, I'm glad that Frozen 2 missed here, because 3/5 slots in a category being taken by big-budget sequels would be depressing. On the other hand, Frozen 2 was the only one of those three sequels that I actively liked, so. Thrilled that Laika continues their nomination streak with Missing Link. Every movie the studio has ever released has been nominated here (Coraline, ParaNorman, The BoxTrolls, Kubo and the Two Strings, and Missing Link--which is one hell of a lineup).
Early winner prediction: Toy Story 4
International Film
Corpus Christi-Poland
Honeyland-North Macedonia
Les Miserables-France*
Pain and Glory-Spain*
Parasite-South Korea*
Boy, the Academy sure was refreshed by the cool taste of Catholicism this fine morning, with priest movie Corpus Christi beating out baity Holocaust movies and Matti Diop's acclaimed Atlantics. Honeyland's inclusion here is pretty exciting though, as it becomes the first movie to ever be nominated for both international film and documentary feature, and only the third documentary in the history of the category (I think).
Early winner prediction: Parasite-South Korea
Documentary Feature
American Factory*
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland*
By all accounts, this is a totally stellar lineup, but I've only seen one, so I've got my viewing cut out for me.
Early winner prediction: Honeyland
Of the non-animated, documentary, or international film nominees, I've seen almost everything that was nominated today, missing only Richard Jewell, The Lion King, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, and Breakthrough. And...yeesh. That is a rough list that the Academy wants me to work through. As for the tougher-to-cover categories, I'm still missing plenty: Klaus, Missing Link, Corpus Christi, Honeyland, Les Miserables, The Cave, The Edge of Democracy, and For Sama. While many of those are readily available, there are a couple that I have no way to watch. But we'll see! I'll keep my eyes open. I'm so close to seeing everything--animated, documentary, international, and all--before the ceremony, which I've never done before. Even excluding the last three categories, I've only ever seen everything before the show once (in 2008). But even though I'm so close, I'm just not sure I hate myself enough to marathon Richard Jewell, Breakthrough, The Lion King, and Maleficent. We'll see.
Predictions-wise, things were fairly binary. I either did very well (when I predicted that the Academy would do the most predictable thing), getting six categories entirely right (Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, and Original Score). Or I went out on a limb and fell out of the tree, totally botching three categories (I got two or fewer correct in Production Design, Costume Design, and Documentary Feature).
For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated movies:
1. Joker-11 (seriously)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood-10
3. The Irishman-10
4. 1917-10 (again, four movies in one year getting 10+ nominations is a record)
5. Parasite-6
6. Marriage Story-6
7. Little Women-6
8. Jojo Rabbit-6
9. Ford v Ferrari-4
10. The Two Popes-3
And here's a list of some movies that didn't get nominated for anything at all: The Farewell, Uncut Gems, Hustlers, Atlantics, Cats, Midsommar, Synonyms, Booksmart, Us, The Last Black Man in San Francisco, High Life, The Nightingale, A Hidden Life, Dolemite is My Name, Waves, Downton Abbey, Captain Marvel, Wild Rose, Transit, and The Souvenir.
You win some, you lose some.
And there's another year sorted! I'm sure you can tell by the tone that I didn't love this set of nominations, but how did you react? What's great? What's awful?
And because there was more than the normal amount of negativity in this post, I do want to point out that even in their darkest hours (hours that involve, I dunno, giving Joker 11 nominations or something), I still love and have fun with the Oscars. Every year, the night before the nominations, I have trouble sleeping, like a giddy little boy on Christmas Eve. After waking up 3-4 times during the night, I looked at the clock at 5.45 this morning, said 'yeah, good enough' and got ready for my silly day of Oscar stuff. It's fun, even when it's atrocious.
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