Have you ever been stuck in a solid gold washing machine? And it's kind of nice, cuz like hey, solid gold, but at the same time you're still stuck in a washing machine. This, improbably, is how I feel about the nominations today. Some wonderful things, some things make me furious, and no way to separate the two as we all marinate together in our own golden-plated tragedy. But honestly, things could have been much worse: no egregiously terrible movies in best picture (just a few mediocre ones)! No Jared Leto! And realistically, they couldn't have been much better, so we'll take what we can get. This year is an interesting contrast from last year, as well. Last year we had four movies with at least 10 nominations (the all-time record for that many movies hitting double digits in one year), showing how little the Academy shopped around. This year, however, we have one movie with 10 nominations and then a world-ending seven-way tie for second place, each with 6 nominations. I haven't done the research, but I have to assume this is the biggest ever tie for second most nominated film, and six nominations is an awfully low number to hold that place. (2005 is the only of the past 20-25 years I can think of that matches that (where Brokeback Mountain held the pole position with 8, and Good Night and Good Luck and Crash tied for second with six. But even low-nomination years like 2006 and 2007 had movies in first/second place with 8 and 7 nominations.) Anyway, the statistics point to an extremely diffuse year. No one could decide on what they loved, so they went ahead and loved almost everything.
So what happened? Let's take a look. I'll put an asterisk next to the nominees I predicted correctly, but, uh, there will not be a huge number of asterisks this year. (My silliness got in the way of my prudence, as per usual.)
Best Picture
The Father*
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank*
Minari*
Nomadland*
Promising Young Woman*
Sound of Metal*
The Trial of the Chicago 7*
Absolutely thrilled for Sound of Metal, which had about as big a morning as it possibly could have, and I think that this lineup is generally strong--I don't love Trial or Mank, but you can't have everything. Nomadland/Metal//Minari/Promising Young Woman are all great choices, and Judas is strong as well. I predicted yesterday that the Judas and the Black Messiah momentum was being exaggerated, and goodness was I wrong. A solid lineup, though it's lowkey shocking to see One Night in Miami miss.
Early winner prediction: Nomadland
Director
Lee Isaac Chung-Minari*
Emerald Fennell-Promising Young Woman*
David Fincher-Mank*
Thomas Vinterberg-Another Round
Chloe Zhao-Nomadland*
Vinterberg is obviously the huge surprise here--I'd read a few people catching some Cold War/Pawlikowski vibes, but I didn't buy it. And I know people are celebrating this choice, but if I'm being honest, I kind of hate Another Round, so I'll stick myself and glower at everyone. Worth pointing out that this is the first ever year with two women in this category (and they now bring the final tally of women nominees here up to 7, meaning this year contains about 30% of all women every nominated for best director). Still, again, a solid lineup, though this Vinterberg nomination, coupled with last year's crime against decency/Todd Phillips for Joker nom, it's safe to say that the best way to score an unlikely best director nod is to get a middle-aged white man to dance around in public for your movie.
Early winner prediction: Chloe Zhao-Nomadland
Actress
Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*
Andray Day-The United States vs. Billie Holliday*
Vanessa Kirby-Pieces of a Woman*
Frances McDormand-Nomadland*
Carey Mulligan-Promising Young Woman*
This category zigged where we expected it to zig, and zagged where we expected it to do what we expected it to do, so here we are. Still, though the nominations were written on the wall some months ago, I don't want to undersell how volatile this category could be still. Almost any of these women could win (except Kirby)--it'll be neat to see how the narratives play out in the next month.
Early winner prediction: Carey Mulligan-Promising Young Woman
Actor
Riz Ahmed-Sound of Metal*
Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*
Anthony Hopkins-The Father*
Gary Oldman-Mank
Steven Yeun-Minari
What an all-time bummer that we've got another lackadaisical Oldman campaign gently floating him into this category, like a baby's diaper drifting down the Mississippi. Otherwise, this is a stellar lineup. Extremely thrilled for Ahmed and Yeun, who are both fantastic and due, and for Boseman to get his recognition. Yeun becomes the first Asian-American ever nominated in this category.
Early winner prediction: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm*
Glenn Close-Hillbilly Elegy*
Olivia Colman-The Father*
Amanda Seyfried-Mank*
Youn Yuh-jung-Minari*
Another category that played out as expected, but from here on out it's fireworks, nothing but fireworks. Anyone could win--and whereas in best actress, while that's technically true, someone's out ahead, every one of these women has about as good a shot as the others (...well, maybe not dear, blesséd Amanda Seyfried, for whom I am elated but Is probably running from 5th place). I've mentioned this before, but the only thing funnier than Glenn Close's storied and prestigious career culminating with a win for Hillbilly-ass Elegy is Olivia Colman beating to an Oscar twice in three years.
Early winner prediction: Glenn Close-Hillbilly Elegy
Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen-The Trial of the Chicago 7*
Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah*
Leslie Odom Jr.-One Night in Miami*
Paul Raci-Sound of Metal*
Lakeith Stanfield-Judas and the Black Messiah*
I don't think anyone saw that Lakeith Stanfield nomination coming at all. It shows how strong Judas and the Black Messiah's energy is right now--we'll see how far that will carry it over the next month. Also maybe a very shady move on the Academy's part? One way to sidestep the 'Daniel Kaluuya is a leading role!' outcry online is to put literally everyone in the movie into supporting. Why not, I guess? Also, nothing made me punch the air in joy this morning more than hearing Raci's name called out. So, so deserving, and it wasn't at all guaranteed. Interesting note: if Chadwick Boseman had been nominated here for Da 5 Bloods (something I had predicted), he would have become the only actor other than James Dean to receive two posthumous nominations. As he didn't, James Dean keeps his record, which has stood for 65 years.
It's worth taking a moment to note the diversity in this year's nominations. There are 6 black actors nominated, which is a record, as well as three other people of color, showing that, for one year at least, the Academy found a way its general anti-Asian bias in the acting categories. While this is all great, I'm not sure we should pat the Academy's back too hard, in that they tend vote for what's in front of them. 2020's prestige movie narrative was dominated by films by and about people of color, as well as films directed by women, and that's reflected (to some extent) in these nominations. But it's all too easy to forget last year, in which those same kinds of films were just as available, but largely ignored in favor of safer choices. Or we can think back to 2018, when Green Book won best picture. Point being, we can applaud the Academy for trying to change how they view and shape the film community while still being clear-eyed about the fact that these nominations might have gone very differently if the Academy had had more options.
Early winner prediction: Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah
Original Screenplay
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari*
Promising Young Woman*
Sound of Metal*
The Trial of the Chicago 7*
The runaway narrative of this morning/the past couple weeks of Oscar campaign has got to be the sleeper success of Sound of Metal and Judas and the Black Messiah, which both ended up punching for over what their weight class seemed to be. And what a good-looking category it is! Shame the (arguably) least interesting entry will take it all.
Early winner prediction: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Adapted Screenplay
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm*
The Father*
Nomadland*
One Night in Miami*
The White Tiger
Mostly as expected. I should have seen The White Tiger coming in this category, but went with my heart/First Cow (which went home empty-handed this morning--what movies are these voters watching?). While my very silly 'Borat for best picture' narrative didn't pan out (which is really for the best), it did hit here, showing that it did have some real strength coming in.
Early winner prediction: Nomadland
Production Design
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*
Mank*
News of the World*
Tenet
It wouldn't be an Oscar year without a Chris Nolan movie showing up more times than you want it! No, that's unfair--Tenet did underperform, and I'd have been happy to see it show up in other categories. I just like celebrating Christopher Nolan's failures, and am still mad about the fact that he encouraged us all to go die/spread the plague in theaters last summer just so we could see this very stupid movie.
Early winner prediction: Mank
Costume Design
Emma*
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*
Mank*
Mulan*
Pinocchio
Mulan keeps the Disney live-action remake tradition of getting a nomination for costumes so Disney can keep calling them Oscar-Nominated Classics (TM). Intrigued and vaguely unsettled by Pinocchio. I haven't seen the movie, and I'm sure it's very deserving, but hot damn, how many people watched this puppet movie without telling me.
Early winner prediction: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Visual Effects
Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky*
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan*
Tenet*
Feels atrocious on so many levels that Welcome to Chechnya's work was left out in favor of Mulan's, I dunno, flappy digital chicken. I did smile seeing Love and Monsters here, though. The effects are a little jenky, but they're a treat, and the film itself is lovely. Glad it got something that might widen its fanbase a little, or at least give it a reason not to fade into dust forever.
Early winner prediction: Tenet
Makeup and Hairstyling
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy*
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*
Mank
Pinocchio*
Again with the uncanny puppet, though I've heard that the makeup really is staggering, so no complaints here. It's just fun to kick a puppet while it's (not) down. Tickled that Hillbilly Elegy's legitimately ridiculous work is cited here, which means that it'll probably win.
Early winner prediction: Hillbilly Elegy
Film Editing
The Father
Nomadland*
Promising Young Woman*
Sound of Metal*
The Trial of the Chicago 7*
The Father pops up again--another late-breaking success story that didn't have to go as hard as it did. Would love the opportunity to see it (without driving to an AMC 30 miles away or whatever and then stewing in that sweet maskless Southern air), but we'll have to wait for now. Fun fact--no movie, at least since the Academy firmed up their categories at the end of the 30s/beginning of the 40s, has ever won best picture without being nominated for at least three of the following categories: directing, writing, any acting, and film editing. Being nominated for all four is best, but not mandatory, but if you can't get at least three, you can't win (or would have to take an unprecedent win). This year, only Nomadland and Promising Young Woman are up in all four, making them your statistical frontrunners. Sound of Metal, The Father, and Trial of the Chicago 7 each are only missing director, while Minari is only missing film editing. ...Then again, statistics aren't going to play too much of a role this year, as Nomadland probably already has the big win all sewn up.
Early winner prediction: Sound of Metal
Cinematography
Judas and the Black Messiah
News of the World*
Nomadland*
Mank*
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Absolutely liiiiviiid that Trial of the Chicago 7 scored here, but what can you do? But seriously, show me someone who watches that movie and First Cow, Minari, Tenet, or any of the dozens of less plausible candidates and then decides that Trial is the prettier movie, and I'll show you someone who needs to have spiders put in their lunchbox.
Early winner prediction: Nomadland
Original Score
Da 5 Bloods
Mank*
Minari*
News of the World*
Soul*
Somewhat surprising to see Da 5 Bloods show up here, as it's the only nomination it managed this morning, and was hardly the likeliest place for it to score. Worth pointing out that Da 5 Bloods getting in meant leaving The Midnight Sky out in the old, and thank goodness for that! It's got to be one of the worst studio scores to come along in some time--shocking, in that light, that they managed to not nominate it. Kind of a shame that now they can't have Nick Jonas to play some wacky xylophone cues on stage in tribute to this movie though.
Early winner prediction: Soul
Sound
Greyhound
Mank*
News of the World*
Soul
Sound of Metal*
Should have seen Soul coming from a mile away. It's got music! Animation! Action sequences! So many things that this branch loves. Also, I guess this means I have to try and watch Greyhound now.
Early winner prediction: Sound of Metal
Original Song
"Fight for You"-Judas and the Black Messiah*
"Hear My Voice"-The Trial of the Chicago 7
"Husavik"-Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga*
"Io si"-The Life Behind*
"Speak Now"-One Night in Miami*
A somewhat dire referendum on this category that three out of five nominees are vaguely worded inspirational ballads that play over the credits. Nothing against those songs, per se, just that, despite the fixes they've tried with this category in the past few years, it's still one that only begrudgingly looks at songwriting as an art that contributes to filmmaking, and even then, only under duress. Still, I'm thrilled for "Husavik," and cannot wait to see Diane Warren manifest from a ball of screaming white light over zoom. (Honestly, I love Diane Warren, I love "Io si," and I just want to get her that Oscar. Remember when she almost won with Lady Gaga for "Til It Happens to You" and then lost to Sam Smith? Why have we not burned the world down yet)
Early winner prediction: "Speak Now"-One Night in Miami
Animated Film
Onward*
Over the Moon*
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul*
Wolfwalkers*
As suspected, they ended up avoiding the smaller international releases this year, though Wolfwalkers and Farmageddon get to retain their overseas cred. Soul's gonna take this in a walk, but it is a real shame that Wolfwalkers doesn't have more of a chance. Maybe Cartoon Saloon, the Irish studio behind Wolfwalkers that has been churning out astounding, eye-popping work for over a decade with nary an Oscar to show for it, can team up with Diane Warren to destroy LA over zoom.
Early winner prediction: Soul
International Feature
Another Round-Denmark*
Better Days-Hong Kong
Collective-Romania*
The Man Who Sold His Skin-Tunisia
Quo Vadis, Aida?-Bosnia and Herzegovina*
Somehow, improbably, shockingly, this is Romania's first nomination, despite it being a hotbed of new and exciting film activity for more than two decades now. Heck, they changed the rules for this category after 2007 when Romania's 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days missed the final cut, and it's still taken this long to get Romania into the top 5. Better late than never, I suppose, but also better when it's supposed to happen than 14 years later.
Early winner prediction: Another Round-Denmark
Documentary Feature
Collective*
Crip Camp*
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher*
Time*
My Octopus Teacher hunch payed off, much to my own dismay. Something of a drab display here. Plenty of good (or even very good) movies, but it still feels like a let-down, with so many important, acclaimed, and/or strange movies left on the wayside. Interesting note: last year, we made a lot of noise about Honeyland being the first movie ever nominated for both international feature and documentary feature, and then Collective goes ahead and pulls the same trick the very next year.
Early winner prediction: Time
Of the non-animated, international, or documentary nominees, I've seen most of what's nominated, missing only The Father, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, The White Tiger, Pinocchio, The One and Only Ivan, and Greyhound, all of which are pretty accessible (give or take Ivan and Greyhound, but that's what free trials are for). As for the tougher to cover categories, I'm still missing the majority: Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Better Days, The Man Who Sold His Skin, Quo Vadis, Aida?, The Mole Agent, and My Octopus Teacher. These are mostly accessible, though The Man Who Sold His Skin and Quo Vadis, Aidia? might prove troublesome.
Predictions-wise, I didn't do as poorly as I originally though. I only got actress, supporting actress, and supporting actor totally right, but also didn't totally fail anywhere (I got at least 3 or 4 correct in every category).
For those counting at home, here' a list of the most nominated movies:
1. Mank-10 (despite it clearly underperforming)
And then a six-way tie for second place, organized by a vague order of what categories are most important in my head:
2. Minari-6
3. Nomadland-6
4. The Father-6
5. Sound of Metal-6
6. Judas and the Black Messiah-6
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7-6
8. Promising Young Woman-5
9. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom-5
10. News of the World-4
And here's a few movies that weren't nominated for anything: First Cow, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Dick Johnson is Dead, The Mauritanian, Bacurau, The Invisible Man, Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar, Relic, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, Wonder Woman 1984, Birds of Prey, The Forty-Year-Old Version, La Llorona, The Assistant, Miss Juneteenth, Bloody Nose, Empty Pockets, Welcome to Chechnya, Palm Springs.
You win some, you lose some.
And there's another year sorted! How did you react? Which nominations are great? Which are awful? What's missing?
I will say that every year, no matter how good or bad the nominations are, I still love and have fun with the Oscars. Every year, no matter what, I have trouble sleeping through the night before Oscar nominations, like a kid before Christmas. (This year, I managed to sleep until 5.00 before saying 'that'll do' and starting my day.) It's silly and it's trash, but it's my silly trash, and I adore it.
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