Ok, I'm just gonna preface this by saying that this year is wacky as all get-out. It's been a great year for movies, and whenever a ton of different films are loved, it makes predicting crazy difficult. But right off the bat I need to commend the academy for not going with the most boring choices across the board. Sure, they certainly made a couple snooze-y picks, but I feel like that's been overshadowed by what they did right. So, without further ado:
(I'm gonna put an asterisk next to the ones I predicted right, so y'all can see how I did.)
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
Oscar Predictions, Part 4: Final Predictions
Ok, last time. In less than 12 hours, the Academy will be announcing their nominations, which means in less than 12 hours all this guesswork will have been totally silly and useless. Yay! That's the way I like it. So here's the deal: I'm just going to offer up my final predictions in order of likelihood, sans commentary. Since posting my predictions I've changed a few things: I did indeed take Beasts of the Southern Wild out of Best Picture (turns out I didn't predict it for any other category, and no way it's only nomination is the big one), changed my Best Director alternate to Michael Haneke for Amour, moved Rachel Weisz into my top 5 for Best Actress, changed Visual Effects to include Snow White and the Huntsman, and got rid of The Avengers in Sound Mixing in favor of Lincoln. I know, lots of changes. It's a really tough year for predictions.
Note: I know that I haven't really committed any opinions on what I actually think deserves to be nominated, but I'll be putting up my 'best of 2012" list sometime in February. It's just too hard for someone who doesn't live in New York or LA to catch up with all of the movies worth seeing in time to make a timely year-end list. But know that if I could guarantee any nomination tomorrow, it would be Beasts of the Southern Wild for, well, anything, and if I could prevent any nomination, it would be Tom Hooper's director nod for Les Mis (though if that movie gets nominated for Cinematography I'll jump off a bridge, Javert-style).
See them all after the jump...
Note: I know that I haven't really committed any opinions on what I actually think deserves to be nominated, but I'll be putting up my 'best of 2012" list sometime in February. It's just too hard for someone who doesn't live in New York or LA to catch up with all of the movies worth seeing in time to make a timely year-end list. But know that if I could guarantee any nomination tomorrow, it would be Beasts of the Southern Wild for, well, anything, and if I could prevent any nomination, it would be Tom Hooper's director nod for Les Mis (though if that movie gets nominated for Cinematography I'll jump off a bridge, Javert-style).
See them all after the jump...
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Oscar Predictions, Part 3: Craft Categories
Ok, last big prediction salvo before Oscar's High Holy Day. Today I'll tackle the craft categories. There's ten of them, and the all of them can be fairly wacky to predict and almost impossible to analyze, so I'll probably keep my commentary fairly brief. Let's get started, shall we?
Predictions after the jump (oh man, I know how to make jumps, watch our world)
Predictions after the jump (oh man, I know how to make jumps, watch our world)
Monday, January 7, 2013
Oscar Predictions, Part 2: Acting and Screenplays
I figure that my version of Oscar blogging is just like Chris Evans wearing bright red, knee-high go-go boots: you didn't know you needed it, but once you got it, you couldn't imagine life without it. It's a burden being me. Ok, snark aside (at least some of it), let's jump into the rest of the major categories today.
Best Actor
This category is kind of wacky this year, in that only one contender is a sure thing, and under him we've got five performances brawling like an 80s boxing movie for the remaining four slots. So out with the obvious: Daniel Day-Lewis makes it (and probably wins) for his take on everyone's favorite president in Lincoln (Ed. note: my favorite president is William Henry Harrison, because he's useless and silly, but I digress.). So who's left?
-Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings Playbook: I know, I know. On the one hand, Academy Award Nominee Bradley Cooper? On the other hand, he's surprisingly fantastic and Silver Linings is that rare thing: a critically successful romantic comedy which only works as a duo. Stranger things have happened (see: Academy Award Nominee Eddie Murphy, Academy Award Winner Cher, Academy Award Winner Jamie Foxx, etc., etc.).
-John Hawkes-The Sessions: I'll never understand why people like this film or this performance, but I can't deny it checks just about every Academy-friendly box: Real life person impersonation, inspirational, endearing disability, former nominee, and so forth. He's probably in.
Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables: If Les Mis is a big (or even mediocre) hit with the Academy, then Wolverine might need to find a tux that accommodates both super-human angst and spontaneous rhyme schemes. Never underestimate the Academy's general distaste for emotionally vulnerable singing leads, however. Then again, never underestimate the Academy's love for a performance that wears its heart on its sleeve, and Les Mis has so. many. emotions.
Joaquin Phoenix-The Master: If only. Phoenix is brilliant and raw and totally crazy, and those adjectives only sometimes work for the Academy. He publicly went on record saying that he thinks awards are stupid, so the Academy might just let him sit this one out.
Denzel Washington-Flight: On the one hand, Washington isn't really stretching himself for this one. On the other hand, we so rarely see straightforward adult-oriented dramas in the theaters, the Academy might reward this film just for existing and not being embarrassing.
(While I said there were only 5 other possibilities, I'd be remiss not to mention Jean-Louis Trintignant in Amour, who could very well be a surprise nominee come Thursday.)
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Daniel Day-Lewis: Lincoln
John Hawkes-The Sessions
Denzel Washington-Flight
Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings Playbook
Alternates: Joaquin Phoenix-The Master, Jean-Louis Trintignant-Amour
Best Actress
This category's probably going to kill me. Here's the thing: I feel pretty confident calling four slots. The first two are done deals: Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain are absolutely in for their work in Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty, respectively, and I imagine these two will continue dueling for the win right up to Oscar night. The next two slots aren't quite as set in stone, but I feel confident nonetheless. Though she missed the Screen Actors Guild nomination, I think enough voters will respond to Emmanuelle Riva's work in Amour. Similarly, I think Naomi Watt's determined mom in The Impossible has drawn enough eyes to slide in past other, more hyped candidates. This leaves the last spot, wherein I am truly and utterly screwed. In my head, it's an incredibly tight race between two fantastic performances: Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild and Marion Cotillard in Rust and Bone. Wallis is clearly a star who dominates her film, but the fact that she was six when filming will surely turn off plenty of older voters. Cotillard is also wonderful, but I'm skeptical about the Academy nominating two foreign-language performances in the same category (a feat which hasn't occurred since the 1970s). When the race is this tight, sometimes a surprise, lower-profile nominee can sneak in. If that's the case, watch out for Helen Mirren in Hitchcock (though I don't see that film showing up anywhere), or Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea (which was probably too small a film to make a big impact.)
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts-The Impossible
Emmanuelle Riva-Amour
Marion Cotillard-Rust and Bone
Alternates: Quvenzhane Wallis-Beasts of the Southern Wild, Helen Mirren-Hitchcock
Best Supporting Actor
Like Best Actress, I feel confident in calling four out of five slots here. Again, like Best Actress, the first two possibilities are more set in stone than the second two. First things first: Tommy Lee Jones's work in Lincoln is comfortably situated at the top of the dogpile, while Robert De Niro's role in Silver Linings Playbook sits slightly below. Two other performers--Alan Arkin in Argo and Phillip Seymour Hoffman in The Master--bring up the rear. Though neither nomination is by any means guaranteed, I'd be somewhat surprised to see either fall out. This leaves one slot open, and (as far as I'm concerned) only two options with which to fill it.
Option 1: A Django boy. Tarantino's latest has plenty of awards-grabbing performances that have been making a mad dash toward the Oscar finish line. Though I'd absolutely love to see Samuel L. Jackson make it in for his blackface-inspired grotesquerie, he's not too likely. Dueling banjos Christoph Waltz and Leonardo Dicaprio, however, both stand a very solid chance at a nod. I'd say Waltz has a slight edge, in that his role is bigger (which is important), and his character is likable (which is very important). Note: while I admit that it's possible that two of these men make it into the category, I wouldn't bet on it.
Option 2: Wackiness ensues and Skyfall lands an acting nomination. Though it's never happened for a James Bond movie, Javier Bardem's poorly haired aesthete with breathtaking mommy issues gives the franchise its best chance in 50 years to break into a major race. I could very easily see this happening, and I almost feel a bit foolish for not predicting it, but I'm just not ready to believe that the Academy loves James Bond the way the Internet does.
Outside of these options, I don't see anything else happening. Had you asked me in the beginning of December, I'd have told you that Matthew McConaughey had a shot for his nutty work in Magic Mike, but now that seems like a fever dream that's far-fetched, at best. Dittyo Eddie Redmayne in Les Miserables, who could surprise, but probably won't.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln
Robert De Niro-Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin-Argo
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master
Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained
Alternates: Javier Bardem-Skyfall, Leonardo Dicaprio-Django Unchained
Supporting Actress
Alright, three things we know for sure: Anne Hathaway in Les Mis, Sally Field in Lincoln, and Helen Hunt in The Sessions are all looking gold. Past that? As I see it, there are two easy choices fighting two difficult choices. The easy choices: Amy Adams in The Master and Maggie Smith in The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. While it's admittedly somewhat disingenuous to call Amy Adams' Lady MacBeth-esque handjob-dispenser an 'easy choice,' she's still a supportive wife (super popular here) in a critically regarded prestige pic from a well-known director, which all count in her favor. Maggie Smith, on the other hand, is the epitome of voting for someone you like, regardless of role or quality. If she gets in, it's because Academy voters are annoyed that they don't get to vote for Downton Abbey. The difficult choices: Anne Dowd in Compliance and Nicole Kidman in The Paperboy. Dowd may be fantastic in her role, but she's in a tiny indie with no budget, and is financing her own Oscar campaign--no cheap feat. Kidman, on the other hand, is delirious trash incarnate in a giddily sleazy film which certainly won't play well to older voters. Still, the wacky brilliance of her work shouldn't be ignored. All that being said, I just can't bring myself to predict either of the difficult choices. Easy work carries the day this year.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Anne Hathaway-Les Miserables
Sally Field-Lincoln
Helen Hunt-The Sessions
Amy Adams-The Master
Maggie Smith-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Alternates: Nicole Kidman-The Paperboy, Anne Dowd-Compliance
That's it for acting. Next, we've got the categories I intend to fail at during the course of my professional career: screenplays!
Best Original Screenplay
Like Best Actor, what this category has is a bad case of 6 competitors for 5 positions. Of those six, only Zero Dark Thirty and Moonrise Kingdom are safe. Then we've got Best Picture hopefuls Django Unchained and Amour. Tarantino's film is a very obviously *written,* in that even casual film-goers will notice the script pyrotechnics exploding all around them. This might guarantee its spot, but then again, Kill Bill and Jackie Brown had the same thing going for them, yet failed to land. Amour could also miss securing a berth, if only because it's a little-seen foreign film. Still, if any branch of the Academy is adventurous, it's the Writers' Branch, which may just give Amour a leg up. Speaking of adventurous brings us to the two (assumed) non-Picture nominee possibilities: The Master and Looper. The Master is hardly the year's most well-received film; it's awfully divisive, but might have a large enough passionate fanbase to slide in. Looper, on the other hand, is the kind of film which I figured would have no shot at major category consideration, but this little sci-fi thriller keeps showing up at precursor award after precursor award. Apparently voting bodies just love Looper's screenplay. Really, I see these six as the only feasible options, but I suppose films like Flight, The Intouchables, Magic Mike, and Middle of Nowhere might still manage a nomination in this traditionally surprising category.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Zero Dark Thirty
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Amour
The Master
Alternates: Looper, Flight
Best Adapted Screenplay
Here's a tougher category, which is often stacked to the top with Best Picture heavyweight hopefuls. On that score, check out Lincoln, Argo, and Silver Linings Playbook, which will all find a place here. For the final two spots, it's a battle royale between easy-choice Best Picture hopefuls and the scrappy Davids to their Goliath. On the Goliath front: Life of Pi and The Sessions. I'm not sure how to feel about Pi's chances here: almost every review/comment I've read or heard about this film find room to complain about the film's script/framing device, which many feel as unwieldy and subtle as a bag of hammers. That being said, the degree of difficulty required to bring Yann Martel's allegedly unfilmable novel to the screen must count for something. The Sessions, a film for which I harbor no particular love, could slide in here, but might be perceived as overly reliant on voice-over narration, or more of an actors' piece than a writing achievement. On the little-engine-that-could side of things, we've got Beasts of the Southern Wild and The Perks of Being A Wallflower: both fantastic films, both very deserving, and both perhaps too small to make an impression. Perks might have the edge here: it's shown up repeatedly at precursor awards, and earns cool points for being adapted for the screen by the author of the book. Plus, it's talkier than Beasts, which this branch will respond to. These are your seven real possibilities. I suppose arguments could be made for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Les Mis, but I don't think Best Exotic will be embraced to this extent, nor do I think the writers will ever nominate a screenplay which is composed entirely of songs.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Alternates: Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Sessions
Well, that's it for today (again). Come back tomorrow as I wrap up all the craft categories! Anything you're hoping for?
Best Actor
This category is kind of wacky this year, in that only one contender is a sure thing, and under him we've got five performances brawling like an 80s boxing movie for the remaining four slots. So out with the obvious: Daniel Day-Lewis makes it (and probably wins) for his take on everyone's favorite president in Lincoln (Ed. note: my favorite president is William Henry Harrison, because he's useless and silly, but I digress.). So who's left?
-Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings Playbook: I know, I know. On the one hand, Academy Award Nominee Bradley Cooper? On the other hand, he's surprisingly fantastic and Silver Linings is that rare thing: a critically successful romantic comedy which only works as a duo. Stranger things have happened (see: Academy Award Nominee Eddie Murphy, Academy Award Winner Cher, Academy Award Winner Jamie Foxx, etc., etc.).
-John Hawkes-The Sessions: I'll never understand why people like this film or this performance, but I can't deny it checks just about every Academy-friendly box: Real life person impersonation, inspirational, endearing disability, former nominee, and so forth. He's probably in.
Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables: If Les Mis is a big (or even mediocre) hit with the Academy, then Wolverine might need to find a tux that accommodates both super-human angst and spontaneous rhyme schemes. Never underestimate the Academy's general distaste for emotionally vulnerable singing leads, however. Then again, never underestimate the Academy's love for a performance that wears its heart on its sleeve, and Les Mis has so. many. emotions.
Joaquin Phoenix-The Master: If only. Phoenix is brilliant and raw and totally crazy, and those adjectives only sometimes work for the Academy. He publicly went on record saying that he thinks awards are stupid, so the Academy might just let him sit this one out.
Denzel Washington-Flight: On the one hand, Washington isn't really stretching himself for this one. On the other hand, we so rarely see straightforward adult-oriented dramas in the theaters, the Academy might reward this film just for existing and not being embarrassing.
(While I said there were only 5 other possibilities, I'd be remiss not to mention Jean-Louis Trintignant in Amour, who could very well be a surprise nominee come Thursday.)
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Daniel Day-Lewis: Lincoln
John Hawkes-The Sessions
Denzel Washington-Flight
Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings Playbook
Alternates: Joaquin Phoenix-The Master, Jean-Louis Trintignant-Amour
Best Actress
This category's probably going to kill me. Here's the thing: I feel pretty confident calling four slots. The first two are done deals: Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain are absolutely in for their work in Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty, respectively, and I imagine these two will continue dueling for the win right up to Oscar night. The next two slots aren't quite as set in stone, but I feel confident nonetheless. Though she missed the Screen Actors Guild nomination, I think enough voters will respond to Emmanuelle Riva's work in Amour. Similarly, I think Naomi Watt's determined mom in The Impossible has drawn enough eyes to slide in past other, more hyped candidates. This leaves the last spot, wherein I am truly and utterly screwed. In my head, it's an incredibly tight race between two fantastic performances: Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild and Marion Cotillard in Rust and Bone. Wallis is clearly a star who dominates her film, but the fact that she was six when filming will surely turn off plenty of older voters. Cotillard is also wonderful, but I'm skeptical about the Academy nominating two foreign-language performances in the same category (a feat which hasn't occurred since the 1970s). When the race is this tight, sometimes a surprise, lower-profile nominee can sneak in. If that's the case, watch out for Helen Mirren in Hitchcock (though I don't see that film showing up anywhere), or Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea (which was probably too small a film to make a big impact.)
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts-The Impossible
Emmanuelle Riva-Amour
Marion Cotillard-Rust and Bone
Alternates: Quvenzhane Wallis-Beasts of the Southern Wild, Helen Mirren-Hitchcock
Best Supporting Actor
Like Best Actress, I feel confident in calling four out of five slots here. Again, like Best Actress, the first two possibilities are more set in stone than the second two. First things first: Tommy Lee Jones's work in Lincoln is comfortably situated at the top of the dogpile, while Robert De Niro's role in Silver Linings Playbook sits slightly below. Two other performers--Alan Arkin in Argo and Phillip Seymour Hoffman in The Master--bring up the rear. Though neither nomination is by any means guaranteed, I'd be somewhat surprised to see either fall out. This leaves one slot open, and (as far as I'm concerned) only two options with which to fill it.
Option 1: A Django boy. Tarantino's latest has plenty of awards-grabbing performances that have been making a mad dash toward the Oscar finish line. Though I'd absolutely love to see Samuel L. Jackson make it in for his blackface-inspired grotesquerie, he's not too likely. Dueling banjos Christoph Waltz and Leonardo Dicaprio, however, both stand a very solid chance at a nod. I'd say Waltz has a slight edge, in that his role is bigger (which is important), and his character is likable (which is very important). Note: while I admit that it's possible that two of these men make it into the category, I wouldn't bet on it.
Option 2: Wackiness ensues and Skyfall lands an acting nomination. Though it's never happened for a James Bond movie, Javier Bardem's poorly haired aesthete with breathtaking mommy issues gives the franchise its best chance in 50 years to break into a major race. I could very easily see this happening, and I almost feel a bit foolish for not predicting it, but I'm just not ready to believe that the Academy loves James Bond the way the Internet does.
Outside of these options, I don't see anything else happening. Had you asked me in the beginning of December, I'd have told you that Matthew McConaughey had a shot for his nutty work in Magic Mike, but now that seems like a fever dream that's far-fetched, at best. Dittyo Eddie Redmayne in Les Miserables, who could surprise, but probably won't.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln
Robert De Niro-Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin-Argo
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master
Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained
Alternates: Javier Bardem-Skyfall, Leonardo Dicaprio-Django Unchained
Supporting Actress
Alright, three things we know for sure: Anne Hathaway in Les Mis, Sally Field in Lincoln, and Helen Hunt in The Sessions are all looking gold. Past that? As I see it, there are two easy choices fighting two difficult choices. The easy choices: Amy Adams in The Master and Maggie Smith in The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. While it's admittedly somewhat disingenuous to call Amy Adams' Lady MacBeth-esque handjob-dispenser an 'easy choice,' she's still a supportive wife (super popular here) in a critically regarded prestige pic from a well-known director, which all count in her favor. Maggie Smith, on the other hand, is the epitome of voting for someone you like, regardless of role or quality. If she gets in, it's because Academy voters are annoyed that they don't get to vote for Downton Abbey. The difficult choices: Anne Dowd in Compliance and Nicole Kidman in The Paperboy. Dowd may be fantastic in her role, but she's in a tiny indie with no budget, and is financing her own Oscar campaign--no cheap feat. Kidman, on the other hand, is delirious trash incarnate in a giddily sleazy film which certainly won't play well to older voters. Still, the wacky brilliance of her work shouldn't be ignored. All that being said, I just can't bring myself to predict either of the difficult choices. Easy work carries the day this year.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Anne Hathaway-Les Miserables
Sally Field-Lincoln
Helen Hunt-The Sessions
Amy Adams-The Master
Maggie Smith-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Alternates: Nicole Kidman-The Paperboy, Anne Dowd-Compliance
That's it for acting. Next, we've got the categories I intend to fail at during the course of my professional career: screenplays!
Best Original Screenplay
Like Best Actor, what this category has is a bad case of 6 competitors for 5 positions. Of those six, only Zero Dark Thirty and Moonrise Kingdom are safe. Then we've got Best Picture hopefuls Django Unchained and Amour. Tarantino's film is a very obviously *written,* in that even casual film-goers will notice the script pyrotechnics exploding all around them. This might guarantee its spot, but then again, Kill Bill and Jackie Brown had the same thing going for them, yet failed to land. Amour could also miss securing a berth, if only because it's a little-seen foreign film. Still, if any branch of the Academy is adventurous, it's the Writers' Branch, which may just give Amour a leg up. Speaking of adventurous brings us to the two (assumed) non-Picture nominee possibilities: The Master and Looper. The Master is hardly the year's most well-received film; it's awfully divisive, but might have a large enough passionate fanbase to slide in. Looper, on the other hand, is the kind of film which I figured would have no shot at major category consideration, but this little sci-fi thriller keeps showing up at precursor award after precursor award. Apparently voting bodies just love Looper's screenplay. Really, I see these six as the only feasible options, but I suppose films like Flight, The Intouchables, Magic Mike, and Middle of Nowhere might still manage a nomination in this traditionally surprising category.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Zero Dark Thirty
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Amour
The Master
Alternates: Looper, Flight
Best Adapted Screenplay
Here's a tougher category, which is often stacked to the top with Best Picture heavyweight hopefuls. On that score, check out Lincoln, Argo, and Silver Linings Playbook, which will all find a place here. For the final two spots, it's a battle royale between easy-choice Best Picture hopefuls and the scrappy Davids to their Goliath. On the Goliath front: Life of Pi and The Sessions. I'm not sure how to feel about Pi's chances here: almost every review/comment I've read or heard about this film find room to complain about the film's script/framing device, which many feel as unwieldy and subtle as a bag of hammers. That being said, the degree of difficulty required to bring Yann Martel's allegedly unfilmable novel to the screen must count for something. The Sessions, a film for which I harbor no particular love, could slide in here, but might be perceived as overly reliant on voice-over narration, or more of an actors' piece than a writing achievement. On the little-engine-that-could side of things, we've got Beasts of the Southern Wild and The Perks of Being A Wallflower: both fantastic films, both very deserving, and both perhaps too small to make an impression. Perks might have the edge here: it's shown up repeatedly at precursor awards, and earns cool points for being adapted for the screen by the author of the book. Plus, it's talkier than Beasts, which this branch will respond to. These are your seven real possibilities. I suppose arguments could be made for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Les Mis, but I don't think Best Exotic will be embraced to this extent, nor do I think the writers will ever nominate a screenplay which is composed entirely of songs.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Alternates: Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Sessions
Well, that's it for today (again). Come back tomorrow as I wrap up all the craft categories! Anything you're hoping for?
Sunday, January 6, 2013
Oscar Predictions, Part 1: Picture/Director
I'm long enough removed from my semi-regular blogging days that sitting down to do something like this feels totally bizarre. However, I'm going to continue for two reasons: 1) Tradition, dammit. I've been writing Oscar predictions online for 8 years now (ohmygod I'm getting older, aren't I?). 2) I saw this blog's page views for the first time today, I'm apparently somewhat popular in Belgium. Like, 2,000 views popular. Which is utterly mind-blowing to me. Which is so completely fantastical that I'm not entirely sure it's not just some silly software error. Anyway, for the sake of my probably-fictional Belgian following, I'll persevere.
So Oscar nominations are this Thursday, the 10th, aka Christmas morning for silly people like myself. Savvy readers will notice that I'm starting my usual 5-day series a little late, so I'm afraid a couple of posts will have to be mashed together for me to wrap everything up by Wednesday night. Today we'll do Picture, Director, and the miscellaneous categories that no one will follow. Tomorrow we'll dive into acting and screenplays, Tuesday will be craft categories, And I'll sum everything up with my final predictions on Wednesday. Obviously, as always, I reserve the right to change any prediction, switch any order, or just be as fickle as I want up to midnight the night before the Oscars. An interesting factor this year: the nominations are 2 weeks earlier than usual, which means the usual horrific bombardment of precursor film awards haven't all happened yet. Practically speaking, this means that predicting will be harder, because these precursors essentially function as copycats-cum-barometers forecasting the Academy's tastes. So I'll do my best, but no guarantees.
Sweet kettle of corn, I've already kicked Brevity's teeth in, haven't I? Bear with me, I only do this twice a year.
Best Picture
Remember the Academy's rule change: there will be anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees, depending on how many movies manage to secure 5% of all the #1 votes on Academy ballots. Which makes this category kind of ridiculous, from a predictions standpoint. First things first:
Group 1: These movies are getting nominated, barring sudden and unexpected Apocalypse:
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
The group title pretty much sums it up, right? I'd be completely shocked if any of these movies fell out. So that's 6 slots taken, which leaves room for four more potential nominees,which brings us to:
Group 2: Oh man, I don't even know, just throw a dart or something:
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Here's where it gets tough, in that each of these four have incredibly compelling arguments for inclusion, as well as some inescapable arguments against. Amour is a critically beloved heartbreaker from a respected auteur whose work has never before been so accessible, but is not too widely seen and might be too grim/foreign for the traditionally timid academy. Beasts of the Southern Wild is just as beloved and equally artistically adventurous, but it's a tiny, tiny movie. Seriously, this film was made in the woods starring a six-year-old and the baker from across the street. Don't count on the Academy remembering that this film's the single most deserving option on the whole damn list. Django Unchained: director Quentin Tarantino's got an awfully complicated love-hate thing going with the Academy, and I've no idea where this one will fall. The precursors/critics seem to suggest the love-side winning out, but who's to say? Finally, we have Wes Anderson's Moonrise Kingdom, which may feel too slight for voters to include it in the top 10, but man does this film have passion behind it, and that's really all you need to succeed under the current rules.
Finally, because I can't make things too easy:
Group 3: These movies can probably sneak up on ninjas
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
The Master
Skyfall
Though I don't have them in the top 10, these three films easily have the passionate fanbases and precursor support necessary to steal a spot from any of the movies from Group 2. Do I plan on that happening? Not at all. Could it happen? So much, yes.
So, all that said, the conclusion:
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Lincoln
Argo
Les Miserables
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Alternates: The Master, Skyfall
That's right y'all, 10 nominees. I'm probably being totally crazy and will probably chicken out and drop one from the list by Wednesday (sadly, Beasts will be the one to go), but for now let's all just roll with it.
Best Director
Since there are only five nominees, this category's a bit simpler. To begin with, there are three mortal locks: Ben Affleck for Argo, Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty, and Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. These three are in for sure. Next, we've got five directors wrestling for two slots:
-Michael Haneke, Amour: I love, love, love the idea of my beloved Haneke finally scoring with the Academy, and this film has certainly been his best chance to date. That being said, I'm not sure Amour has the steam to pull a slot from the other, more high-profile films competing.
-Tom Hooper, Les Miserables: Similarly, I would love, love, love to see Tom Hooper develop a fatal allergy to cameras and film-making in general. Given Hooper's Golden Globe snub in this category, I might not be the only one. Plenty of people have complained about Tom Hooper's (mis?)direction of Les Mis, but it could also be a big-enough juggernaut to sweep him along for the ride.
-Ang Lee, Life of Pi: Pi's been struggling to find a foothold lately, generally failing to find the widespread support it was assumed to have. Still, this film is definitely viewed as a director's achievement, and Lee might slide in purely on degree of difficulty.
-David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook: Russell could certainly be a default choice, if voters feel like honoring a good film without stepping up for a particularly daring or interesting artistic statement. I'm hoping voters will go for something more impressive, but one never knows.
-Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained: Again, Django could be loved or hated; it could get nothing, or it could hit double digits. So I've included Tarantino here just to hedge my bets.
-Other remote possibilities: Really, the only threat I see on the horizon is Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master, which is a film which has just not taken on with most awards bodies. Stranger things have happened, though.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Steven Spielberg-Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow-Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck-Argo
Ang Lee-Life of Pi
Tom Hooper-Les Miserables
Alternates: David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook, Quentin Tarantino-Django Unchained
Ok. Now I'm going to do some category dumping (and lose 9/10 of my readers) and predict the categories that most people won't care about: namely Animated, Foreign Language, and Documentary films.
Animated Film
With the increase of quality big-budget fare as well as the Academy's recent embrace of foreign/indie animation, this category is becoming awfully tricky to predict. The key is to strike the right balance between financial success, artistic integrity, and out-of-left-field weirdness. So let's start with what we do know: big studio successes Brave, Wreck-it Ralph, and Frankenweenie are most likely in. Brave may not have the regular Pixar stranglehold on the win, but it's solid enough for a nomination, while the latter two have been sweeping up the lion's share of critics prizes. So what else then? On the commercial side, we've got a few choices. ParaNorman was well-received, but might have been too much of a box-office flop to score here. Ditto Rise of the Guardians, which was advertised as a much bigger deal than it turned out to be. Other big-budget films (The Lorax? Madagascar 3?) were just too disliked to make an impression on the race. Conversely, the indie/foreign side of the equation is packed to bursting. Films that could hop in: From Up on Poppy Hill, a non-Miyazaki Studio Ghibli effort, A Liar's Autobiography: The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman, a biopic (obviously), The Rabbi's Cat, which is apparently quite witty, Le Tableau/The Painting, whose allegedly gorgeous animation could strike a chord with voters, and Zarafa, which is really just a series of letters which I have been assured do represent an actual movie. Whatever you say, other bloggers. I'm handicapped here, in that I've hardly heard of most of these littler movies, let alone seen them, which makes it hard to evaluate their respective assets.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Brave
Wreck-it Ralph
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Le Tableau/The Painting
Alternates: Rise of the Guardians, The Rabbi's Cat
Foreign Language Film
Speaking of films I've never seen....It's hard to predict this category, in that most of these will never open anywhere near where I live. Oh well. The Academy has already released a nine-film shortlist of eligible submissions:
Amour-Austria
Beyond the Hills-Romania
The Deep-Iceland
The Intouchables-France
Kon-Tiki-Norway
No-Chile
A Royal Affair-Denmark
Sister-Switzerland
War Witch-Canada
Ever since Cannes in May, The Intouchables and Amour have been fighting for foreign-language prizes, so I expect they're both in, but for very different reasons (Amour because it's stark and artistic and respected, Intouchables because it makes everyone smile a lot). If any of these films has been stealing the previous two's thunder, it's A Royal Affair so count Denmark's entry in as well. What of the other two slots? Beyond the Hills' inclusion on this list is most likely an apology to director Cristian Mungiu, whose 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days infamously failed to be nominated in this category. Don't expect this one to go any farther. The Deep and Kon-Tiki are both Scandinavian entries dealing with survival in very cold water; one of them might make it, but I highly doubt both of them will. Kon-Tiki is very big and obvious, which this branch loves, and is apparently Norway's most expensive film to date. It's probably in. Which leaves one spot for three artistically interesting films: No, War Witch, and Sister. No's TV-esque aesthetic might turn voters off, and War Witch might be too grim/brutal for voters (who may have spent all their grim-tolerance on Amour), which leaves one film left to sneak in and grab a spot.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Intouchables-France
Amour-Austria
A Royal Affair-Denmark
Kon-Tiki-Norway
Sister-Switzerland
Alternates: No-Chile, War Witch-Canada
Documentary Feature
Here's the category that, annually, I care the least about, if only because it's very, very hard for someone who doesn't live in New York City or LA to see any of the eligible films. So I won't spend much time analyzing. Here's what I do know: The Gatekeepers is both acclaimed and timely, Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God is about molestation, which this group loves to nominate, and Searching for Sugar Man is apparently a frontrunner, even though it's a music documentary, which this group normally hates. Watch out for surprise critics darling How to Survive a Plague, crowd-hit Chasing Ice, and (as a longshot), Jafar Panahi's house-arrest feat This is Not a Film.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Gatekeepers
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God:
Searching for Sugar Man
The Invisible War
How to Survive a Plague
Alternates: Chasing Ice, This is Not a Film
Well, that wraps it up for today. Tune in tomorrow (which really isn't very far away) as a dig into the rest of the major categories: acting and screenplays!
So Oscar nominations are this Thursday, the 10th, aka Christmas morning for silly people like myself. Savvy readers will notice that I'm starting my usual 5-day series a little late, so I'm afraid a couple of posts will have to be mashed together for me to wrap everything up by Wednesday night. Today we'll do Picture, Director, and the miscellaneous categories that no one will follow. Tomorrow we'll dive into acting and screenplays, Tuesday will be craft categories, And I'll sum everything up with my final predictions on Wednesday. Obviously, as always, I reserve the right to change any prediction, switch any order, or just be as fickle as I want up to midnight the night before the Oscars. An interesting factor this year: the nominations are 2 weeks earlier than usual, which means the usual horrific bombardment of precursor film awards haven't all happened yet. Practically speaking, this means that predicting will be harder, because these precursors essentially function as copycats-cum-barometers forecasting the Academy's tastes. So I'll do my best, but no guarantees.
Sweet kettle of corn, I've already kicked Brevity's teeth in, haven't I? Bear with me, I only do this twice a year.
Best Picture
Remember the Academy's rule change: there will be anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees, depending on how many movies manage to secure 5% of all the #1 votes on Academy ballots. Which makes this category kind of ridiculous, from a predictions standpoint. First things first:
Group 1: These movies are getting nominated, barring sudden and unexpected Apocalypse:
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
The group title pretty much sums it up, right? I'd be completely shocked if any of these movies fell out. So that's 6 slots taken, which leaves room for four more potential nominees,which brings us to:
Group 2: Oh man, I don't even know, just throw a dart or something:
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Here's where it gets tough, in that each of these four have incredibly compelling arguments for inclusion, as well as some inescapable arguments against. Amour is a critically beloved heartbreaker from a respected auteur whose work has never before been so accessible, but is not too widely seen and might be too grim/foreign for the traditionally timid academy. Beasts of the Southern Wild is just as beloved and equally artistically adventurous, but it's a tiny, tiny movie. Seriously, this film was made in the woods starring a six-year-old and the baker from across the street. Don't count on the Academy remembering that this film's the single most deserving option on the whole damn list. Django Unchained: director Quentin Tarantino's got an awfully complicated love-hate thing going with the Academy, and I've no idea where this one will fall. The precursors/critics seem to suggest the love-side winning out, but who's to say? Finally, we have Wes Anderson's Moonrise Kingdom, which may feel too slight for voters to include it in the top 10, but man does this film have passion behind it, and that's really all you need to succeed under the current rules.
Finally, because I can't make things too easy:
Group 3: These movies can probably sneak up on ninjas
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
The Master
Skyfall
Though I don't have them in the top 10, these three films easily have the passionate fanbases and precursor support necessary to steal a spot from any of the movies from Group 2. Do I plan on that happening? Not at all. Could it happen? So much, yes.
So, all that said, the conclusion:
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Lincoln
Argo
Les Miserables
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Alternates: The Master, Skyfall
That's right y'all, 10 nominees. I'm probably being totally crazy and will probably chicken out and drop one from the list by Wednesday (sadly, Beasts will be the one to go), but for now let's all just roll with it.
Best Director
Since there are only five nominees, this category's a bit simpler. To begin with, there are three mortal locks: Ben Affleck for Argo, Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty, and Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. These three are in for sure. Next, we've got five directors wrestling for two slots:
-Michael Haneke, Amour: I love, love, love the idea of my beloved Haneke finally scoring with the Academy, and this film has certainly been his best chance to date. That being said, I'm not sure Amour has the steam to pull a slot from the other, more high-profile films competing.
-Tom Hooper, Les Miserables: Similarly, I would love, love, love to see Tom Hooper develop a fatal allergy to cameras and film-making in general. Given Hooper's Golden Globe snub in this category, I might not be the only one. Plenty of people have complained about Tom Hooper's (mis?)direction of Les Mis, but it could also be a big-enough juggernaut to sweep him along for the ride.
-Ang Lee, Life of Pi: Pi's been struggling to find a foothold lately, generally failing to find the widespread support it was assumed to have. Still, this film is definitely viewed as a director's achievement, and Lee might slide in purely on degree of difficulty.
-David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook: Russell could certainly be a default choice, if voters feel like honoring a good film without stepping up for a particularly daring or interesting artistic statement. I'm hoping voters will go for something more impressive, but one never knows.
-Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained: Again, Django could be loved or hated; it could get nothing, or it could hit double digits. So I've included Tarantino here just to hedge my bets.
-Other remote possibilities: Really, the only threat I see on the horizon is Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master, which is a film which has just not taken on with most awards bodies. Stranger things have happened, though.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Steven Spielberg-Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow-Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck-Argo
Ang Lee-Life of Pi
Tom Hooper-Les Miserables
Alternates: David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook, Quentin Tarantino-Django Unchained
Ok. Now I'm going to do some category dumping (and lose 9/10 of my readers) and predict the categories that most people won't care about: namely Animated, Foreign Language, and Documentary films.
Animated Film
With the increase of quality big-budget fare as well as the Academy's recent embrace of foreign/indie animation, this category is becoming awfully tricky to predict. The key is to strike the right balance between financial success, artistic integrity, and out-of-left-field weirdness. So let's start with what we do know: big studio successes Brave, Wreck-it Ralph, and Frankenweenie are most likely in. Brave may not have the regular Pixar stranglehold on the win, but it's solid enough for a nomination, while the latter two have been sweeping up the lion's share of critics prizes. So what else then? On the commercial side, we've got a few choices. ParaNorman was well-received, but might have been too much of a box-office flop to score here. Ditto Rise of the Guardians, which was advertised as a much bigger deal than it turned out to be. Other big-budget films (The Lorax? Madagascar 3?) were just too disliked to make an impression on the race. Conversely, the indie/foreign side of the equation is packed to bursting. Films that could hop in: From Up on Poppy Hill, a non-Miyazaki Studio Ghibli effort, A Liar's Autobiography: The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman, a biopic (obviously), The Rabbi's Cat, which is apparently quite witty, Le Tableau/The Painting, whose allegedly gorgeous animation could strike a chord with voters, and Zarafa, which is really just a series of letters which I have been assured do represent an actual movie. Whatever you say, other bloggers. I'm handicapped here, in that I've hardly heard of most of these littler movies, let alone seen them, which makes it hard to evaluate their respective assets.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Brave
Wreck-it Ralph
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Le Tableau/The Painting
Alternates: Rise of the Guardians, The Rabbi's Cat
Foreign Language Film
Speaking of films I've never seen....It's hard to predict this category, in that most of these will never open anywhere near where I live. Oh well. The Academy has already released a nine-film shortlist of eligible submissions:
Amour-Austria
Beyond the Hills-Romania
The Deep-Iceland
The Intouchables-France
Kon-Tiki-Norway
No-Chile
A Royal Affair-Denmark
Sister-Switzerland
War Witch-Canada
Ever since Cannes in May, The Intouchables and Amour have been fighting for foreign-language prizes, so I expect they're both in, but for very different reasons (Amour because it's stark and artistic and respected, Intouchables because it makes everyone smile a lot). If any of these films has been stealing the previous two's thunder, it's A Royal Affair so count Denmark's entry in as well. What of the other two slots? Beyond the Hills' inclusion on this list is most likely an apology to director Cristian Mungiu, whose 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days infamously failed to be nominated in this category. Don't expect this one to go any farther. The Deep and Kon-Tiki are both Scandinavian entries dealing with survival in very cold water; one of them might make it, but I highly doubt both of them will. Kon-Tiki is very big and obvious, which this branch loves, and is apparently Norway's most expensive film to date. It's probably in. Which leaves one spot for three artistically interesting films: No, War Witch, and Sister. No's TV-esque aesthetic might turn voters off, and War Witch might be too grim/brutal for voters (who may have spent all their grim-tolerance on Amour), which leaves one film left to sneak in and grab a spot.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Intouchables-France
Amour-Austria
A Royal Affair-Denmark
Kon-Tiki-Norway
Sister-Switzerland
Alternates: No-Chile, War Witch-Canada
Documentary Feature
Here's the category that, annually, I care the least about, if only because it's very, very hard for someone who doesn't live in New York City or LA to see any of the eligible films. So I won't spend much time analyzing. Here's what I do know: The Gatekeepers is both acclaimed and timely, Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God is about molestation, which this group loves to nominate, and Searching for Sugar Man is apparently a frontrunner, even though it's a music documentary, which this group normally hates. Watch out for surprise critics darling How to Survive a Plague, crowd-hit Chasing Ice, and (as a longshot), Jafar Panahi's house-arrest feat This is Not a Film.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Gatekeepers
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God:
Searching for Sugar Man
The Invisible War
How to Survive a Plague
Alternates: Chasing Ice, This is Not a Film
Well, that wraps it up for today. Tune in tomorrow (which really isn't very far away) as a dig into the rest of the major categories: acting and screenplays!
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Final 2011 Oscar Predictions: Bare-Knuckle Brawl Edition
I know, I know, one more post and I'll be out of your hair for another year. As chance would have it, last year I wrote all my final Oscar predictions at once so as to avoid writing a paper. Well, it's Oscar time, and once again I've got a paper to write. Admittedly, this time it's about Robocop, not Confucianism, but that doesn't really matter. So I can continue to put off coming up with something about what Robocop has to say about the state of manhood, I'll just get down to it. This year, the top prizes might be easy to predict, but below the line, two films are gearing up for a heavy-weight deathmatch, prepared to wantonly slaughter any other movie that gets in their way. You'll see what I mean in a bit. For now...
Best Picture
The nominees:
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Ok, so The Artist is going to win. I wish I could spend a little more time analyzing, but it's just not necessary. The Artist has won every major prize, has momentum that's just about impossible, and is backed by Oscar-campaign giant Harvey Weinstein. People just love this movie, and are willing to throw every piece of possible hardware its direction. Writing about possible upsets just seems silly. Hugo is undoubtedly the Big Bad in the room, and The Descendants has rallied some support of late, but both are ultimately too weak to topple this year's champ.
Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Tree of Life
Should Have Been Here: Weekend
Best Director
The nominees:
Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist
Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne-The Descendants
Martin Scorsese-Hugo
Generally speaking, when there's a Best Picture contender as strong as The Artist, it's really, really difficult to come up with a convincing argument against the film's director being rewarded as well. Such is the case this year. Hazanivicius has a couple (fairly insignificant) knocks against him: he's French, he's not known in this country for anything other than The Artist, and Martin Scorsese's lifetime-achievement-esque campaign is waiting in the wings with the year's most-nominated film. Scorsese did win the Golden Globe over The Artist, but I really doubt that'll happen again.
Will Win-Michel Hazanivicius, The Artist
Could Win-Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Should Win-Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Should Have Been Here-Nicholas Winding Refn-Drive
Best Actor
The nominees:
Demian Bichir-A Better Life
George Clooney-The Descendants
Jean Dujardin-The Artist
Gary Oldman-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Brad Pitt-Moneyball
In what will surely become a repetitive argument, if it isn't already, it's just dangerous to bet against The Artist too much this year. Clooney looked the frontrunner at the beginning of the awards circuit, but Jean Dujardin has since surged to the top of the ladder, winning a Golden Globe, a SAG award, and a BAFTA (British equivalent of an Oscar). He's talented, memorable, and charming as all get-out. Clooney's still got a chance, but it's not a great one. I'd love for some residual Brad Pitt love to surprise us all Sunday night, but that's not very likely.
Will Win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Could Win: George Clooney, The Descendants
Should Win: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Should Have Been Here: Ryan Gosling, Drive
Best Actress
The nominees:
Glenn Close-Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis-The Help
Rooney Mara-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn
Finally, something that at least looks like a race (however small a race it may be). Ignore Close and Mara; they won't score here. This is a dead heat between Viola Davis and Meryl Streep. Davis is in the lead: she's in a well-liked best picture nominee, everyone loves the performance (even the people who don't like The Help), and she's seen as a respected actress finally getting her due. All Meryl's got going for her is the "she hasn't won in 29 years" argument, which just won't be compelling enough to snare her the gold this year. Watch Michelle Williams: if Davis and Streep are close enough to cancel each other out, Williams' Marilyn Monroe burlesque will be the performance that benefits.
Will Win: Viola Davis, The Help
Could Win: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Should Win: Viola Davis, The Help
Should Have Been Here: Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill-Moneyball
Nick Nolte-Warrior
Christopher Plummer-Beginners
Max Von Sydow-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Battle of the Elderly--2012: Extremely Locked and Incredibly Obvious. Branagh, Hill, and Nolte are all out: they're too not-showy, detested, and drunk, respectively. This comes down to Plummer and Von Sydow. Ok, who am I kidding, this comes down to just Christopher Plummer. I've heard murmurs of Von Sydow stealing the "let's reward him before he we bury him" sentiment, but it just isn't happening. Sorry, Bergman films. Von Sydow's career will have to be the reward instead.
Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Could Win: Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Should Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Should Have Been Here: Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees:
Berenice Bejo-The Artist
Jessica Chastain-The Help
Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer-The Help
Like Supporting Actor, this one's all but decided. Octavia Spencer's going to walk to the podium on a carpet of poop-filled dessert. You could argue that having two women from The Help will cause a vote split, opening the way for The Artist, but that argument didn't work last year applied to The Fighter, and I don't see it working this year either. Similarly, you could argue that The Artist's steamroller is going to flatten everything in its way. Possibly, but if The Artist fails to land anywhere, it'll be in this category.
Will Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Could Win: Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Should Win: Jessica Chastain, The Help
Should Have Been Here: Rose Byrne, Bridesmaids
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees:
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Ignore three nominees right away--Bridesmaids, Margin Call, and A Separation are just along for the ride. This category comes down to the inevitable (albeit silent) Best Picture winner trading blows with a universally loved witty, verbal Woody Allen script. I wouldn't fault you for picking The Artist here: the best picture winner hasn't lost in screenplay since Million Dollar Baby in 2004. That being said, I'm giving Allen the edge. To most voters, screenplay=dialogue, and The Artist has, you guessed it, no dialogue, whereas Midnight in Paris sounds and plays like every writer's dizziest daydream come true. Either film could take the win, however.
Will Win: Midnight in Paris
Could Win: The Artist
Should Win: Midnight in Paris*
Should Have Been Here: Weekend
*note that I haven't seen A Separation, so "should win" here means "should win out of the four nominees I've seen."
Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
I imagine this is a three-way race. Despite their relative merits, The Ides of March and Tinker Tailor won't have the support to go all the way. That leaves three choices: The Descendants sounds fairly literate in the theater, and is (apparently) a loved film that voters might want to recognize somewhere, but its script is the source of most of the film's problems. Hugo is, arguably, the best picture runner-up, which has to help, but it's admittedly not much of a writer's showcase. Finally, Moneyball is a fantastic, verbal script, and Moneyball seems to have more support than originally anticipated. So who to choose? It's a nail-biter, and any of these three winning wouldn't surprise me, but I've got to give the slight edge to former winner Alexander Payne, whose Descendants script has experienced a recent uptick in popularity, winning the Writers Guild and USC Scripter awards.
Will Win: The Descendants
Could Win: Moneyball
Should Win: Moneyball
Should Have Been Here: Drive
Art Direction
The nominees:
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
This award seems like a more obvious pick than it ought to. Hugo's got to win here, right? It's a beloved film and the design elements are absolutely stunning. What it's got going against it is The Artist and all its momentum, which you'll find is the case for at least half of these craft categories. I think Hugo's bright colors and huge sets will KO The Artist's subtler designs. If there is, however, a solid challenger, it's gotta be Harry Potter: surely some Academy members will feel like giving the whole series a pat on the back for its consistently wonderful production design.
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Should Win: Hugo
Should Have Been Here: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Costume Design
The nominees:
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
This category is really tough, in that all five movies could conceivably win. Anonymous fits this branch's recent paradigm, which is to say that it's the sort of British royalty costume porn that has been rewarded in this category with only one exception since 2006. The Artist is impressive and the Best Picture front-runner, but black-and-white movies don't triumph here (voters like pretty colors). The pretty color argument works in favor of Hugo, whose costumes are bright, fun, and memorable. If voters feel like going for period British costumes but don't feel like voting for a terrible movie, they can take the classy route and go for Jane Eyre, but the film might be too small to be remembered or seen by enough voters. Finally, W.E. won the Costume Designers award, but I just don't think enough Academy Members will have seen and/or liked this movie to give it a statue. This is easily one of the toughest calls of the night, but I'm going with pretty colors for the win.
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: Anonymous
Should Win: Jane Eyre
Should Have Been Here: Immortals
Visual Effects
The nominees:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Real Steel
I'd like to think this race is all sewn up; those Weta-made apes are so impressive. That being said, I feel like this category is primed for an upset. Here's an easy place to give a consolation prize to Harry Potter without toppling a more well-loved title, or, if voters are feeling bland, they could just vote for the only prestige flick in the lineup and go with Hugo. I think I'll stick with the monkeys, but I could very well be wrong.
Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Should Have Been Here: The Tree of Life
Makeup
The nominees:
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady
Here's an easy one. Generally, the Academy loves transformative elderly work, and The Iron Lady provides plenty of that. Harry Potter's got a chance to steal, but I figure Meryl Streep's old-lady teeth will carry the day here.
Will Win: The Iron Lady
Could Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Should Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Should Have Been Here: Immortals
Film Editing
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Here's another category where any nominee could take it. Generally, Best Picture threats take this category, which helps The Artist, The Descendants, and Hugo, but when they don't it goes to a well-made action/genre pic, which helps The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and every now and again they go with the structurally complex work, which helps Moneyball, and they do love their veteran editors, which helps Hugo. So it's tough to pick one, is the point. When this category provides a tough choice, always go with the Best Picture frontrunner. It's the safe guess.
Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Artist
Should Have Been Here: Drive
Cinematography
The nominees:
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Like many of the craft categories this year, cinematography provides a difficult choice with no clear winners. The Artist is gorgeous, but is black and white, and (as said before) voters love pretty colors. Hugo has plenty of bright colors and looks very nice, but might not be overtly showy enough. The Tree of Life is clearly the best, with the most eye-catching lensing, but it might be too weird for the Academy, and Tree cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki has a great record for losing at the last second. A lot of people (myself included) find War Horse's cinematography fairly ridiculous, but it does have lots of sunsets and exterior shots and the like, which uneducated voters love. So who takes it? I wish I could vote for the best, but I just don't think it'll happen. I'll probably kill myself if War Horse wins, though.
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: The Tree of Life
Should Win: The Tree of Life
Should Have Been Here: Drive
Original Score
The nominees:
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse
This one's a far easier call. Scoring a silent movie is a very difficult endeavor which makes The Artist completely unique in this category. Howard Shore already has a few Oscars, so they probably won't be falling over themselves to reward Hugo, and John Williams is really going to have to knock things out of the park to get another Oscar, which takes War Horse and Tintin out of the running.
Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Artist
Should Have Been Here: Hanna
Sound Mixing
The nominees:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Ok, so Dragon Tattoo is too subtle and prickly to win. Ditto Moneyball. I'd say Transformers had a shot, but the Academy obviously hates this franchise. If the first one couldn't win, this one certainly won't. That means this is down to Hugo and War Horse. War Horse has all the elements this branch typically goes for: war, horse, loud noises, etc., but for some reason, Hugo has become the front-runner, winning most of the sound prizes out there. It's a decidedly atypical winner (ie it's not very loud), but I think it's got this category in the bag.
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: War Horse
Should Win: War Horse
Should Have Been Here: The Tree of Life
Sound Editing
The nominees:
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Ok, pretty much it's the same argument here as the other sound category. Only difference is that I can very easily imagine a split between Hugo and War Horse, i.e. each movie takes one sound award. If War Horse gets one, it's sound editing. That being said, I'm just not confident enough in a split to take War Horse here.
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: War Horse
Should Win: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Should Have Been Here: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Original Song
The nominees:
"Man or Muppet"-The Muppets
"Real in Rio"-Rio
This category is so silly this year. Muppets win easily.
Will Win: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets
Could Win: "Real in Rio"-Rio
Should Win: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets
Should Have Been Here: "Pictures in My Head"-The Muppets
Animated Film
The nominees:
A Cat in Paris
Chico and Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
This one needs no commentary. No way anything other than Rango wins.
Will Win: Rango
Could Win: Puss in Boots
Should Win: Rango
Should Have Been Here: Winnie the Pooh
Foreign Language Film
The nominees:
Bullhead-Belgium
Footnote-Israel
In Darkness-Poland
Monsieur Lazhar-Canada
A Separation-Iran
I'd love to say A Separation, hailed as a modern masterpiece, has this in the bag. If this category's good for one thing, though, it's giving modern masterpieces the finger. So what could take the gold? Footnote won an award at Cannes, but I don't think it's emotional enough. In Darkness is about the Holocaust, which this category loves, but it might be a little too grim for voters (they like their Holocausts inspiring). Monsieur Lazhar is apparently emotionally uplifting, which is pretty crucial here. And Bullhead, which is apparently about castration, can probably safely be ruled out. I honestly think A Separation can take the win here, if only because none of its competitors have enough support to get rid of it. None of them check enough sentimental/manipulative/bad movie boxes, so A Separation wins by default. I bet they'll hate giving this movie to a good movie for once.
Will Win: A Separation
Could Win: Monsieur Lazhar
Should Win: (Abstain) ( I haven't seen any of these, sorry)
Documentary Feature
The nominees:
Hell and Back Again
If A Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
This category is insanely difficult, not least because I've only seen two of these. Every nominee's got a good argument for it, but I'll rule out a couple: If a Tree Falls is too boring and Pina is too weird. Hell and Back Again might win, but I hope it doesn't, because it's pretty routine and not terribly well-made. Paradise Lost is probably the fruntrunner, given its relevance in the news (the murder case it's been profiling was just acquitted), but I'm going with Undefeated. It may be low-key, but it's got an emotional punch and it's been campaigning hard recently.
Will Win: Undefeated
Could Win: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Should Win: (abstain. again.)
There we have it. For those keeping score at home, here are the movies I'm predicting to score more than once:
The Artist-5
Hugo-5
The Help-2
We'll see how things go, I suppose! Any last minute predictions/preferences?
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Best of 2011, Part 5: My Dream Oscar Ballot
Alright, here's the end of the Best of 2011 kudos. Today, I'm just going to wrap everything up with my dream Oscar ballot, y'know, get everything in one nice, easy-to-read place, in case reading lists for hours on end just doesn't do it for you. No commentary, just nominees with the winners in bold. I'll put asterisks next to actual Oscar nominees so you can get an idea of just how much I think the Academy screwed things up this year.
(Note: I'm going to do 9 best picture nominees, because that's the number the Academy has this year. Sorry, Jane Eyre. You'd be #10.)
Best Picture
The Artist*
Beginners
Bridesmaids
Drive
Hanna
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Martha Marcy May Marlene
The Tree of Life*
Weekend
Director
Andrew Haigh-Weekend
Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist*
Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life*
Nicholas Winding Refn-Drive
Joe Wright-Hanna
Actor
Tom Cullen-Weekend
Jean Dujardin-The Artist*
Michael Fassbender-Shame
Ryan Gosling-Drive
Brad Pitt-Moneyball*
Actress
Viola Davis-The Help*
Kirsten Dunst-Melancholia
Elizabeth Olsen-Martha Marcy May Marlene
Charlize Theron-Young Adult
Kristen Wiig-Bridesmaids
Supporting Actor
Albert Brooks-Drive
Tom Hardy-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Brad Pitt-The Tree of Life
Christopher Plummer-Beginners*
Corey Stoll-Midnight in Paris
Supporting Actress
Rose Byrne-Bridesmaids
Jessica Chastain-The Help*
Angelica Huston-50/50
Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids*
Carey Mulligan-Shame
Original Screenplay
Beginners
Bridesmaids*
Martha Marcy May Marlene
Midnight in Paris*
Weekend*
Adapted Screenplay
Drive
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Jane Eyre
Moneyball*
The Muppets
Art Direction
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2*
Hugo*
Immortals
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
X-Men: First Class
Costume Design
The Artist*
Captain America: The First Avenger
Hugo*
Jane Eyre*
Immortals*
Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2*
Hugo*
Rise of the Planet of the Apes*
Transformers: Dark of the Moon*
The Tree of Life
Makeup
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2*
Immortals
Thor
Film Editing
The Artist*
Drive
Hanna
Senna
The Tree of Life
Cinematography
The Artist*
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo*
Hanna
The Tree of Life*
Original Score
The Artist*
Attack the Block
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hanna
The Skin I Live In
Sound Mixing
Drive
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol
The Tree of Life
War Horse*
Sound Effects Editing
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol
Rango
Transformers: Dark of the Moon*
War Horse*
Original Song
"Fake I.D."-Footloose
"Life's a Happy Song"-The Muppets
"Pictures in My Head"-The Muppets
"So Long"-Winnie the Pooh
"Star Spangled Man"-Captain America: The First Avenger
Just for fun, here are my nominees for the Animated/Foreign/Documentary categories. It's worth noting that my opinion in these categories is pretty pointless, given that I've seen 5/6/6 movies that fit each category, respectively. So that means every animated film I've seen gets nominated, and only one foreign/doc gets left off. Hey. Buy for what's worth...
(note, I am going to list these in order of preference, to give this last tiny post at least some semblance of relevance.)
Animated Film
Winnie the Pooh
Rango*
Rio
Kung Fu Panda 2*
Cars 2
Foreign Language Film
Pina-Germany
Trollhunter-Norway
The Skin I Live In-Spain
Vincent Wants to Sea-Germany
I Saw the Devil-South Korea
Documentary Feature
Bombay Beach
Senna
Cave of Forgotten Dreams
Pina
Project Nim
There we have it. Another movie year gone. I imagine you'll hear from me again briefly next week, so I can offer up some final Oscar predictions. Until then, thanks for reading! Hopefully all these silly lists inspire you (or anyone) to go watch some good movies!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)