Saturday, February 23, 2019

Best of 2018, part 3: craft categories

If, like I claimed (and proved!) yesterday, I'm terrible at expressing what I like about movies' marquee selling points--the glamour, the witty dialogue, the, uh, well choreographed but subtle directorial flourishes--then the opposite is also true: I can talk for decades about how much I enjoy all the less frequently celebrated aspects of film-making. Want to get really excited about the earrings in Sorry to Bother You? You're in the right place! Want to talk to someone about the delightful yarbling bear noises in Annihilation? Way ahead of you. Are you barely able to contain your gushing enthusiasm for Margot Robbie's weepy pustule makeup in Mary Queen of Scots? GET IN LINE. Today's all about honoring the people who might never get mobbed on the red carpet or get to be a spokesperson for L'oreal (because you're worth it) (...is that l'oreal? Someone spokesperson me), but they are the reason all of your favorite movies exist like they do, and I am flat-out thrilled to get to chat about it for a bit.

In interest of putting a face on some of these things, I've added some visuals to the lists. They should enlarge when you click on them, but I make no promises, as my technical skills are less than garbage.

Note: I didn't include pictures or videos for film editing or the sound categories, because I don't really know how to capture film editing compellingly in a way that didn't waste either my or your time, and I didn't have the resources to make audio clips for the sound categories (which I would still love to do some year).

Note Note: I've included a brief description of some categories, in case you need a couple signposts for what I'm talking about.


Production Design
(designing, creating, and building the world of the movie--sets, props, art direction, etc.)

5. Crazy Rich Asians-The draw is right there in the title, and the film delivers, providing set-piece after set-piece of Dionysian excess that throws itself at you like a candy-striped privilege parade.

4. The Favourite-Rabbit hutch palatial fantasies, all oppressive tapestries and lye-soaked floors and eternal ramrod halls with no seeming end or beginning.

3. First Reformed-Am I totally bonkers for putting this exercise in absolute minimalism so high--are all those empty rooms that impressive? First Reformed needs to feel like the book of Revelations come to plague yellow life, and that would have been impossible without the festering wounds its characters are forced to inhabit.

2. Suspiria-A haunted kaleidoscope house of horrors--how can floors look this malevolent? Restaurants, cottages, walls lost in time, drifting helplessly from one supernova to another.

1. Black Panther-a dizzying and joyous anti-history whose technocratic window dressing never strays from the rigorous research the team did in designing a world based on actual sub-Saharan cultures.

Honorable mention: what's that on the horizon? It's THE ENTIRE CITY OF LONDON ON WHEELS in Mortal Engines

Costume Design
5. Mary Poppins Returns-like 70% of this nomination is for those jaw-dropping expressionist drawn costumes in the china bowl scene, but the rest of the costumes--all primary colors and sharp lines--are no slouch either.

4. Suspiria-Delicious ugliness for an ugly world: Tilda's bedsheet monochromatic smocks, the coven's Hanna Schygulla knock-offs, and that mind-boggling and perfect pelvis-bedecked dress Susie wears to the last dinner scene (pictured below).

3. A Simple Favor-Tearaway suits! Glass Shard Business Casual! Dorky mom vlogger skirts! Every outfit here is perfect.

2. Crazy Rich Asians-more oozing decadence, this time in fabrics that smell like cocoa butter and cash. And there's such a streak of casual wackiness here--everything Awkwafina and her on-screen family wears is totally nuts, and I'm here for it.
1. Black Panther-I'm sorry, is there any other right answer here? (Spoiler alert--no.) Costumes as electric and overflowing with creativity as they are essential to signaling the characters inside them--and all while pointing everyone's attention back to the cultures that inspired them. This is top tier legend stuff.

Honorable mention: I *hated* leaving The Favourite's architectural and sarcastic finery out of this category, but that's the way it shook out.

Visual Effects
(Both practical effects--e.g. things created in-camera--and CGI (animating, compositing, modeling, etc.)

5. Ready Player One-sure, I'm not always convinced by some of the more gumby-esque character moments, but the pristine created environments warrant mention (like the Shining scene below, which was done entirely in computer). ...That said, it's not necessarily a banner year in this category when this movie makes the top 5 (from what I've seen, at least).

4. Mission: Impossible - Fallout-for its completely unhinged commitment to practical effects: crashing helicopters, drowning villains, nauseous wire work, and everything in between.


3. Mary Poppins Returns-Like in costumes, this makes it in almost entirely due to that absolutely ravishing china bowl sequence, but who can deny the mid-air joyous singalong at the end either?


2. Ant-Man and the Wasp-thank goodness for Marvel movies with humor! Much of Ant-Man's success comes from its reality-breaking visuals that toggle effortlessly between the giant and the microscopic without upstaging the actors or plot.


1. Avengers: Infinity War-I may hate this movie, but I can recognize game. Thanos is a singular accomplishment, and the rest of meticulously rendered maelstrom ain't bad either.


Honorable mention: big ol' cities in Mortal Engines

Makeup and Hairstyling
3. Mary Queen of Scots-who doesn't love Margot Robbie fully poxed and powdered, or Saoirse Ronan with a period-inappropriate updo?

2. Black Panther-Killmonger's body testimonies, ceremonial war paints, little character details--all great work here.


1. Suspiria-Most of the press has been for turning Tilda Swinton into an old man (pictured below), and that's definitely great, but I'm much more excited by the world-ending horror gore (Olga's death scene! Viscera! Dislocating jaws! The stuff of nightmares) and the equally apocalyptic stage makeup (any given dancer from the 'Volk' number would be anyone's worst nightmare if encountered in a back alley).


Honorable mention: period western grossness in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Film Editing
(Cutting--generally responsible for a film's pace, continuity, keeping the audience focused on the right details, and keeping a consistent emotional and visual tone.)

5. Widows-knife-edge tension and relentless pacing that knows just when to pause for breath, and just when to grind its knuckles a little deeper beneath your ribs.
4. Cold War-a quietly unsettling tempo that never allows you to settle comfortably into one timeline--note how scenes begin and end abruptly and unexpectedly, as even the sound struggles to track where (and when) it should be, and the little slivers of blackness that punctuate the entire affair.
3. Minding the Gap-decades of archival footage forged into a canny narrative that toys with audience expectations--the film's narrative arc refuses to reveal itself until the audience's tether to the movie they thought they were seeing has been well and truly severed.
2. BlacKkKlansman-a propulsive film that never struggles to juggle genres or tones, skipping lightly from comedy to horror without leaving its audience behind. Extra points for its casual violation of chronologies, in which 100 years of footage and history (Birth of a Nation to 2017) are skillfully interwoven.
1. A Star is Born-The kind of cutting that should guide a film about music (*cough*, Bohemian Rhapsody is an atrocity, *cough*), guiding our eyes without pulling them out, keeping the music engaging without letting it overwhelm the movie, and keeping an arguably overstuffed narrative as light on its feet as could be.

Honorable mention: The Favorite makes us fear confusion and accidents

Cinematography
(Essentially how pretty a movie is. Lighting, composition, camera choreography, etc.)
5. Suspiria-a movie that totally internalized the New German Cinema aesthetic and then vomited it out onto a pile of dirty needles.

4. First Man-equal parts grandeur and rattling intimacy, First Man captures the broad strokes of the impossible scope required to send a man to the moon, as well as the cover-your-eyes immediacy inherent to locking yourself into a rocket-propelled capsule.


3. A Star is Born-the loveliest lighting of the year? Floods of blues and purples and reds that write emotion in color.


2. Cold War-super tempting to put this one in the #1 slot, as its stark compositions that isolate its characters in various prisons are some of the most arresting images of the year...


1. Roma--..but it was ultimately impossible to deny Roma's sheer audacity and overwhelming beauty. Just look at this movie! What a crime that it was hardly released in movie theaters.


Honorable mention: once again, The Favourite is on the outside looking in, this time with its candlelit depravity and fish-eye observations

Original Score
5. Vice-While I mega-loathe this movie, Nicholas Britell's oppressive and damaged score is the only part of the whole affair that understands what it needs to be doing. It's queasy, unsettling music that keeps shifting under the movie's feet like rotten garbage, which is exactly the tone the movie needs.

4. Black Panther-a raucous mix of tribal drums, chanting, hip hop beats, and traditional string accompaniment, Ludwig Göransson's music works as emotional through-line, as killer hype music, and as the inspirational anthem every good hero needs.

3. If Beale Street Could Talk-Oh look, Nicholas Britell's back on the list! This time, its with a movie that wears its score like a winter coat--amplifying and intensifying what's there, but with a gentle warmth.

2. Suspiria-I'm sure you're getting sick of hearing about how great Suspiria is by now, so suffice to say that the music crawls under your skin and dies there--and is lovely while doing it.
(Note: for some reason, this soundtrack refuses to show up on Youtube, but this one piece still gives you a great taste of what you're in for: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpULWBT1WEg)

1. Eighth Grade-I am beyond thrilled that a score as confrontational and over the top and out-and-out bonkers as this one made it into the movies in 2019--and in a movie about kids, no less! This music is a statement: on the ups and downs of adolescence, on the everyday apocalypses fought inside your head, and on the inherent ridiculousness on devaluing narratives about youth.

Honorable mention: the shrill and desperate cries of Annihilation (another really painful exclusion in a year full of great scores)

Sound Mixing
(Blending the four elements of movie sound--dialogue, ambient noise, sound effects, music--into one cohesive and compelling track.)
5. Roma-the Big World--everything you can't touch--and the Little World--everything you can--join hands and walk across a desert. In the distance, screams, but they don't mind, because they can't.
4. Ready Player One-I am now and have always been a sucker for well-choreographed aural chaos, and what was more chaotic this year than Ready Player One? That initial car chase sequence alone (the first trial) presents enough drum-banging insanity to get me through any given week.
3. A Quiet Place-In space, no one can hear you scream, but on Earth everything can, and every note you sing is a deadly crescendoing symphony of noise preparing to rip through the atmosphere.
2. Eighth Grade-This movie is like the inside of an eighth grader's head: it is LOUD. Levels cranked to punish your innermost self as the world imposes its own draconian order on the way you try to navigate the world.
1. First Man-Speaking of draconian symphonies--First Man conducts its own cacophonous miasma of shivering plates, yowling flames, and chattering teeth. Totally transporting work.

Honorable mention: the wonderfully thumpy fisticuffs in Mission: Impossible - Fallout

Sound Editing

(Creating the sound effects for a film--all the things that need to be added in post-production.)

5. Solo-Honestly, I'm just a serial nominator of Star Wars movies in this category, and as always, I can't turn down the beeping and the buzzing and all the other little flourishes needed to create distant galaxies.
4. Incredibles 2-it's a bit of an underwhelming movie, but the zip-bang Saturday Morning Cartooniness of it all is fed by all its sounds--think back to the malevolent hypnotic screens or Elastigirl's chipper separating motorcycle.
3. Annihilation-if the only sound in the entire movie were the sound the freaky mutant bear makes, then Annihilation would still deserve a spot here, but it also gets credit for the melancholic warbles of the alien world--all muted howls trying to impose themselves where they don't belong.
2. Avengers: Infinity War-the whispering hiss of Thanos' illusions, the pop rock incantations of Iron Man's vast menagerie of exploding toys, and the not insignificant joys attached to listening to Thanos rip apart an entire moon with his bare hand.
1. First Man-Copy and paste what I said above--all the details knit together to create such an immersive aural environment are completely staggering.

Honorable mention: underwater silliness in Aquaman

Original Song
5. "Ashes"-Deadpool 2-Yeah, like I was gonna pass up a massive and sweeping Celine Dion power ballad, even if the movie tries to ironically? Joke's on you, Deadpool, Celine is beyond irony.

4. "All the Stars"-Black Panther-an appropriately two-handed credits anthem from Pulitzer winner Kendrick Lamar--both ebullient and conflicted, questioning the idea of celebration on the heels of a seemingly triumphant narrative.

3. "Unmade"-Suspiria-Oh, you thought you were done with Suspiria? Well strap in, because here's another nomination for the uexpectedly elegiac and weeping piano setup for one of the film's most violent moments.

2. "Suspirium"-Suspiria-MORE SUSPIRIA. You will never escape. While "Unmade" is maybe more necessary to the narrative, how do I turn down this absolutely gorgeous ballad that sets the scene for the whole movie? (Real talk, why am I not re-watching this movie right this very instant.)

1. "Shallow"-A Star is Born-No surprises here. All of our lives our now forever divided into before-Shallow and after-Shallow, and before-Shallow has no meaning. Now everyone join me in yawping along with Gaga one more time before the oscars!

As an aside, how absolutely fantastic is this category? Each of these five is a totally essential part of your existence, even if you don't know it.

Honorable mention: grandiose and silly cowboy ruminations with "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs


Well, that's the last of the lists for the year, if you can believe it (and I don't know about you, but I can definitely believe it). Sometime tomorrow (in the morning, I assume), I'll rush out some final Oscar predictions, but this here is our farewell to the 2018 cinematic year! Tomorrow night is Oscars New Years Eve, and come Monday we (...or just I) can finally look toward all the movie gifts that 2019 has in store for us.

For those playing along at home, here are the movies that showed up most frequently in these lists:

Suspiria-10
The Favourite-8
Black Panther-8
Roma-6
Can You Ever Forgive Me?-5
Eight Grade-5
A Star is Born-5

As for most wins, Suspiria walked away with four (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Makeup), while The Favourite, Black Panther, First Man, and A Star is Born each claimed two apiece. 

And there we have it! Here's to a wonderful year at the movies (and the chance to get to see them all)!

Thursday, February 21, 2019

Best of 2018, part 2: acting, directing, screenplays

It is by now a well-established fact that, for some reason, I am garbage when it comes to writing in interesting ways about the big and fancy elements of film-making that everyone pays attention to and loves (aka acting, writing, and directing). Would you like to read 500 words on why the ambient sound in Eighth Grade is a vital and unmissable contribution to the narrative of human progress? Great, because that's totally what I'm going to post after today's post. For whatever reason, I can wax rhapsodic for decades about the below-the-line filmic craft, but, if pressed to say nice things about actors, I come up inevitably wanting. So, in order to save us all time (it's absolutely punishing and ridiculous how much I have to put off just to grab an hour to write this, and I imagine it's even worse for those of you who take time out of your busy lives to pass your eyes over these silly little scribbles), I'm going to just go ahead and not try to be compelling about these categories. Rather than writing a few thousand words, I'll just present my top 5 in each category, followed by some brief comments on the whole field. I tried this format out last year, and I think it went fairly well, so I'm primed trot it out again.

So here we go: I've queued up the Greatest Showman soundtrack for the 50th time (why is this my go-to movie-writing music), I've made some lists, and I'm ready for love.
(Of course Zac Efron chimed in on the soundtrack once I wrote that. Take me Zac! Take me away from this place!).

Best Actress
5. Melissa McCarthy-Can You Ever Forgive Me
4. Emma Stone-The Favourite
3. Olivia Colman-The Favourite
2. Carey Mulligan-Wildlife
1. Toni Colette-Hereditary

Honorable mention: Regina Hall-Support the Girls

What a spectacular category--and the next five in my list would have been just as great (sorry ____ Julia Roberts, Viola Davis, Elsie Fisher, Constance Wu et al). Special kudos should be given to the raucous and fleet-footed duets in The Favourite, as well as McCarthy proving (again) how talented she is, and depths from which she can pull. But this category belongs to the top two women (both of whom I had listed as #1 in the course of the year). Carey Mulligan is arguably one of the most underrated young actresses working, and her mid-life crisis mother in Wildlife is a singular and vivid construction. But I have to give Colette the slight edge--maybe for her dinner monologue, maybe for convincingly working through, around, and without her grief while making ghoulish miniatures, and definitely for the way her faces changes in one pivotal ending scene.

Actor
5. Tomasz Kot-Cold War
4. Lucas Hedges-Ben is Back
3. Ryan Gosling-First Man
2. Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born
1. Ethan Hawke-First Reformed

Honorable mention: Ah-In Yoo-Burning

I'll admit that this category has some of the less interesting offerings of the year (a fact no doubt compounded by how many movies from this year I've yet to see), so it was the easiest thing in the world to give the gold to Hawke's genius unhinged man of the cloth--a performance massive and undeniable enough to win any competition in most years (except, apparently, the Oscars, who would rather give their award to a pair of semi-sentient prosthetic teeth). Still, I appreciated both Gosling and Cooper playing with (and denying) their own star images in their respective films, as well as Hedges for finding a real person amid the sillier aspects of the script he worked with.

Supporting Actress
5. Dolly Wells-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. Elizabeth Debicki-Widows
3. Regina King-If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Jong-Seo Jun-Burning
1. Rachel Weisz-The Favorite

Honorable mention: Michelle Yeoh-Crazy Rich Asians

What an unbelievably difficult category to narrow down! There are a good 15 women that I considered here, and the top 8 were nigh-impossible to rank against each other (sorry, Cynthia Erivo and Blake Lively--your time is coming!). That said, the top two were miles away from the others. Jong-Seo Jun's debut performance is a legitimately haunting and constantly surprising tangle of pyschosexual tensions, bold lies, and some truly, mind-bogglingly insane choices. It was awfully tempting to put this in the top spot, but ultimately, I couldn't deny Weisz her crown--how long has it been since we've seen a director and performer as totally in sync with each other's deranged visions as Weisz and Lanthimos. She knows the exact robot affections and breakneck, playful deadness that the material requires, and she imbues the proceedings with her own hidden warmth. How often do we get a performance so dead-eyed and bold, so tongue-in-cheek and emotionally raw? How many actresses could make 18th century hip-hop dancing convincing as a wild expression of joy, a demonstration of power, and, bizarrely, an act of love? This might be the performance of the year.

Supporting Actor
5. Michael B. Jordan-Black Panther
4. Timothée Chalamet-Beautiful Boy
3. Nicholas Hoult-The Favourite
2. Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
1. Steven Yeun-Burning

Honorable mention: Josh Hamilton-Eighth Grade

Lots of great work here--points to Jordan for making the first emotionally compelling villain in Marvel history, and Timmy for winning the 'best performance in a movie I hate with every fiber of my being' award. Special points here for poor Nicholas Hoult: I absolutely love this new phase of his career (from bland pretty young thing to totally unhinged character actor), but, after this and Mad Max, what is he going to have to do to get the world at large to take him seriously as an actor? Grant's irascibly bitchy work in Can You... is fantastic, but I've got to give the laurels to Steven Yeun for his study in charismatic coiled panther deadness.

Director
5. Ryan Coogler-Black Panther
4. Bo Burnham-Eighth Grade
3. Yorgos Lanthimos-The Favourite
2. Alfonso Cuaron-Roma
1. Luca Guadagnino-Suspiria

Honorable mention: Pawel Pawlikowski-Cold War

The fifth spot was a toss-up between Coogler, Pawlikowski, and Chang-Dong Lee for Burning, but I ended up leaning toward Coogler, as it must have been a brutal and unholy fight to be allowed to inscribe that much personality, intelligence, and conflict into the tried-and-tested Marvel format. Burnham should also be getting showered in prizes for the deranged, horror-movie aesthetic he brings to a movie about middle schoolers. The top three are each towering achievements in their own right, and I almost went with Cuaron for degree of difficulty alone, but the heart wants what it wants, and what my heart apparently wants is ballerina witches killing each other in dusty basements.

Original Screenplay
5. Roma
4. Hereditary
3. Eighth Grade
2. First Reformed
1. The Favourite

Fun mix of genres and ideas here--from Roma's deeply personal story given epic scale to Hereditary's exploration of grief as a festering illness decorated with severed heads and Eighth Grade staging the War of the Roses on Instagram. It's tempting to let First Reformed's bleary doomsday calls walk away with the win here (if only to make Paul Schrader smile, as he clearly needs it), but how could anyone pick anything other than the wit, wackiness, and alien affections of The Favourite?

Adapted Screenplay
5. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
4. Burning
3. Black Panther
2. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
1. Suspiria

I admire so much about everything here: Spider-Man's go-for-broke reinterpretation is a pretty staggering achievement, as is Black Panther's herculean wrangling of a creatively exhausted story structure, or Can You...'s brittle and warm fascination with friendship in the face of oblivion. But I've already spent too many words gushing over Suspiria's endlessly complex and challenging insights, so I'll just say that any movie that grants us a line as iconic as "my daughter is the shame I smeared on the world" is never going to struggle to earn my giddy devotion.


And that's that for today! Tomorrow (or Saturday? My schedule tomorrow is ridiculous) I'll jump into the crafts categories, and that'll be (almost) it for the 2018 cinematic year! (Of course I'll still find a moment to pop by with some final Oscar predictions, because it's what I do, and I have an illness.)

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Best of 2018, part 1: Top 20

So I've discovered a fun pattern. When, in my first year of grad school, I sat down to write up my best of the year posts, I was confronted with the ugly reality that my movie enthusiasm had fallen by the wayside--call it a lack of time (which it certainly was), call it mental exhaustion in the free time that I did have (which it also certainly was), or maybe just call me lazy. At any rate, after that first year, I resolved to fix my free time movie problems: to recommit myself to movies. And (shockingly) it worked! The next year saw my end-of-year list returning to a healthy pre-grad school count. Which, of course, means that I assumed I'd solved the problem forever and never thought of it again--and when the next year rolled around, I found myself back to square one.

For the past half a decade (how have I been in grad school for half a decade and am now only maybe halfway done?), I've been careening through a cycle of 'oh no! Where did movies go?' to 'ALL the movies will be in my eyes THIS INSTANT' to 'Hooray! The world is fixed forever!' and back again--and this year just happens to be an 'I assumed I had no problem but now I'm here and I haven't seen much' year. So what do I do? Do I do the re-commitment dance anew and patch things up for another year? What can I do that'll make it stick? I wrote at some length last year about grad school tends to colonize every facet of your life, pushing the things you love out onto the street where you belong. And that hasn't changed in the interspersing 12 months, nor will it change in the next 4-5 years that I'm in school (or, spoiler alert, for the next 2-until I'm dead years after I graduate).

So here's my new little reconsecration speech--you can throw it back at me next year when I'm treading these same paths (or, if the pattern is to be believed, the year after). But for now: I am not recommitting to movies. I'm not promising to watch a movie every night, even if it kills me. I'm not going to scamper off to the theater after every class, just to make sure my numbers keep bumping up.

I am going to commit to learning how to use my damn time. There are only so many hours in the day, and no number of cannily deployed aphorisms or dizzy daydreams will add more, and this will be true for the rest of my life. So, I can be upset that I've got no time or energy for movies, or I can address the root of the problem and tackle the grumpy little puzzle box that is work/school/life management in academia. And we'll see how that goes! Watch this space.

And why, they ask, is he leading with this weepy monologue? Maybe he only saw Bohemian Rhapsody and that new Transformers movie (you know, the one with the bee) and it wasn't enough? Here's the part where I reveal that my sarcophagus reveries stem from the fact that I saw a dirty 66 movies from this calendar year. (66! they all scream, that's a neutron star of movies! That's the number of movies that killed all the Jedi!, making little Michael Bay-shaped crucifixes with their fingers as they flee.) Well, it is, as they say, my party, which means that I get to complain about whatever I want. Just as a comparison, though: 2013, my last pre-grad school year, had me clocking 92 movies at this same time.

And what about the movies themselves? While I won't pretend that this year is quite up to last year's standards, which saw me adding two movies to my top 30-40 all time (still love both of you 4ever, Lady Bird and Call Me By Your Name), as well as a veritable flotilla of high quality content to fill out the top 20. And while there are certainly riches to be had here--the top two are miles above everything else, both from this year and most others, and the top 10 itself is a writhing panoply of earthly delights. That said, this may be the first year since I began writing these (in 2007, because I am ancient and so are my fingers and opinions) that I can't scrape together a top 20 about which I am uncomplicatedly ebullient. Don't get me wrong--I'm still inflicting a top 20 (and honorable mentions!) on you, but it's not until movie #15-ish that I can really start getting 2 fast 2 enthusiastic without reservation.

If you're new here (which seems tenuous to me, but hey, maybe my loyal Eastern European fanbase are sharing me around?), here's how the format works. I'll rattle off my top 20, as mentioned above, trying to keep a weather eye cast toward brevity (more in interest of killing it horribly dead than in trying to abide by its rules). As always, I've got a self-imposed two sentence limit for each movie, but, uh, we'll see. After that, if you're still looking for ways to flagellate your sinful eyes and thoughts, I'll throw up a list of the best scenes of the year, as well as the worst movies. And then here's a departure: normally (i.e. every year other than last year) I'd put together a list of silly nominations and categories for your enjoyment, but I can tell im voraus that I'm not going to have that in me by the end of this creeping, oozing monstrosity I'm suturing together. So here's the deal: let's tentatively plan on me doing an extra categories/silly awards post after the other two I've planned. Won't that be nice?

In interest of transparency, here's a list of all the movies I've seen. Like I mentioned, I am woefully lacking in screen experiences this year, so if something you loved isn't mentioned, chances are I just took a nap or cried into my pillow instead of going to the movies that day. As always, I'm also woefully lacking in international films and documentaries. It doesn't help that the local artsy theater tends to dump many of the most acclaimed foreign-language films of the year into 2-3 day engagements during finals week. Every year it happens, and every year I brush a tear away as I wave to Border and Shoplifters and Burning as they drift by like highbrow manatees. I also haven't seen things like Capernaum, Leave No Trace, Zama, Disobedience, You Were Never Really Here, Madeline's Madeline, and other works that are available now online (or otherwise), but I just haven't made the time to catch them.

Alex Strangelove, Annihilation, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Aquaman, Avengers: Infinity War, Bad Times at the El Royale, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Beautiful Boy, Ben is Back, BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Boy Erased, Burning, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Cold War, Crazy Rich Asians, Deadpool 2, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, The Favorite, First Man, First Reformed, Free Solo, Game Night, Green Book, Halloween, Hereditary, I Am Not a Witch, If Beale Street Could Talk, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Love, Simon, Mary Poppins Returns, Mary Queen of Scots, Minding the Gap, Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol, Mortal Engines, Of Fathers and Sons, Overlord, Pacific Rim: Uprising, Paddington 2, A Quiet Place, Ready Player One, Red Sparrow, The Rider, The Ritual, Roma, Set It Up, A Simple Favor, Solo, Sorry to Bother You, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, A Star is Born, Support the Girls, Suspiria, Three Identical Strangers, Tully, Venom, Vice, We the Animals, Widows, The Wife, Wildlife, Won't You Be My Neighbor?


Alright, without further ado (as there's been much too much ado already), let's jump in!


Honorable mentions: though they didn't make the top 20, I'm grateful for the painterly and deliberate rythyms of If Beale Street Could Talk, the heart-in-throat reportage of Of Fathers and Sons, and the stellar performances trapped in a shaky script with Ben is Back.

20. A Star is Born (dir. Bradley Cooper)
Sure, the first half is stronger than the back half, and I'm admittedly not sold on two of the three key performances in the way that most are, but who am I to resist Lady Gaga's world-ending apocryphal Shallow yowls? Beautifully crafted, fiercely sung slice of all-caps STARDOM--the ups, the downs, and the lack of anything in between.

19. A Simple Favor (dir. Paul Feig)
The movie this year most likely to make unsuspecting audiences question their own concept of reality this year, A Simple Favor skips lightly from mystery thriller to buddy comedy to winky satire to, uh, incest chronicle--and it does it all in the space of one perfectly outfitted breath. Not all of Favor's moving parts move with the same precision, and the film doesn't fly as high as it could because of this, but I'm also not going to look a gift horse wearing a tearaway business suit in the mouth.

18. Paddington 2 (dir. Paul King)
Chicken Soup for the 2018 soul--a movie that vehemently asserts the values of warmth and kindness in a world increasingly unconvinced by secret sunshines. Gorgeous design, a perfectly hammy Hugh Grant flouncing around in a nun's habit, and the happiest prison this side of The Producers--what's not to like?

17. The Rider (dir. Chloe Zhao)
I'll admit that this one was a little further up the list, but, while trying to firm up my rankings, I watched this movie's last scene and it made me tear up right then and there, so I had to push The Rider up the list. While neither the beats it hits or the way it hits them are necessarily unexpected, this quiet narrative of a rodeo cowboy fighting his own post-injury body hits hard--and is all the more fascinating for being performed entirely by the Lakota cowboys and their families upon whom the movie is based.

16. Sorry to Bother You (dir. Boots Riley)
There's plenty of debate about this movie's third-act bonkers plot twist's virtues (or lack thereof), but Sorry to Bother You has enough creativity and see-sawing zaniness and ugliness to redeem itself (though I'll admit I don't hate the ending). And sidebar--I was shocked and tickled when Boots Riley (the lead vocalist of Street Sweeper Social Club, the rock/rap group of my early college years) turned up and started making movies as playful and furious as his music.

15. Widows (dir. Steve McQueen)
The best ensemble of the year (fight me) working in a trapped and brittle heist thriller in which the real thrillers were inside us all along (wherein 'real thrills' means 'the way Elizabeth Debicki side-eyes Cynthia Erivo). The villain(s)' angle is perhaps too pat (and too convoluted), but I could watch these women alternate between crying into their mirrors and running kick-ass crime schemes for the rest of my life and never get bored.

14. BlacKkKlansman (dir. Spike Lee)
It's tough to braid comedy and real world atrocity together in any kind of compelling way, but Klansman manages to both laugh at its subjects without obscuring how profoundly ugly their souls are--an incredibly difficult balancing act of mocking your racist cake without making it seem harmless. Extra points for knowing when to understate (Adam Drivers' arc, for instance) and when to overstate (that piercing Harry Belafonte monologue/Birth of a Nation montage, that beautiful final tracking shot, leading us, dead-eyed, into the screaming present).

13. Support the Girls (dir. Andrew Bujalski)
Takes a potentially toxic and ridiculous premise (day in the life at a Hooters-style restaurant) and elevates it with real humor and compassion. Support the Girls bleeds empathy--it secretly suspects everyone of being better than they think they are, even when (or especially when) they aren't acting like it.

12. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (dir. Bob Perschetti, Peter Ramsey)
Maybe the most surprising movie of the year--a no-holds-barred whirlwind firestorm, saturated with wit and humanity, and casually peacocking enough visual invention for ten lesser movies. Spider-Man realizes (perhaps for the first time in the filmic history of this character?) the wild and keening joys and pains of being a kid with a secret--how someone who doesn't fit in draws both their power and their trauma from the thing that wedges itself between them and the ones they love.

11. Black Panther (dir. Ryan Coogler)
I'm late enough to the party on discussing this one that it seems almost silly to add to the discourse, but for what it's worth: Black Panther is one of the only Marvel movies to have a notion of its own artistic sensibility, deploying some mind-bogglingly fantastic crafts in the service of creating an alternate reality that still feels like the only Marvel movie to take place in our world. It's beautifully made, compelling, shockingly aggressive in its politics (for a Disney movie contractually obligated to make billions of dollars), and it's just a blast--a consummate Marvel package by which all of the next Marvel movies will need to measure themselves.

10. Burning (dir. Lee Chang-dong)
An exercise in slowly boiling the audience alive: we know we're hurting, but we don't know why until its too late to do anything but step quietly out of our skin. Anchored by a trio of spectacular performances (one of which is a debut, no less!), Burning assembles a calculated mosaic of yawns, glances, morning jogs, and some weepy topless dancing thrown in for good measure, creating a tempered beast crawling toward some inevitable world.

9. Cold War (dir. Pawel Pawlikowski)
An east/west narrative that deftly unsettles of the notion of objective historical narratives--both west as freedom and east as imprisonment, and west as decadency, east as revolution, all seen and rebuked. Beautiful performances, cinematography, and music, all in service of showing both real and imagined easts and wests as nothing but a series of ugly compromises.
(note: I shamelessly stole this from my letterboxd review. Go follow me on letterboxd and be subjected to my movie ramblings all the time!)

8. Hereditary (dir. Ari Aster)
What's to be said about this devil's haberdashery of wackiness and evil, in which tongues click, heads fly, people scamper across the ceiling, and Toni Colette gives the best horror performance in decades? Gleefully hideous study of family gone awry--all the pain and secrets and ugliness we try to hide at the dinner table, everything that looks and smells like broken candles and bastard sage and the things you yell to whatever pagan god you assume can lift you out of yourself.

7. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (dir. Marielle Heller)
What a sneaking, perfect little time bomb this is--a tetchy and note-perfect construction whose vast emotional weight only becomes evident once its far too late to put your guard up. Such a beautiful story of broken self-worth in a world of rain--Can You Ever is hilarious and painful and (a rarity!) a story driven by queer friendship that's unafraid to show the bile on its tentacles.

6. Roma (dir. Alfonso Cuaron)
I freely admit that I need to watch this again (about 40 minutes into the film, I got hit with the worst food poisoning I've had in years, and spent the rest of the film nauseously peeking through my fingers), and as such struggled to find the right position for it here--how do I reconcile its towering reputation, its technical acumen, and my own (mostly) positive thoughts with the vaguely negative (and admittedly vomit-drenched) haze that surround my own memories? No idea (other than to watch it again, but who has time?), so for now I'll say that Cuaron's technique is staggering, the moments he catches and choreographs are both precise and expansive, achingly specific but somehow universal, and his commitment to telling this unexpected and unsung story--to position a woman overlooked in her life as the halcyon reference point in the grandiose maelstrom around her--is deeply felt. You wouldn't be wrong to claim that the beauty and scope keeps the audience an arm's length away from the characters (note the insistence on few closeups--or none at all for anyone other than the main character), but I suppose that's the nature of memory itself--drifting further and further away, except for the few key moments that can still cut like glass.

(That broke my two sentence rule, but I had to explain the circumstances. Besides, I've never gotten this far before! Quick, congratulate me before I ruin it!)

5. Eighth Grade (dir. Bo Burnham)
Scarily relateable, unforgivingly detailed look at adolescence, and at cultivating a sense of being under the microscope of constant public scrutiny on social media--takes on being young and unsure what to do about it that are this warm and concise are few and far between. And it's worth noting that this is a movie: how many school movies are this aggressively shot and styled? Burnham directs like his young heroine is going to war--and she is.

4. Minding the Gap (dir. Bing Liu)
Absolutely the surprise of the year--I expected nothing much from a movie that advertised itself as a documentary about skateboarding kids, but what I got was a writhing and palimpsestic examination of violence communal ugliness that re-writes itself on the fly, morphing from a 'kids in their free time' doc to a wounded attempt to expose all the little hurts that perpetuate the myth of the American dream. A profoundly moving documentary, a consistently surprising experimentation with the narrative arcs we've come to expect, and a legitimately uplifting look at the ways in which people can lift each other up. If you haven't seen this, go watch it right now (it's streaming on Hulu).

3. First Reformed (dir. Paul Schrader)
I can't help but feel like ugliness unifies more than a few of the movies on the list: all the ways to cinematically approach the fact that the world we have isn't necessarily the one any of us would have wished for or imagined. The gap between what Ethan Hawke's falling pastor can imagine and what the world can create becomes wider and wider, with no consolation other than a pepto-whiskey cocktail and some good old-fashioned levitation and self-flagellating. If it sounds miserable, it's only because it is--this is an Apocalypse, and it is unstoppable. "Somebody's got to do something!" he yells as worlds both large (the seemingly unstoppable course toward destruction we've charted with climate change) and microscopic (his own body) fall apart. But...why? First Reformed is quick to show us its despair, but is uninterested in providing any answers: partly because there might not be any, and partly because we don't deserve them.

2. The Favourite (dir. Yorgos Lanthimos)
Every single element of this wild-eyed period piece is essential work. Part (very) black comedy, part shockingly moving study of love, illness, and devotion in all its forms, and part documentary made by alien baby with no interest in realistic human behavior (duck races! Naked fruit throwing! The things Nicholas Hoult does to his cane!), and every part as vital and organic as the next. I'll save my accolades for the performances until that post (as well as its filmmaking craft), but there are entire years that don't have performances as good as any given four in this movie. Any movie that be this funny, strange, and beautiful all at once deserves every prize and accolade it gets.

1. Suspiria (dir. Luca Guadagnino)
This may be a controversial choice--and I acknowledge that a two and a half hour long, profoundly brutal, deliberately paced movie about experimental dance, the Holocaust, and witches isn't everyone's cup of tea--but I'm confident that all the people who hate this movie are wrong, and that critical opinion about this movie will turn in the right direction as time passes and people forget what they wanted Suspiria to be and watch what it is. And what is it, exactly? It's not the horror film people wanted. First, Suspiria is an examination of history--it immerses itself in the German Autumn of '77 more than any movie I've seen since Fassbinder, taking the unrest, the fury that spilled into the streets, and the  certainty that evil things lurk beneath every surface, and creating a film whose own specificity qualifies it to speak to other periods (some far too close for comfort) in which all the systems we put in place to stop horrors from being perpetuated are the ones that will eventually sink hooks into our bodies. But that's just the scaffolding for a story about guilt and shame, both culturally and historically (aka Germany's relationship with its own past), one that seems to allege that only when all memory has passed will we even begin to feel absolved of our own sins--and even then, the things that can't be undone will still be written on the walls. Oh, and if that wasn't enough, Suspiria is also a dance film--maybe one of the only movies I've ever seen to really get underneath a dancer's skin, to try and viscerally evoke the spiritual and physical punishments people inflict to write with their bodies--all while asking about how to ethically create art in a world shorn of beauty. It's also a quiet take on feminine power and different kinds of motherhood. And, yes, it's a horror movie, full of some of the most brutal and upsetting imagery I've ever seen. Long story short, Suspiria is a nesting doll of discourses, theses, and arguments, and it's also an exquisitely crafted, moving film that I felt crawl across my skin. And all in service of one question: why is everyone so ready to think the worst is over?



Look at me go! I didn't really horrifically destroy brevity until the end. I expect at least some kind of trophy from everyone who reads this (as if everyone abasing themselves to plod this far isn't a trophy enough).

If you've still got more in you (and if you do, you poor thing, know that it's ok to stop, why do you do this to yourself?), then let's jump into the best scenes of the year! I'll link to them on youtube when I can, but no promises.


10. You Get To Exhale-Love, Simon
Sure, maybe it's the Kidzbop version of Mr. Perlman's Call Me By Your Name speech from last year, but I just can't turn down a watery-eyed Jennifer Garner speaking some truths my teenage self would have killed to hear.
(As an aside, I probably need to love on this movie more than I have. It's faaaaaar from perfect, but hooo boy it would have been a fundamentally life-changing experience for a teenage me, and I'm still dazzled and in love with the fact that something like a mainstream big studio gay teen romcom gets to exist)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mDsxTt6SDE


9. The Popping Book-Paddington 2
Ugh, this scene is just so sweet and lovely and warm. It's like getting hugged by the concept of happiness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xd82DD4aO9w

8. Hooray for Pool Parties!-Eighth Grade
The pre-teen Hieronymus Bosch bacchanalia of all of our nightmares! Scenes like this show why Eighth Grade would be totally at home on the shelf next to the horror movies. Extra points for the perfectly bonkers and punishing score.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nSxQdQ7U-U


7. Twilight Dance-Burning
Such a strange and lovely moment--and from a woman in her first on-screen performance!!!-as Jong-Seo Jun recreates the 'Big Hunger' dance (aka the dance of existential questioning) as the sun sets.
(Note: this clip contains a topless woman, so I'll label it NSFW)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuY9oVXCH4E

6. Mahjong Game-Crazy Rich Asians
What a beautifully written scene acted between two luminous women at the heights of their powers. If Constance Wu doesn't become a superstar after this movie, I'm going to throw my computer out the window.
(Note: this scene contains significant spoilers for this movie)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wh_oOd5JGpU

5. Family Dinner-Hereditary
Is this the most unpleasant dinner in the history of cinema? Maybe, as all of the pain and resentment in one household comes crashing down over some limp broccoli. Remind me why Toni Colette hasn't won an Oscar yet?
(Some spoilers for Hereditary in this clip)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uWQVdNKUrk

4. Olga's Dance-Suspiria
Look, I just... This is probably top three most brutal and horrific movie deaths I've ever seen. Part of why I haven't re-watched Suspiria (for a third time) is that I'm just not sure I want to watch this again (not yet). Simply put--a woman loses control of her body and is contorted beyond all recognition. I was begging for her to die halfway through--and then it kept going. Which, I suppose, is part of the point: brutality never has enough. It goes and it goes and it perpetuates itself until there's nothing left to devour.

3. Wacky Party Times-The Favourite
Lots of parties and dancing on this list, but this one takes the cake. So weird (the anachronistic choreography is everything, and then some), and with such an undercurrent of sadness (poor Queen Anne's new stockings that never get the debut they want). Everything good about The Favourite can be found in this little dance-y microcosm. I've no idea why everyone with dialogue in this scene isn't guaranteed an Oscar come Sunday.
(Note: the quality of this clip is atrocious, which is a shame, as you can't see the details in the performances, which are quite important, but for what it's worth...)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euyDSzCCkOM

2. Ending Montage-BlacKkKlansman
Normally it's against my rule to include ending scenes here, but if you're alive in 2019, you probably don't need a spoiler warning before learning that racism wasn't solved forever in the 70s. Spike Lee pairs the ending of his narrative with the Charlottesville violence in a horrific and upsetting way, and the message is clear--continuity is continuity. There is no stepping away from or ignoring the violent and oppressive narratives of the past, because they never went away.
(tw: this clip contains footage of the Charlottesville conflicts, which include violence and a man ramming his car into a crowd and murdering a woman)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_QccgBBEHc&t=100s

1. Tell Me Something, Boy...-A Star is Born
Like I'm strong enough to not put this here? I'm not A Star is Born's biggest fan, but this song and this scene feels like it was carved into my bones the moment I was born. There is no pre-Shallow or post-Shallow. There is only During Shallow as Lady Gaga's Aaaa--eee--aaaa--aaa-aaaaahhh echoes into eternity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNxCz-Iyu0g


And finally...the worst movies of the year! I suppose i ought to relabel this, as one of the perks of watching movies for fun rather than as a job is that I don't have to see anything I don't want to, which means that I get to avoid all the *really* terrible movies. That said, I still willingly put myself in the line of fire for some grade-A disappointments. In fact, maybe we ought to call these the biggest let-downs, as every movie on this list was a highly anticipated/prestige pic. How many Oscar nominations do the following five movies have? More than my top five movies of the year! Because, as Nietzsche said, God is dead, we killed him. (...I find myself quoting Nietzsche too much this Oscar season. This is truly the darkest timeline.)

5. Beautiful Boy
Sure, addiction is a horrible and arduous process, but does watching a movie about it have to be this...repetitive? Unpleasant? Weirdly unbalanced in its power relations? Full of screaming Steve Carell (boy do I wish he would try his hand at comedy again)? Full of flashbacks within flashbacks? Points for Timothée Chalamet, who would be compelling to watch just reading the newspaper, and Maura Tierney as his step-mom--why can't we get a movie about these two? Why do we have to have this story mediated through the tired old white guy who feels personally victimized by his son's choices?

4. Bohemian Rhapsody
I know, I know, how is this not the very worst? Well, despite its absolutely regressive and upsetting politics that make me furious (and even more furious that most of the straight people who see this movie just don't care too much that the queer community is demonized and Freddie Mercury, one of the queer icons, is represented as a sad, self-hating queen who just wants a wife), and despite its hacksaw editing and its terrible performances, and just....everything about this movie that's awful, which is everything (wait, am I talking myself into putting this at #1?). Despite all that, Queen's music is kinetic and transportative enough that there's some vague fun to be had in hearing that music in surround sound.

3. Vice
It's like they say--I don't need my movies to try and humanize our war criminals until after they've been tried at The Hague. And yet here we have this ham-handed, everything-but-the-kitchen-sink Dick Cheney biopic that both wants us to laugh at this man while being afraid of him, to appreciate his humanity while casually suggesting that he's responsible for literally all of the world's political evils (which itself is a pretty presumptuous claim that demonstrates that even 'woke' liberals still inherently accept American exceptionalism as being objectively true). And the last shot--in which Cheney turns to the camera and tells us all that he did it because safety requires compromises--totally rewrites the entire film, asking us to question how necessary the Bush administration's policies were to protect our children. Fuuuuuuuuuuuck this movie.

2. Avengers: Infinity War
Oh hey, do you enjoy superhero movies? Do you like Marvel movies? Well MARVEL HOPES YOU AND YOUR WHOLE FAMILY DIE. This movie is so needlessly ugly, so full of torture and close-ups of weeping faces--it wants you to suffer for having the audacity to pay money to be entertained. What's more--where's the character development? The narrative arcs? Anything? What a small, small movie this is, one that assumes that the explosions will keep you from realizing there is nothing here. I want to like Marvel, and goodness knows I'm the first in line for every movie they release, but...Not like this.

1. The Wife
Maybe a controversial choice, given the utter trash that came before it, but no movie this year made me more embarrassed on behalf of the concept of filmmaking than The Wife--a sloppily made production of a breathtakingly pretentious and idiotic script (and I know a lot about pretension and idiocy). Some of the choices made here are among some of the most inexplicable and terrible I've ever seen in a movie. What's more, these choices totally undermine the movie's thesis. For a movie about a woman artist who has been consistently passed over in favor of her less talented husband, The Wife is sure eager to step away from Glenn Close at every opportunity to gawk at the utterly laughable performances given by the other men onscreen (seriously, Jonathan Pryce's shrieky scenery chewing had me laughing out loud). Don't get me wrong--Glenn Close is absolutely fantastic in this movie. Is that enough to salvage a movie with at least three of the worst performances of the year, one of the worst scripts, and a directorial sensibility that constantly undermines itself and Close's performance? Nope. Nope nope nope nope nope.


So there we have it! Every year I convince myself to be more brief next year, and every year I LIE TO MYSELF. Hooray! Thanks for sticking around to the end (if there are any of you left)!

I can't promise the next list (acting/directing/screenplays) tomorrow, as Wednesdays are my super long days, but I'll post on Thursday.

In the meantime, sound off! What did I do right? Wrong? Come fight with me!

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Oscar Nominations: When Life Gives You Lemons, You Just Have Lemons

Well...huh. I find myself in a somewhat similar position to last year. After having spent the whole predictions phase arguing that the nominations would be a sweeping verdict on the Academy's identity, the nominations showed a writhing and infinitely sided megolith--the kind of eldritch awards body horror that sprang, fully formed, from Louis B. Mayer and David O. Selznick's massive and probably creepy offices. This morning is no different: there's plenty of 'new' Academy striving to find a different voice, and there's plenty of 'old' Academy, dictated by septuagenarians who see five movies a year, and only under duress. And rather than being one or the other, the Academy keeps managing to be both simultaneously, and honestly it's kind of messing with my conception of reality. So let's take a closer look and find the seams where the Academy ruptures this dimension and pushes us all howling into a darker and more fantastic world than our own! There are some fantastic categories, some all-time worst categories, and everything in between.

Note: I'll put an asterisk next to the nominees I predicted, so you can judge me accordingly. Spoiler alert--I did not thrive.


Picture
BlacKkKlansman*
Black Panther*
Bohemian Rhapsody*
The Favourite*
Green Book*
Roma*
A Star is Born*
Vice*

Rather than focusing on the bad (Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Green Book would all historically, for-the-record-books terrible nominees on their own, and somehow we got all three of them!), let's look at the good: Roma and The Favourite are both masterpieces, BlacKkKlansman is Spike Lee's first ever Oscar success (which is ridiculous), Black Panther getting nominated is a big cultural moment, a massive moment of validation for comic fans, Marvel, and calls for representation (as well as for action movies in general--other than Mad Max, when is the last time a pure action/adventure movie got in? The Original Star Wars?), and A Star is Born is super too. Are five great nominees enough to offset three horrendous ones? Ask me again after we know who wins. Also, fun fact: according to Twitter, the average gross of these films is over $180 million, so all the people who lament that Oscars only honor movies they haven't seen clearly need to just see more movies. (Sure, Black Panther being in the top three highest grossing films of all time helps, but A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody are also over $200 million.)
Note: I won't call this category as 100% for me, since I predicted nine nominees instead of eight, and would have included If Beale Street Could Talk instead of Black Panther had I chosen nine.
Early Winner Prediction: Roma (though this is super up in the air now, which is really exciting.)

Director
Alfonso Cuaron-Roma*
Yorgos Lanthimos-The Favourite*
Spike Lee-BlacKkKlansman*
Adam McKay-Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski-Cold War

Adam McKay really is the turd in this particular punch bowl (seriously, who likes Vice this much? How did this happen?), but let's look at the positive: seeing Lee, Lanthimos, and Pawlikowski all get their first nominations at once is a wonderful thing (another seriously: how is this Spike Lee's first director nod?). Also worth noting that this is only the second time in Academy history that two foreign language films have been nominated in this category (the first being in Ingmar Bergman and Lina Wertmüller in 1976), which is groovy. Even groovier is that it's almost a guarantee that Cuaron takes this, which will make him the first director of a foreign language film ever to do so.
Early winner prediction: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Actress
Yalitza Aparicio-Roma
Glenn Close-The Wife*
Olivia Colman-The Favourite*
Lady Gaga-A Star is Born*
Melissa McCarthy-Can You Ever Forgive Me?*

A fairly lovely list, though I will be the first to admit that I don't understand any of the accolades that Lady Gaga's been getting (great singer, sure, but great performance? ehh). Looking forward to the Close/Colman/Gaga celebrity cage match that's about to ensue.
Early winner prediction: Glenn Close, The Wife

Actor
Christian Bale-Vice*
Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born*
Willem Dafoe-At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek-Bohemian Rhapsody*
Viggo Mortensen-Green Book*

Shocking no one, the men's categories are, as always, a bit duller and upsetting than the women's. As a Rami Malek superfan (I've literally got a print and a button with his face on it), it pains me to say it, but is his inclusion here the worst part of the whole morning? Definitely possible. Not enthused by Mortensen or Bale, and even less enthused that now I have to try and see At Eternity's Gate. At least B-Coops can wash away the pain of his best director snub with the sweet sweet balm of knowing that he deserves to win this in a walk.
Early winner prediction: Christian Bale, Vice (or, to paraphrase Nietzsche, God is dead, we killed him)

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams-Vice
Regina King-If Beale Street Could Talk*
Emma Stone-The Favourite*
Marina de Tavira-Roma
Rachel Weisz-The Favourite*

I said yesterday that this category was primed for chaos, and I wasn't wrong.The Marina de Tavira nomination is massively surprising, and shows just how strong Roma is going into the next phase (though, silly note, I'm the slightest bit she's nominated, only for the very stupid reason that the Favourite women have been together alphabetically the whole season, and this list is less aesthetically pleasing now). I knew not predicting Amy Adams was silliness, but I let my heart be my guide, which hear means I tried to throw Vice in the toilet where it belongs.
Early winner prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali-Green Book*
Adam Driver-BlacKkKlansman*
Sam Elliott-Green Book*
Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
Sam Rockwell-Vice*

Oof. This is a *lot* to have to look at once, and is maybe the worst category of the morning (give or take one more, which we'll address presently). Granted, I'm on record as being one of the lonely few who a) thinks Sam Elliott is kind of ridiculous in A Star is Born, and b) thinks Ali is giving the worst performance in Green Book, so this category was always going to be a little bit dicey for me. But then throw in Sam Rockwell's barely there Bush impersonation? Someone come over here and hit me with a car. At least we've got Grant's career-best work to carry us forward (and won't it be fun to watch him lose to one of the men we just talked about!).
Early winner prediction: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Original Screenplay
The Favourite*
First Reformed*
Green Book*
Roma*
Vice*

Thrilled to see First Reformed make it, gutted to see Eighth Grade miss, and prepared to straight-up fist-fight anyone who thinks that Green Book or Vice is better written than either of those.
Early winner prediction: The Favourite

Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman*
Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
If Beale Street Could Talk*
A Star is Born*

Hello Buster Scruggs! The Academy decided to love you today, though I'd be hard-pressed to figure out why. When is the last time an anthology-style film like this was nominated for writing? I don't know my Oscar history quite well enough for that (at least not off the top of my head), but I'd guess that it's been a good half-century. Meanwhile, I'm still elated for everything related to Can You Ever Forgive Me? What a beautiful and bracing movie that is, and what a shame that we're not talking about it more.
Early winner prediction: BlacKkKlansman

Production Design
Black Panther*
The Favourite*
First Man*
Mary Poppins Returns*
Roma

Pour out a single, sad drink for First Man, and then do like Damien Chazelle and throw a cymbal at someone. First Man becomes Chazelle's least-nominated film in his career (though, as his only other two movies are La La Land and Whiplash, he's set a pretty high bar for himself in that regard). Roma popping up here also speaks to its overall strength. Also, on a groovy note, Hannah Beachler (for Black Panther) because the first ever black designer to be nominated in this category. One  major flaw in the #oscarssowhite discussion is that it almost universally limited the discussion to the acting categories while involving the systematic hurdles and difficulties faced by people of color in the below-the-line categories. Good on the Black Panther train for smashing some of that.
Early winner prediction: Black Panther

Costume Design
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther*
The Favourite*
Mary Poppins Returns*
Mary Queen of Scots*

Hello again, Buster Scruggs! Who could say no to your fringe jackets and chaps? Generally, this category is super: the in-the-wheelhouse work (aka the royalty trappings of The Favourite and Mary Queen of Scots) is innovative and character-defining, and the fantastic-leaning movies (Mary Poppins and Black Panther) are each eye-popping sartorial successes in their own right.
Early winner prediction: The Favourite

Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War*
Christopher Robin*
First Man*
Ready Player One*
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Surprised but not surprised to see Black Panther miss here--sure, it's a huge movie, but would any of us argue that its special effects are its strongest element? Also surprised/not surprised to see Christopher Robin here (though now I've got to watch it, which is balls). And a surprised/not surprised hat trick for Solo, which I was predicting until the last possible moment and then threw away in a fit of whimsy.
Early winner prediction: First Man

Makeup and Hairstyling
Border
Mary Queen of Scots*
Vice*

Border's going to be a huge barrier for me trying to see all the nominees before the show, but from what I hear, I should be happy that it was included. Mostly I'm annoyed this nominee set means that Vice wins this in a walk, and even more so that Suspiria's painful and spectacular work was passed over here, because all the world is just idiots, idiots all the way down.
Early winner prediction: Vice

Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman*
Bohemian Rhapsody*
The Favourite
Green Book*
Vice*

Oh hey, remember earlier when I wanted to talk about the worst category of the morning? We might just be here. Granted, I'm more convinced by Bohemian Rhapsody's editing than most (I agree that it's messy, but this movie was literally made in the editing bay--if you didn't follow all the production controversies, the director basically abandoned the project and the editor had to just make a movie with the footage they had), but still, this is a garbage group. I'd love for this to mean that BlacKkKlansman's aggressive montaging gets an Oscar for it's troubles, but that's not the kind of world we have. Incidentally, this category, which is almost always associated with best picture, makes predicting the winner of the big prize particularly difficult. Seeming frontrunner Roma isn't nominated here, but other seeming frontrunners Green Book and A Star is Born aren't nominated for director, which is just as big a problem (if not bigger). Does this mean Klansman or The Favourite or even Vice (heaven save us) win, or do one of the others soldier through?
Early winner prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody

Cinematography
Cold War*
The Favourite*
Never Look Away
Roma*
A Star is Born*

Never Look Away, Germany's entry for best foreign language film this year, joins the top-tier ranks of nominations that made prognosticators everywhere rub their eyes and say 'I'm sorry, what just happened?' (though Alone Yet Not Alone's best original song nomination--later revealed to be cheating and then subsequently disqualified!--still takes the cake in that regard). Still, a spectacular lineup.
Early winner prediction: Roma

Original Score
BlacKkKlansman*
Black Panther*
If Beale Street Could Talk*
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

Sure, why not? BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, and Beale Street are all great, Isle of Dogs was unavoidable, I guess, and Mary Poppins has music.
Early winner prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk

Sound Mixing
Black Panther*
Bohemian Rhapsody*
First Man*
Roma
A Star is Born*

A fairly expected group--Roma's inclusion is one I saw coming, but dug my heels in against for no particular reason--if a somewhat uninspiring one.
Early winner prediction: A Star is Born

Sound Editing
Black Panther*
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man*
A Quiet Place
Roma

Much more shocking as far as sound categories go. BoRhap and Roma both getting in here shows the Academy's love, and at least A Quiet Place can take its solitary consolation nod here.
Early winner prediction: First Man

Original Song
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings"-The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
"All the Stars"-Black Panther*
"The Place Where Lost Things Go"-Mary Poppins Returns*
"I'll Fight"-RBG*
"Shallow"-A Star is Born*

A fairly defensible lineup from one of the most disaster-prone categories. Part of me wants to make more Buster Scruggs jokes, but I've also been singing that song in my head since I watched it, so I suppose it wins this round. All the Stars is great, the Mary Poppins song is fine enough, and the Academy would never pass up the chance to nominate Diane Warren's latest primal shriek at the moon/Oscar gods, so we'll take the RBG song and we'll like it. And, of course, Shallow had this win in the bag since the trailer premiered (which, incidentally, makes Lady Gaga the first woman ever nominated for Actress and Original Song in the same year). It feels as though I sang Shallow in the womb. Shallow exists in a place beyond time. In a quiet room, bathed in soft light, Lady Gaga howls the 'aaaaa-eee-aaaa--ya-ya' part of the song while Gritty (yes, that Gritty) watches quietly.
Early winner prediction: "Shallow"-A Star is Born

Animated Film
Incredibles 2*
Isle of Dogs*
Mirai*
Ralph Breaks the Internet*
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse*

Hooray for Spider-Man! Here's hoping that it's got as good a chance of winning as I think it does. Otherwise, I don't have much to say here--I haven't seen two of the other nominees, and the ones I have seen (Incredibles and Isle of Dogs) were both fine, if uninspiring.
Early winner prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Foreign Language Film
Capernaum-Lebanon*
Cold War-Poland*
Never Look Away-Germany
Roma-Mexico*
Shoplifters-Japan*

If Roma weren't here, one imagines that this would be one heck of a competition, as both Cold War and Never Look Away have significant Academy support, and Shoplifters is a huge critical hit, but Roma *is* here--and is tied with Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon for the all-time most nominations for a foreign language film--so this category can only go one way.
Early winner prediction: Roma

Documentary Feature
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap*
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG*

What a stellar list this is. I'll admit that I haven't seen a few of these (it's historically difficult to get me motivated to watch documentaries), but what I have seen and what I've heard suggests one of the best lineups in years. Plus, Minding the Gap's nomination is the only one this morning that made me punch my fist and yell and make my neighbors wonder how I spend my mornings. This is absolutely my favorite nomination of the day, and if you haven't seen the movie yet, go watch it (it's streaming on Hulu).


Note: of the main nominees (i.e. not animated, foreign language. or documentary, because most of those don't open near me), I haven't seen Cold War, At Eternity's Gate, The Wife, Border, Never Look Away, and RBG, and of those, I've got no way to access Border or Never Look Away, which means that, unless something changes in the next month, I might have to give up already on trying to see everything before Oscar night.

Predictions-wise, I certainly could have done worse. I only completely nailed Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and Animated Film, but I also only totally screwed up Sound Editing and Original Song.

For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated movies:

1. Roma-10
2. The Favourite-10
3. Vice-8
4. A Star is Born-8
5. Black Panther-7
6. BlacKkKlansman-6
7. Green Book-5
8. Bohemian Rhapsody-5
9. Mary Poppins Returns-4
10. First Man-4

And here's a list of notable movies that didn't get any nominations at all: Beautiful Boy, Leave No Trace, Burning, Hereditary, Widows, Destroyer, Ben is Back, Boy Erased, The Hate U Give, Crazy Rich Asians, Eighth Grade, The Death of Stalin, Aquaman, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom, Mission: Impossible--Fallout, Suspiria, among others

You win some, you lose some.

How do you react? Good nominations? Bad nominations? What made you fist pump at 7.30 in the morning? What made you throw your breakfast across the room? These aren't the Christmas presents we asked for, but we can do our best with them anyhow.




Monday, January 21, 2019

Oscar Predictions 2018: And They Were Never Lovely Again

                                                                                                                            source
In case poor Susie isn't being clear, this Oscar nomination eve sees me girding my proverbial loins--and you might want to as well. It's been a corker of a movie year all right; anarchy and controversy and slow creeping horror all congealing to provide a fitting coda for the swirling and implacable maelstrom of 2018. And if you thought you were done, if you thought that garbage year had demanded its pound(s) of flesh from you and had laid down to die in the annals of history, then think again, because Vice, Green Book, and Bohemian Rhapsody are all going to be best picture nominees, and no one seems to be able to stop it. Susie Bannion may have dealt with murderous witches, the Holocaust, and DDR fashion choices, but she's still got to face losing all her well-deserved nominations to some fake teeth and 2 Driving 2 Daisy. So get those loins girded!

Maybe it's because it's my 13th year of Oscar predictions and I'm feeling superstitious, or maybe it's because I'm writing this to Nicholas Brittell's messy, keening score for Vice (far and away the best part of an otherwise hideous movie), but tomorrow morning seems poised to ring in the triumphant return of the Academy of years past. As I mentioned in this space last year, the past half-decade of Academy in-house politics has been about trying to decide who the Academy wants to be--its diversity initiative (during which roughly 30% of the Academy's voting membership has been added, with a particular eye cast toward diverse voices and young/up-and-coming film professionals). Last year I wrote that 2017 seemed like a tipping point--a tense caesura that could see the Oscars embracing its own attempts to drag its members into the 21st century or falling back with a smile on its face. And on the face of it, the Oscars seemed to choose forward, with last year's slate (Lady Bird! Get Out! Call Me By Your Name! Phantom Thread!) hinting toward a future with an ever broader definition of constitutes an 'Oscar movie.'

And then this year happened.

Maybe I'm being too apocalyptic (considering we've yet to see the nominations), but if last year was a tipping point, this year is going to test the strength of that decision to its very core. So let's do some predictive triage!

(note: I've now totally committed to my new predictions format, in which I do it all in one breathless post. Long-time readers (who do exist--Привет москва!) may remember five-day extravaganzae of years past, but this method is just more streamlined) (...except for the part where it's still punishingly, unforgivably long).

(note note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood.)

Best Picture
Green Book
A Star is Born
Roma
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
Alternate: First Man

The trick here isn't what gets nominated, but how many. Since 2011, the Academy has used a preferential ballot to determine the number of nominees (minimum 5, maximum 10), and every year but two since then has given us nine nominees. And if we're having nine nominees, they will almost certainly come from these 10 films (barring a massive surprise like A Quiet Place, Leave No Trace or Mary Poppins Returns). But how many? I feel confident that the top 5 are unshakable, but any of the next five might miss for any of the others. I'd like to be optimistic and think that Vice or BoRhap might miraculously bow out (see above, re: long, dramatic monologuing), but I'd think that Beale Street and Black Panther on thinner ice. Beale Street has been ignored by too many precursors and carries Moonlight's reputation like an albatross around its neck. Meanwhile, I've no idea why most prognosticators feel like Black Panther is a lock--I'm keeping it in my predictions for now, but if it falls short tomorrow, remember how you read it here first that it requires a very different Academy indeed to put Black Panther up for the top prize--and can that same Academy also do Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody at the same time?

Director
Alfonso Cuaron-Roma
Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born
Spike Lee-BlacKkKlansman
Peter Farrelly-Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos-The Favourite
Alternate: Adam McKay-Vice

Good lord does my heart yearn for Lanthimos (maybe my favorite working director?) to get in here, and I'm (vaguely) confident that he will. The others seem solid enough (my heart wants to call for a Farrelly snub, but my brain thinks that Lee and Cooper are more vulnerable). Surprises may come from Damien Chazelle (First Man--a film whose Oscar chances are completely befuddling), or even Barry Jenkins/Beale Street or Ryan Coogler/Black Panther if either of those films' chances are less dire than I tend to think.

Actor
Christian Bale-Vice
Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born
Rami Malek-Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen-Green Book
Ethan Hawke-First Reformed
Alternate: John David Washington-BlacKkKlansman

Am I too bullish on my Ethan Hawke pick? Maybe, but I honestly don't see it going any other way. And all the other surprises (Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man, Ben Foster/Leave No Trace) seem too far-fetched to worry about.

Actress
Glenn Close-The Wife
Lady Gaga-A Star is Born
Olivia Colman-The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Toni Collette-Hereditary
Alternate: Yalitza Aparicio-Roma

The first category to really give me significant pause. The first four are set in stone, and the final slot is a complete tossup. I've done the very silly thing and voted with my heart with Collette, who is profoundly deserving but probably long shot at best. Aparicio is a safer bet, as is Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns or Viola Davis/Widows. Alternately, if you want to be even wackier,  I almost called an out-of-nowhere nom for Julia Roberts in Ben is Back, and wouldn't that be fun?

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali-Green Book
Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Elliott-A Star is Born
Adam Driver-BlacKkKlansman
Timothée Chalamet-Beautiful Boy
Alternate: Michael B. Jordan-Black Panther

I don't feel confident about *any* of these picks other than Ali and Grant, but everything else seems even less plausible. If I'm afraid of Black Panther missing best picture, can I really put it into any other major races? Do we really think that Sam Rockwell's ten-minute long Bush impersonation in Vice is really grabbing enough eyeballs? Do we really think that critically loved long shots like Steven Yeun in Burning or Allessandro Nivola in Disobedience have a shot? I suppose my answer to all of these questions is a big ol' no. Then again, if you asked me if I really thought Timmy C., Sam Elliott, and Driver would all be nominated, I'd also probably say no, so here we are.

Supporting Actress
Regina King-If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone-The Favourite
Rachel Weisz-The Favourite
Claire Foy-First Man
Emily Blunt-A Quiet Place
Alternate: Amy Adams-Vice

I'm probably doing a very silly thing by predicting an Amy Adams miss, but this is a category rife with silly things. King, the purported frontrunner, has missed a few important precursors and could easily miss. Stone and Weisz could cancel each other out, or move up to the Lead Actress race. And do people still love First Man and A Quiet Place at all? Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) and Elizabeth Debicki (Widows) could also sneak in (or Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased, for that matter). Basically, this category is absolute chaos, so I'ma get in the spirit and predict a little chaos.

Original Screenplay
The Favourite
Roma
Green Book
Vice
First Reformed
Alternate: Eighth Grade

It is my hope of hopes that either Green Book or Vice (or both!) sits this one out to make room for both First Reformed and Eighth Grade, but the Oscar gods are unjust, which means the best movies have to fight for the last slot, and the garbage leaks in without a fight. Look for A Quiet Place or Bohemian Rhapsody to sneak in here if either have more support than I'm expecting, and look to Cold War for a classy surprise.

Adapted Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
A Star is Born
Leave No Trace
Alternate: The Death of Stalin

I've seen a few pundits predicting Black Panther and/or Crazy Rich Asians making good here, but I'll believe it when I see it (again, I can't very well predict Black Panther to bag other major categories if I'm worried for its best picture chances). I'm not super confident on my Leave No Trace pick, but Debra Granik movies (of Winter's Bone fame) are good at sneaking in at the last second with more support than expected, so here we are.

Production Design
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Black Panther
First Man
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Alternate: Roma

I feel silly for leaving Roma off, but it's equally silly to bet against the Harry Potter series in this category. In the worst possible timeline, Welcome to Marwen, Green Book, and Bohemian Rhapsody will all muscle in here.

Costume Design
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate: Crazy Rich Asians

Too much of the crafts categories are going to be defined by how much the Academy loves Bohemian Rhapsody--look for it to strike first blood here. I'd also love to see Crazy Rich Asians land here, where it has its best (only?) shot, but I couldn't bring myself to predict it happen. Look to Fantastic Beasts, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, or Colette for curveballs.

Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Christopher Robin
Alternate: First Man

I'm sure I'm way off base calling for 4/5 slots to be filled by Disney (and at the expense of First Man) but that's the exciting thing about hegemonic corporate monopolies--they get the shiny gold trophies! Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other movies still in the running are Solo, Welcome to Marwen, Ant-Man and the Wasp, and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Vice
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
Alternate: Bohemian Rhapsody

Always a wild and wacky category to try and pin down, so I will throw lots of fat suits and false teeth at the board while weeping for jaw-dropping (or jaw-crushing) makeup effects in Suspiria. Note: like visual effects, this has been previously narrowed down to seven films. The other three still in contention are the aforementioned Suspiria, Border, and Stan and Ollie.

Film Editing
A Star is Born
Roma
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate: Green Book

Is it silliness to leave out best picture frontrunner Green Book out of this category (which is traditionally tied to winning best picture), or to leave out Adam McKay's signature kitchen sink anarchic garbage from Vice? Probably, but I'm nothing if not silly.

Cinematography
Roma
First Man
A Star is Born
Cold War
The Favourite
Alternate: If Beale Street Could Talk

Honestly, it would be shocking for anything other than these six to be nominated, though if Bohemian Rhapsody or Black Panther (or the tapioca stylings of Green Book, god forbid) feel like storming any barns tomorrow morning, here'd be the place to do it.

Original Score
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Vice
Alternate: Isle of Dogs

I imagine that the only reason I've predicted Vice here is because I'm still listening to the soundtrack and it sounds awesome and feels right. Still, I'd bet someone else's left nut that Isle of Dogs or Mary Poppins Returns takes that slot instead. And fingers crossed for a wacky surprise like Annihilation or The Death of Stalin!

Sound Mixing
A Star is Born
First Man
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
A Quiet Place
Alternate: Roma

Another day, another instance of me wondering why I didn't predict Roma here. Who knows? The Academy is fickle. Maybe they shower Roma with love, maybe we're all wrong and Solo and Mission Impossible triumph here instead. The world is an imperfect place.

Sound Editing
First Man
Black Panther
Solo
Incredibles 2
Ready Player One
Alternate: A Quiet Place

So here's the thing--I've been predicting these five for months and months, and I don't necessarily think they're right, but I'm too wedded to them now to stop. Send help! Alternately, rather than sending help, predict A Quiet Place or Roma or A Star is Born or Bohemian Rhapsody and then be real smug about your victory.

Original Song
"Shallow"-A Star is Born
"All the Stars"-Black Panther
"The Place Where Lost Things Go"-Mary Poppins Returns
"Girl in the Movies"-Dumplin'
"I'll Fight"-RBG
Alternate: "Trip a Little Light Fantastic"-Mary Poppins Returns

This is definitely the safe list, but I've no opinions passionate enough to make me be unsafe. Maybe "Revelation" (Boy Erased's funereal love dirge) or "We Won't Move"/The Hate U Give makes it? Shame that the lovely "Suspirum" from Suspiria won't. ...Shame, really, that I haven't been talking about Suspiria this whole time. What a world! No room for beautiful wickedness.

Animated Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Mirai
Alternate: Smallfoot

Always a tough category to predict, as it's heavily reliant on both little international movies that open nowhere near me and massive popcorn fare that I tend to not do in theaters. This list looks solid though.

Foreign Language Film
Roma-Mexico
Cold War-Poland
Shoplifters-Japan
Capernaum-Lebanon
Birds of Passage-Colombia
Alternate: Burning-South Korea

A bit silly of me to predict a second, out-of-nowhere for Colombia and director Ciro Guerra, particularly when friendly and safe(ish) Euro-centric titles like Germany's Never Look Away and Denmark's The Guilty are right there, but hey. It is, as they say, my party, and my party includes South American nightmare fuel.

Documentary Feature
Won't You Be My Neighbor?
Three Identical Strangers
RBG
Minding the Gap
The Distant Barking of Dogs
Alternate: Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Year in and year out, the hardest category for me to get excited about--but I' m soldiering through, because I'm a giver. Out on a bit of a limb here, predicting that the Academy embraces both the skateboarding-cum-domestic abuse doc Minding the Gap and wacky Ukrainian child war romp The Distant Barking of Dogs over likelier candidates like Hale County or docu-blockbuster Free Solo.


For those of you playing along, here are the movies I'm predicting for the most nominations:

A Star is Born-10
The Favourite-9
Black Panther-9
First Man-7
BlacKkKlansman-6
Roma-6

Incidentally, I know it's a little silly to devote so much space to Oscar predictions when I haven't sounded off on my own preferences yet--and those posts, each longer and more horrifying than the last, are definitely in the pipeline. I've still got quite a few titles that I'd love to work through in the next two-ish weeks. In the meantime, if I could guarantee one nomination tomorrow, it'd be Suspiria for anything (makeup and original song are the only categories in which it has a chance, but I'd love to see it pop up elsewhere too), and if I could take away one nomination....where to begin? Bohemian Rhapsody or Vice for best picture? Rami Malek for actor? Bohemian Rhapsody for pretty much any craft category other than film editing? Vice and Green Book in screenplay? There's a wealth of trash to be had, if my predictions are anywhere near correct. Picking just one nomination to prevent feels like swimming upstream against a mudslide.

Come tomorrow morning, all of these predictions will be moot, and you can bet I'll be back in this space tomorrow to cheer and/or lick my cinematic wounds. Until then--what are you hoping for? Dreading? Where did I go wrong? Or, better question, where did the Academy?