Welcome back to another year (our fourteenth in a row!) of me screaming from my little pit of despair about little gold men and all the movies they don't love enough. It's been (at least by my account) a stellar year for movies, but in that specific and infuriating way that totally eludes Oscar's attention. Think of 2004: things like Kill Bill, Undertow, Birth, Moolade, Shaun of the Dead, Mean Girls, I Heart Huckabees, Bad Education, and Closer all danced like deranged little sugar plum fairies for our betterment, and the Academy decided that none of them could hold a candle to, uh, Finding Neverland. My gut tells me this year will bless us all with more Finding Neverland than not. Not to give away my pending (and no doubt very hotly anticipated) best of the year lists, but I'm currently predicting that half of my current top 20 has no chance of hearing their name tomorrow.
Opening melodrama aside, however, things could also be much worse. The movies that do have a shot are still (mostly) good in their own right. There's almost nothing as execrable as last year's nightmare trifecta of Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Vice (though honestly there are few things on this or any other earth that can equal the shrieking end-times horror of having all three of those movies in best picture at once). So what's the takeaway? The new vs. old Academy discourse is still in play, though perhaps less assertively than in the past. This is a very *boy* kind of year at the Oscars (hence the screaming), which is a real shame when so many of our most interesting women filmmakers absolutely killed it this year. Will any of them get their due? Will the Academy throw us any wacky curveballs to apologize for its apparently insatiable need to shower Joker with gold (seriously, yes, this is a thing that will happen, this is the Darkest Timeline etc.)? Who's to say? Certainly not me.
As is now (new) tradition, I'm going to dump all of my predictions into one last-minute, breathless post. Bear in mind that I tend to predict more for fun than accuracy--if you're looking for good odds, go to Gold Derby. No shade here, as Gold Derby is wonderful and I use it all the time. Just saying that if you're looking for hard reporting on what is most likely, don't look here. It's always more fun to be a little silly, and I am ready to be deeply silly.
(note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood.)
Best Picture
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1917
Parasite
Joker
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
The Farewell
Alternate: Knives Out
Do I have any reason or evidence for predicting The Farewell, other than that I love it and it deserves to be here? Not really. But this year's main race is a little slipperier than normal, and as such, I'm willing to bet on some dark horses. Everything in that list down to Jojo Rabbit is ironclad at this point, and everything after it is a toss-up. Knives Out or Ford v Ferrari could easily capitalize on their populist appeal here, as could the deep pockets of support for Uncut Gems. If The Academy hates me personally (and signs indicate that they do), they'll give me a Joker/Ford v Ferrari/Richard Jewell bonanza to really make me consider drowning myself in the river.
Director
Quentin Tarantino-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese-The Irishman
Sam Mendes-1917
Bong Joon-Ho-Parasite
Benny and Josh Safdie-Uncut Gems
Alternate: Noah Baumbach-Marriage Story
Similar story as above--the top four are golden, with a manic free-for-all duking it out for the last spot. Predicting the Safdies feels like a silly move, especially since I'm not predicting any other nominations for Uncut Gems, but this seems like the kind of year that could give us a lone director nod, and Uncut Gems is just the kind of muscular, well-liked showcase to do it. Taiki Waititi/Jojo Rabbit and Todd Phillips/Joker (gag me) are big threats as well, and Greta Gerwig's Little Women is gaining momentum at just the right time. Finally, I almost went with Lulu Wang/The Farewell for my 'hey, the world is ending, why don't you dream big' slot.
Actress
Renee Zellweger-Judy
Charlize Theron-Bombshell
Scarlett Johannson-Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan-Little Women
Cynthia Erivo-Harriet
Alternate: Lupita Nyong'o-Us
The last two spots are a battle royale between the three women listed above and Awkwafina in The Farewell. I'm not confident on either of my picks, but Little Women, as I just mentioned, is surging, and I think Us is a little too genre/weird. With The Farewell fading (and Oscar's terrible track record with nominating Asian actors), that leaves room for a rising star in a critically drubbed but very serious biopic.
Actor
Joaquin Phoenix-Joker
Adam Driver-Marriage Story
Leonardo Dicaprio-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taron Egerton-Rocketman
Christian Bale-Ford v. Ferrari
Alternate: Rober De Niro-The Irishman
Maybe the hardest race of the year to predict? The top two men are locked in, and then there eight different men who all have about the same chance. Throw Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory, Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems, and Eddie Murphy/Dolemite is My Name to the four I've already got up there and just throw some darts. Because this is the Darkest Timeline, my darts are shaped like hatred, and I'll assume the Academy's are too, which means they'll give Christian Bale yet another nod for committing whatever unpardonable sins he likes on screen.
Supporting Actress
Laura Dern-Marriage Story
Margot Robbie-Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez-Hustlers
Zhao Shuzhen-The Farewell
Scarlett Johannson-Jojo Rabbit
Alternate: Florence Pugh-Little Women
I feel weirdly confident about this category. Sure, I think Lopez is primed to be the big upsetting snub of the morning, and predicting Zhao is definitely a with-my-heart kind of move, but I've got a hunch that Pugh just misses, and then who's left? Is someone still out there voting for Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell? Maggie Smith in Downton Abbey? I think if one of these five women gets booted, it'll be for a total surprise (a la Marina de Tavira last year).
Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joe Pesci-The Irishman
Al Pacino-The Irishman
Tom Hanks-A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins-The Two Popes
Alternate: Song Kang-Ho-Parasite
All's quiet....too quiet in this category. It's been these five men in just about every precursor award, and I agree that we're primed for an upset here (particularly with Hanks' beloved semi-yearly tradition of getting snubbed for seeming sure things and The Two Popes' slow and brutal death on the awards circuit), but what? Someone from the Parasite gang seems like the 'right' answer, but I *almost* threw in John Lithgow in Bombshell just see how it fits. I'm not confident to add him to my top 5, but if he does surprise tomorrow morning, you heard it here first.
Original Screenplay
Parasite
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
The Farewell
Knives Out
Alternate: Pain and Glory
Feeling pretty good about these, but look for 1917 or Uncut Gems to surprise here if either has a strong showing tomorrow. Also, fingers crossed for Booksmart--I thought it was totally out of the race, but then it made a last-second recovery, getting a Writers Guild and British Academy nomination. I still think it's too cool for the Academy, but who knows?
Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
The Two Popes
Alternate: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
It's been so tempting to call for a Two Popes total shut-out, but poor A Beautiful Day... just can't catch a break, despite being one of the year's best. Anything other than these six would be a total shock though. Richard Jewell? Hustlers? Judy? A weirdly barren year for Academy-friendly adaptations this year.
Production Design
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ad Astra
Knives Out
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Alternate: The Irishman
Definitely my silliest category, as I've predicted not one, not two, but three long shots. But my heart wants what it wants! And I've got a feeling the Academy will respond to lonely futurism of Ad Astra and the glorious muchness of Knives Out. And I've had a hunch about A Beautiful Day's painstakingly recreated Mr. Rogers neighborhoods since I saw it, so I can't give up on it now. Still, if you want to bet accurately, look for best picture heavyweights The Irishman, Joker, and Jojo Rabbit, here, or maybe Parasite if we get lucky/blessed.
Costume Design
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Little Women
Dolemite is My Name
Downton Abbey
Judy
Alternate: Joker
Another category, another group of silly hunches. But when has the Academy had a costume category without period finery and royal frocks (enter Downton)? And as hunches go, the minute I saw the Judy trailer I thought 'that's going to get nods for Actress, Costumes, and Makeup' and no one's going to get me to abandon my silly guesses from months ago. Again, look for Irishman, Joker, and Jojo to do well here, or Rocketman/Harriet if they're feeling a little more adventurous.
Visual Effects
The Lion King
Avengers: Endgame
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
The Irishman
Alita: Battle Angel
Alternate: 1917
Tough to gauge the strength of both 1917 and The Irishman in the race right now, but feel free to swap the two of those, depending on who you think has more heat. Alita feels right, even if it's been mostly forgotten. Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other finalists are Terminator: Dark Fate, Gemini Man, Captain Marvel, and Cats, if you can believe that. I'd LOVE to see Cats nominated tomorrow just to see everyone's brains fall out of their heads.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Rocketman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Alternate: Dolemite is My Name
For the first time ever, this category will have five nominees (up from three previously), and it's got me a little shook re: predictions. Who knows what the Academy will do when it's got more room to play? I've gone somewhat safe for now, with real-person-impersonating makeup and best picture contenders. Look for Dolemite or maybe Maleficent: Mistress of Evil to surprise. 1917 also has a shot, depending on its best picture heat, but this branch is weirdly resistant to gore makeup. Note: this category has also been narrowed to a 10 film shortlist. The other finalists are Downton Abbey and Little Women.
Film Editing
The Irishman
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite
Alternate: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Yikes, that's mostly hideous. It's probably silly to predict a Once Upon a Time... snub, especially given that it's arguably the front-runner to win best picture, but it feels to me like the kind of movie that's *supposed* to get an editing nod and then doesn't. It's also maybe silly to put Parasite in the top 5, but I've got no sense of how strong that movie will be tomorrow. Anywhere between 4 and 10 nominations could be on the table. There's not much wiggle room in this category, but Marriage Story and Uncut Gems could still make a play here.
Cinematography
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
The Lighthouse
Alternate: The Irishman
Am I being too harsh with The Irishman? Maybe, but it feels like the weakest of the five films that conventional wisdom suggests are on top, and this branch almost never passes on an even vaguely mainstream black and white film, so here comes The Lighthouse (and hooray for The Lighthouse! I hope it shows up at least somewhere tomorrow). Look for Little Women or Parasite as alternates, depending on how strong a morning they have.
Original Score
1917
Joker
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Alternate: Motherless Brooklyn
I almost put Motherless Brooklyn in the top five, because the Academy has to flip me one big ol' bird each year, and 'screw you, now you have to watch the terrible Edward Norton Tourette's Detective movie' feels like it could be that Big Bird. But I'm nervous that I might be under-predicting Marriage Story, so I'll keep Randy Newman's score for it in here, even if it's (in)arguably the worst part of the movie. Fingers crossed for a fun surprise like Us, Pain and Glory, or The Farewell.
Sound Mixing
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Alternate: The Irishman
Getting sick of/nervous about writing The Irishman as an alternative in every other category, but here we are. Rocketman or Judy could make a play for the music movie slot, or Avengers or Ad Astra could try for the big space movie slot.
Sound Editing
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
Avengers: Endgame
Joker
Alternate: Ad Astra
As per usual, look for movies with best picture heat like The Irishman or Once Upon a Time... to crash the party. I almost put The Lion King in the top five, but decided against it, because who wants to accidentally speak something good into the world for that movie?
Original Song
"Into the Unknown"-Frozen 2
"Stand Up"-Harriet
"Glasgow"-Wild Rose
"Spirit"-The Lion King
"A Glass of Soju"-Parasite
Alternate: "I'm Gonna Love Me Again"-Rocketman
It's risky, but I'm guessing that "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" continues the longstanding tradition of pop anthems that win the Golden Globe only to go mysteriously missing on Oscar morning. And I'm predicting "A Glass of Soju" only because the idea of the Academy trying to stage a Parasite musical number is hilarious to me.
Animated Film
Toy Story 4
Frozen 2
Missing Link
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Alternate: Abominable
Feels risky to have this category 3/5 sequels, but that's the state of the world for ya. Abominable could easily dislodge *any* of the predicted nominees (how strange that this category has nothing resembling a front-runner), and watch out for Klaus, Netflix's allegedly very pretty Santa Claus origin story.
International Film
Parasite-South Korea
Pain and Glory-Spain
Les Miserables-France
Those Who Remain-Hungary
Atlantics-Senegal
Alternate: Corpus Christi-Poland
Betting on this category's old-school Holocaust movie love to give Hungary's entry the push it needs to get past Poland's priest movie or Russia's more acclaimed Beanpole. Fingers crossed for Atlantics--maybe a little risky, but it feels right.
Documentary Feature
American Factory
Apollo 11
One Child Nation
Honeyland
Maiden
Alternate: For Sama
It's undoubtedly stupid to bet against For Sama--or any of the other top four--but I decided to assume that the conventional wisdom was wrong, and that the same five acclaimed documentaries couldn't prevail every time, so I stuck Maiden in for fun. Note: Honeyland is also on the shortlist for international film. No film (at least in recent/modern Academy history) has ever been nominated for both at the same time, though a couple documentaries have been nominated for International (née Foreign Language) film (The Missing Picture and Waltz with Bashir, just off the top of my head).
And there you have it! For those of you playing along, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood-10
Joker-9
The Irishman-7
1917-7
Marriage Story-6
Parasite-6
Incidentally, I know it's a little ridiculous for me to devote so much space to Oscar predictions when I haven't talked about my own preferences yet--and those posts, each a mind-numbing test in endurance, are certainly coming soon. I've still got quite a few movies I'd like to watch before I try and best-of madness, but expect those lists around the first week of February. In the meantime, if I could guarantee one nomination for tomorrow, it'd probably be Lupita Nyongo's bid for best actress for Us, but I've also got my fingers and toes crossed for a big morning for Little Women. And if I could deny any one nomination, it would be to stop Joker from becoming the Oscar juggernaut it apparently has to be (though Todd Phillips getting in for director would be particularly cloying). Still, if the nominations go like I'm predicting they will (which they certainly won't), we'll have a fairly inoffensive Oscar morning.
Come tomorrow, all of these words will be pointless! I'll be back tomorrow morning (or tomorrow early afternoon--I hate that the nominations are on a Monday this year, which means I have to teach instead of spending the whole morning doing Oscar stuff) to talk about just how wrong I was, and just how angry everything has made me. Until then--what are you hoping for? Share your Oscar dreams and aspirations, or your deepest Oscar fears!
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