Look at us indeed. One year ago, back when the end of the world seemed fresh and scary, rather than something you have to do on the way to your outdoor spin class, the future of the Oscars seemed dire, and only got direr (more dire?) (real dumb and bad) as the year continued. How do we have Oscars in a year when movies disappear? Is there a point to framing cinematic excellence (a terrible word as is) for cinematic releases when everyone watched all of them on Netflix, one eye on their phone? How can we possibly have an awards ceremony where everyone gathers in one place?
Well, that was last March. We were young and unversed in the art of half-assing your way through a global crisis. The answers to the question above proved, if not easy, then at least doable. Movies went online! Everything was fine (except for everything that wasn't, which was most everything)! Awards ceremonies on zoom work fine! In fact, in a few ways they're better--seeing someone on a stage is great, but seeing them accept an award surrounded by their family, all crying happy tears, and then they have to pick up their cat, is something else. Point is, the Oscars are going to do what they always do: celebrate filmmaking by finding a whole host of milquetoast movies to applaud. (Who's ready to see another Oscar nomination for Jared Leto? Drench me, Lucifer!)
Despite the circumstances, the nominations we're looking at for tomorrow will probably no stranger or more upsetting than usual. The last Oscar ceremony was on February 9th, 2020, and the coming season will end at the Dolby Theater/in Chloe Zhao's living room on April 25th, which means that we find ourselves in the second longest Oscar season of all time. (Before 1933, Oscar years went from summer to summer, so the first ceremony celebrated 1928-29, the next 1929-30, etc. This was changed for the 1933 Oscars, which saw a gargantuan 17-month Oscar year from August of 1932 to March of 1933.) (I suppose both this year and the 32/33 season are dwarfed by the first Oscar season, which stretched from the invention of fire to 1927, and resulted in a shocking zero nominations for anyone.) Given the extra-long year, you'd be forgiven for thinking that pure chaos was about to descend on the Oscars, and we'd all love to believe it, but it looks as though the extra time has just given the nominations a little more time to solidify. Don't get me wrong, we're still primed for a little weirdness, and I desperately hope that some Academy members decided to cry havok and change their zoom backgrounds to the dogs of war, but we'll see. At the very least, it looks like we'll get mostly mediocre to good films up for the major awards, which is a privilege for which we should all be thankful (I will never, never get over 2018's Green Book/Bohemian Rhapsody/Vice perfect storm of horrors.) I think this is the first year in...3 years, maybe? that I'm not predicting one of my 5 least favorite movies of the year to be nominated for best picture. Truly, nature is healing. So let's see what ugly scars remain on Oscar's shiny little body after we pull the bandages off.
As is now tradition, I'm going to dump all of my predictions at once in a great unholy pile. Bear in mind that I try to predict for fun as much as for accuracy--there are places on the internet to go if you want mathematical precision, but all I've got to offer you is burning dumpsters and a can-do attitude. It's always more funny to be silly, and there's nothing I want more from my life than silliness.
(note: all predictions are ranked in order of likelihood--so the first movie is the most likely, and so on from there.)
Best Picture
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Mank
One Night in Miami
The Father
Sound of Metal
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Alternate: Judas and the Black Messiah
Well, I promised you silliness, so I've gone ahead and started with a whole heaping dollop of it. The first six film (Nomandland through One Night...) are presumably locks, though I've heard some whispers of Mank's flagging buzz causing it to miss out here. The Father is a risk, but I've heard enough people impressed about it that I'll include it, even if no one has seen it, and Sound of Metal has been building enough steam that I feel good about its chances (even if it's just because I want it to happen). Which leads us to a whole bevy of films to either fill the last slot or overtake one of the weaker films I'm predicting. Judas and The Black Messiah has a ton of momentum right now, and is probably the smart choice (even over Sound of Metal), but I've got a hunch. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, which once looked like a thoroughbred, now seems to be grasping at whatever it can. It could still appear here, but don't count on it. Critical favorites like Da 5 Bloods and First Cow could theoretically still surprise, as could The Mauritanian, which is another late-breaking movie with momentum. But my silly pick is for Borat to break through. It's got lots of heat in other categories, and it's been a part of the conversation for months, which means that Academy members have been side-eying their Borat screeners for months. Plus, it's fits the moment politically, and its Rudy Guliani moment made a whole lot of noise. Most people are predicting that Judas will be the 'political' nominee (a somewhat belittling slot for a strong movie, but hey), but I can't help but feel like the Academy's 'political' moment will manifest itself as replacing a furious BLM/racial inequity and injustice movie with a 'boy, Republicans suck' movie (I think there's more to Borat than that, but whatever). We'll see! Come lavish me, chaos hounds!
Director
Chloe Zhao-Nomadland
Aaron Sorkin-The Trial of the Chicago 7
Lee Isaac Chung-Minari
David Fincher-Mank
Emerald Fennell-Promising Young Woman
Alternate: Regina King-One Night in Miami
Lots of potential for movement. I'm only really confident about Zhao, although is also probably locked in. Beyond that, everyone has arguments against them. Mank has run out of steam, the Academy can be strange and standoffish with cinema from Asia/Asians in general, which might hurt Minari, even though it seems like an across the board threat. Fennell is probably safer than I have her now, given the popularity of her movie, and how fiercely, visibly directed it is. King is a safe choice, and could edge someone out by virtue of that alone, and Spike Lee could always surprise, if they feel like making up for past snubs. Look for Florian Zeller/The Father, Darius Marder/Sound of Metal, and/or Shaka King/Judas and the Black Messiah if any of their films have a bigger morning than I'm expecting.
Actress
Frances McDormand-Nomadland
Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Carey Mulligan-Promising Young Woman
Andra Day-The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Vanessa Kirby-Pieces of a Woman
Alternate: Yeri Han-Minari
This category feels more locked than any other to me. People have been talking about how Vanessa Kirby's doesn't have enough voters behind it, but I don't buy it, and even if I did, I don't think any of her competitors can yield enough passion to give her the boot. Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead? Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy? None of these movies have had great seasons, so I'll pick a surprise Han nod as a spoiler.
Actor
Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins-The Father
Riz Ahmed-Sound of Metal
Steven Yeun-Minari
Ben Affleck-The Way Back
Alternate: Gary Oldman-Mank
The first four are probably safe (though say a prayer for Steven Yeun, despite his film's strength--there have been fewer than 15 Asian actors ever nominated in any acting category, and Yeun would be the first Asian-American ever nominated in this category). The last spot is a total free-for-all, so I've decided to swing for the fences and predict that Ben Affleck's attempts at a career renaissance pay off. Oldman's a much likelier pick, but I feel like the Mank fatigue, and the performance itself, will keep it out of the top 5. Look for Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods, Tahar Rahim/The Mauritanian, or even Mads Mikkelsen/Another Round as surprises.
Supporting Actress
Olivia Colman-The Father
Youn Yuh-jung-Minari
Maria Bakalova-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Glenn Close-Hillbilly Elegy
Alternate: Dominique Fishback-Judas and the Black Messiah
An absolutely bonkers category, in that none of the women here are locked, and any combination of seven woman wouldn't surprise me (throw in Jodie Foster/The Mauritanian to complete the set). It feels foolish not to predict Fishback, but I'm betting that the 'get Close an Oscar' furor is enough to carry her over the top for a ...dubious film and performance. And we haven't even discussed who's going to win (the answer, again, is literally any of these seven women)! What a wild year for this category.
Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah
Sacha Baron Cohen-The Trial of the Chicago 7
Leslie Odom Jr.-One Night in Miami
Chadwick Boseman-Da 5 Bloods
Paul Raci-Sound of Metal
Alternate: David Strathairn-Nomadland
Another category I feel pretty confident about, though Boseman might be vulnerable (how far does the posthumous honoring go), as does Raci (not particularly famous, in a small-ish role in a film that may or may not have a big morning). Still, I'm not convinced by the strength of any of their competitors, though Strathairn and the pint-sized Alan Kim from Minari have the best chance. I'm trying not to speak anything good into the world for Jared Leto, so instead of discussing his Oscar chances here, I'll just imagine him getting chased by lions.
Original Screenplay
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Mank
Sound of Metal
Alternate: Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Almost decided to go for Never Rarely as a surprise nominee, but ultimately decided that I couldn't have Sound of Metal as a best picture nominee and still predict that it doesn't get in here. Mank is still weak, but it feels 'writerly' enough to get a pass. Look for Judas and the Black Messiah to appear here if it's going to make a play for best picture, and look for Palm Springs as a huge surprise that doesn't look that surprising in retrospect.
Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Father
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
First Cow
Alternate: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Very irresponsible for me to have First Cow over Ma Rainey or The White Tiger, but what am I if not irresponsible? Borat is hardly guaranteed, but again, I couldn't predict it for best picture and then not predict it here.
Production Design
Mank
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mulan
Alternate: The Father
Not feeling at all confident about this category, but it feels like it's primed for a bunch of surprises that I don't see right now. Look to Tenet or The Midnight Sky for genre nods, or Emma or The Personal History of David Copperfield if they're feeling period. Beyond that...? We'll see--it really does feel like there's an obvious surprise hovering just out of reach.
Costume Design
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Emma
Mulan
Mank
The Glorias
Alternate: The Personal History of David Copperfield
Also not too confident about this one, but you never know. The Glorias is a somewhat left-field pick, but literally every movie Julie Taymor has ever made has been nominated in this category, so why stop now? Ammonite or Promising Young Woman would be lovely choices to upset, and News of the World or Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey could sneak up on us.
Visual Effects
Tenet
The Midnight Sky
Mank
The One and Only Ivan
Welcome to Chechnya
Alternate: Mulan
Swapped out Mulan as a last-second whim, but it feels right. Chechnya's a risk, and would be the first documentary ever nominated in this category, but we can dream, can't we? Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other finalists are Birds of Prey, Love and Monsters, Soul, and Bloodshot.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Hillbilly Elegy
Pinnochio
Birds of Prey
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Alternate: Mank
Another chaotic category, so more darts thrown at the poor beleaguered wall. Pinnochio may be a little-seen Italian movie, but its prosthetic work is apparently phenomenal, so I feel like it's safe here (or as safe as any Italian movie about prosthetic puppet faces can be, for anyone). Mank and Emma feel like smarter guesses to me, but Jingle Jangle keeps showing up at industry awards, on longlists, etc.--people are clearly watching it, and I think it can capitalize on that at least somewhere. Also banking on this category/Birds of Prey to give the Academy its semiannual chance to be like 'we nominated a batman, we're not a regular Academy, we're a cool Academy.' Note: this category has also been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other finalists are The Little Things, The Glorias, and One Night in Miami.
Film Editing
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland
Minari
Mank
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
Alternate: Mank
Nothing revelatory here--this category is the notoriously bound to best picture, so I've taken the frontrunners and added a movie that's got some snazzier editing. Mank would be an obvious pick for an upset here, and they could go for Tenet/The Father if they're feeling wacky, or Judas and the Black Messiah if it's got more juice than I'm predicting it to have.
Cinematography
Nomadland
Mank
News of the World
Tenet
First Cow
Alternate: Judas and the Black Messiah
Three locks and a free for all for the final two spots, so I opted for chaos again. Desperately hoping that Trial of the Chicago 7 doesn't show up here, despite its many threats to that effect. Also hoping for a wacky surprise (like Cherry at the American Society of Cinematographers awards, but better). First Cow would already be that, kind of, but let's dream even bigger! I'm No Longer Here! Possessor! The world is this category's oyster!
Original Score
Soul
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Mank
Minari
Alternate: Tenet
After a few bouts of chaos, I've opted to play it safe here, though I suppose I could get safer yet (taking out Minari for Trial of the Chicago 7, as apparently every bland aspect of that movie is going to get its day in the sun). One movie to keep an eye on is Blizzard of Souls, a Latvian movie that made this category's longlist, and has gotten attention elsewhere.
Sound
Sound of Metal
Mank
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland
Alternate: Tenet
Assuming that the Academy's flattening of its sound awards (they condensed sound mixing and sound editing into one award this year) is going to result in the flattest possible category, in which best picture hopefuls get in by virtue of being best picture hopefuls (much like what had been happening with sound mixing previously). This is nothing against any of the predicted nominees, all of which have interesting sound designs in their own right, but.
Original Song
"Speak Now"-One Night in Miami
"Io si"-The Live Ahead
"Fight for You"-Judas and the Black Messiah
"Husavik"-Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
"Make it Work"-Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Alternate: "Turntables"-All In: The Fight for Democracy
Choosing to dream here, with both past-pastiche musical yawp "Husavik" and Diane Warren's latest attempt to throw her ailing carapace at Oscar, "Io si." If you're expecting a nominee with less in the way of carapace/joie de vivre, then look for The Trial of the Chicago 7's "Hear My Voice" (again, how many categories are going to subject us to lifting up something middling from that film and pretending that it's solved politics forever).
Animated Film
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Onward
Over the Moon
The Croods: New Age
Alternate: A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
It would be awfully atypical for this branch to exclude all the international entries (like Ride Your Wave, Bombay Rose, or The Willoughbys) in favor of big American studio offerings and sequels, but none of the smaller titles feel like they've really got the juice this year. Plus, one of the category's locks, Wolfwalkers, is Irish, so maybe it feels worldwide enough for the branch to nominate it and then nominate The Croods and still sleep at night. (...I liked the first Croods movie, I'm sure this one would be a totally respectable nominee.)
International Feature
Another Round-Denmark
Quo Vadis, Aida?-Bosnia and Herzegovina
Collective-Romania
Dear Comrades!-Russia
Night of the Kings-Ivory Coast
Alternate: A Sun-Taiwan
Have I skewed too much toward Eastern Europe? Maybe. Have I made a mistake by leaving out both critical darling La Llorona/Guatemala and easy get Two of Us/France? Also maybe. But I have made my bed, and my bed is in the Ivory-ass Coast, so there.
Documentary Feature
Time
Crip Camp
Collective
Boys State
My Octopus Teacher
Alternate: Welcome to Chechnya
Big choice on my part to include My Octopus Teacher over critical successes like Chechnya, Dick Johnson is Dead, or The Truffle Hunters, but I'm trying it. I'm basing my prediction entirely on how popular the movie was over the summer, and that everyone who sees it seems to love it (or at least want to talk about it). That, and the novelty factor (that still isn't too much of a novelty to put people off--sorry, Dick Johnson, I love you anyway).
And there you have it! For those of you playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:
Mank-10
Minari-7
Nomadland-7
The Trial of the Chicago 7-6
Sound of Metal-6
In the meantime, if I could guarantee any nominations, it'd be either Paul Raci in supporting actor for Sound of Metal or Delroy Lindo in actor for Da 5 Bloods, though I'll also spare a thought for First Cow getting in anywhere. And If I could guarantee any one nomination didn't happen, I'd use my power to send Jared Leto to the watery abyss from whence he came, or, barring that, try and bring Trial of the Chicago 7's final tally down a bit.
And that's that! In 13 hours, all of this will be meaningless! I'll be back tomorrow morning to unpack the actual nominations--it's like Christmas morning, only I have more fun than at actual Christmas, and everyone else has no fun at all! Then we'll see how wrong I was (so wrong), and how angry we all need to be!
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