So I've discovered a fun pattern. When, in my first year of grad school, I sat down to write up my best of the year posts, I was confronted with the ugly reality that my movie enthusiasm had fallen by the wayside--call it a lack of time (which it certainly was), call it mental exhaustion in the free time that I did have (which it also certainly was), or maybe just call me lazy. At any rate, after that first year, I resolved to fix my free time movie problems: to recommit myself to movies. And (shockingly) it worked! The next year saw my end-of-year list returning to a healthy pre-grad school count. Which, of course, means that I assumed I'd solved the problem forever and never thought of it again--and when the next year rolled around, I found myself back to square one.
For the past half a decade (how have I been in grad school for half a decade and am now only maybe halfway done?), I've been careening through a cycle of 'oh no! Where did movies go?' to 'ALL the movies will be in my eyes THIS INSTANT' to 'Hooray! The world is fixed forever!' and back again--and this year just happens to be an 'I assumed I had no problem but now I'm here and I haven't seen much' year. So what do I do? Do I do the re-commitment dance anew and patch things up for another year? What can I do that'll make it stick? I wrote at some length last year about grad school tends to colonize every facet of your life, pushing the things you love out onto the street where you belong. And that hasn't changed in the interspersing 12 months, nor will it change in the next 4-5 years that I'm in school (or, spoiler alert, for the next 2-until I'm dead years after I graduate).
So here's my new little reconsecration speech--you can throw it back at me next year when I'm treading these same paths (or, if the pattern is to be believed, the year after). But for now: I am not recommitting to movies. I'm not promising to watch a movie every night, even if it kills me. I'm not going to scamper off to the theater after every class, just to make sure my numbers keep bumping up.
I am going to commit to learning how to use my damn time. There are only so many hours in the day, and no number of cannily deployed aphorisms or dizzy daydreams will add more, and this will be true for the rest of my life. So, I can be upset that I've got no time or energy for movies, or I can address the root of the problem and tackle the grumpy little puzzle box that is work/school/life management in academia. And we'll see how that goes! Watch this space.
And why, they ask, is he leading with this weepy monologue? Maybe he only saw Bohemian Rhapsody and that new Transformers movie (you know, the one with the bee) and it wasn't enough? Here's the part where I reveal that my sarcophagus reveries stem from the fact that I saw a dirty 66 movies from this calendar year. (66! they all scream, that's a neutron star of movies! That's the number of movies that killed all the Jedi!, making little Michael Bay-shaped crucifixes with their fingers as they flee.) Well, it is, as they say, my party, which means that I get to complain about whatever I want. Just as a comparison, though: 2013, my last pre-grad school year, had me clocking 92 movies at this same time.
And what about the movies themselves? While I won't pretend that this year is quite up to last year's standards, which saw me adding two movies to my top 30-40 all time (still love both of you 4ever, Lady Bird and Call Me By Your Name), as well as a veritable flotilla of high quality content to fill out the top 20. And while there are certainly riches to be had here--the top two are miles above everything else, both from this year and most others, and the top 10 itself is a writhing panoply of earthly delights. That said, this may be the first year since I began writing these (in 2007, because I am ancient and so are my fingers and opinions) that I can't scrape together a top 20 about which I am uncomplicatedly ebullient. Don't get me wrong--I'm still inflicting a top 20 (and honorable mentions!) on you, but it's not until movie #15-ish that I can really start getting 2 fast 2 enthusiastic without reservation.
If you're new here (which seems tenuous to me, but hey, maybe my loyal Eastern European fanbase are sharing me around?), here's how the format works. I'll rattle off my top 20, as mentioned above, trying to keep a weather eye cast toward brevity (more in interest of killing it horribly dead than in trying to abide by its rules). As always, I've got a self-imposed two sentence limit for each movie, but, uh, we'll see. After that, if you're still looking for ways to flagellate your sinful eyes and thoughts, I'll throw up a list of the best scenes of the year, as well as the worst movies. And then here's a departure: normally (i.e. every year other than last year) I'd put together a list of silly nominations and categories for your enjoyment, but I can tell im voraus that I'm not going to have that in me by the end of this creeping, oozing monstrosity I'm suturing together. So here's the deal: let's tentatively plan on me doing an extra categories/silly awards post after the other two I've planned. Won't that be nice?
In interest of transparency, here's a list of all the movies I've seen. Like I mentioned, I am woefully lacking in screen experiences this year, so if something you loved isn't mentioned, chances are I just took a nap or cried into my pillow instead of going to the movies that day. As always, I'm also woefully lacking in international films and documentaries. It doesn't help that the local artsy theater tends to dump many of the most acclaimed foreign-language films of the year into 2-3 day engagements during finals week. Every year it happens, and every year I brush a tear away as I wave to Border and Shoplifters and Burning as they drift by like highbrow manatees. I also haven't seen things like Capernaum, Leave No Trace, Zama, Disobedience, You Were Never Really Here, Madeline's Madeline, and other works that are available now online (or otherwise), but I just haven't made the time to catch them.
Alex Strangelove, Annihilation, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Aquaman, Avengers: Infinity War, Bad Times at the El Royale, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Beautiful Boy, Ben is Back, BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Boy Erased, Burning, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Cold War, Crazy Rich Asians, Deadpool 2, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, The Favorite, First Man, First Reformed, Free Solo, Game Night, Green Book, Halloween, Hereditary, I Am Not a Witch, If Beale Street Could Talk, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Love, Simon, Mary Poppins Returns, Mary Queen of Scots, Minding the Gap, Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol, Mortal Engines, Of Fathers and Sons, Overlord, Pacific Rim: Uprising, Paddington 2, A Quiet Place, Ready Player One, Red Sparrow, The Rider, The Ritual, Roma, Set It Up, A Simple Favor, Solo, Sorry to Bother You, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, A Star is Born, Support the Girls, Suspiria, Three Identical Strangers, Tully, Venom, Vice, We the Animals, Widows, The Wife, Wildlife, Won't You Be My Neighbor?
Alright, without further ado (as there's been much too much ado already), let's jump in!
Honorable mentions: though they didn't make the top 20, I'm grateful for the painterly and deliberate rythyms of If Beale Street Could Talk, the heart-in-throat reportage of Of Fathers and Sons, and the stellar performances trapped in a shaky script with Ben is Back.
20. A Star is Born (dir. Bradley Cooper)
Sure, the first half is stronger than the back half, and I'm admittedly not sold on two of the three key performances in the way that most are, but who am I to resist Lady Gaga's world-ending apocryphal Shallow yowls? Beautifully crafted, fiercely sung slice of all-caps STARDOM--the ups, the downs, and the lack of anything in between.
19. A Simple Favor (dir. Paul Feig)
The movie this year most likely to make unsuspecting audiences question their own concept of reality this year, A Simple Favor skips lightly from mystery thriller to buddy comedy to winky satire to, uh, incest chronicle--and it does it all in the space of one perfectly outfitted breath. Not all of Favor's moving parts move with the same precision, and the film doesn't fly as high as it could because of this, but I'm also not going to look a gift horse wearing a tearaway business suit in the mouth.
18. Paddington 2 (dir. Paul King)
Chicken Soup for the 2018 soul--a movie that vehemently asserts the values of warmth and kindness in a world increasingly unconvinced by secret sunshines. Gorgeous design, a perfectly hammy Hugh Grant flouncing around in a nun's habit, and the happiest prison this side of The Producers--what's not to like?
17. The Rider (dir. Chloe Zhao)
I'll admit that this one was a little further up the list, but, while trying to firm up my rankings, I watched this movie's last scene and it made me tear up right then and there, so I had to push The Rider up the list. While neither the beats it hits or the way it hits them are necessarily unexpected, this quiet narrative of a rodeo cowboy fighting his own post-injury body hits hard--and is all the more fascinating for being performed entirely by the Lakota cowboys and their families upon whom the movie is based.
16. Sorry to Bother You (dir. Boots Riley)
There's plenty of debate about this movie's third-act bonkers plot twist's virtues (or lack thereof), but Sorry to Bother You has enough creativity and see-sawing zaniness and ugliness to redeem itself (though I'll admit I don't hate the ending). And sidebar--I was shocked and tickled when Boots Riley (the lead vocalist of Street Sweeper Social Club, the rock/rap group of my early college years) turned up and started making movies as playful and furious as his music.
15. Widows (dir. Steve McQueen)
The best ensemble of the year (fight me) working in a trapped and brittle heist thriller in which the real thrillers were inside us all along (wherein 'real thrills' means 'the way Elizabeth Debicki side-eyes Cynthia Erivo). The villain(s)' angle is perhaps too pat (and too convoluted), but I could watch these women alternate between crying into their mirrors and running kick-ass crime schemes for the rest of my life and never get bored.
14. BlacKkKlansman (dir. Spike Lee)
It's tough to braid comedy and real world atrocity together in any kind of compelling way, but Klansman manages to both laugh at its subjects without obscuring how profoundly ugly their souls are--an incredibly difficult balancing act of mocking your racist cake without making it seem harmless. Extra points for knowing when to understate (Adam Drivers' arc, for instance) and when to overstate (that piercing Harry Belafonte monologue/Birth of a Nation montage, that beautiful final tracking shot, leading us, dead-eyed, into the screaming present).
13. Support the Girls (dir. Andrew Bujalski)
Takes a potentially toxic and ridiculous premise (day in the life at a Hooters-style restaurant) and elevates it with real humor and compassion. Support the Girls bleeds empathy--it secretly suspects everyone of being better than they think they are, even when (or especially when) they aren't acting like it.
12. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (dir. Bob Perschetti, Peter Ramsey)
Maybe the most surprising movie of the year--a no-holds-barred whirlwind firestorm, saturated with wit and humanity, and casually peacocking enough visual invention for ten lesser movies. Spider-Man realizes (perhaps for the first time in the filmic history of this character?) the wild and keening joys and pains of being a kid with a secret--how someone who doesn't fit in draws both their power and their trauma from the thing that wedges itself between them and the ones they love.
11. Black Panther (dir. Ryan Coogler)
I'm late enough to the party on discussing this one that it seems almost silly to add to the discourse, but for what it's worth: Black Panther is one of the only Marvel movies to have a notion of its own artistic sensibility, deploying some mind-bogglingly fantastic crafts in the service of creating an alternate reality that still feels like the only Marvel movie to take place in our world. It's beautifully made, compelling, shockingly aggressive in its politics (for a Disney movie contractually obligated to make billions of dollars), and it's just a blast--a consummate Marvel package by which all of the next Marvel movies will need to measure themselves.
10. Burning (dir. Lee Chang-dong)
An exercise in slowly boiling the audience alive: we know we're hurting, but we don't know why until its too late to do anything but step quietly out of our skin. Anchored by a trio of spectacular performances (one of which is a debut, no less!), Burning assembles a calculated mosaic of yawns, glances, morning jogs, and some weepy topless dancing thrown in for good measure, creating a tempered beast crawling toward some inevitable world.
9. Cold War (dir. Pawel Pawlikowski)
An east/west narrative that deftly unsettles of the notion of objective historical narratives--both west as freedom and east as imprisonment, and west as decadency, east as revolution, all seen and rebuked. Beautiful performances, cinematography, and music, all in service of showing both real and imagined easts and wests as nothing but a series of ugly compromises.
(note: I shamelessly stole this from my letterboxd review. Go follow me on letterboxd and be subjected to my movie ramblings all the time!)
8. Hereditary (dir. Ari Aster)
What's to be said about this devil's haberdashery of wackiness and evil, in which tongues click, heads fly, people scamper across the ceiling, and Toni Colette gives the best horror performance in decades? Gleefully hideous study of family gone awry--all the pain and secrets and ugliness we try to hide at the dinner table, everything that looks and smells like broken candles and bastard sage and the things you yell to whatever pagan god you assume can lift you out of yourself.
7. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (dir. Marielle Heller)
What a sneaking, perfect little time bomb this is--a tetchy and note-perfect construction whose vast emotional weight only becomes evident once its far too late to put your guard up. Such a beautiful story of broken self-worth in a world of rain--Can You Ever is hilarious and painful and (a rarity!) a story driven by queer friendship that's unafraid to show the bile on its tentacles.
6. Roma (dir. Alfonso Cuaron)
I freely admit that I need to watch this again (about 40 minutes into the film, I got hit with the worst food poisoning I've had in years, and spent the rest of the film nauseously peeking through my fingers), and as such struggled to find the right position for it here--how do I reconcile its towering reputation, its technical acumen, and my own (mostly) positive thoughts with the vaguely negative (and admittedly vomit-drenched) haze that surround my own memories? No idea (other than to watch it again, but who has time?), so for now I'll say that Cuaron's technique is staggering, the moments he catches and choreographs are both precise and expansive, achingly specific but somehow universal, and his commitment to telling this unexpected and unsung story--to position a woman overlooked in her life as the halcyon reference point in the grandiose maelstrom around her--is deeply felt. You wouldn't be wrong to claim that the beauty and scope keeps the audience an arm's length away from the characters (note the insistence on few closeups--or none at all for anyone other than the main character), but I suppose that's the nature of memory itself--drifting further and further away, except for the few key moments that can still cut like glass.
(That broke my two sentence rule, but I had to explain the circumstances. Besides, I've never gotten this far before! Quick, congratulate me before I ruin it!)
5. Eighth Grade (dir. Bo Burnham)
Scarily relateable, unforgivingly detailed look at adolescence, and at cultivating a sense of being under the microscope of constant public scrutiny on social media--takes on being young and unsure what to do about it that are this warm and concise are few and far between. And it's worth noting that this is a movie: how many school movies are this aggressively shot and styled? Burnham directs like his young heroine is going to war--and she is.
4. Minding the Gap (dir. Bing Liu)
Absolutely the surprise of the year--I expected nothing much from a movie that advertised itself as a documentary about skateboarding kids, but what I got was a writhing and palimpsestic examination of violence communal ugliness that re-writes itself on the fly, morphing from a 'kids in their free time' doc to a wounded attempt to expose all the little hurts that perpetuate the myth of the American dream. A profoundly moving documentary, a consistently surprising experimentation with the narrative arcs we've come to expect, and a legitimately uplifting look at the ways in which people can lift each other up. If you haven't seen this, go watch it right now (it's streaming on Hulu).
3. First Reformed (dir. Paul Schrader)
I can't help but feel like ugliness unifies more than a few of the movies on the list: all the ways to cinematically approach the fact that the world we have isn't necessarily the one any of us would have wished for or imagined. The gap between what Ethan Hawke's falling pastor can imagine and what the world can create becomes wider and wider, with no consolation other than a pepto-whiskey cocktail and some good old-fashioned levitation and self-flagellating. If it sounds miserable, it's only because it is--this is an Apocalypse, and it is unstoppable. "Somebody's got to do something!" he yells as worlds both large (the seemingly unstoppable course toward destruction we've charted with climate change) and microscopic (his own body) fall apart. But...why? First Reformed is quick to show us its despair, but is uninterested in providing any answers: partly because there might not be any, and partly because we don't deserve them.
2. The Favourite (dir. Yorgos Lanthimos)
Every single element of this wild-eyed period piece is essential work. Part (very) black comedy, part shockingly moving study of love, illness, and devotion in all its forms, and part documentary made by alien baby with no interest in realistic human behavior (duck races! Naked fruit throwing! The things Nicholas Hoult does to his cane!), and every part as vital and organic as the next. I'll save my accolades for the performances until that post (as well as its filmmaking craft), but there are entire years that don't have performances as good as any given four in this movie. Any movie that be this funny, strange, and beautiful all at once deserves every prize and accolade it gets.
1. Suspiria (dir. Luca Guadagnino)
This may be a controversial choice--and I acknowledge that a two and a half hour long, profoundly brutal, deliberately paced movie about experimental dance, the Holocaust, and witches isn't everyone's cup of tea--but I'm confident that all the people who hate this movie are wrong, and that critical opinion about this movie will turn in the right direction as time passes and people forget what they wanted Suspiria to be and watch what it is. And what is it, exactly? It's not the horror film people wanted. First, Suspiria is an examination of history--it immerses itself in the German Autumn of '77 more than any movie I've seen since Fassbinder, taking the unrest, the fury that spilled into the streets, and the certainty that evil things lurk beneath every surface, and creating a film whose own specificity qualifies it to speak to other periods (some far too close for comfort) in which all the systems we put in place to stop horrors from being perpetuated are the ones that will eventually sink hooks into our bodies. But that's just the scaffolding for a story about guilt and shame, both culturally and historically (aka Germany's relationship with its own past), one that seems to allege that only when all memory has passed will we even begin to feel absolved of our own sins--and even then, the things that can't be undone will still be written on the walls. Oh, and if that wasn't enough, Suspiria is also a dance film--maybe one of the only movies I've ever seen to really get underneath a dancer's skin, to try and viscerally evoke the spiritual and physical punishments people inflict to write with their bodies--all while asking about how to ethically create art in a world shorn of beauty. It's also a quiet take on feminine power and different kinds of motherhood. And, yes, it's a horror movie, full of some of the most brutal and upsetting imagery I've ever seen. Long story short, Suspiria is a nesting doll of discourses, theses, and arguments, and it's also an exquisitely crafted, moving film that I felt crawl across my skin. And all in service of one question: why is everyone so ready to think the worst is over?
Look at me go! I didn't really horrifically destroy brevity until the end. I expect at least some kind of trophy from everyone who reads this (as if everyone abasing themselves to plod this far isn't a trophy enough).
If you've still got more in you (and if you do, you poor thing, know that it's ok to stop, why do you do this to yourself?), then let's jump into the best scenes of the year! I'll link to them on youtube when I can, but no promises.
10. You Get To Exhale-Love, Simon
Sure, maybe it's the Kidzbop version of Mr. Perlman's Call Me By Your Name speech from last year, but I just can't turn down a watery-eyed Jennifer Garner speaking some truths my teenage self would have killed to hear.
(As an aside, I probably need to love on this movie more than I have. It's faaaaaar from perfect, but hooo boy it would have been a fundamentally life-changing experience for a teenage me, and I'm still dazzled and in love with the fact that something like a mainstream big studio gay teen romcom gets to exist)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mDsxTt6SDE
9. The Popping Book-Paddington 2
Ugh, this scene is just so sweet and lovely and warm. It's like getting hugged by the concept of happiness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xd82DD4aO9w
8. Hooray for Pool Parties!-Eighth Grade
The pre-teen Hieronymus Bosch bacchanalia of all of our nightmares! Scenes like this show why Eighth Grade would be totally at home on the shelf next to the horror movies. Extra points for the perfectly bonkers and punishing score.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nSxQdQ7U-U
7. Twilight Dance-Burning
Such a strange and lovely moment--and from a woman in her first on-screen performance!!!-as Jong-Seo Jun recreates the 'Big Hunger' dance (aka the dance of existential questioning) as the sun sets.
(Note: this clip contains a topless woman, so I'll label it NSFW)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuY9oVXCH4E
6. Mahjong Game-Crazy Rich Asians
What a beautifully written scene acted between two luminous women at the heights of their powers. If Constance Wu doesn't become a superstar after this movie, I'm going to throw my computer out the window.
(Note: this scene contains significant spoilers for this movie)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wh_oOd5JGpU
5. Family Dinner-Hereditary
Is this the most unpleasant dinner in the history of cinema? Maybe, as all of the pain and resentment in one household comes crashing down over some limp broccoli. Remind me why Toni Colette hasn't won an Oscar yet?
(Some spoilers for Hereditary in this clip)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uWQVdNKUrk
4. Olga's Dance-Suspiria
Look, I just... This is probably top three most brutal and horrific movie deaths I've ever seen. Part of why I haven't re-watched Suspiria (for a third time) is that I'm just not sure I want to watch this again (not yet). Simply put--a woman loses control of her body and is contorted beyond all recognition. I was begging for her to die halfway through--and then it kept going. Which, I suppose, is part of the point: brutality never has enough. It goes and it goes and it perpetuates itself until there's nothing left to devour.
3. Wacky Party Times-The Favourite
Lots of parties and dancing on this list, but this one takes the cake. So weird (the anachronistic choreography is everything, and then some), and with such an undercurrent of sadness (poor Queen Anne's new stockings that never get the debut they want). Everything good about The Favourite can be found in this little dance-y microcosm. I've no idea why everyone with dialogue in this scene isn't guaranteed an Oscar come Sunday.
(Note: the quality of this clip is atrocious, which is a shame, as you can't see the details in the performances, which are quite important, but for what it's worth...)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euyDSzCCkOM
2. Ending Montage-BlacKkKlansman
Normally it's against my rule to include ending scenes here, but if you're alive in 2019, you probably don't need a spoiler warning before learning that racism wasn't solved forever in the 70s. Spike Lee pairs the ending of his narrative with the Charlottesville violence in a horrific and upsetting way, and the message is clear--continuity is continuity. There is no stepping away from or ignoring the violent and oppressive narratives of the past, because they never went away.
(tw: this clip contains footage of the Charlottesville conflicts, which include violence and a man ramming his car into a crowd and murdering a woman)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_QccgBBEHc&t=100s
1. Tell Me Something, Boy...-A Star is Born
Like I'm strong enough to not put this here? I'm not A Star is Born's biggest fan, but this song and this scene feels like it was carved into my bones the moment I was born. There is no pre-Shallow or post-Shallow. There is only During Shallow as Lady Gaga's Aaaa--eee--aaaa--aaa-aaaaahhh echoes into eternity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNxCz-Iyu0g
And finally...the worst movies of the year! I suppose i ought to relabel this, as one of the perks of watching movies for fun rather than as a job is that I don't have to see anything I don't want to, which means that I get to avoid all the *really* terrible movies. That said, I still willingly put myself in the line of fire for some grade-A disappointments. In fact, maybe we ought to call these the biggest let-downs, as every movie on this list was a highly anticipated/prestige pic. How many Oscar nominations do the following five movies have? More than my top five movies of the year! Because, as Nietzsche said, God is dead, we killed him. (...I find myself quoting Nietzsche too much this Oscar season. This is truly the darkest timeline.)
5. Beautiful Boy
Sure, addiction is a horrible and arduous process, but does watching a movie about it have to be this...repetitive? Unpleasant? Weirdly unbalanced in its power relations? Full of screaming Steve Carell (boy do I wish he would try his hand at comedy again)? Full of flashbacks within flashbacks? Points for Timothée Chalamet, who would be compelling to watch just reading the newspaper, and Maura Tierney as his step-mom--why can't we get a movie about these two? Why do we have to have this story mediated through the tired old white guy who feels personally victimized by his son's choices?
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
I know, I know, how is this not the very worst? Well, despite its absolutely regressive and upsetting politics that make me furious (and even more furious that most of the straight people who see this movie just don't care too much that the queer community is demonized and Freddie Mercury, one of the queer icons, is represented as a sad, self-hating queen who just wants a wife), and despite its hacksaw editing and its terrible performances, and just....everything about this movie that's awful, which is everything (wait, am I talking myself into putting this at #1?). Despite all that, Queen's music is kinetic and transportative enough that there's some vague fun to be had in hearing that music in surround sound.
3. Vice
It's like they say--I don't need my movies to try and humanize our war criminals until after they've been tried at The Hague. And yet here we have this ham-handed, everything-but-the-kitchen-sink Dick Cheney biopic that both wants us to laugh at this man while being afraid of him, to appreciate his humanity while casually suggesting that he's responsible for literally all of the world's political evils (which itself is a pretty presumptuous claim that demonstrates that even 'woke' liberals still inherently accept American exceptionalism as being objectively true). And the last shot--in which Cheney turns to the camera and tells us all that he did it because safety requires compromises--totally rewrites the entire film, asking us to question how necessary the Bush administration's policies were to protect our children. Fuuuuuuuuuuuck this movie.
2. Avengers: Infinity War
Oh hey, do you enjoy superhero movies? Do you like Marvel movies? Well MARVEL HOPES YOU AND YOUR WHOLE FAMILY DIE. This movie is so needlessly ugly, so full of torture and close-ups of weeping faces--it wants you to suffer for having the audacity to pay money to be entertained. What's more--where's the character development? The narrative arcs? Anything? What a small, small movie this is, one that assumes that the explosions will keep you from realizing there is nothing here. I want to like Marvel, and goodness knows I'm the first in line for every movie they release, but...Not like this.
1. The Wife
Maybe a controversial choice, given the utter trash that came before it, but no movie this year made me more embarrassed on behalf of the concept of filmmaking than The Wife--a sloppily made production of a breathtakingly pretentious and idiotic script (and I know a lot about pretension and idiocy). Some of the choices made here are among some of the most inexplicable and terrible I've ever seen in a movie. What's more, these choices totally undermine the movie's thesis. For a movie about a woman artist who has been consistently passed over in favor of her less talented husband, The Wife is sure eager to step away from Glenn Close at every opportunity to gawk at the utterly laughable performances given by the other men onscreen (seriously, Jonathan Pryce's shrieky scenery chewing had me laughing out loud). Don't get me wrong--Glenn Close is absolutely fantastic in this movie. Is that enough to salvage a movie with at least three of the worst performances of the year, one of the worst scripts, and a directorial sensibility that constantly undermines itself and Close's performance? Nope. Nope nope nope nope nope.
So there we have it! Every year I convince myself to be more brief next year, and every year I LIE TO MYSELF. Hooray! Thanks for sticking around to the end (if there are any of you left)!
I can't promise the next list (acting/directing/screenplays) tomorrow, as Wednesdays are my super long days, but I'll post on Thursday.
In the meantime, sound off! What did I do right? Wrong? Come fight with me!
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
Oscar Nominations: When Life Gives You Lemons, You Just Have Lemons
Well...huh. I find myself in a somewhat similar position to last year. After having spent the whole predictions phase arguing that the nominations would be a sweeping verdict on the Academy's identity, the nominations showed a writhing and infinitely sided megolith--the kind of eldritch awards body horror that sprang, fully formed, from Louis B. Mayer and David O. Selznick's massive and probably creepy offices. This morning is no different: there's plenty of 'new' Academy striving to find a different voice, and there's plenty of 'old' Academy, dictated by septuagenarians who see five movies a year, and only under duress. And rather than being one or the other, the Academy keeps managing to be both simultaneously, and honestly it's kind of messing with my conception of reality. So let's take a closer look and find the seams where the Academy ruptures this dimension and pushes us all howling into a darker and more fantastic world than our own! There are some fantastic categories, some all-time worst categories, and everything in between.
Note: I'll put an asterisk next to the nominees I predicted, so you can judge me accordingly. Spoiler alert--I did not thrive.
Picture
BlacKkKlansman*
Black Panther*
Bohemian Rhapsody*
The Favourite*
Green Book*
Roma*
A Star is Born*
Vice*
Rather than focusing on the bad (Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Green Book would all historically, for-the-record-books terrible nominees on their own, and somehow we got all three of them!), let's look at the good: Roma and The Favourite are both masterpieces, BlacKkKlansman is Spike Lee's first ever Oscar success (which is ridiculous), Black Panther getting nominated is a big cultural moment, a massive moment of validation for comic fans, Marvel, and calls for representation (as well as for action movies in general--other than Mad Max, when is the last time a pure action/adventure movie got in? The Original Star Wars?), and A Star is Born is super too. Are five great nominees enough to offset three horrendous ones? Ask me again after we know who wins. Also, fun fact: according to Twitter, the average gross of these films is over $180 million, so all the people who lament that Oscars only honor movies they haven't seen clearly need to just see more movies. (Sure, Black Panther being in the top three highest grossing films of all time helps, but A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody are also over $200 million.)
Note: I won't call this category as 100% for me, since I predicted nine nominees instead of eight, and would have included If Beale Street Could Talk instead of Black Panther had I chosen nine.
Early Winner Prediction: Roma (though this is super up in the air now, which is really exciting.)
Director
Alfonso Cuaron-Roma*
Yorgos Lanthimos-The Favourite*
Spike Lee-BlacKkKlansman*
Adam McKay-Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski-Cold War
Adam McKay really is the turd in this particular punch bowl (seriously, who likes Vice this much? How did this happen?), but let's look at the positive: seeing Lee, Lanthimos, and Pawlikowski all get their first nominations at once is a wonderful thing (another seriously: how is this Spike Lee's first director nod?). Also worth noting that this is only the second time in Academy history that two foreign language films have been nominated in this category (the first being in Ingmar Bergman and Lina Wertmüller in 1976), which is groovy. Even groovier is that it's almost a guarantee that Cuaron takes this, which will make him the first director of a foreign language film ever to do so.
Early winner prediction: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Actress
Yalitza Aparicio-Roma
Glenn Close-The Wife*
Olivia Colman-The Favourite*
Lady Gaga-A Star is Born*
Melissa McCarthy-Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
A fairly lovely list, though I will be the first to admit that I don't understand any of the accolades that Lady Gaga's been getting (great singer, sure, but great performance? ehh). Looking forward to the Close/Colman/Gaga celebrity cage match that's about to ensue.
Early winner prediction: Glenn Close, The Wife
Actor
Christian Bale-Vice*
Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born*
Willem Dafoe-At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek-Bohemian Rhapsody*
Viggo Mortensen-Green Book*
Shocking no one, the men's categories are, as always, a bit duller and upsetting than the women's. As a Rami Malek superfan (I've literally got a print and a button with his face on it), it pains me to say it, but is his inclusion here the worst part of the whole morning? Definitely possible. Not enthused by Mortensen or Bale, and even less enthused that now I have to try and see At Eternity's Gate. At least B-Coops can wash away the pain of his best director snub with the sweet sweet balm of knowing that he deserves to win this in a walk.
Early winner prediction: Christian Bale, Vice (or, to paraphrase Nietzsche, God is dead, we killed him)
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams-Vice
Regina King-If Beale Street Could Talk*
Emma Stone-The Favourite*
Marina de Tavira-Roma
Rachel Weisz-The Favourite*
I said yesterday that this category was primed for chaos, and I wasn't wrong.The Marina de Tavira nomination is massively surprising, and shows just how strong Roma is going into the next phase (though, silly note, I'm the slightest bit she's nominated, only for the very stupid reason that the Favourite women have been together alphabetically the whole season, and this list is less aesthetically pleasing now). I knew not predicting Amy Adams was silliness, but I let my heart be my guide, which hear means I tried to throw Vice in the toilet where it belongs.
Early winner prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk
Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali-Green Book*
Adam Driver-BlacKkKlansman*
Sam Elliott-Green Book*
Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
Sam Rockwell-Vice*
Oof. This is a *lot* to have to look at once, and is maybe the worst category of the morning (give or take one more, which we'll address presently). Granted, I'm on record as being one of the lonely few who a) thinks Sam Elliott is kind of ridiculous in A Star is Born, and b) thinks Ali is giving the worst performance in Green Book, so this category was always going to be a little bit dicey for me. But then throw in Sam Rockwell's barely there Bush impersonation? Someone come over here and hit me with a car. At least we've got Grant's career-best work to carry us forward (and won't it be fun to watch him lose to one of the men we just talked about!).
Early winner prediction: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Original Screenplay
The Favourite*
First Reformed*
Green Book*
Roma*
Vice*
Thrilled to see First Reformed make it, gutted to see Eighth Grade miss, and prepared to straight-up fist-fight anyone who thinks that Green Book or Vice is better written than either of those.
Early winner prediction: The Favourite
Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman*
Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
If Beale Street Could Talk*
A Star is Born*
Hello Buster Scruggs! The Academy decided to love you today, though I'd be hard-pressed to figure out why. When is the last time an anthology-style film like this was nominated for writing? I don't know my Oscar history quite well enough for that (at least not off the top of my head), but I'd guess that it's been a good half-century. Meanwhile, I'm still elated for everything related to Can You Ever Forgive Me? What a beautiful and bracing movie that is, and what a shame that we're not talking about it more.
Early winner prediction: BlacKkKlansman
Production Design
Black Panther*
The Favourite*
First Man*
Mary Poppins Returns*
Roma
Pour out a single, sad drink for First Man, and then do like Damien Chazelle and throw a cymbal at someone. First Man becomes Chazelle's least-nominated film in his career (though, as his only other two movies are La La Land and Whiplash, he's set a pretty high bar for himself in that regard). Roma popping up here also speaks to its overall strength. Also, on a groovy note, Hannah Beachler (for Black Panther) because the first ever black designer to be nominated in this category. One major flaw in the #oscarssowhite discussion is that it almost universally limited the discussion to the acting categories while involving the systematic hurdles and difficulties faced by people of color in the below-the-line categories. Good on the Black Panther train for smashing some of that.
Early winner prediction: Black Panther
Costume Design
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther*
The Favourite*
Mary Poppins Returns*
Mary Queen of Scots*
Hello again, Buster Scruggs! Who could say no to your fringe jackets and chaps? Generally, this category is super: the in-the-wheelhouse work (aka the royalty trappings of The Favourite and Mary Queen of Scots) is innovative and character-defining, and the fantastic-leaning movies (Mary Poppins and Black Panther) are each eye-popping sartorial successes in their own right.
Early winner prediction: The Favourite
Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War*
Christopher Robin*
First Man*
Ready Player One*
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Surprised but not surprised to see Black Panther miss here--sure, it's a huge movie, but would any of us argue that its special effects are its strongest element? Also surprised/not surprised to see Christopher Robin here (though now I've got to watch it, which is balls). And a surprised/not surprised hat trick for Solo, which I was predicting until the last possible moment and then threw away in a fit of whimsy.
Early winner prediction: First Man
Makeup and Hairstyling
Border
Mary Queen of Scots*
Vice*
Border's going to be a huge barrier for me trying to see all the nominees before the show, but from what I hear, I should be happy that it was included. Mostly I'm annoyed this nominee set means that Vice wins this in a walk, and even more so that Suspiria's painful and spectacular work was passed over here, because all the world is just idiots, idiots all the way down.
Early winner prediction: Vice
Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman*
Bohemian Rhapsody*
The Favourite
Green Book*
Vice*
Oh hey, remember earlier when I wanted to talk about the worst category of the morning? We might just be here. Granted, I'm more convinced by Bohemian Rhapsody's editing than most (I agree that it's messy, but this movie was literally made in the editing bay--if you didn't follow all the production controversies, the director basically abandoned the project and the editor had to just make a movie with the footage they had), but still, this is a garbage group. I'd love for this to mean that BlacKkKlansman's aggressive montaging gets an Oscar for it's troubles, but that's not the kind of world we have. Incidentally, this category, which is almost always associated with best picture, makes predicting the winner of the big prize particularly difficult. Seeming frontrunner Roma isn't nominated here, but other seeming frontrunners Green Book and A Star is Born aren't nominated for director, which is just as big a problem (if not bigger). Does this mean Klansman or The Favourite or even Vice (heaven save us) win, or do one of the others soldier through?
Early winner prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody
Cinematography
Cold War*
The Favourite*
Never Look Away
Roma*
A Star is Born*
Never Look Away, Germany's entry for best foreign language film this year, joins the top-tier ranks of nominations that made prognosticators everywhere rub their eyes and say 'I'm sorry, what just happened?' (though Alone Yet Not Alone's best original song nomination--later revealed to be cheating and then subsequently disqualified!--still takes the cake in that regard). Still, a spectacular lineup.
Early winner prediction: Roma
Original Score
BlacKkKlansman*
Black Panther*
If Beale Street Could Talk*
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
Sure, why not? BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, and Beale Street are all great, Isle of Dogs was unavoidable, I guess, and Mary Poppins has music.
Early winner prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk
Sound Mixing
Black Panther*
Bohemian Rhapsody*
First Man*
Roma
A Star is Born*
A fairly expected group--Roma's inclusion is one I saw coming, but dug my heels in against for no particular reason--if a somewhat uninspiring one.
Early winner prediction: A Star is Born
Sound Editing
Black Panther*
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man*
A Quiet Place
Roma
Much more shocking as far as sound categories go. BoRhap and Roma both getting in here shows the Academy's love, and at least A Quiet Place can take its solitary consolation nod here.
Early winner prediction: First Man
Original Song
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings"-The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
"All the Stars"-Black Panther*
"The Place Where Lost Things Go"-Mary Poppins Returns*
"I'll Fight"-RBG*
"Shallow"-A Star is Born*
A fairly defensible lineup from one of the most disaster-prone categories. Part of me wants to make more Buster Scruggs jokes, but I've also been singing that song in my head since I watched it, so I suppose it wins this round. All the Stars is great, the Mary Poppins song is fine enough, and the Academy would never pass up the chance to nominate Diane Warren's latest primal shriek at the moon/Oscar gods, so we'll take the RBG song and we'll like it. And, of course, Shallow had this win in the bag since the trailer premiered (which, incidentally, makes Lady Gaga the first woman ever nominated for Actress and Original Song in the same year). It feels as though I sang Shallow in the womb. Shallow exists in a place beyond time. In a quiet room, bathed in soft light, Lady Gaga howls the 'aaaaa-eee-aaaa--ya-ya' part of the song while Gritty (yes, that Gritty) watches quietly.
Early winner prediction: "Shallow"-A Star is Born
Animated Film
Incredibles 2*
Isle of Dogs*
Mirai*
Ralph Breaks the Internet*
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse*
Hooray for Spider-Man! Here's hoping that it's got as good a chance of winning as I think it does. Otherwise, I don't have much to say here--I haven't seen two of the other nominees, and the ones I have seen (Incredibles and Isle of Dogs) were both fine, if uninspiring.
Early winner prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Foreign Language Film
Capernaum-Lebanon*
Cold War-Poland*
Never Look Away-Germany
Roma-Mexico*
Shoplifters-Japan*
If Roma weren't here, one imagines that this would be one heck of a competition, as both Cold War and Never Look Away have significant Academy support, and Shoplifters is a huge critical hit, but Roma *is* here--and is tied with Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon for the all-time most nominations for a foreign language film--so this category can only go one way.
Early winner prediction: Roma
Documentary Feature
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap*
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG*
What a stellar list this is. I'll admit that I haven't seen a few of these (it's historically difficult to get me motivated to watch documentaries), but what I have seen and what I've heard suggests one of the best lineups in years. Plus, Minding the Gap's nomination is the only one this morning that made me punch my fist and yell and make my neighbors wonder how I spend my mornings. This is absolutely my favorite nomination of the day, and if you haven't seen the movie yet, go watch it (it's streaming on Hulu).
Note: of the main nominees (i.e. not animated, foreign language. or documentary, because most of those don't open near me), I haven't seen Cold War, At Eternity's Gate, The Wife, Border, Never Look Away, and RBG, and of those, I've got no way to access Border or Never Look Away, which means that, unless something changes in the next month, I might have to give up already on trying to see everything before Oscar night.
Predictions-wise, I certainly could have done worse. I only completely nailed Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and Animated Film, but I also only totally screwed up Sound Editing and Original Song.
For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated movies:
1. Roma-10
2. The Favourite-10
3. Vice-8
4. A Star is Born-8
5. Black Panther-7
6. BlacKkKlansman-6
7. Green Book-5
8. Bohemian Rhapsody-5
9. Mary Poppins Returns-4
10. First Man-4
And here's a list of notable movies that didn't get any nominations at all: Beautiful Boy, Leave No Trace, Burning, Hereditary, Widows, Destroyer, Ben is Back, Boy Erased, The Hate U Give, Crazy Rich Asians, Eighth Grade, The Death of Stalin, Aquaman, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom, Mission: Impossible--Fallout, Suspiria, among others
You win some, you lose some.
How do you react? Good nominations? Bad nominations? What made you fist pump at 7.30 in the morning? What made you throw your breakfast across the room? These aren't the Christmas presents we asked for, but we can do our best with them anyhow.
Note: I'll put an asterisk next to the nominees I predicted, so you can judge me accordingly. Spoiler alert--I did not thrive.
Picture
BlacKkKlansman*
Black Panther*
Bohemian Rhapsody*
The Favourite*
Green Book*
Roma*
A Star is Born*
Vice*
Rather than focusing on the bad (Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Green Book would all historically, for-the-record-books terrible nominees on their own, and somehow we got all three of them!), let's look at the good: Roma and The Favourite are both masterpieces, BlacKkKlansman is Spike Lee's first ever Oscar success (which is ridiculous), Black Panther getting nominated is a big cultural moment, a massive moment of validation for comic fans, Marvel, and calls for representation (as well as for action movies in general--other than Mad Max, when is the last time a pure action/adventure movie got in? The Original Star Wars?), and A Star is Born is super too. Are five great nominees enough to offset three horrendous ones? Ask me again after we know who wins. Also, fun fact: according to Twitter, the average gross of these films is over $180 million, so all the people who lament that Oscars only honor movies they haven't seen clearly need to just see more movies. (Sure, Black Panther being in the top three highest grossing films of all time helps, but A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody are also over $200 million.)
Note: I won't call this category as 100% for me, since I predicted nine nominees instead of eight, and would have included If Beale Street Could Talk instead of Black Panther had I chosen nine.
Early Winner Prediction: Roma (though this is super up in the air now, which is really exciting.)
Director
Alfonso Cuaron-Roma*
Yorgos Lanthimos-The Favourite*
Spike Lee-BlacKkKlansman*
Adam McKay-Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski-Cold War
Adam McKay really is the turd in this particular punch bowl (seriously, who likes Vice this much? How did this happen?), but let's look at the positive: seeing Lee, Lanthimos, and Pawlikowski all get their first nominations at once is a wonderful thing (another seriously: how is this Spike Lee's first director nod?). Also worth noting that this is only the second time in Academy history that two foreign language films have been nominated in this category (the first being in Ingmar Bergman and Lina Wertmüller in 1976), which is groovy. Even groovier is that it's almost a guarantee that Cuaron takes this, which will make him the first director of a foreign language film ever to do so.
Early winner prediction: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Actress
Yalitza Aparicio-Roma
Glenn Close-The Wife*
Olivia Colman-The Favourite*
Lady Gaga-A Star is Born*
Melissa McCarthy-Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
A fairly lovely list, though I will be the first to admit that I don't understand any of the accolades that Lady Gaga's been getting (great singer, sure, but great performance? ehh). Looking forward to the Close/Colman/Gaga celebrity cage match that's about to ensue.
Early winner prediction: Glenn Close, The Wife
Actor
Christian Bale-Vice*
Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born*
Willem Dafoe-At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek-Bohemian Rhapsody*
Viggo Mortensen-Green Book*
Shocking no one, the men's categories are, as always, a bit duller and upsetting than the women's. As a Rami Malek superfan (I've literally got a print and a button with his face on it), it pains me to say it, but is his inclusion here the worst part of the whole morning? Definitely possible. Not enthused by Mortensen or Bale, and even less enthused that now I have to try and see At Eternity's Gate. At least B-Coops can wash away the pain of his best director snub with the sweet sweet balm of knowing that he deserves to win this in a walk.
Early winner prediction: Christian Bale, Vice (or, to paraphrase Nietzsche, God is dead, we killed him)
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams-Vice
Regina King-If Beale Street Could Talk*
Emma Stone-The Favourite*
Marina de Tavira-Roma
Rachel Weisz-The Favourite*
I said yesterday that this category was primed for chaos, and I wasn't wrong.The Marina de Tavira nomination is massively surprising, and shows just how strong Roma is going into the next phase (though, silly note, I'm the slightest bit she's nominated, only for the very stupid reason that the Favourite women have been together alphabetically the whole season, and this list is less aesthetically pleasing now). I knew not predicting Amy Adams was silliness, but I let my heart be my guide, which hear means I tried to throw Vice in the toilet where it belongs.
Early winner prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk
Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali-Green Book*
Adam Driver-BlacKkKlansman*
Sam Elliott-Green Book*
Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
Sam Rockwell-Vice*
Oof. This is a *lot* to have to look at once, and is maybe the worst category of the morning (give or take one more, which we'll address presently). Granted, I'm on record as being one of the lonely few who a) thinks Sam Elliott is kind of ridiculous in A Star is Born, and b) thinks Ali is giving the worst performance in Green Book, so this category was always going to be a little bit dicey for me. But then throw in Sam Rockwell's barely there Bush impersonation? Someone come over here and hit me with a car. At least we've got Grant's career-best work to carry us forward (and won't it be fun to watch him lose to one of the men we just talked about!).
Early winner prediction: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Original Screenplay
The Favourite*
First Reformed*
Green Book*
Roma*
Vice*
Thrilled to see First Reformed make it, gutted to see Eighth Grade miss, and prepared to straight-up fist-fight anyone who thinks that Green Book or Vice is better written than either of those.
Early winner prediction: The Favourite
Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman*
Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
If Beale Street Could Talk*
A Star is Born*
Hello Buster Scruggs! The Academy decided to love you today, though I'd be hard-pressed to figure out why. When is the last time an anthology-style film like this was nominated for writing? I don't know my Oscar history quite well enough for that (at least not off the top of my head), but I'd guess that it's been a good half-century. Meanwhile, I'm still elated for everything related to Can You Ever Forgive Me? What a beautiful and bracing movie that is, and what a shame that we're not talking about it more.
Early winner prediction: BlacKkKlansman
Production Design
Black Panther*
The Favourite*
First Man*
Mary Poppins Returns*
Roma
Pour out a single, sad drink for First Man, and then do like Damien Chazelle and throw a cymbal at someone. First Man becomes Chazelle's least-nominated film in his career (though, as his only other two movies are La La Land and Whiplash, he's set a pretty high bar for himself in that regard). Roma popping up here also speaks to its overall strength. Also, on a groovy note, Hannah Beachler (for Black Panther) because the first ever black designer to be nominated in this category. One major flaw in the #oscarssowhite discussion is that it almost universally limited the discussion to the acting categories while involving the systematic hurdles and difficulties faced by people of color in the below-the-line categories. Good on the Black Panther train for smashing some of that.
Early winner prediction: Black Panther
Costume Design
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther*
The Favourite*
Mary Poppins Returns*
Mary Queen of Scots*
Hello again, Buster Scruggs! Who could say no to your fringe jackets and chaps? Generally, this category is super: the in-the-wheelhouse work (aka the royalty trappings of The Favourite and Mary Queen of Scots) is innovative and character-defining, and the fantastic-leaning movies (Mary Poppins and Black Panther) are each eye-popping sartorial successes in their own right.
Early winner prediction: The Favourite
Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War*
Christopher Robin*
First Man*
Ready Player One*
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Surprised but not surprised to see Black Panther miss here--sure, it's a huge movie, but would any of us argue that its special effects are its strongest element? Also surprised/not surprised to see Christopher Robin here (though now I've got to watch it, which is balls). And a surprised/not surprised hat trick for Solo, which I was predicting until the last possible moment and then threw away in a fit of whimsy.
Early winner prediction: First Man
Makeup and Hairstyling
Border
Mary Queen of Scots*
Vice*
Border's going to be a huge barrier for me trying to see all the nominees before the show, but from what I hear, I should be happy that it was included. Mostly I'm annoyed this nominee set means that Vice wins this in a walk, and even more so that Suspiria's painful and spectacular work was passed over here, because all the world is just idiots, idiots all the way down.
Early winner prediction: Vice
Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman*
Bohemian Rhapsody*
The Favourite
Green Book*
Vice*
Oh hey, remember earlier when I wanted to talk about the worst category of the morning? We might just be here. Granted, I'm more convinced by Bohemian Rhapsody's editing than most (I agree that it's messy, but this movie was literally made in the editing bay--if you didn't follow all the production controversies, the director basically abandoned the project and the editor had to just make a movie with the footage they had), but still, this is a garbage group. I'd love for this to mean that BlacKkKlansman's aggressive montaging gets an Oscar for it's troubles, but that's not the kind of world we have. Incidentally, this category, which is almost always associated with best picture, makes predicting the winner of the big prize particularly difficult. Seeming frontrunner Roma isn't nominated here, but other seeming frontrunners Green Book and A Star is Born aren't nominated for director, which is just as big a problem (if not bigger). Does this mean Klansman or The Favourite or even Vice (heaven save us) win, or do one of the others soldier through?
Early winner prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody
Cinematography
Cold War*
The Favourite*
Never Look Away
Roma*
A Star is Born*
Never Look Away, Germany's entry for best foreign language film this year, joins the top-tier ranks of nominations that made prognosticators everywhere rub their eyes and say 'I'm sorry, what just happened?' (though Alone Yet Not Alone's best original song nomination--later revealed to be cheating and then subsequently disqualified!--still takes the cake in that regard). Still, a spectacular lineup.
Early winner prediction: Roma
Original Score
BlacKkKlansman*
Black Panther*
If Beale Street Could Talk*
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
Sure, why not? BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, and Beale Street are all great, Isle of Dogs was unavoidable, I guess, and Mary Poppins has music.
Early winner prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk
Sound Mixing
Black Panther*
Bohemian Rhapsody*
First Man*
Roma
A Star is Born*
A fairly expected group--Roma's inclusion is one I saw coming, but dug my heels in against for no particular reason--if a somewhat uninspiring one.
Early winner prediction: A Star is Born
Sound Editing
Black Panther*
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man*
A Quiet Place
Roma
Much more shocking as far as sound categories go. BoRhap and Roma both getting in here shows the Academy's love, and at least A Quiet Place can take its solitary consolation nod here.
Early winner prediction: First Man
Original Song
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings"-The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
"All the Stars"-Black Panther*
"The Place Where Lost Things Go"-Mary Poppins Returns*
"I'll Fight"-RBG*
"Shallow"-A Star is Born*
A fairly defensible lineup from one of the most disaster-prone categories. Part of me wants to make more Buster Scruggs jokes, but I've also been singing that song in my head since I watched it, so I suppose it wins this round. All the Stars is great, the Mary Poppins song is fine enough, and the Academy would never pass up the chance to nominate Diane Warren's latest primal shriek at the moon/Oscar gods, so we'll take the RBG song and we'll like it. And, of course, Shallow had this win in the bag since the trailer premiered (which, incidentally, makes Lady Gaga the first woman ever nominated for Actress and Original Song in the same year). It feels as though I sang Shallow in the womb. Shallow exists in a place beyond time. In a quiet room, bathed in soft light, Lady Gaga howls the 'aaaaa-eee-aaaa--ya-ya' part of the song while Gritty (yes, that Gritty) watches quietly.
Early winner prediction: "Shallow"-A Star is Born
Animated Film
Incredibles 2*
Isle of Dogs*
Mirai*
Ralph Breaks the Internet*
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse*
Hooray for Spider-Man! Here's hoping that it's got as good a chance of winning as I think it does. Otherwise, I don't have much to say here--I haven't seen two of the other nominees, and the ones I have seen (Incredibles and Isle of Dogs) were both fine, if uninspiring.
Early winner prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Foreign Language Film
Capernaum-Lebanon*
Cold War-Poland*
Never Look Away-Germany
Roma-Mexico*
Shoplifters-Japan*
If Roma weren't here, one imagines that this would be one heck of a competition, as both Cold War and Never Look Away have significant Academy support, and Shoplifters is a huge critical hit, but Roma *is* here--and is tied with Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon for the all-time most nominations for a foreign language film--so this category can only go one way.
Early winner prediction: Roma
Documentary Feature
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap*
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG*
What a stellar list this is. I'll admit that I haven't seen a few of these (it's historically difficult to get me motivated to watch documentaries), but what I have seen and what I've heard suggests one of the best lineups in years. Plus, Minding the Gap's nomination is the only one this morning that made me punch my fist and yell and make my neighbors wonder how I spend my mornings. This is absolutely my favorite nomination of the day, and if you haven't seen the movie yet, go watch it (it's streaming on Hulu).
Note: of the main nominees (i.e. not animated, foreign language. or documentary, because most of those don't open near me), I haven't seen Cold War, At Eternity's Gate, The Wife, Border, Never Look Away, and RBG, and of those, I've got no way to access Border or Never Look Away, which means that, unless something changes in the next month, I might have to give up already on trying to see everything before Oscar night.
Predictions-wise, I certainly could have done worse. I only completely nailed Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and Animated Film, but I also only totally screwed up Sound Editing and Original Song.
For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated movies:
1. Roma-10
2. The Favourite-10
3. Vice-8
4. A Star is Born-8
5. Black Panther-7
6. BlacKkKlansman-6
7. Green Book-5
8. Bohemian Rhapsody-5
9. Mary Poppins Returns-4
10. First Man-4
And here's a list of notable movies that didn't get any nominations at all: Beautiful Boy, Leave No Trace, Burning, Hereditary, Widows, Destroyer, Ben is Back, Boy Erased, The Hate U Give, Crazy Rich Asians, Eighth Grade, The Death of Stalin, Aquaman, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom, Mission: Impossible--Fallout, Suspiria, among others
You win some, you lose some.
How do you react? Good nominations? Bad nominations? What made you fist pump at 7.30 in the morning? What made you throw your breakfast across the room? These aren't the Christmas presents we asked for, but we can do our best with them anyhow.
Monday, January 21, 2019
Oscar Predictions 2018: And They Were Never Lovely Again
In case poor Susie isn't being clear, this Oscar nomination eve sees me girding my proverbial loins--and you might want to as well. It's been a corker of a movie year all right; anarchy and controversy and slow creeping horror all congealing to provide a fitting coda for the swirling and implacable maelstrom of 2018. And if you thought you were done, if you thought that garbage year had demanded its pound(s) of flesh from you and had laid down to die in the annals of history, then think again, because Vice, Green Book, and Bohemian Rhapsody are all going to be best picture nominees, and no one seems to be able to stop it. Susie Bannion may have dealt with murderous witches, the Holocaust, and DDR fashion choices, but she's still got to face losing all her well-deserved nominations to some fake teeth and 2 Driving 2 Daisy. So get those loins girded!
Maybe it's because it's my 13th year of Oscar predictions and I'm feeling superstitious, or maybe it's because I'm writing this to Nicholas Brittell's messy, keening score for Vice (far and away the best part of an otherwise hideous movie), but tomorrow morning seems poised to ring in the triumphant return of the Academy of years past. As I mentioned in this space last year, the past half-decade of Academy in-house politics has been about trying to decide who the Academy wants to be--its diversity initiative (during which roughly 30% of the Academy's voting membership has been added, with a particular eye cast toward diverse voices and young/up-and-coming film professionals). Last year I wrote that 2017 seemed like a tipping point--a tense caesura that could see the Oscars embracing its own attempts to drag its members into the 21st century or falling back with a smile on its face. And on the face of it, the Oscars seemed to choose forward, with last year's slate (Lady Bird! Get Out! Call Me By Your Name! Phantom Thread!) hinting toward a future with an ever broader definition of constitutes an 'Oscar movie.'
And then this year happened.
Maybe I'm being too apocalyptic (considering we've yet to see the nominations), but if last year was a tipping point, this year is going to test the strength of that decision to its very core. So let's do some predictive triage!
(note: I've now totally committed to my new predictions format, in which I do it all in one breathless post. Long-time readers (who do exist--Привет москва!) may remember five-day extravaganzae of years past, but this method is just more streamlined) (...except for the part where it's still punishingly, unforgivably long).
(note note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood.)
Best Picture
Green Book
A Star is Born
Roma
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
Alternate: First Man
The trick here isn't what gets nominated, but how many. Since 2011, the Academy has used a preferential ballot to determine the number of nominees (minimum 5, maximum 10), and every year but two since then has given us nine nominees. And if we're having nine nominees, they will almost certainly come from these 10 films (barring a massive surprise like A Quiet Place, Leave No Trace or Mary Poppins Returns). But how many? I feel confident that the top 5 are unshakable, but any of the next five might miss for any of the others. I'd like to be optimistic and think that Vice or BoRhap might miraculously bow out (see above, re: long, dramatic monologuing), but I'd think that Beale Street and Black Panther on thinner ice. Beale Street has been ignored by too many precursors and carries Moonlight's reputation like an albatross around its neck. Meanwhile, I've no idea why most prognosticators feel like Black Panther is a lock--I'm keeping it in my predictions for now, but if it falls short tomorrow, remember how you read it here first that it requires a very different Academy indeed to put Black Panther up for the top prize--and can that same Academy also do Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody at the same time?
Director
Alfonso Cuaron-Roma
Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born
Spike Lee-BlacKkKlansman
Peter Farrelly-Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos-The Favourite
Alternate: Adam McKay-Vice
Good lord does my heart yearn for Lanthimos (maybe my favorite working director?) to get in here, and I'm (vaguely) confident that he will. The others seem solid enough (my heart wants to call for a Farrelly snub, but my brain thinks that Lee and Cooper are more vulnerable). Surprises may come from Damien Chazelle (First Man--a film whose Oscar chances are completely befuddling), or even Barry Jenkins/Beale Street or Ryan Coogler/Black Panther if either of those films' chances are less dire than I tend to think.
Actor
Christian Bale-Vice
Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born
Rami Malek-Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen-Green Book
Ethan Hawke-First Reformed
Alternate: John David Washington-BlacKkKlansman
Am I too bullish on my Ethan Hawke pick? Maybe, but I honestly don't see it going any other way. And all the other surprises (Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man, Ben Foster/Leave No Trace) seem too far-fetched to worry about.
Actress
Glenn Close-The Wife
Lady Gaga-A Star is Born
Olivia Colman-The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Toni Collette-Hereditary
Alternate: Yalitza Aparicio-Roma
The first category to really give me significant pause. The first four are set in stone, and the final slot is a complete tossup. I've done the very silly thing and voted with my heart with Collette, who is profoundly deserving but probably long shot at best. Aparicio is a safer bet, as is Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns or Viola Davis/Widows. Alternately, if you want to be even wackier, I almost called an out-of-nowhere nom for Julia Roberts in Ben is Back, and wouldn't that be fun?
Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali-Green Book
Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Elliott-A Star is Born
Adam Driver-BlacKkKlansman
Timothée Chalamet-Beautiful Boy
Alternate: Michael B. Jordan-Black Panther
I don't feel confident about *any* of these picks other than Ali and Grant, but everything else seems even less plausible. If I'm afraid of Black Panther missing best picture, can I really put it into any other major races? Do we really think that Sam Rockwell's ten-minute long Bush impersonation in Vice is really grabbing enough eyeballs? Do we really think that critically loved long shots like Steven Yeun in Burning or Allessandro Nivola in Disobedience have a shot? I suppose my answer to all of these questions is a big ol' no. Then again, if you asked me if I really thought Timmy C., Sam Elliott, and Driver would all be nominated, I'd also probably say no, so here we are.
Supporting Actress
Regina King-If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone-The Favourite
Rachel Weisz-The Favourite
Claire Foy-First Man
Emily Blunt-A Quiet Place
Alternate: Amy Adams-Vice
I'm probably doing a very silly thing by predicting an Amy Adams miss, but this is a category rife with silly things. King, the purported frontrunner, has missed a few important precursors and could easily miss. Stone and Weisz could cancel each other out, or move up to the Lead Actress race. And do people still love First Man and A Quiet Place at all? Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) and Elizabeth Debicki (Widows) could also sneak in (or Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased, for that matter). Basically, this category is absolute chaos, so I'ma get in the spirit and predict a little chaos.
Original Screenplay
The Favourite
Roma
Green Book
Vice
First Reformed
Alternate: Eighth Grade
It is my hope of hopes that either Green Book or Vice (or both!) sits this one out to make room for both First Reformed and Eighth Grade, but the Oscar gods are unjust, which means the best movies have to fight for the last slot, and the garbage leaks in without a fight. Look for A Quiet Place or Bohemian Rhapsody to sneak in here if either have more support than I'm expecting, and look to Cold War for a classy surprise.
Adapted Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
A Star is Born
Leave No Trace
Alternate: The Death of Stalin
I've seen a few pundits predicting Black Panther and/or Crazy Rich Asians making good here, but I'll believe it when I see it (again, I can't very well predict Black Panther to bag other major categories if I'm worried for its best picture chances). I'm not super confident on my Leave No Trace pick, but Debra Granik movies (of Winter's Bone fame) are good at sneaking in at the last second with more support than expected, so here we are.
Production Design
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Black Panther
First Man
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Alternate: Roma
I feel silly for leaving Roma off, but it's equally silly to bet against the Harry Potter series in this category. In the worst possible timeline, Welcome to Marwen, Green Book, and Bohemian Rhapsody will all muscle in here.
Costume Design
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate: Crazy Rich Asians
Too much of the crafts categories are going to be defined by how much the Academy loves Bohemian Rhapsody--look for it to strike first blood here. I'd also love to see Crazy Rich Asians land here, where it has its best (only?) shot, but I couldn't bring myself to predict it happen. Look to Fantastic Beasts, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, or Colette for curveballs.
Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Christopher Robin
Alternate: First Man
I'm sure I'm way off base calling for 4/5 slots to be filled by Disney (and at the expense of First Man) but that's the exciting thing about hegemonic corporate monopolies--they get the shiny gold trophies! Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other movies still in the running are Solo, Welcome to Marwen, Ant-Man and the Wasp, and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Vice
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
Alternate: Bohemian Rhapsody
Always a wild and wacky category to try and pin down, so I will throw lots of fat suits and false teeth at the board while weeping for jaw-dropping (or jaw-crushing) makeup effects in Suspiria. Note: like visual effects, this has been previously narrowed down to seven films. The other three still in contention are the aforementioned Suspiria, Border, and Stan and Ollie.
Film Editing
A Star is Born
Roma
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate: Green Book
Is it silliness to leave out best picture frontrunner Green Book out of this category (which is traditionally tied to winning best picture), or to leave out Adam McKay's signature kitchen sink anarchic garbage from Vice? Probably, but I'm nothing if not silly.
Cinematography
Roma
First Man
A Star is Born
Cold War
The Favourite
Alternate: If Beale Street Could Talk
Honestly, it would be shocking for anything other than these six to be nominated, though if Bohemian Rhapsody or Black Panther (or the tapioca stylings of Green Book, god forbid) feel like storming any barns tomorrow morning, here'd be the place to do it.
Original Score
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Vice
Alternate: Isle of Dogs
I imagine that the only reason I've predicted Vice here is because I'm still listening to the soundtrack and it sounds awesome and feels right. Still, I'd bet someone else's left nut that Isle of Dogs or Mary Poppins Returns takes that slot instead. And fingers crossed for a wacky surprise like Annihilation or The Death of Stalin!
Sound Mixing
A Star is Born
First Man
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
A Quiet Place
Alternate: Roma
Another day, another instance of me wondering why I didn't predict Roma here. Who knows? The Academy is fickle. Maybe they shower Roma with love, maybe we're all wrong and Solo and Mission Impossible triumph here instead. The world is an imperfect place.
Sound Editing
First Man
Black Panther
Solo
Incredibles 2
Ready Player One
Alternate: A Quiet Place
So here's the thing--I've been predicting these five for months and months, and I don't necessarily think they're right, but I'm too wedded to them now to stop. Send help! Alternately, rather than sending help, predict A Quiet Place or Roma or A Star is Born or Bohemian Rhapsody and then be real smug about your victory.
Original Song
"Shallow"-A Star is Born
"All the Stars"-Black Panther
"The Place Where Lost Things Go"-Mary Poppins Returns
"Girl in the Movies"-Dumplin'
"I'll Fight"-RBG
Alternate: "Trip a Little Light Fantastic"-Mary Poppins Returns
This is definitely the safe list, but I've no opinions passionate enough to make me be unsafe. Maybe "Revelation" (Boy Erased's funereal love dirge) or "We Won't Move"/The Hate U Give makes it? Shame that the lovely "Suspirum" from Suspiria won't. ...Shame, really, that I haven't been talking about Suspiria this whole time. What a world! No room for beautiful wickedness.
Animated Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Mirai
Alternate: Smallfoot
Always a tough category to predict, as it's heavily reliant on both little international movies that open nowhere near me and massive popcorn fare that I tend to not do in theaters. This list looks solid though.
Foreign Language Film
Roma-Mexico
Cold War-Poland
Shoplifters-Japan
Capernaum-Lebanon
Birds of Passage-Colombia
Alternate: Burning-South Korea
A bit silly of me to predict a second, out-of-nowhere for Colombia and director Ciro Guerra, particularly when friendly and safe(ish) Euro-centric titles like Germany's Never Look Away and Denmark's The Guilty are right there, but hey. It is, as they say, my party, and my party includes South American nightmare fuel.
Documentary Feature
Won't You Be My Neighbor?
Three Identical Strangers
RBG
Minding the Gap
The Distant Barking of Dogs
Alternate: Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Year in and year out, the hardest category for me to get excited about--but I' m soldiering through, because I'm a giver. Out on a bit of a limb here, predicting that the Academy embraces both the skateboarding-cum-domestic abuse doc Minding the Gap and wacky Ukrainian child war romp The Distant Barking of Dogs over likelier candidates like Hale County or docu-blockbuster Free Solo.
For those of you playing along, here are the movies I'm predicting for the most nominations:
A Star is Born-10
The Favourite-9
Black Panther-9
First Man-7
BlacKkKlansman-6
Roma-6
Incidentally, I know it's a little silly to devote so much space to Oscar predictions when I haven't sounded off on my own preferences yet--and those posts, each longer and more horrifying than the last, are definitely in the pipeline. I've still got quite a few titles that I'd love to work through in the next two-ish weeks. In the meantime, if I could guarantee one nomination tomorrow, it'd be Suspiria for anything (makeup and original song are the only categories in which it has a chance, but I'd love to see it pop up elsewhere too), and if I could take away one nomination....where to begin? Bohemian Rhapsody or Vice for best picture? Rami Malek for actor? Bohemian Rhapsody for pretty much any craft category other than film editing? Vice and Green Book in screenplay? There's a wealth of trash to be had, if my predictions are anywhere near correct. Picking just one nomination to prevent feels like swimming upstream against a mudslide.
Come tomorrow morning, all of these predictions will be moot, and you can bet I'll be back in this space tomorrow to cheer and/or lick my cinematic wounds. Until then--what are you hoping for? Dreading? Where did I go wrong? Or, better question, where did the Academy?
Sunday, March 4, 2018
Final Oscar Predictions: Better Late than Never
Feeling blogged out yet? No lie, I am too (still shocked that I can hit a point where I feel like I've talked too much about movies), but this is what I get for leaving all of my movie-writing compulsions to the last second, and now I get to visit my procrastinating sins on all of you. For all of our sakes, I'll try to keep this brief-ish, but wild horses couldn't keep me from writing about Oscars (even if they had swords). I've been breathlessly predicting Oscars since the beginning of high school, and the day that I stop wanting to word-vomit into the ether about the Oscars is the day that I have permanently died on the inside. So I'm jumping back onto my keyboard (for the fourth time in three days, which is more than a little excessive), and heaven help anything that stands in my way.
This Oscar season has been a fascinating--by turns chaotic, predictable, and completely wide open. I fully anticipate getting a good half of these wrong. So maybe don't come to this space looking for guidance to win your local Oscar pool. Where's the fun in these things if you don't get to be a bit silly with your predictions? And dammit, I am going to have fun. So gird your loins, cuz it's about to get silly up in here.
Best Picture
The nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen here--and that's a crazy rarity. There hasn't been a race this open since 2006. And here's the thing: every possible winner is absolutely impossible as a winner, in that every movie that could win has to break some long-standing Oscar statistic.
First thing to know: Best Picture operates on a preferential balloting system, in which voters rank all films from best to worst. To win, a movie has to get 50% of the entire voting body's #1 votes. This more or less can't happen from the initial vote, so after ballots have been tabulated, the movie with the fewest #1 votes is removed, and those ballots are placed into their #2 piles (so if someone voted for Darkest Hour as #1 and Get Out as #2 for instance, and Darkest Hour got the fewest top votes, this person's best picture vote would now be for Get Out). And this process of elimination and redistribution continues until one movie has 50% of the votes. What that means: it's very important to have a passionate fanbase, but it's even more important to be widely liked, especially in a year this open. The winner here is probably going to be determined by the #2 and #3 votes on any given ballot.
So what do we have?
The Shape of Water won the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Critics Choice awards, is widely loved, and has the most nominations. *But* it wasn't nominated for the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award--which doesn't seem like a big deal, unless you know that only one movie in the history of the awards has won best picture without that nomination (this stat was an early signpost that La La Land would lose last year, despite its monolithic frontrunner status).
Three Billboards won the Golden Globes, the British Academy, and the Screen Actors Guild, and going into the nominations was the indisputable frontrunner. *But* it wasn't nominated for best director, and only four movies in Academy history have won picture without director (and two of those were in the first five years of the Oscars, in which they were still figuring out what they even were). Plus, Billboards is...polarizing. It'll get plenty of #1 votes, but it'll get plenty of #9 votes too.
Get Out and Lady Bird are in the same boat--they're both well-loved and respected, and it's tough to imagine anyone ranking them too low on their ballots, so they could easily capitalize on the preferential ballot system. *But* neither were nominated for any below the line categories, and only five movies in Academy have won in a similar situation. Add to this the general rule that best picture winners have to be nominated for film editing, and these two have another hurdle. And as if that weren't enougb, Get Out only has four total nominations, which would make it the best picture with the fewest total nominations since 1933. Plus both have subject matter that's inherently not Academy-friendly--Lady Bird is a high school movie about teenage girls, and Get Out is a racially charged horror-comedy.
Finally, Dunkirk could coast through by being inoffensive and impressive, *but* it wasn't nominated for either screenplay or acting awards, and only Grand Hotel in 1932 won best picture without support from either of those branches.
So what's the lesson of that big wall o' text? All of the top competitors would be far-fetched as winners (and the other four have the same obstacles, plus others still), but somebody's got to win. So who takes it? Absolutely no idea. Smart money is probably on The Shape of Water or Three Billboards, but the past few years of Oscars have established a trend of big movies winning a boatload of Oscars but losing best picture to a smaller competitor (Gravity won 7 but lost best picture to 12 Years a Slave, Mad Max won 6, The Revenant won 3, but Spotlight took picture, La La Land won 6 but Moonlight took the top prize, etc.)--and all of that speaks well for Get Out and Lady Bird. It's a total toss-up.
Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Here: Lady Macbeth
Man, Get Out is absolutely not winning. What a silly prediction I've just made.
Director
The nominees:
Guillermo Del Toro-The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan-Dunkirk
Jordan Peele-Get Out
Paul Thomas Anderson-Phantom Thread
Here's something much easier--Del Toro's got all the momentum, Shape of Water's arguably one of the biggest (or most flashy) 'directorial' achievements in the category, and he's at a point in his career where people want to acknowledge the great work he's been doing for years. Some people have whispered about a Nolan upset, but I honestly think Gerwig or Peele would be more likely.
Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro-The Shape of Water
Could Win: Jordan Peele-Get Out
Should Win: Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: Luca Guadagnino-Call Me by Your Name
Actress
The nominees:
Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie-I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
Meryl Streep-The Post
The narrative for all four acting categories is the same: the same person has won every televised award (critics choice, golden globes, screen actors guild, british academy)--the first time this has ever happened. So pick anyone other than those four winners at your own peril. In this category, that means McDormand takes the cake. It's a shame--this category looked to be so competitive at the beginning of the season, and it certainly should have stayed that way, but everything just stagnated.
Will Win: Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: Florence Pugh-Lady Macbeth
Actor
The nominees:
Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya-Get Out
Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington-Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Oldman's the one to beat here. I wish Chalamet could upset (as seemed much more likely in December), but he'll have to content himself with being the youngest best actor nominee since the 30s.
Will Win: Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
Could Win: Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name
Should Win: Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name*
Should Have Been Here: James McAvoy-Split
*I haven't seen Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Mary J. Blige-Mudbound
Allison Janney-I, Tonya
Lesley Manville-Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer-The Shape of Water
Janney's in the pole position, with Metcalf snapping at her heels and Manville hoping to sneak between the two.
Will Win: Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird (look, Janney's going to win, but I just can't predict those top four, and this category feels like the likeliest place for an upset)
Could Win: Allison Janney-I, Tonya
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: Tiffany Haddish-Girls Trip
Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins-The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer-All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Another snoozefest--Rockwell wins.
Will Win: Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Should Win: Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Should Have Been Here: Armie Hammer-Call Me by Your Name
Original Screenplay
The nominees:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
One of the closest races of the year, and one to keep an eye on for clues to best picture. Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards have been locked at the top for months, and each could conceivably walk away with it. Slight advantage goes to either Get Out (if they want to reward the movie somewhere, this is the easiest place to do it) or Three Billboards (a very verbose, flashy script, plus best picture heat).
Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
This should be an easy call--Call Me is the only best picture nominee, has been universally praised for its script, and was written by James Ivory, a monumentally important director of the 80s and 90s who 89 and as-of-yet Oscarless. Still, part of me worries whether Call Me is too divisive or off-putting to straight voters, leaving a hole for Mudbound's fans to slip through. Still, Call Me is definitely the odds-on frontrunner.
Will Win: Call Me by Your Name
Could Win: Mudbound
Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Here: Lady Macbeth
Production Design
The nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Tight race between Blade Runner and Water, with the latter probably pulling in more votes due to its beloved/BP nominee status. As long as those Beauty and the Beast hate crime visuals don't win, I'll be happy.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Here: War for the Planet of the Apes
Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
Phantom Thread seems like the easy call--a movie about fashion in which the costumes are front and center--but if Shape of Water is going to sweep, look for this category to be an early indication. And there's always the chance that voters lose their minds and go for Beauty and the Beast, just to spite me.
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Phantom Thread*
Should Have Been Here: Blade Runner 2049
*I haven't seen Victoria and Abdul
Visual Effects
The nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
The poor Apes franchise is always a bridesmaid and never an Oscar winner, and this might be the year they can rectify that, but I'd imagine that love for Blade Runner's eye-popping visuals will carry the day.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Here: Thor: Ragnarok
Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder
Darkest Hour wins, no contest.
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Could Win: Wonder
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Darkest Hour)
Film Editing
The nominees:
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Conventional wisdom that suggests that this category is a place for the eventual best picture winner gets thrown out the window today as Water and Billboards take the back seat. Will voters warm more to the fractured timelines and war action of Dunkirk or the impeccably choreographed mayhem of Baby Driver? Tough question. Smart money's probably on Dunkirk, but...
Will Win: Baby Driver
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Baby Driver
Should Have Been Here: Lady Bird
Cinematography
The nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Roger Deakins, arguably the greatest living cinematographer, has been nominated 14 times for an Oscar without a win, and this year's work on Blade Runner seems like his best chance in a looooong time to finally take home a little gold man. Still, both Dunkirk and Shape of Water feature arresting visuals in more widely loved movies, so he's definitely not safe.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Here: All These Sleepless Nights
Original Score
The nominees:
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I'd love to see Johnny Greenwood/Phantom Thread come out on top, but it'll probably Hollywood composer royalty Alexandre Desplat for The Shape of Water. If Water loses here, look for it to lose just about everywhere else too.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Phantom Thread
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Should Have Been Here: Wonderstruck
Sound Mixing
The nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
This is a to-the-wire race between Baby Driver and Dunkirk, with Shape of Water as a possible dark horse if the movie begins to steamroll.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Baby Driver
Should Have Been Here: mother!
Sound Editing
The nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Same nominees, same argument.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Should Have Been Here: mother!
Original Song
The nominees:
"Mighty River"-Mudbound
"Mystery of Love"-Call Me by Your Name
"Remember Me"-Coco
"Stand Up for Something"-Marshall
"This is Me"-The Greatest Showman
Dead heat between Coco/former winners for Frozen and The Greatest Showman/former winners for La La Land. Could Mudbound or Call Me capitalize on the close race/their respective status as major nominees in other categories and pull of an upset? Probably not, but who knows?
Will Win: "This is Me"-The Greatest Showman
Could Win: "Remember Me"-Coco
Should Win: "Mystery of Love"-Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Here: "Visions of Gideon"-Call Me by Your Name
Animated Film
The nominees:
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Coco wins, in the easiest call of the night.
Will Win: Coco
Could Win: Loving Vincent
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Coco and The Boss Baby)
Foreign Language Film
The nominees:
A Fantastic Woman-Chile
The Insult-Lebanon
Loveless-Russia
On Body and Soul-Hungary
The Square-Sweden
Impossible to say--this seems like a legit five-way race. Loveless is arguably the biggest and most significant, The Square was the odds-on frontrunner at the beginning of the season, The Insult seems like the kind of big, emotionally open traditional winner, On Body and Soul is one of the most unique, and A Fantastic Woman hit at just the right time and captured the zeitgeist. So throw a dart or something.
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Could Win: The Square
Should Win: Abstain (haven't seen any of these, sadly)
Documentary Feature
The nominees:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Also tough to call. Last Men and Strong Island are emotionally resonant, Icarus is timely (it's about the Russian Olympic doping scandal), and Faces Places was made by French New Wave legend Agnes Varda, who's never won a competitive Oscar.
Will Win: Icarus
Could Win: Faces Places
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Last Men in Aleppo)
So that's that. By my predictions, The Shape of Water wins the most of the night (Director, Production Design, Original Score), but Get Out squeaks through to be the smallest best picture winner in 80 years. I'm probably wrong, right? We'll find out tonight!
Aaaaaand here's an extra bonus post! Note--feel free to check out here. I thought about doing this as a separate post, but decided to minimize the number of times I assault your facebook feed. As a nice summary of the year, and as a reminder that, despite my preocuppation with them, The Oscars aren't the be-all end-all of the cinematic year, underneath you'll find my anti-Oscar ballot. The only rule: I can't nominate anything that was nominated for an Oscar. What you'll find is that the cinematic talent displayed this year runs deep, and even if the Academy made some good choices, there is still a massive pool of accomplished artists who didn't aren't getting the attention they deserve.
So here we go! No commentary, no rankings--just alphabetical nominees, with winners in bold.
The Anti-Oscars
Best Picture
BPM
Casting JonBenet
The Florida Project
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Lady Macbeth
mother!
Nocturama
Raw
The Work
Director
Darren Aronofsky-mother!
Luca Guadagnino-Call Me by Your Name
Yorgos Lanthimos-The Killing of a Sacred Deer
William Oldroyd-Lady Macbeth
Denis Villeneuve-Blade Runner 2049
Actress
Gal Gadot-Wonder Woman
Vicky Krieps-Phantom Thread
Florence Pugh-Lady Macbeth
Kristen Stewart-Personal Shopper
Michelle Williams-All the Money in the World
Actor
James McAvoy-Split
Robert Pattinson-Good Time
Nahuel Perez Biscayart-BPM
Jeremy Renner-Wind River
Arnoid Valois-BPM
Supporting Actress
Naomie Ackie-Lady Macbeth
Betty Gabriel-Get Out
Tiffany Haddish-Girls Trip
Bria Vinaite-The Florida Project
Allison Williams-Get Out
Supporting Actor
Armie Hammer-Call Me by Your Name
Barry Keoghan-The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Sebastian Stan-I, Tonya
Patrick Stewart-Logan
Michael Stuhlbarg-Call Me by Your Name
Original Screenplay
BPM
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Nocturama
Personal Shopper
Phantom Thread
Adapted Screenplay
Blade Runner 2049
Lady Macbeth
The Lost City of Z
Thor: Ragnarok
Wonder Woman
Production Design
Atomic Blonde
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
mother!
Thor: Ragnarok
War for the Planet of the Apes
Costume Design
Atomic Blonde
The Beguiled
Blade Runner 2049
Lady Macbeth
Wonder Woman
Visual Effects
Alien: Covenant
Dunkirk
Okja
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Thor: Ragnarok
Makeup
Atomic Blonde
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Raw
Film Editing
Get Out
Good Time
Lady Bird
Logan Lucky
Nocturama
Cinematography
All These Sleepless Nights
The Beguiled
Call Me by Your Name
Lady Macbeth
The Wound
Original Score
Darkest Hour
Good Time
Logan
Mudbound
Wonderstruck
Sound Mixing
Atomic Blonde
The Florida Project
The Lost City of Z
Sound Editing
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
mother!
Phantom Thread
Raw
Thor: Ragnarok
Original Song
"The Greatest Show"-The Greatest Showman
"Never Enough"-The Greatest Showman
"Proud Corazon"-Coco
"Re-Write the Stars"-The Greatest Showman
"Visions of Gideon"-Call Me by Your Name
(...so I liked The Greatest Showman. Dealwithit.)
This Oscar season has been a fascinating--by turns chaotic, predictable, and completely wide open. I fully anticipate getting a good half of these wrong. So maybe don't come to this space looking for guidance to win your local Oscar pool. Where's the fun in these things if you don't get to be a bit silly with your predictions? And dammit, I am going to have fun. So gird your loins, cuz it's about to get silly up in here.
Best Picture
The nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen here--and that's a crazy rarity. There hasn't been a race this open since 2006. And here's the thing: every possible winner is absolutely impossible as a winner, in that every movie that could win has to break some long-standing Oscar statistic.
First thing to know: Best Picture operates on a preferential balloting system, in which voters rank all films from best to worst. To win, a movie has to get 50% of the entire voting body's #1 votes. This more or less can't happen from the initial vote, so after ballots have been tabulated, the movie with the fewest #1 votes is removed, and those ballots are placed into their #2 piles (so if someone voted for Darkest Hour as #1 and Get Out as #2 for instance, and Darkest Hour got the fewest top votes, this person's best picture vote would now be for Get Out). And this process of elimination and redistribution continues until one movie has 50% of the votes. What that means: it's very important to have a passionate fanbase, but it's even more important to be widely liked, especially in a year this open. The winner here is probably going to be determined by the #2 and #3 votes on any given ballot.
So what do we have?
The Shape of Water won the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Critics Choice awards, is widely loved, and has the most nominations. *But* it wasn't nominated for the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award--which doesn't seem like a big deal, unless you know that only one movie in the history of the awards has won best picture without that nomination (this stat was an early signpost that La La Land would lose last year, despite its monolithic frontrunner status).
Three Billboards won the Golden Globes, the British Academy, and the Screen Actors Guild, and going into the nominations was the indisputable frontrunner. *But* it wasn't nominated for best director, and only four movies in Academy history have won picture without director (and two of those were in the first five years of the Oscars, in which they were still figuring out what they even were). Plus, Billboards is...polarizing. It'll get plenty of #1 votes, but it'll get plenty of #9 votes too.
Get Out and Lady Bird are in the same boat--they're both well-loved and respected, and it's tough to imagine anyone ranking them too low on their ballots, so they could easily capitalize on the preferential ballot system. *But* neither were nominated for any below the line categories, and only five movies in Academy have won in a similar situation. Add to this the general rule that best picture winners have to be nominated for film editing, and these two have another hurdle. And as if that weren't enougb, Get Out only has four total nominations, which would make it the best picture with the fewest total nominations since 1933. Plus both have subject matter that's inherently not Academy-friendly--Lady Bird is a high school movie about teenage girls, and Get Out is a racially charged horror-comedy.
Finally, Dunkirk could coast through by being inoffensive and impressive, *but* it wasn't nominated for either screenplay or acting awards, and only Grand Hotel in 1932 won best picture without support from either of those branches.
So what's the lesson of that big wall o' text? All of the top competitors would be far-fetched as winners (and the other four have the same obstacles, plus others still), but somebody's got to win. So who takes it? Absolutely no idea. Smart money is probably on The Shape of Water or Three Billboards, but the past few years of Oscars have established a trend of big movies winning a boatload of Oscars but losing best picture to a smaller competitor (Gravity won 7 but lost best picture to 12 Years a Slave, Mad Max won 6, The Revenant won 3, but Spotlight took picture, La La Land won 6 but Moonlight took the top prize, etc.)--and all of that speaks well for Get Out and Lady Bird. It's a total toss-up.
Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Here: Lady Macbeth
Man, Get Out is absolutely not winning. What a silly prediction I've just made.
Director
The nominees:
Guillermo Del Toro-The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan-Dunkirk
Jordan Peele-Get Out
Paul Thomas Anderson-Phantom Thread
Here's something much easier--Del Toro's got all the momentum, Shape of Water's arguably one of the biggest (or most flashy) 'directorial' achievements in the category, and he's at a point in his career where people want to acknowledge the great work he's been doing for years. Some people have whispered about a Nolan upset, but I honestly think Gerwig or Peele would be more likely.
Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro-The Shape of Water
Could Win: Jordan Peele-Get Out
Should Win: Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: Luca Guadagnino-Call Me by Your Name
Actress
The nominees:
Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie-I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
Meryl Streep-The Post
The narrative for all four acting categories is the same: the same person has won every televised award (critics choice, golden globes, screen actors guild, british academy)--the first time this has ever happened. So pick anyone other than those four winners at your own peril. In this category, that means McDormand takes the cake. It's a shame--this category looked to be so competitive at the beginning of the season, and it certainly should have stayed that way, but everything just stagnated.
Will Win: Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: Florence Pugh-Lady Macbeth
Actor
The nominees:
Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya-Get Out
Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington-Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Oldman's the one to beat here. I wish Chalamet could upset (as seemed much more likely in December), but he'll have to content himself with being the youngest best actor nominee since the 30s.
Will Win: Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
Could Win: Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name
Should Win: Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name*
Should Have Been Here: James McAvoy-Split
*I haven't seen Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Mary J. Blige-Mudbound
Allison Janney-I, Tonya
Lesley Manville-Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer-The Shape of Water
Janney's in the pole position, with Metcalf snapping at her heels and Manville hoping to sneak between the two.
Will Win: Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird (look, Janney's going to win, but I just can't predict those top four, and this category feels like the likeliest place for an upset)
Could Win: Allison Janney-I, Tonya
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: Tiffany Haddish-Girls Trip
Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins-The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer-All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Another snoozefest--Rockwell wins.
Will Win: Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Should Win: Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Should Have Been Here: Armie Hammer-Call Me by Your Name
Original Screenplay
The nominees:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
One of the closest races of the year, and one to keep an eye on for clues to best picture. Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards have been locked at the top for months, and each could conceivably walk away with it. Slight advantage goes to either Get Out (if they want to reward the movie somewhere, this is the easiest place to do it) or Three Billboards (a very verbose, flashy script, plus best picture heat).
Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
This should be an easy call--Call Me is the only best picture nominee, has been universally praised for its script, and was written by James Ivory, a monumentally important director of the 80s and 90s who 89 and as-of-yet Oscarless. Still, part of me worries whether Call Me is too divisive or off-putting to straight voters, leaving a hole for Mudbound's fans to slip through. Still, Call Me is definitely the odds-on frontrunner.
Will Win: Call Me by Your Name
Could Win: Mudbound
Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Here: Lady Macbeth
Production Design
The nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Tight race between Blade Runner and Water, with the latter probably pulling in more votes due to its beloved/BP nominee status. As long as those Beauty and the Beast hate crime visuals don't win, I'll be happy.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Here: War for the Planet of the Apes
Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
Phantom Thread seems like the easy call--a movie about fashion in which the costumes are front and center--but if Shape of Water is going to sweep, look for this category to be an early indication. And there's always the chance that voters lose their minds and go for Beauty and the Beast, just to spite me.
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Phantom Thread*
Should Have Been Here: Blade Runner 2049
*I haven't seen Victoria and Abdul
Visual Effects
The nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
The poor Apes franchise is always a bridesmaid and never an Oscar winner, and this might be the year they can rectify that, but I'd imagine that love for Blade Runner's eye-popping visuals will carry the day.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Here: Thor: Ragnarok
Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder
Darkest Hour wins, no contest.
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Could Win: Wonder
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Darkest Hour)
Film Editing
The nominees:
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Conventional wisdom that suggests that this category is a place for the eventual best picture winner gets thrown out the window today as Water and Billboards take the back seat. Will voters warm more to the fractured timelines and war action of Dunkirk or the impeccably choreographed mayhem of Baby Driver? Tough question. Smart money's probably on Dunkirk, but...
Will Win: Baby Driver
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Baby Driver
Should Have Been Here: Lady Bird
Cinematography
The nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Roger Deakins, arguably the greatest living cinematographer, has been nominated 14 times for an Oscar without a win, and this year's work on Blade Runner seems like his best chance in a looooong time to finally take home a little gold man. Still, both Dunkirk and Shape of Water feature arresting visuals in more widely loved movies, so he's definitely not safe.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Here: All These Sleepless Nights
Original Score
The nominees:
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I'd love to see Johnny Greenwood/Phantom Thread come out on top, but it'll probably Hollywood composer royalty Alexandre Desplat for The Shape of Water. If Water loses here, look for it to lose just about everywhere else too.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Phantom Thread
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Should Have Been Here: Wonderstruck
Sound Mixing
The nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
This is a to-the-wire race between Baby Driver and Dunkirk, with Shape of Water as a possible dark horse if the movie begins to steamroll.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Baby Driver
Should Have Been Here: mother!
Sound Editing
The nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Same nominees, same argument.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Should Have Been Here: mother!
Original Song
The nominees:
"Mighty River"-Mudbound
"Mystery of Love"-Call Me by Your Name
"Remember Me"-Coco
"Stand Up for Something"-Marshall
"This is Me"-The Greatest Showman
Dead heat between Coco/former winners for Frozen and The Greatest Showman/former winners for La La Land. Could Mudbound or Call Me capitalize on the close race/their respective status as major nominees in other categories and pull of an upset? Probably not, but who knows?
Will Win: "This is Me"-The Greatest Showman
Could Win: "Remember Me"-Coco
Should Win: "Mystery of Love"-Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Here: "Visions of Gideon"-Call Me by Your Name
Animated Film
The nominees:
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Coco wins, in the easiest call of the night.
Will Win: Coco
Could Win: Loving Vincent
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Coco and The Boss Baby)
Foreign Language Film
The nominees:
A Fantastic Woman-Chile
The Insult-Lebanon
Loveless-Russia
On Body and Soul-Hungary
The Square-Sweden
Impossible to say--this seems like a legit five-way race. Loveless is arguably the biggest and most significant, The Square was the odds-on frontrunner at the beginning of the season, The Insult seems like the kind of big, emotionally open traditional winner, On Body and Soul is one of the most unique, and A Fantastic Woman hit at just the right time and captured the zeitgeist. So throw a dart or something.
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Could Win: The Square
Should Win: Abstain (haven't seen any of these, sadly)
Documentary Feature
The nominees:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Also tough to call. Last Men and Strong Island are emotionally resonant, Icarus is timely (it's about the Russian Olympic doping scandal), and Faces Places was made by French New Wave legend Agnes Varda, who's never won a competitive Oscar.
Will Win: Icarus
Could Win: Faces Places
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Last Men in Aleppo)
So that's that. By my predictions, The Shape of Water wins the most of the night (Director, Production Design, Original Score), but Get Out squeaks through to be the smallest best picture winner in 80 years. I'm probably wrong, right? We'll find out tonight!
Aaaaaand here's an extra bonus post! Note--feel free to check out here. I thought about doing this as a separate post, but decided to minimize the number of times I assault your facebook feed. As a nice summary of the year, and as a reminder that, despite my preocuppation with them, The Oscars aren't the be-all end-all of the cinematic year, underneath you'll find my anti-Oscar ballot. The only rule: I can't nominate anything that was nominated for an Oscar. What you'll find is that the cinematic talent displayed this year runs deep, and even if the Academy made some good choices, there is still a massive pool of accomplished artists who didn't aren't getting the attention they deserve.
So here we go! No commentary, no rankings--just alphabetical nominees, with winners in bold.
The Anti-Oscars
Best Picture
BPM
Casting JonBenet
The Florida Project
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Lady Macbeth
mother!
Nocturama
Raw
The Work
Director
Darren Aronofsky-mother!
Luca Guadagnino-Call Me by Your Name
Yorgos Lanthimos-The Killing of a Sacred Deer
William Oldroyd-Lady Macbeth
Denis Villeneuve-Blade Runner 2049
Actress
Gal Gadot-Wonder Woman
Vicky Krieps-Phantom Thread
Florence Pugh-Lady Macbeth
Kristen Stewart-Personal Shopper
Michelle Williams-All the Money in the World
Actor
James McAvoy-Split
Robert Pattinson-Good Time
Nahuel Perez Biscayart-BPM
Jeremy Renner-Wind River
Arnoid Valois-BPM
Supporting Actress
Naomie Ackie-Lady Macbeth
Betty Gabriel-Get Out
Tiffany Haddish-Girls Trip
Bria Vinaite-The Florida Project
Allison Williams-Get Out
Supporting Actor
Armie Hammer-Call Me by Your Name
Barry Keoghan-The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Sebastian Stan-I, Tonya
Patrick Stewart-Logan
Michael Stuhlbarg-Call Me by Your Name
Original Screenplay
BPM
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Nocturama
Personal Shopper
Phantom Thread
Adapted Screenplay
Blade Runner 2049
Lady Macbeth
The Lost City of Z
Thor: Ragnarok
Wonder Woman
Production Design
Atomic Blonde
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
mother!
Thor: Ragnarok
War for the Planet of the Apes
Costume Design
Atomic Blonde
The Beguiled
Blade Runner 2049
Lady Macbeth
Wonder Woman
Visual Effects
Alien: Covenant
Dunkirk
Okja
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Thor: Ragnarok
Makeup
Atomic Blonde
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Raw
Film Editing
Get Out
Good Time
Lady Bird
Logan Lucky
Nocturama
Cinematography
All These Sleepless Nights
The Beguiled
Call Me by Your Name
Lady Macbeth
The Wound
Original Score
Darkest Hour
Good Time
Logan
Mudbound
Wonderstruck
Sound Mixing
Atomic Blonde
The Florida Project
The Lost City of Z
mother!
NocturamaSound Editing
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
mother!
Phantom Thread
Raw
Thor: Ragnarok
Original Song
"The Greatest Show"-The Greatest Showman
"Never Enough"-The Greatest Showman
"Proud Corazon"-Coco
"Re-Write the Stars"-The Greatest Showman
"Visions of Gideon"-Call Me by Your Name
(...so I liked The Greatest Showman. Dealwithit.)
Saturday, March 3, 2018
Best of 2017, part 3: Acting/Directing/Screenplays
I know, I know, I am absolutely bombarding you with blog posts in the past two days, but I'm desperately thrashing around like a particularly verbose and dying fish, doing my best to get a little bit of cinematic closure before the Oscars tonight--and you all are my hapless victims. But hey, if you're still clicking on these, then the help you need is beyond my power to give. Think about what you're doing.
Funny thing about my relationship with writing about movies: I can write 1,000 words on why the red hotel room in Atomic Blonde is absolutely essential if we are to continue as a species, but if I'm pressed to write about the 'big' categories, i.e. acting, writing, directing, it feels like pulling teeth (not necessarily my own) trying to get myself to write anything more lucid than 'hey, wow, Meryl Streep's not bad, right? Did you see that thing she did with her face? It made water (but only part of it)! Amazing!' And unfortunately for all of us, all I've got left to write about this year (at least as far as big lists are concerned) are the very categories that I've no idea how to address.
So here's the deal: I played around with this post for hours, and just couldn't come up with a compelling way to really present it--I felt fairly list-drained, believe it or not, and didn't want to inflict sub-par work on all of you. So instead, I've decided to just rattle off my top five and provide some basic commentary for the category as a whole. This makes for a streamlined reading experience for you, and didn't require me to spend my next five hours racking my brain trying to come up with a longer (but still readable) version. If you're curious for more in-depth thoughts about anything you see here, don't hesitate to ask!
Best Actress
5. Margot Robbie-I, Tonya
4. Meryl Streep-The Post
3. Vicky Krieps-Phantom Thread
2. Florence Pugh-Lady Macbeth
1. Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
Honorable mention: Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
A whole flotilla of great work--Margot Robbie convinced me that her opinion of her (charismatic but relatively talentless) was horribly wrong, Meryl Streep gave her best performance in a decade, and Krieps and Pugh gave titanic performances that should catapult them both to the stratosphere. But my love for Lady Bird is well-documented, and I couldn't resist Ronan's climbing narrative as the best young working actress.
Actor
5. Jeremy Renner-Wind River
4. Daniel Kaluuya-Split
3. James McAvoy-Split
2. Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread
1. Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name
Honorable mention: Robert Pattinson-Good Time
Lots to note here--genre emphasis (two horror roles, one villain and one victim, and a western), and Daniel Day-Lewis' alleged last performance--but there's really only room for Chalamet's massive and unavoidable coming out as a huge talent and future star. The sky's the limit for the kid, and I hope his career from here is as big as his obvious talent deserves.
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
5. Sebastian Stan-I, Tonya
4. Barry Keoghan-The Killing of a Sacred Deer
3. Michael Stuhlbarg-Call Me by Your Name
2. Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
1. Armie Hammer-Call Me by Your Name
Honorable mention: Patrick Stewart-Logan
The big story is of course the tragically oscar-less Call Me boys (seriously, how did the Academy sleep on this?), but that shouldn't overshadow a career re-defining performance from Sebastian Stan, or the utter weirdness that Keoghan brings to his balefully sociopathic teenager in The Killing of a Sacred Deer.
Director
5. Paul Thomas Anderson-Phantom Thread
4. William Oldroyd-Lady Macbeth
3. Darren Aronofsky-mother!
Honorable mention: Yorgos Lanthimos-The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Another stellar category, and I had one hell of a time picking a winner--I played with having every one of these five take the cake. It was awfully tempting to reward Aronofsky's gleeful and unswerving 'my way' approach to mother!, but ultimately I had to go with one of the helmers of what I called two of the best movies of the decade on Friday, with Gerwig inching Guadagnino out by a hair. I could give it to Guadagnino for his visual panache or his obvious talent with actors, but I decided to side with Gerwig's sharp eye and world-sized heart.
Original Screenplay
5. Phantom Thread
4. Nocturama
3. The Killing of a Sacred Deer
2. Get Out
1. Lady Bird
Honorable mention: BPM (120 Beats per Minute)
In another year, any of these five could have taken the top spot-Phantom Thread's wild sense of humor, Nocturama's terse politics, Killing's jaw-dropping bizarreness, or *especially* Get Out's adept handling of ten different genres and tones. But I figure I've praised Lady Bird enough in the past few days for you to get where this was going.
Adapted Screenplay
5. Thor: Ragnarok
4. The Lost City of Z
3. Logan
2. Lady Macbeth
1. Call Me by Your Name
Honorable mention: Blade Runner 2049
A weirdly franchise/tent-pole heavy category, but they earned it--we'll all be quoting Thor for the next five years, and Logan ripped its genre apart and built it up again from scratch (sidebar: have I mentioned that Logan getting nominated for its screenplay is arguably my favorite Oscar nomination this year? At least in the sense of improbable but totally deserving). But, like with Lady Bird, I've gotten all weepy with praise over Call Me by Your Name lately that all of you already knew how this would turn out.
And believe it or not (and I've a sneaking suspicion you'll believe it), that's a wrap on big list posts for the year. Sometime today or tomorrow I'll bang out some last minute Oscar predictions, but this is where we start to say goodbye to 2017 as a cinematic year (he says, fully aware that it's March, and everyone else stopped thinking about these movies months ago).
For those playing along at home, here are the movies that showed up most frequently in these lists:
Call Me by Your Name-9
Phantom Thread-8
Lady Macbeth-7
Get Out-7
Lady Birth-6
mother!-5
Nocturama-5
Blade Runner 2049-5
As for the most wins, it was a duel to the death between Call Me and Lady Bird (much like plenty of these lists), with Call Me emerging victorious in the end. On the craft end, Phantom Thread, Blade Runner 2049, and Baby Driver hogged more than their share of the spotlight.
Call Me by Your Name-Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Song
Lady Bird-Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay
Blade Runner 2049-Production Design, Visual Effects, Cinematography
Phantom Thread-Costume Design, Original Score
Baby Driver-Film Editing, Sound Mixing
And there's another year gone! Looking forward to see what the next 9 months brings to the movies.
Funny thing about my relationship with writing about movies: I can write 1,000 words on why the red hotel room in Atomic Blonde is absolutely essential if we are to continue as a species, but if I'm pressed to write about the 'big' categories, i.e. acting, writing, directing, it feels like pulling teeth (not necessarily my own) trying to get myself to write anything more lucid than 'hey, wow, Meryl Streep's not bad, right? Did you see that thing she did with her face? It made water (but only part of it)! Amazing!' And unfortunately for all of us, all I've got left to write about this year (at least as far as big lists are concerned) are the very categories that I've no idea how to address.
So here's the deal: I played around with this post for hours, and just couldn't come up with a compelling way to really present it--I felt fairly list-drained, believe it or not, and didn't want to inflict sub-par work on all of you. So instead, I've decided to just rattle off my top five and provide some basic commentary for the category as a whole. This makes for a streamlined reading experience for you, and didn't require me to spend my next five hours racking my brain trying to come up with a longer (but still readable) version. If you're curious for more in-depth thoughts about anything you see here, don't hesitate to ask!
Best Actress
5. Margot Robbie-I, Tonya
4. Meryl Streep-The Post
3. Vicky Krieps-Phantom Thread
2. Florence Pugh-Lady Macbeth
1. Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
Honorable mention: Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
A whole flotilla of great work--Margot Robbie convinced me that her opinion of her (charismatic but relatively talentless) was horribly wrong, Meryl Streep gave her best performance in a decade, and Krieps and Pugh gave titanic performances that should catapult them both to the stratosphere. But my love for Lady Bird is well-documented, and I couldn't resist Ronan's climbing narrative as the best young working actress.
Actor
5. Jeremy Renner-Wind River
4. Daniel Kaluuya-Split
3. James McAvoy-Split
2. Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread
1. Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name
Honorable mention: Robert Pattinson-Good Time
Lots to note here--genre emphasis (two horror roles, one villain and one victim, and a western), and Daniel Day-Lewis' alleged last performance--but there's really only room for Chalamet's massive and unavoidable coming out as a huge talent and future star. The sky's the limit for the kid, and I hope his career from here is as big as his obvious talent deserves.
Supporting Actress
5. Naomie Ackie-Lady Macbeth
4. Allison Williams-Get Out
3. Betty Gabriel-Get Out
2. Tiffany Haddisch-Girls Trip
1. Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
Big shout-out here to the unsung Get Out girls, without whom the movie couldn't function--imagine it without Allison Williams' perfectly calculated periods of warmth and coldness, or the way Betty Gabriel reinvented the word 'no.' And what kind of year would it be without Tiffany Haddish's mischievously cocked eyebrow right before she explains where she keeps her drugs? This is a great category (maybe the best of the acting categories?), but someone had to come out on top, and Metcalf created one of the most fully realized and tetchily human movie mothers ever, so here we are.
Supporting Actor
5. Sebastian Stan-I, Tonya
4. Barry Keoghan-The Killing of a Sacred Deer
3. Michael Stuhlbarg-Call Me by Your Name
2. Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
1. Armie Hammer-Call Me by Your Name
Honorable mention: Patrick Stewart-Logan
The big story is of course the tragically oscar-less Call Me boys (seriously, how did the Academy sleep on this?), but that shouldn't overshadow a career re-defining performance from Sebastian Stan, or the utter weirdness that Keoghan brings to his balefully sociopathic teenager in The Killing of a Sacred Deer.
Director
5. Paul Thomas Anderson-Phantom Thread
4. William Oldroyd-Lady Macbeth
3. Darren Aronofsky-mother!
2. Luca Guadagnino-Call Me by Your Name
1. Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Honorable mention: Yorgos Lanthimos-The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Another stellar category, and I had one hell of a time picking a winner--I played with having every one of these five take the cake. It was awfully tempting to reward Aronofsky's gleeful and unswerving 'my way' approach to mother!, but ultimately I had to go with one of the helmers of what I called two of the best movies of the decade on Friday, with Gerwig inching Guadagnino out by a hair. I could give it to Guadagnino for his visual panache or his obvious talent with actors, but I decided to side with Gerwig's sharp eye and world-sized heart.
Original Screenplay
5. Phantom Thread
4. Nocturama
3. The Killing of a Sacred Deer
2. Get Out
1. Lady Bird
Honorable mention: BPM (120 Beats per Minute)
In another year, any of these five could have taken the top spot-Phantom Thread's wild sense of humor, Nocturama's terse politics, Killing's jaw-dropping bizarreness, or *especially* Get Out's adept handling of ten different genres and tones. But I figure I've praised Lady Bird enough in the past few days for you to get where this was going.
Adapted Screenplay
5. Thor: Ragnarok
4. The Lost City of Z
3. Logan
2. Lady Macbeth
1. Call Me by Your Name
Honorable mention: Blade Runner 2049
A weirdly franchise/tent-pole heavy category, but they earned it--we'll all be quoting Thor for the next five years, and Logan ripped its genre apart and built it up again from scratch (sidebar: have I mentioned that Logan getting nominated for its screenplay is arguably my favorite Oscar nomination this year? At least in the sense of improbable but totally deserving). But, like with Lady Bird, I've gotten all weepy with praise over Call Me by Your Name lately that all of you already knew how this would turn out.
And believe it or not (and I've a sneaking suspicion you'll believe it), that's a wrap on big list posts for the year. Sometime today or tomorrow I'll bang out some last minute Oscar predictions, but this is where we start to say goodbye to 2017 as a cinematic year (he says, fully aware that it's March, and everyone else stopped thinking about these movies months ago).
For those playing along at home, here are the movies that showed up most frequently in these lists:
Call Me by Your Name-9
Phantom Thread-8
Lady Macbeth-7
Get Out-7
Lady Birth-6
mother!-5
Nocturama-5
Blade Runner 2049-5
As for the most wins, it was a duel to the death between Call Me and Lady Bird (much like plenty of these lists), with Call Me emerging victorious in the end. On the craft end, Phantom Thread, Blade Runner 2049, and Baby Driver hogged more than their share of the spotlight.
Call Me by Your Name-Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Song
Lady Bird-Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay
Blade Runner 2049-Production Design, Visual Effects, Cinematography
Phantom Thread-Costume Design, Original Score
Baby Driver-Film Editing, Sound Mixing
And there's another year gone! Looking forward to see what the next 9 months brings to the movies.
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