Oscar Predictions, Part 5: Summing it Up.

All right, last time before the big day. Nominations are revealed in roughly seventeen hours, which means that, in seventeen hours, all of this guesswork will be completely worthless. Still, it's fun, so we keep doing it. Anyway, I'm just going to post my final predictions, in order of likelihood, for each category, sans commentary. And I'm only allowing myself one alternate. Incidentally, I know it's silly of me to do all these Oscar prediction posts without actually weighing in on what deserves to be nominated, but, living in the Southwest, I just don't have access to all the films I need to see in time to put together a fair 'Best of 2010' list before Oscar nominations. That post will be coming soon-ish, however. Maybe mid-February. I will allow myself this however: If I could automatically guarantee one nomination, it would be TRON for best original score, and if I could automatically guarantee someone not getting a nomination, it would be Hailee Steinfeld missing for True Grit.

Note: I changed two predictions since I posted them. First, I the alternate for best original song is different, and the number one and number two spots in best documentary feature switched with each other.

Best Picture
The Social Network
The King's Speech
The Fighter
Toy Story 3
Black Swan
Inception
True Grit
The Kids Are All Right
Winter's Bone
127 Hours
Alternate: The Town

Best Director
David Fincher-The Social Network
Tom Hooper-The King's Speech
Darren Aronofksy-Black Swan
Christopher Nolan-Inception
David O. Russell-The Fighter
Alternate: Joel and Ethan Coen-True Grit

Best Actor
Colin Firth-The King's Speech
James Franco-127 Hours
Jesse Eisenberg-The Social Network
Jeff Bridges-True Grit
Robert Duvall-Get Low
Alternate: Javier Bardem-Biutiful

Best Actress
Natalie Portman-Black Swan
Annette Bening-The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence-Winter's Bone
Nicole Kidman-Rabbit Hole
Julianne Moore-The Kids Are All Right
Alternate: Lesley Manville-Another Year

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale-The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush-The King's Speech
Jeremy Renner-The Town
Mark Ruffalo-The Kids Are All Right
Andrew Garfield-The Social Network
Alternate: John Hawkes-Winter's Bone

Best Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo-The Fighter
Amy Adams-The Fighter
Helena Bonham-Carter-The King's Speech
Jacki Weaver-Animal Kingdom
Mila Kunis-Black Swan
Alternate: Hailee Steinfeld-True Grit

Original Screenplay
The King's Speech
The Kids Are All Right
Inception
Black Swan
The Fighter
Alternate: Another Year

Adapted Screenplay
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
The Ghost Writer
Alternate: 127 Hours

Art Direction
The King's Speech
Inception
True Grit
Alice in Wonderland
Shutter Island
Alternate: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1

Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
The King's Speech
Burlesque
The Tempest
True Grit
Alternate: Black Swan

Visual Effects
Inception
TRON Legacy
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Iron Man 2
Alternate: Hereafter

Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
The Wolfman
Barney's Version
Alternate: Jonah Hex

Film Editing
The Social Network
Inception
The Fighter
Black Swan
The King's Speech
Alternate: 127 Hours

Cinematography
True Grit
Inception
Black Swan
Shutter Island
The King's Speech
Alternate: The Social Network

Original Score
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
How to Train Your Dragon
The Ghost Writer
Alternate: 127 Hours

Sound Mixing
Inception
True Grit
Black Swan
TRON Legacy
How to Train Your Dragon
Alternate: Salt

Sound Effects Editing
Inception
TRON Legacy
How to Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3
127 Hours
Alternate: Salt

Original Song
"I See the Light"-Tangled
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"-Burlesque
"Shine"-Waiting For Superman
"We Belong Together"-Toy Story 3
"If I Rise"-127 Hours
Alternate: "Chanson Illusioniste"-The Illusionist

Animated Film
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Alternate: The Illusionist

Foreign Language Film
In a Better World-Denmark
Incendies-Canada
Life, Above All-South Africa
Biutiful-Mexico
Dogtooth-Greece
Alternate: Simple Simon-Sweden

Documentary Feature
Waiting For Superman
Inside Job
Gasland
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Restrepo
Alternate: Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer


There we have it. I'll be back tomorrow morning with the official nominee list, as well as my reactions.

Oscar Predictions, part 4: technical categories

Alright, slightly different format today. In the major categories, it's not too hard to whittle things down to a manageable number of possibilities. In the tech categories, everything is pretty much a crapshoot. So, instead of breaking down every possibility, I'm just going to give my predictions and alternates, and offer up a couple brief thoughts below them. We've got ten categories to get through, so I'll try to be brief.
Note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood.

Art Direction
The King's Speech
Inception
True Grit
Alice in Wonderland
Shutter Island
Alternate: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Black Swan

The King's Speech and Inception are safe. True Grit probably is too. I'd like to predict Harry Potter, but I just can't make room for it. TRON or Robin Hood might show up unexpectedly. We'll see.

Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
The King's Speech
The Tempest
Burlesque
True Grit
Alternate: Secretariat, Black Swan

I'm only confident about the first two; any of the others could slip away. I wouldn't be surprised if Made in Dagenham pulled a nomination here, or Robin Hood. For a real shocker, watch for The Fighter or Inception; both contemporary, atypical possibilities that have nonetheless garnered their share of attention in this category.

Visual Effects
Inception
TRON Legacy
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Iron Man 2
Alternate: Hereafter, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World

This category has already been narrowed down by the Academy to a seven-film shortlist, which is to say that the only movies that can be nominated here are the ones I just listed. I feel pretty confident about this lineup, but Iron Man could drop out.

Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
The Wolfman
Barney's Version
Alternate: Jonah Hex, The Way Back, The Fighter, True Grit
Another seven-film finalist list here. The top two slots are probably locked, and any of the other five films could take the last spot. I tried both Jonah Hex and The Way Back in my predictions before settling for Barney's Version, if only because I assume the Academy is going to spite me and nominate a movie I've no chance of seeing before the show, thus killing my dreams of seeing all the nominated films. Curses!

Film Editing
The Social Network
Inception
The Fighter
Black Swan
The King's Speech
Alternate: 127 Hours, Shutter Island

This is one of the only tech categories I feel fairly confident about. Maybe True Grit or The Town could slip in, but I doubt it. I think we're looking at our five nominees up there.

Cinematography
True Grit
Inception
Black Swan
Shutter Island
The King's Speech
Alternate: The Social Network, 127 Hours

This one is tough. The top three slots are locked in. Shutter Island, The King's Speech, and The Social Network are neck-and-neck for the last open spots. 127 Hours could take advantage of how close the others are and slip in, as could The Way Back.

Original Score
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
How to Train Your Dragon
The Ghost Writer
Alternate: 127 Hours, Alice in Wonderland

This category is maddeningly difficult. Inception and The King's Speech are probably in. I should be more confident about The Social Network and How to Train Your Dragon, which are two of the best scores of the year, but Dragon hasn't been nearly as strong in the precursors as I'd like it to be, and I'm struggling to imagine Trent Reznor become Academy-Award Nominee Trent Reznor, even if he just won a Golden Globe for The Social Network. We'll see. That last spot is just a wild guess. I would honestly sell my first-born to see TRON take that spot, but that's, at best, incredibly far-fetched. 127 Hours could make it, but they'll probably honor A.R. Rahman in original song instead, and Alice in Wonderland could feasible get in, even though the very thought of it gives me seizures. Also possible: Never Let Me Go, Harry Potter, Get Low, The Tempest, The Town, etc., etc.

Sound Mixing
Inception
True Grit
Black Swan
TRON Legacy
How to Train Your Dragon
Alternate: The Social Network, Salt

This is a total crapshoot. The only nominee I'm sure of is Inception. Every other prediction could easily miss, and the alternates could easily crack the top five. Other movies with just as good a shot at a nomination: 127 Hours, Unstoppable, Shutter Island, The Town, Toy Story 3. I can easily imagine getting most of these predictions wrong come Tuesday morning.

Sound Effects Editing
Inception
TRON Legacy
How to Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3
127 Hours
Alternate: Salt, True Grit

Funnily enough, I feel much more confident about this category. I'm probably wrong, but I feel good about 4 out of 5 of these nominees. The alternates could knock 127 Hours out, as could Black Swan, Unstoppable, or Iron Man 2.

Original Song
"I See the Light"-Tangled
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"-Burlesque
"Shine"-Waiting For Superman
"We Belong Together"-Toy Story 3
"If I Rise"-127 Hours
Alternate: "Bound to You"-Burlesque, "Chanson Illusionist"-The Illusionist

We honestly might as well just throw darts. This branch is nigh-impossible to figure out. There might not even be five nominees, and even if there are, there's no guarantee that the generally agreed-upon frontrunners will be nominated, and there's a strong possibility that one of the nominees will be from a movie I've never heard of (remember last year, when "Loin de Paname" from Paris 36 was nominated? I still don't know what that movie is). So, I'll just play it safe, prediction-wise, and go for the five most obvious choices, and expect to be wrong. Watch out for "Coming Home" from Country Strong. Sure, the movie was awful, but that hasn't stopped this branch before.


Well, that just about wraps it up. I'll compile everything tomorrow into one post sans commentary, just to set things in stone, and then I'll be back sometime on Tuesday to discuss the actual nominees. Anybody else have predictions they'd like to share? Hunches? Hopes? Don't be shy.

Oscar Predictions, part 3: Acting

Here we are again. Four categories today; the acting categories.

Best Actor
Only one slot is up for grabs here. Jeff Bridges, Jesse Eisenberg, Colin Firth, and James Franco are all locked. Any of them missing would be bizarre, though, if I had to bet one one missing, it would be Bridges. Don't count on it, though. The last spot is a little tricky, but I've a feeling the Old Hollywood Guard will pull their own through. In other words, Robert Duvall's nothing-special work on Get Low will probably get nominated because, let's face it, he's Robert Duvall. The man's pretty much a Hollywood legend. Plus, he just turned 80, and people might want to celebrate his becoming an octogenarian in style. I'd love to see Ryan Gosling show up here for Blue Valentine here, but it's probably not in the cards. Same goes for Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter (His performance is too bland) and Leonardo Dicaprio in Shutter Island (too many people hate the movie/the fact that this is the third movie in a row in which Leo has played a mentally unstable man grieving a dead wife. Show some range, man). One possible spoiler: Javier Bardem in Biutiful. Even though the movie's gotten mixed reviews, most everyone agrees that Bardem's performance is fantastic. I'd like to predict an upset here, but I just can't believe that Duvall won't pull through.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Colin Firth-The King's Speech
James Franco-127 Hours
Jesse Eisenberg-The Social Network
Jeff Bridges-True Grit
Robert Duvall-Get Low
Alternate: Javier Bardem-Biutiful, Ryan Gosling-Blue Valentine

Best Actress
I hate this category. It's a monster to predict this year. First things first: Annette Bening, Natalie Portman, and Jennifer Lawrence are all in, for The Kids Are All Right, Black Swan, and Winter's Bone, respectively. Past that, things get a little confusing. Nicole Kidman will probably become a default nominee for her prickly work in Rabbit Hole, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her left out. And then, the last spot...Hell if I know. There are at least five women with a strong shot at it, with two more waiting in the wings. Here they are:
Lesley Manville-Another Year: Earlier in the year, she was considered a threat to win. Something terrible and unexplained happened to Another Year, though, and it all but vanished from the circuit. That being said, if it shows up in one category, it would probably be this one. Another problem, though: category confusion. People can't decide whether Manville is lead or supporting, and, as such, she could split her votes and not get nominated in either category.
Julianne Moore-The Kids Are All Right: this nomination would come out of nowhere, but not be unexpected. Costar Bening has black-holed all the acting praise for this movie, leaving poor Julianne out in the cold. Still, both performances are fantastic, and it's sort of hard to imagine people putting Bening on their ballots without her better half Moore.
Hailee Steinfeld-True Grit: People love this performance, though it's a mystery to me just why that is. Steinfeld has (mostly) been considered supporting throughout the precursor circuit, but, then again, so was Keisha Castle-Hughes in 2003, and she ended up in the lead category. I'm hoping Steinfeld's category confusion results in her missing entirely. Fingers crossed!
Hilary Swank-Conviction: I really, really hate that I have to consider this performance as a valid option for an Oscar. Seriously? Still, people love this chick, and she did get a Screen Actors Guild nomination. Another Oscar mystery. I just can't believe this would happen. It would hurt too much.
Michelle Williams-Blue Valentine: I'd love to see this happen, but they've ignored Williams before, which is a shame, as she's easily one of the best working actresses of her generation. Sigh. It's just too hard to look past Hilary Swank's dazzling Boston accent, isn't it? -___-
The two long shots, both from foreign films:
Noomi Rapace-The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo: People love this movie and this performance, but it's probably too little to make it in.
Tilda Swinton-I Am Love: This movie's even smaller, but Tilda's got a legion of rabid fans who will do anything to secure her a spot. Not sure there are enough of them, though.
...Honestly, any of these women could show up on Tuesday in the fifth spot, or even the fourth spot, in place of Kidman. Expect the unexpected!
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Natalie Portman-Black Swan
Annette Bening-The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence-Winter's Bone
Nicole Kidman-Rabbit Hole
Julianne Moore-The Kids Are All Right
Alternate: Lesley Manville-Another Year, Hilary Swank-Conviction
(note: right until I typed that last line, I fully intended to go with Manville. Sometimes I surprise even myself. I'm not promising that I won't change my predictions in this category on Monday, though.)

Best Supporting Actor
This category is strange this year, in that I'm not too comfortable with a couple of the men I'm predicting, but there just aren't any other really valid options to take their place. Let's start with the obvious: Christian Bale is in for his work on The Fighter. Ditto Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech. Jeremy Renner is probably safe for his role in The Town. That leaves my last two slots. I'd like to give them to Mark Ruffalo and Andrew Garfield, but niether of them feel like 'Oscar' performances, and both have stumbled some in the precursors. Still, who would replace them? John Hawkes in Winter's Bone? Possible, but the film is so little. It's hard to imagine it getting more than a couple nominations. Sam Rockwell in Conviction? I thought people hated that movie, but if Hilary Swank's a possibility, than he certainly is too. Matt Damon in True Grit? He hasn't gotten any attentions whatsoever on the precursor circuit. And then there are the Social Network guys: Justin Timberlake and Armie Hammer. But Garfield is struggling to get in, and he has the showy performance. If he's struggling, there's no way the smaller, less noticeable roles will make it. So I'll just stick with the five most obvious choices, even if they don't feel quite right.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Christian Bale-The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush-The King's Speech
Jeremy Renner-The Town
Mark Ruffalo-The Kids Are All Right
Andrew Garfield-The Social Network
Alternate: John Hawkes-Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell-Conviction

Best Supporting Actress
This one's even tougher than Best Actress. There are two sure things: Melissa Leo and Amy Adams, both from The Fighter. Past that, six women have pretty much equal shots, and at least four more women could surprise. I have no idea where this category will go. The six most likely:
Helena Bonham-Carter-The King's Speech: This performance is fairly bland, but it's in what will likely be the most-nominated film. She'll probably be swept in. Still, she might miss in favor of showier work.
Barbara Hershey and Mila Kunis-Black Swan: Both women have a strong shot. Kunis has shown up more frequently on the awards circuit, but Hershey has the showier role. Maybe both of them will miss? Black Swan is very much a one-woman show.
Lesley Manville-Another Year: Yup. Her again. She's more likely to show up as a lead, but don't count her out here.
Hailee Steinfeld-True Grit: Most people are predicting Steinfeld will show up here (some even predict she'll win), but I'm hoping that enough people consider her a lead that the category confusion will keep her from getting nominated for anything. This could be one of my biggest hopes for nomination morning. Please, please, please let Hailee Steinfeld miss. There is NOTHING SPECIAL about this performance.
Jacki Weaver-Animal Kingdom: I'm conflicted here. If voters see this movie, they'll almost undoubtedly include one of the best villains of the year on their ballots. This is a great performance. That being said, this is a little Australian movie that came out during the summer and left theaters without a sound. This performance absolutely deserves to get in, but deserving usually doesn't have much to do with the nomination process.
And now, four women with less-but-still-possible odds:
Marion Cotillard-Inception: This performances is one of my favorite aspects of Inception, and it's sad that she hasn't taken off this season. Still, people love the movie, and I wouldn't be shocked to see her included.
Rebecca Hall-The Town: I don't think this will happen, but you never know. Call it a tiny hunch.
Miranda Richardson-Made in Dagenham: Here I thought this movie was dead, and then the British Academy resurrects it. That being said, I can't see this nomination happening.
Diane Wiest-Rabbit Hole: Same thing here. Rabbit Hole just hasn't gotten enough momentum. Hell, it's struggling to get its lead actress in. I can't imagine in getting any more love than that.
Once again: any of these twelve women could make it in. I've really no clue what will happen.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Melissa Leo-The Fighter
Amy Adams-The Fighter
Helena Bonham-Carter-The King's Speech
Jacki Weaver-Animal Kingdom
Mila Kunis-Black Swan
Alternate: Hailee Steinfeld-True Grit, Lesley Manville-Another Year


Well, that post was longer than I expected. Still, there was an awful lot to cover. The acting races are tough this year.
Here's a schedule of the next couple days:
Tomorrow: all my tech category predictions
Monday: my final predictions: no commentary, just solidifying things.
Tuesday: Oscar nominations, complete with my inevitably indignant reaction.

Oscar Predictions, part 2: Director and Screenplays

Back again. Today we'll tackle the other non-acting major awards: Best Director, Original Screenplay, and Adapted Screenplay

Best Director
This category is somewhat problematic this year. To begin with: David Fincher will almost undoubtedly win for The Social Network. He's got this in the bag. So, obviously, he's golden for a nomination. Past him, however, I'm unwilling to commit to anyone as a sure thing. I feel six directors have all got a pretty solid shot at the other four slots:
-Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan: his movie is both well-loved and well-respected, and it's a surefire best picture nominee. Plus, he's considered well overdue for a nomination after making four fantastic movies. Still, they've resisted nominating him before for respected films like Requiem For a Dream and The Wrestler. Black Swan might be a little too hip and violent for Academy voters.
-Danny Boyle for 127 Hours: 127 Hours is nothing if not a director's film, and Boyle comes through in spades. Plus, he's a recent winner, and the Academy might still be radiating with that post-win afterglow. Still, his film hasn't done nearly as well on the precursor circuit as I thought it would, and that'll hurt his chances.
-Joel and Ethan Coen for True Grit: To be honest, I'm of the opinion that True Grit is definitely a lesser Coen film. Still, it has amazing box-office, considering the genre, and a ton of people seem to love it. True Grit is also the sort-of 'manly' choice for Academy voters looking to overcompensate. That being said, there are just too many other big players this year to consider the Coens a lock.
-Tom Hooper for The King's Speech: Why am I not considering Hooper a lock? After all, his film has a pretty strong chance of winning best picture, and a movie without a director nom hasn't won best picture since 1989 (God, I hate Driving Miss Daisy). The King's Speech, however, has always been considered an acting/writing showcase, and not without good reason. Simply put, there are showier directors in the competition, and Hooper's still a newbie (King's Speech is only his second film). Still, his movie is right at the top of the best picture list...
-Christopher Nolan for Inception-If Chris Nolan doesn't get in this year, I'm reasonably sure the Internet will think very seriously about getting off its collective ass and doing something. Nolan is considered massively due, thanks to his snub for The Dark Knight, and succeeded in creating one of the more impressive and original films this year, all within the confines of the major studio system. Still, Inception is 100% an action film, which is to say that it's the kind of film that rarely scores here.
-David O. Russell for The Fighter-Let's face it. Oscars are essentially a popularity contest. And word on the street is that pretty much everyone hates David O. Russell. Most everyone loves The Fighter, however, as well as the artistic touch Russell brought to it (I wasn't overly impressed by the direction, but hey, I liked Tron, so I've forsaken my credibility this year). It's hard to decide whether Russell's terrible rep will overcome the respect for his movie, or vice versa.
Apart from these six, I can't really see anyone else getting in. Maybe, if the Academy feels like proving that Kathryn Bigelow's win last year wasn't a fluke, Debra Granik or Lisa Cholodenko could get in for Winter's Bone or The Kids Are All Right, respectively. And I suppose we should never rule out Another Year and Mike Leigh, who has snagged more than one director nomination from the jaws of defeat.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
David Fincher-The Social Network
Tom Hooper-The King's Speech
Darren Aronofsky-Black Swan
Christopher Nolan-Inception
David O. Russell-The Fighter
Alternate: Joel and Ethan Coen-True Grit, Danny Boyle-127 Hours

Best Original Screenplay
Here's another tough category to read. The King's Speech and The Kids Are All Right are locked and loaded. Beyond that, nothing is safe. Mike Leigh is always, always successful in the writing category, so watch out for Another Year. That being said, this film has received almost no precursor attention. Black Swan seems like a common-sense pick, but it's not much of a writer's film; it's about the style, not the dialogue. Blue Valentine, if seen enough, could sneak in here. I'm not sure I'd bet on it, though. The Fighter is a best picture front-runner, but I'm skeptical about its screenplay chances. And Inception could score for its fantastic concept, but its rather clunky dialogue could slow it down. Outside of these movies? I'd love to see Animal Kingdom, the Australian crime thriller, make it in, and I suppose Please Give, recently nominated by the Writers Guild, has a sliver of a hope.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
The King's Speech
The Kids Are All Right
Inception
Black Swan
The Fighter
Alternate: Another Year, Blue Valentine

Best Adapted Screenplay
This is an easier category to take a stab at. I'd say four movies are pretty much locked: The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, and Winter's Bone. But what for the last spot? 127 Hours hasn't been loved like I hoped it would; besides, it's not much for snappy dialogue. Still, as a potential best picture nominee, it could crack the top 5. Though The Ghost Writer was released at the beginning of the year, the awards circuit has remembered it, and this category seems like a great place to throw Roman Polanski and underage bone (sorry for the sex joke...I couldn't resist). I suppose The Town also stands a chance here, but, for that to happen, the Academy would need to love Ben Affleck and his little crime movie a lot more than I'm willing to bet they do.
Not that any of this matters, because The Social Network is going to win, regardless of who's nominated.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
The Ghost Writer
Alternate: 127 Hours, The Town

That's it for today. I'll be back tomorrow to discuss the acting categories!

Oscar Predictions, part 1: Best Picture

Hey all. It's been awhile. I figure I can't resist doing Oscar predictions every year, and I might as well put them here, as opposed to on Facebook. So I'll just dive in: this will kick off my five-day prediction blitz. Today, I'll do picture. Tomorrow I'll do director and screenplay, Saturday will be acting categories, Sunday will be the tech awards, and I'll do a final predictions list on Monday to put everything in one place. So here we go! Bear in mind that Oscar season is a year-round prognosticating event, and jumping into the season this late will be disorienting, at best. Apologies if I don't explain things as well as I ought to.

Best Picture
The precursor award circuit, critical acclaim, box-office totals, and conventional wisdom all suggest that this race is narrowed down to exactly 11 titles. They are, in alphabetical order:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone
Of these 11, I would say that The Social Network, The King's Speech, The Fighter, Toy Story 3, Black Swan, and Inception are completely safe. Any of these missing the nomination would be a huge surprise. True Grit and, to a slightly lesser extent, The Kids Are All Right are also on fairly solid ground. That leaves three films fighting for two slots. Which two will get in? 127 Hours is well-respected, and has performed fairly well with various guild and critic citations. Many Academy members, though, have allegedly refused to watch it because of it's graphic nature (the plot involves a long, intimate look at how one removes an arm with a blunt knife). The Town was a large box-office success, and could slip in if voters feel like rewarding the mainstream studio choice. The antithesis of mainstream is Winter's Bone, which is a tiny indie drama about meth-cooking in Missouri. Normally, I'd say it's too small a film to make it into the 10, but, for whatever reason, people love this movie, and it's looking fairly strong. Of this group, I'd say that Winter's Bone is far and away the least deserving of a nomination, but I recognize that I'm in a very small minority here.
What about other movies outside this 11? I don't really see it happening, but stranger things have occurred on nominations morning. Blue Valentine, the art-house relationship disaster movie, could conceivably sneak in. Another Year, Mike Leigh's latest attempt at middle-class ennui, was looking like a frontrunner out of Cannes, but, for whatever reason, it's completely fallen by the wayside. Other titles with a (very small) chance include Shutter Island, The Ghost Writer, and Animal Kingdom. Any of these making it would be completely gobsmacking.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Social Network
The King's Speech
The Fighter
Toy Story 3
Black Swan
Inception
True Grit
The Kids Are All Right
Winter's Bone
127 Hours
Alternates: The Town, Blue Valentine

Now, to get a few other categories out of the way that most people don't care about...

Best Animated Film
I'd like to claim that this race is down to five movies, but last year's out-of-the-blue nomination for The Secret of Kells makes me doubt myself. Still, last year had five nominees, while this year will only have three (due to Academy rules limiting nominees based on the number of animated films released this year), so a giant surprise like last year's is unlikely. Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon will both almost definitely get in, and deservedly so. That leaves three horses for one slot. I would have originally thought that Despicable Me wouldn't have been a threat, but, lo and behold, it keeps showing up at the precursor awards. Plus, it made bank. Don't count it out. Sylvain Chomet has found success in the animated race before with his 2003 feature The Triplets of Belleville, and is now working from a script by the late Jacques Tati, which grants him huge amounts of nostalgia points. His entry, The Illusionist is a definite threat. Still, it's a very small film, and might not have been seen. Last but not least is Tangled, Disney's attempt at a return to the glory years. Tangled won critical respect and a big ol' pile of money, which is a nice ancillary benefit. And what about wierd left-field choices? I'm just not sure. Idiots and Angels? My Dog Tulip? The Dreams of Jinsha? It just sounds like I'm making titles up. I really don't know how to predict this one. Right now, I'm going to veer populist, but I can't guarantee that I won't have changed my mind come final predictions on Monday.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Alternate: The Illusionist, Despicable Me

Best Foreign Language Film
This category is insanely tough to predict, even though the Academy already narrowed the field down to a list of nine finalists. They are:
Biutiful-Mexico
Confessions-Japan
Dogtooth-Greece
Even the Rain-Spain
In a Better World-Denmark
Incendies-Canada
Life, Above All-South Africa
Outside the Law-Algeria
Simple Simon-Sweden
I must admit that I haven't seen any of these, and, as such, my predictions are essentially stolen from other,better-movied men. That being said, Susanne Bier is a regular player here, and her film, In a Better World, just won the Golden Globe in this category. She's probably in. Similarly, Incendies and Life, Above All are well-respected and loved efforts, and will probably show. But what next? Biutiful has gotten bitterly divide reviews, but is the only title of the nine that can claim any sort of stateside notoriety, which is a huge deal in this category. Outside the Law is a sort-of-sequel to Days of Glory, which was nominated here in 2005. Maybe voters will love this creative team again? Even the Rain is allegedly a well-made production, and Confessions is apparently to bizarre to resonate with the infamously boring nominating committee. Tragically, Simple Simon is right up their alley: sappy, sentimental, and altogether awful. I should go with that one, but I'm going out on a limb for Dogtooth; this Greek movie about incest and animal slaughter is not exactly the nominating committee's cup of tea, but it shocked the world by making it onto the shortlist, and is easily the most critically revered of the bunch. I think it made it this far--it'll make the final step (note: this time next week, I'll have seen Dogtooth, and will know how psychotic it actually is). I fully expect to mess these predictions up on nominations day, but for what it's worth...
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
In a Better World-Denmark
Incendies-Canada
Life, Above All-South Africa
Biutiful-Mexico
Dogtooth-Greece
Alternate: Simple Simon-Sweden, Outside the Law-Algeria

Best Documentary Feature
I'll be honest: I really don't know much of anything about this race, and, quite frankly, I don't care too much for it. Allegedly, this was a banner year for documentaries, but I wouldn't know. It was, however, a banner year for my documentary viewing, in that I saw two: Exit Through the Gift Shop and Restrepo. I'll be rooting for both of them, and will probably predict them both, just for funsies. Feel free to ignore this prediction list, as I'm pretty much just pulling things out of my butt here.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Inside Job
Waiting For Superman
Gasland
Restrepo
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Alternate: Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer, The Tillman Story

There we have it. First round done. Come back tomorrow for a look at best director and the writing categories.

In case anyone stumbles by...

So, yes, the blog is pretty much dead. It got to the point where there were only two or three people reading it, and they were only doing so out of pity, so I threw in the towel. Honestly, it was kind of hard for me to not feel like a bit of a douchebag whenever I posted an 'at the blog' status update. If you really want me to keep writing, let me know, and I'll give it a shot. I suspect, however, that this post will go mostly unnoticed, and, as such, might be the last thing I put on here. It was fun while it lasted!

Best of the Decade: Volume Four

Here we are, back again, a little later than anticipated; my fault, sorry, I really do suck at this whole prompt delivery of content thing. So as to quickly alleviate the terrific suspense you all must surely be feeling, we'll jump straight into it. Here we are, the ten best films of the new millennium:


10. City of God (2003)
-directed by Fernando Meirelles
City of God is all about energy. From the opening shots of children chasing a chicken through crowded city streets, to the final shot, the same children walking down an alley, City of God traps the viewer in a whirlwind of color and motion. This is easily one of the most vibrant films of the decade, whose visual style and look would go on to be mimicked by other movies (see Slumdog Millionaire, for one). No other director, however, can quite find the lightning rod on which Fernando Meirelles has so memorably placed his hand. The film never stays still: the camera paces, circles, zooms, and dances through city streets, effortlessly highlighting the beautiful cinematography of Cesar Charlone. The camera-work works to serve one hell of a story: a tale with the sweep of The Godfather, the gritty crime realities of GoodFellas, and the desperate search for redemption of Pulp Fiction. The story, taken from the autobiography of Paulo Lins, is chock-full of shocking moments of brutal violence, made all the more horrifying for their basis in fact. An enormous ensemble of characters work their way through the film, all rising and falling to whatever heights their destiny requires, yet the film never feels overstuffed, thick, or confusing. Indeed, if anything, City of God is light on its feet. It moves fast, and it doesn't linger, but City of God will knock you off your feet.

9. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001)
-directed by Peter Jackson
I suppose that, by putting just one of the Lord of the Rings movies on here, I'm allowing it to stand for the whole trilogy. As a trilogy, The Lord of the Rings is unarguably one of the most staggering cinematic achievements of all time. The logistics of the gargantuan 15-month shoot are mind-boggling. The sets designed, the costumes created, the technology invented, all in service of the singular vision of Peter Jackson, who is one of the last living directors whose films can earn the 'epic' moniker and deserve it. I choose the first film because, simply, it's the best. Contrary to the opinion of most, I think the trilogy starts at its best and gets progressively worst. The Two Towers is very, very solid, with only a few minor quibbles, but The Return of the King contains some baffling directorial decisions, some groan-inducing moments, but also, admittedly, the most stirring, huge, and powerful moments of the whole trilogy. So why do I pick the first film? For starters, it has yet to reach the towering heights that the story will reach: where Return of the King is all loud music, giant close-ups, and huge action sequences, Fellowship of the Ring has time for poetry. Easily the best-looking of the three films, the first is a lyrical poem of a road movie, allowing time for interludes of beauty and majesty. The other films have no time for dalliance, but Fellowship takes the time to admire the world in which it takes place. It's also the most well-made: Jackson's sense of pacing would never quite be as controlled, nor the story so focused, nor the actors so appealing. The Lord of the Rings is, arguably, The most impressive cinematic achievement of our time, and The Fellowship of the Ring is the best movie within the trilogy. That alone earns it a place on this list.

8. Billy Elliot (2000)
-directed by Steven Daldry
Aaaaand now for a complete change of pace. Where Lord of the Rings is unbelievably large, Billy Elliot is small, quiet, and inobstrusive. Billy Elliot, the story of a twelve year old boy from a conservative North-English coal-mining family who discovers his talent for dance, is Steven Daldry's directorial debut; Daldry would go on to make The Hours and The Reader. Fun trivia fact: Daldry is almost certainly the only director, or movie artisan of any field, to be Oscar-nominated for every film he's ever done. That's right, shoppers: Daldry is three-for-three in the nominations field. Billy Elliot is easily his best film: Daldry negotiates difficult material (striking workers, repressed feelings, forgotten dreams, perceptions of homosexuality, etc.) to make a beautifully stirring, immensely powerful film. I really can't choose which scene moves me the most: Billy dancing in defiance of his father, the letter from his mother, Billy's father breaking the strike to raise money, selling his mother's jewelry, or perhaps, the scene in which Billy says goodbye to his brother from the bus: neither can hear what the other is saying, and it's just heartbreaking. Suffice to say I'm an emotional wreck for most of this movie. All of this could have felt like a made-for-TV Movie of the Week, but Steven Daldry imbues it with a sense of quiet verisimilitude. He also succeeds in shepherding some of the best performances of the decade: Julie Walters, as Billy's burnt-out coach, Gary Lewis, as his skeptical but loving father, and, of course, Jamie Bell as Billy, who, at fourteen, showed more talent than most of us can even dream of. Man, I'm such a wuss. This movie makes me all weepy. I gotta stop writing about it before I lose more man-points.

7. Kill Bill (2004)
-directed by Quentin Tarantino
Let me start out by saying that Kill Bill is not two movies. It was written as one movie, filmed as one movie, and treated as one movie: the studio just decided, and not without good reason, that they weren't going to release a four-and-a-half hour long bloody kung fu revenge epic, so they split it up for commercial purposes. Still; one movie. Singular. That's not my opinion, that's fact. That aside, I firmly believe that Kill Bill is one of the great modern masterpieces that has been completely misunderstood in its time. Tarantino delivers, as usual, a sharply observed, darkly comic, emotionally resonant film full of blood and gore; a film with a furiously pumping heart. In Kill Bill, we witness what must be the best performances seen in a Tarantino film, as delivered by Uma Thurman and David Carradine. Bill and The Bride are two of the most fascinating characters in recent memory, and the performance that create them are beautifully realized. The fact that neither of these fine actors received Oscar nominations for their work, much less the wins they deserved, is a sin. Seriously: every time the Academy gave Million Dollar Baby an Oscar over Kill Bill, God killed a panda. Awards, I suppose, are irrelevant, but it would have been nice to see the real cinematic achievement of the year be awarded. (...Million Dollar Baby? Best Picture? Really? Man, I hate this game.) Kill Bill is masterful in all its aspects: the script switches effortlessly between moments of bizarre comedy and honest drama: Bill's monologue about Clark Kent and Superman is a highlight, as is the pitch-perfect ending, which cannot be improved upon in any way. The film looks wonderful, both in its design aspects and its cinematography, and is edited skillfully. On the surface, Kill Bill is just violent, and, admittedly, it is. But it's more than that: it's an explanation of violence. It's a meditation on cruel, violent people, and why they act the way they do. It dramatizes how no one truly believes they're a bad person, no matter what they do. It gives no one character the moral high ground, and paints no one as being 100% evil (...with, maybe, the exception of Daryl Hannah's character. Elle Driver is just plain nasty.) Kill Bill is an incredibly entertaining film, but also an important one: it shows us what happens in a world without moral accountability.

6. Brokeback Mountain (2005)
-directed by Ang Lee
God, what a beautiful movie. It pains me to put this at #6, but I can't, in good conscience, demote any of the movies above it, so here we are. Brokeback Mountain has been dismissed as 'that gay cowboy movie.' Admittedly, it's a movie about gay cowboys, but to compartmentalize it is to deny its universal power. As Roger Ebert said in his review, 'the more it understands its individual characters, the more it applies to anyone. I can imagine someone weeping at this film, identifying with it, because he always wanted to stay in the Marines, or be an artist, or a cabinet-maker.' Brokeback Mountain is about all of the things we deny ourselves because our world, our surroundings, say we can't have them. It's about the happiness we sacrifice for the appearance of normality. It's about the regrets we keep in our head for years, which we may never speak about, but will always feel. It's also, simply, a love story. Two young men meet and share one innocent summer together. Only later, when they find themselves trying to make their emotions gel with the real world, does it become a conflict of interest. It's also a study on the effects of repression on the people around the repressed: the beautiful character study of Ennis's wife Alma comes immediately to mind. It helps that the movie is staggering to look at: Rodrigo Prieto's cinematography is stunning. I feel like I can pause this film at any moment, print the frame on which I paused, and hang it as a piece of art. And...that scene. That damn scene. To avoid spoilers, I'll simply say that it involves a room, a shirt, and no words. You'll know it if you've seen the movie. That scene is possibly the only scene in all of cinema (that I know of) that can choke me up every time I watch it. This movie hurts, but in a worthwhile, bittersweet way.

5. Lost in Translation (2003)
-directed by Sophia Coppola
Speaking of bittersweet...Lost in Translation is one of the most spectacular movies I've ever seen, in that it accomplishes so much by doing so little. The characters don't say much; they don't do much. Most of the film consists of its two stars sitting in their hotel, or walking around the streets of Tokyo. The only time in the entire film in which a character chooses to say something dramatic and big and obvious, we don't get to hear it. This movie is an elegiac love-letter to all the things we can never have. Bill Murray turns in his best performance, as well as one of the seminal performances of the decade. He's so..understated, but somehow incredibly affecting. The whole movie, in fact, is incredibly understated. As I previously said in my entry on The Virgin Suicides, Sophia Coppola is a director less interested in words and actions than she is in moods and feelings. She attempts to convey, without words, loneliness, quiet desperation, contentment, and that most elusive of emotions: happiness. Coppola understands what it feels like to be completely in a moment: to look at something: a blossoming cherry tree, petals falling to the ancient stone walkways of a shrine's pavilion, and be completely, utterly happy with the world, if only for a moment. Not the giddy, showy happy: the kind of happy that settles under your stomach like a fire. Coppola understands how one moment can encapsulate everything you've ever needed to feel. Lost in Translation is absolutely full of this moments. Unlike most films, Lost in Translation understands what it is to be human.
(Fun game for people who've seen the movie: What do you think Bob says to Charlotte at the end? My favorite theory, which I think perfectly fits the movie, is this: "As soon as you can, call your husband and tell him you love him.")

4. Black Hawk Down (2001)
-directed by Ridley Scott
If any scene can rival the Brokeback Mountain scene in terms of its ability to move me to something nearing tears, the end of Black Hawk Down would be that scene. This movie is incredibly emotionally draining: We are allowed brief moments of peace at the beginning, but once the action starts, Black Hawk Down is two hours of demonstration of the costs of war. For most of the film, we, like the characters, don't get a moment that isn't drenched in blood, sweat, and the constant promise of realized mortality. There are moments of courage, of heroism so moving it's difficult to believe that it actually happened: there are also moments of anger, doubt, grief, and failure. One of the most powerful moments in the film comes at least two thirds in: a man is dying on a table, and a young medic labors to save his life. A fellow soldier assists in the improvised operation. Something goes wrong: the wounded soldier is screaming, and the medic looks up at his comrade for a moment, almost imperceptibly shaking his head. Every time I see this, I'm struck by how young they all are, how men my age are being thrown into situations that would scare the toughest and most world-weary adults. I, like the medic, see all the lost potential, the terse reality that a bullet creates when it enters a human being. At the end of the film, we encounter the same realities: there are moments of courage, of heroism, of success, but at the end of the day, there are seventeen boxes filled with wasted bodies, and countless more on the street. We all like to think that we'd be willing to die for the people we love: Black Hawk Down shows, accurately and graphically, exactly what that looks like. It shows the price that we ask young men to pay for abstract notions of patriotism and freedom. Not every cause is worthwhile, but every cause has a cost. Black Hawk Down doesn't judge what cause it worth dying for and what isn't: it simply shows who dies, and who doesn't.

3. Children of Men (2006)
-directed by Alfonso Cuaron
Here, possibly, is one of the greatest technical achievements of our time. Before I can talk about anything else, I have to talk about Children of Men's camera-work. Consider a battle-scene, near the end: a shot begins by following the main character; it follows him through an attempted murder, a desperate escape through a bus of wounded refugees, and into the middle of a firefight through a crowded building. The take lasts for at least five minutes, and every single element shown on screen is real, planned and orchestrated in perfect time. It's absolutely jaw-dropping. So is the design of the movie: never has an apocalyptic future looked so effortlessly real, so thoroughly lived-in. I could watch this movie every day and still find some new aspect of design in the background worth seeing. This movie is more detailed than a Da Vinci fresco. Superficially, the film is an action-thriller: We get characters, the characters have to run, they are chased, and eventually the plot is resolved. What makes this film special, however, is the documentary aesthetic that Children of Men achieves. I've never seen a movie that looks and feels so completely, thoroughly realistic. Children of Men doesn't stop for cliches, or Hollywood ideas of action: if someone dies, they die quickly, regardless of how important a character they might be. There are no great dramatic death scenes, filled with inspiring monologues. Someone is shot in the neck and bleeds out like a pig in a slaughterhouse. Another person is done in by a brick. Another is captured, never to be seen again. And the film, like life, just keeps moving. The world doesn't stop and take respectful notice of events. Aside from its technical achievements, which are incredibly impressive, the film is rife with great dramatic moments: take, for instance, Theo overhearing his friend explain Theo's past to someone else. Notice how the camera never leaves his face. A lesser film-maker wouldn't have had the courage to let the actor make the scene: Alfonso Cuaron, arguably the greatest working director, lets Clive Owen say all that needs to be said in his face. Other great moments include Miriam talking in the abandoned elementary school, or Jasper's final actions. This whole film is one damn string of great moments. Children of Men will be respected and studied for generations, long after crap like Twilight has melted away.

2. Almost Famous (2000)
-directed by Cameron Crowe
Finally, some levity. While the last eight films have been depressing in some way or another, Almost Famous makes me almost incalculably happy. It's like free-basing 150 CCs of joy directly into your veins. This whole movie leaves me with a big, dumb grin on my face. Much of this can be attributed to the script, which is easily one of my favorite scripts ever. It's witty, light on its feet, insightful, and wonderfully balanced. One can also blame the actors: this ensemble delivers a veritable deluge of wonderful performances: the standout is Kate Hudson as Penny Lane, the band-aid, but Patrick Fugit, Frances MacDormand, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Billy Crudup, Jason Lee, Fairuza Balk, Anna Paquin, Jay Baruchel, Zooey Deschanel, and more besides give some of the best performances of their careers. Seriously, has there been another film recently with such a bounty of great performances? Perhaps what endears this movie to me the most is how heartfelt it is: it truly loves its subject. As a fellow music-lover, I can't help but like anyone or anything that loves music so openly and innocently. Almost Famous is full of tiny moments that make the movie, set to one hell of a soundtrack: Penny Lane dancing alone in an abandoned venue to "The Wind," by Cat Stevens, Zooey Deschanel leaving home to Simon and Garfunkel's "America," the whole tour-bus singing "Tiny Dancer" as a way of showing forgiveness. This movie is funny, heartfelt, and moving. It's harder to write about happy films, as there are fewer heavy-weight words and phrases with which I can express my admiration, but trust me: Almost Famous is as deserving of all the big words it can get as any film on this list.


Now, #1. Drum-roll, please!



1. Y Tu Mama, Tambien (2002)
-directed by Alfonso Cuaron
This might be a controversial choice. Of all the movies this decade, I pick the low-budget sex-comedy-turned-road-movie? Damn straight I did. Y Tu Mama, Tambien is one of the most beautiful, intelligent, resonant movies ever made, and deserves to be treated as such. The movie is incredibly layered. On the surface, it's, like I said, a sex-comedy-turned-road-movie. Below that, it's a bittersweet coming of age tale. Below that, it's a treatise on the current state of Mexico. Below that, it's an examination of the human capacity for callousness as well as selflessness. Below that, it's about life and death. About the way people choose to live, and the way people choose to die. Y Tu Mama, Tambien works on every one of these levels, as well as others that I have yet to mention. Admittedly, this film is tough to appreciate the first time around: I don't want to spoil anything, but the film's plot unfolds in such a way that you need to see it more than once to fully appreciate the film's nuances. Things that seem irrelevant or out-of-place the first time become tragic and eloquent when you know the whole story. That's not to say, of course, that the film isn't good the first time. Far from it. Y Tu Mama, Tambien does what all the best books and movies do: they read as if you wrote them, if you had words beautiful enough to do it. As if they know how to express the primal feelings you don't have words for. They take the intangible, and turn it into something extraordinary. Y Tu Mama, Tambien is a singular, incredibly powerful cinematic experience. It can speak to anyone about anything: it understands the human condition, loves it, embraces it, and shapes itself into a beautiful mirror of it. Look into it, and you'll see more than yourself: you'll see yourself as you wish you could be, you'll see yourself as the kind of person you envision before you fall asleep at night. This movie puts a name to the things we all feel, but can never quite express.


Well, there we have it. Where did I go wrong? Where did I go right? How would you rank these movies? Don't be shy! I want to argue.