Oscar Nominations 2021: Get In Losers, We're Running Over Aaron Sorkin

 I--. You know what?

I'm not gonna complain.

That's right, after half a lifetime of powerlessly shrieking into the wind every time the Oscars roll around, a joyful little dance of rage I've committed to more strongly than anything else in my entire life, I'm just gonna shrug and nod a little. Because the Oscars...kind of got things right-ish this year? Granted, there are some egregious snubs, and some things I despise popping up where you'd least want the things you despise to pop up, I can't help but look at the list this morning and feel fine. You might be able to credit this to the Academy's years-long initiative to make its voters more diverse and international finally paying off and creating a voting body that's more willing to take a chance on slightly more challenging or interesting fare, or maybe after living through the past few years, we've all learned to carefully measure and spend our outrage. Or maybe I'm just in that warm, happy place that can only happen when Being the Ricardos falls on its face. Either way, if you've ever needed a little extra kick to wade into the Oscar conversation and see more of the nominees, this is the year to do it: there's plenty of gold (statues or otherwise) to find here.

Arguably, the biggest story of the morning is The Power of the Dog scoring in every conceivable place with 12 nominations (it's on netflix right now! go watch it!), or maybe it's the overperformance of international titles, with Drive My Car, Flee, Parallel Mothers, and The Worst Person in the World all thriving. Really, it's a wacky list, and one that feels as though it would have been vaguely inconceivable even a decade ago, so let's dive in!

I'll put an asterisk next to the nominations I predicted correctly, but maybe don't hold your breath for a ton of asterisks.

Best Picture
Belfast*
Coda*
Don't Look Up*
Drive My Car*
King Richard*
Licorice Pizza*
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog*
West Side Story*

 I'm most thrilled for Drive My Car, which becomes only the 13th non-English language film to be nominated in this category, and was far from a sure thing, even though it absolutely deserves it. Almost as thrilled to see Being the Ricardos miss--something it did a fair amount of this morning. I don't have lots of love for Don't Look Up, Belfast, and CODA, but I can live with their being here. Also a surprise to see Nightmare Alley, a film not well loved by precursor awards, critics, or the box office, finding its way into this category--and without a nomination in any other major category. 

Early winner prediction: The Power of the Dog

Director
Paul Thomas Anderson-Licorice Pizza*
Kenneth Branagh-Belfast*
Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog*
Ryusuke Hamaguchi-Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg-West Side Story*

Despite Branagh, this is a great category, with Campion becoming the first woman to receive multiple directing nominations, and Hamaguchi extending the Academy's recent trend of nominating international directors here (see last year's Thomas Vinterberg/Another Round or the previous year's Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War). Despite Belfast feeling like someone just discovered iMovie, Branagh becomes the first person ever to be nominated in 7 different categories across his career this morning (picture, director, actor, supporting actor, original screenplay, adapted screenplay, live action short).

Early winner prediction: Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog

Actress
Jessica Chastain-The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman-The Lost Daughter*
Penelope Cruz-Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman-Being the Ricardos*
Kristen Stewart-Spencer*

Olivia Colman! Penelope Cruz! Kristen-ass Stewart getting her long deserved first Oscar nomination! This category might have elicited the most wild snapping and air-punching from me this morning. A strong lineup, despite the Ricardoness of it all.

Early winner prediction: Olivia Colman-The Lost Daughter

Actor
Javier Bardem-Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch-The Power of the Dog*
Andrew Garfield-Tick Tick Boom*
Will Smith-King Richard*
Denzel Washington-The Tragedy of Macbeth*

Less than thrilled that Bardem's here--he's a great actor, and seems great, but is woefully miscast and never figures out what to do about it. All of this is fine, though, I guess? I'll always greet any Andrew Garfield nom to make up for his dumb Social Network snub all those years ago, and the rest of the field is strong enough. Fun fact: Bardem getting in here makes him the first of two married couples (with his wife Penelope Cruz) to get his and hers Oscar nominations this morning.

Early winner prediction: Will Smith-King Richard

Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley-The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose-West Side Story*
Judi Dench-Belfast
Kirsten Dunst-The Power of the Dog*
Aunjanue Ellis-King Richard*

Maybe most surprising category of the morning, with Buckley showing up (almost) out of nowhere, and Dench knocking off her more heavily awarded co-star Caitrona Balfe. That kind of chaos might make this DeBose's to lose, which is only tradition, as every iteration of Anita in West Side Story on a major stage has won a Tony or an Oscar. Another fun fact: with this nomination, her eighth, Judi Dench has now been nominated in four consecutive decades.

Early winner prediction: Ariana DeBose-West Side Story

Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds-Belfast*
Troy Kotsur-CODA*
Jesse Plemons-The Power of the Dog*
JK Simmons-Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee-The Power of the Dog*

Pleased that my long-shot Jesse Plemons prediction panned out--he's been doing stellar work for decades and deserves the recognition (and, as he's married to Kirsten Dunst, he completes the supporting set of his and hers nominations this morning).The exact opposite of pleased for JK Simmons (one reviewer--I can't remember who, sorry nameless, faceless hero reviewer--wrote that Simmons 'takes a role that he could do in his sleep and then does exactly that), but here we are. Kotsur becomes only the second deaf person nominated for an acting Oscar, and the first man to do so (the only other is Marlee Matlin--who co-starred in CODA--who won Best Actress for Children of a Lesser God in 1986). If Smit-McPhee wins (which he very well might), he would become the second youngest winner ever in this category, at 23 years old (the youngest remains Timothy Hutton, who won at 19 years old for Ordinary People in 1980).

Early winner prediction: Kodi Smit-McPhee-The Power of the Dog

Original Screenplay
Belfast*
Don't Look Up*
King Richard*
Licorice Pizza*
The Worst Person in the World

(In?)arguably the biggest surprise of the morning as Norwegian hit The Worst Person in the World showing up here, when the debate leading up to nominations was if it would even have the strength to make it into International Feature. I haven't seen it yet, but other people seem thrilled--at any rate, I owe it a massive fruit basket every year from now until the heat death of the universe for denying Being the Ricardos a place here.

Early winner prediction: Licorice Pizza

Adapted Screenplay
CODA*
Drive My Car*
Dune*
The Lost Daughter*
The Power of the Dog*

Improbably, my 'Dune gets screenplay but not director, and West Side Story gets director but not screenplay' gambit paid off--which is a real bummer, because West Side Story was a pretty impressive feat of adaptation from all-time great writer Tony Kushner. Well, we can't win them all (but how anyone voted for, hypothetically, Coda over WSS in this category will forever be a mystery to me). Still, this is a ridiculously strong category, and again, Drive My Car! Over the moon that it hit in basically every conceivable category.

Early winner prediction: The Power of the Dog

Production Design
Dune*
Nightmare Alley*
The Power of the Dog*
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story*

Power of the Dog scoring here shows off how strong it was going into nominations (as well as its Sound nomination coming up in a minute), and begins a long line of Belfast not being able to throw the same weight around (thank goodness). This category also begins the Power of the Dog vs. Dune throwdown in the craft categories that will continue right up until the envelopes are opened.

Early winner prediction: Dune

Costume Design
Cruella*
Cyrano*
Dune*
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

Gutted to see The Green Knight miss here (and everywhere), but that was always a long shot. Nightmare Alley pops up again in an unexpected place (though much less unexpected than in best picture--still reeling from that a bit), and Cyrano managing to grab something despite its release strategy of pretending not to exist. 

Early winner prediction: Dune

Visual Effects
Dune*
Free Guy*
No Time to Die*
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home*

Fans hoping to see Spider-Man in best picture will have to comfort themselves with its solitary nomination here (though, honestly...I have questions about your hopes). In any case, Marvel films very rarely get a nomination in anything other than this category: the only three that have managed were Iron Man with a sound editing nod, Guardians of the Galaxy getting in for Makeup, and Black Panther's 7-nomination run, including best picture. Anyway, now I have to watch Free Guy.

Early winner prediction: Dune

Makeup and Hairstyling
Coming 2 America*
Cruella*
Dune*
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci*

This marks House of Gucci's nomination--given I predicted it would be up for five Oscars, including best picture, it's definitely my biggest fumble of the morning. Neither shocked nor surprised, though a little hurt, that Tammy Faye's intense and alien prosthetics snuck in here, but goodness knows this category loves a flashy transformation.

Early winner prediction: Dune

Film Editing
Don't Look Up*
Dune*
King Richard
The Power of the Dog*
Tick Tick Boom

Furious that I didn't follow my last-minute instinct to predict Tick Tick Boom and played it safe instead, but it's a fun choice here--and pretty atypical, as this category skew very close to the best picture race, and Tick Tick Boom won't be found there. As it is traditionally close to impossible to win best picture without a nomination in this category (it's only happened once in the past 40 years), your future best picture winner is almost definitely one of those movies up there.

Early winner prediction: The Power of the Dog

Cinematography
Dune*
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog*
The Tragedy of Macbeth*
West Side Story*

My second biggest cheer of the morning came when I realized that Belfast didn't score here, something that still fills me with glee. Really, Belfast lost most of the momentum it had this morning, not being able to clinch either two of its four possible acting noms and missing here and in production design and film editing. Not that I'm complaining, of course, but strange to think that it was the presumptive frontrunner for like three straight months.

Early winner prediction: Dune

Original Score
Don't Look Up*
Dune*
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog*

I flew a little too close to the sun in predicting Candyman, but you have to have a dream or two. More surprising that The French Dispatch missed here (and everywhere else), making it the first Wes Anderson movie in 15 years not to be Oscar-nominated in some capacity. I ought to have read the tea leaves on Disney+ and included Encanto here, but I wrongfully assumed that the trend of nominating Disney movies for songs only (one that's persisted since the end of the 90s) would continue. Also a delight to see Parallel Mothers pop up somewhere else--one of my favorites of the year, but one I'd figured had no real shot at the Oscars.

Early winner prediction: The Power of the Dog

Sound
Belfast
Dune*
No Time to Die*
The Power of the Dog*
West Side Story*

Wild and bizarre that Belfast manages to hold on here despite all its other misses, but this category sometimes sticks pretty close to the buzzy titles. This is one of No Time to Die's three nominations this morning, making it the second most nominated James Bond movie ever (behind Skyfall's five nominations). And again, The Power of the Dog showing up here reiterates its, uh, power (its dog will have to be reiterated elsewhere).

Original Song
"Be Alive"-King Richard*
"Dos Oruguitas"-Encanto*
"Down to Joy"-Belfast
"No Time to Die"-No Time to Die*
"Somehow You Do"-Four Good Days*

God bless Diane Warren and her yearly tradition of getting nominated for a movie that no one has seen--I assume she's doing this via dark ritual, and would happily volunteer to get sealed in a sarcophagus or whatever for the Diane Warren cause. Oscar ceremony planners must be beside themselves with joy right now, given this category has nominated songs by Billie Eilish, Beyoncé, Van Morrison, and the most popular Disney album of the last 30 years. 

Early winner prediction: "Dos Oruguitas"-Encanto

Animated Film
Flee*
Encanto*
Luca*
The Mitchells vs. the Machines*
Raya and the Last Dragon

If Belle had beaten Raya to the finish line, this would have been an all-timer of a lineup, but instead we'll have to settle for four great movies and one lukewarm one. Absolutely thrilled for Luca, Mitchells, and Flee (the hand-wringing about how Flee's campaigning in three categories was wildly off the mark, as you'll soon see).

Early winner prediction: Encanto

International Film
Drive My Car-Japan*
Flee-Denmark*
The Hand of God-Italy*
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom-Bhutan
The Worst Person in the World-Norway

This is another ridiculously strong category (or so I've heard, as I haven't seen all of these yet). Groovy to see a lesser known competitor like Lunana get in, netting Bhutan its first ever nomination, and equally groovy to see every other slot taken by a great movie. This might be my favorite category of the morning, and I haven't even seen two of them yet.

Early winner prediction: Drive My Car-Denmark

Documentary Feature
Ascension
Attica*
Flee*
Summer of Soul*
Writing with Fire

Some chaos here, as presumptive frontrunners/strong competitors Procession and The Rescue miss, but I don't know if I can argue with the results (even if I haven't seen a few of these). I'll be curious if Summer of Soul walks to the finish from here, or the instability opens up the possibility of something wacky. With Flee scoring here, it becomes the only movie ever to be nominated in all three specialty categories--animated, international, and documentary. Previously, Collective and Honeyland were nominated in both international and documentary in 2020 and 2019, respectively.

Of the non-specialty categories (i.e not animated, international, or documentary), I've seen most of the nominees already, missing only The Worst Person in the World, Cruella, Coming 2 America, Free Guy, and Four Good Days, all of which are either readily available online or opening soon at a theater near me. The harder to cover categories are a little tougher. I've seen everything in animated, but am still missing The Worst Person in the World, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, Attica, Summer of Soul, and Writing with Fire. Of those, both Lunana and Writing with Fire are nowhere to be found, but I'm hoping that will change now that they can add 'Oscar nominee' to their business cards. 

Predictions-wise, I didn't thrive, but I didn't totally fall on my face. The only category I completely nailed was Adapted Screenplay (and only going five for five in one category has got to be a personal worst), but I also didn't totally mess up any categories, guessing three or four correctly everywhere else. 

For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated movies:

1. The Power of the Dog-12
2. Dune-10
3. Belfast-7
4. West Side Story-7
5. King Richard-6
6. Drive My Car-4
7. Don't Look Up-4
8. Nightmare Alley-4
9. Licorice Pizza-3
10. CODA-3

Seeing it all laid out, it's kind of remarkable how spread out these nominations were, with only two movies really pushing the numbers and everything else pretty evenly distributed. The distinction of most nominated film that isn't nominated for best picture is a four-way tie between Being the Ricardos, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Flee, and No Time to Die, each with three.

And here's a few movies that weren't nominated for anything: Passing, The Last Duel, The French Dispatch, The Harder They Fall, Eternals, Pig, Red Rocket, Respect, The Tender Bar, A Hero, C'mon C'mon, Mass, The Matrix: Resurrections, Black Widow, Last Night in Soho, Great Freedom, Compartment No. 6, Prayers for the Stolen, I'm Your Man, Procession, The Rescue, Bergman Island, Titane, Zola, The Green Knight. 

You win some, you lose some.

And there's another year already! How did you react? What's great? What's terrible? What's missing? As always, no matter how good or bad the nominations are, I have to say that I love the Oscars and all the silly little things that come along with them, and every year before the nominations I have trouble sleeping, like a kid before Christmas. It's silly and dumb, but hey, so am I, so why not embrace it?

Oscar Predictions 2021: Take Me, Gravity

An artist's rendering of the impending Oscar nominations, 

Pixels and Good Vibes, 2022

(source) 

And somehow, improbably, inevitably, another year is gone already--which seems ridiculous, given that it's still late 2019, and also that time no longer means anything. Last year, writing Oscar predictions in (what was supposed to be) the tail-end of the pandemic felt like a reclamation. If spring 2020 felt like the end of the world, then spring 2021 surely felt like a resurgence. The world was still ending, sure, but we were all used to it, and it could only end for so long, right? Well, smash-cut to spring 2022 and those feelings were maybe premature. Things are different, things are the same, and every day to some extent can be contained inside an apparently infinite spring afternoon on March 8th (or April 31st, or Junifer Lawrence the 10th, or any other day that is just as real as an inane dystopian sci-fi date like February 7th, 2022). 

Point is, time is silly, and all the things that were same are different, and all the things that were different have stayed the same. One of these constants, obviously, is the Oscars, which, like time and the slow decline of all things on this and any other earth, have been happening since 1927 and show no signs of pumping the brakes. And luckily for all of us, the universe's capacity for entropy is only slightly greater than my frenzied dedication to chronicling the Oscars in all their sordid glory. So now, like in any late winter/early spring for almost 100 years, a massive, golden-plated naked man stands over the year with a scythe (a dream scenario for any true movie fan, or fan of life, really), ready to separate the strong from the weak--or, because it's Oscar, the challenging, interesting, and fun movies from Being the Ricardos (and no points for guessing which gets all the Oscar nominations) (take me, hounds of hell). 

Honestly though, the slate of probable nominations to be expected this year isn't too bad, with plenty of interesting, challenging, and fun movies vying for the top prizes, and only a handful of dubious picks getting in their way. Hell, a full half of my own top 10 should (hopefully) show up somewhere in the morning, with only one of my bottom five similarly positioned (proving that last year, in which none of my least favorite movies of the year threatened for best picture, was a delight but an anomaly). And this feat--a strong slate of best picture contenders--already something of a rarity in itself, is even more impressive, given this is the shortest Oscar year in history. After last year's eligibility period was extended until February 28th, 2021, this year's Oscars honor films from March 1st-December 31st, 2021, the only Oscar year on the books that is a 'year' in name only. 

The shortened time span, however, shouldn't suggest that the race is more settled, or has fewer contenders, as so many of the categories this year threaten to be absolutely bananas. While the Academy might err toward the familiar and stick with a few already heavily lauded favorites, they might also take a cue from Roland Emmerich's picture book and drop an entire-ass Moon onto the world (which, uh, is one surefire way to shake up the Oscar race). Point is, things--unlike the moon--are still up in the air. 

Until the moon does come to claim us all, however, I'll go ahead and dump all my predictions at once in one profoundly upsetting dogpile. Bear in mind that I try to predict for fun as much as for accuracy--there are plenty of places to go on the internet if you're looking for mathematical precision, but only so many if you're looking for maudlin intros and Moonfall jokes followed by slack-jawed silliness. And let me tell you, I am all out of math, but I've got plenty of Moonfall left, so strap in.

(note: all the predictions are ranked in order of likelihood--so the first movie listed is the most likely, the second the next most likely, and so on.)

Best Picture
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
West Side Story
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Dune
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
House of Gucci
Alternate: Being the Ricardos

This year will be the first year since 2010 that the Academy abandons its sliding scale method of nominations in this category, in which the number of nominees fluctuated between 5 and 10, based on the amount of voter passion (i.e. #1 votes) each film had. This year will have a guaranteed nominees, and it's tough to guess exactly how that'll effect proceedings. If there were a sliding number of nominees, then we could confidently predict that the top eight (Power of the Dog through Don't Look Up) would be the only eight moving forward. Given there are two more slots to fill, however, we get a Rollerball deathmatch for the final two slots between a solid half dozen movies, none of which feel entirely plausible. It's absolutely absurd of me to not predict Being the Ricardos, a film which has strong guild support and has Aaron Sorkin behind it--an Academy favorite. But I hate the film with a blinding passion, and this is my sandbox, so I get to un-manifest it's Oscar glory for as long as I can. The exact argument has be pushing Drive My Car, a film I deeply love, into the top 10, though its path to a nomination is certainly fraught. Lin-Manuel Miranda's Tick Tick Boom has a strong chance, based on its precursor award success, as does The Tragedy of Macbeth, which is a critically well-received Coen movie (though that's something I think other Oscar bloggers are leaning into a little too hard, given there are plenty of acclaimed Coen movies lying dead at Oscar's gates). And you can flip a coin whether residual love for Guillermo Del Toro or respect for debut director Maggie Gyllenhaal will get either Nightmare Alley or The Lost Daughter, respectively, into the top 10. So why, then, am I campy shitshow punchline House of Gucci to beat them all? Because it would be funny, honestly. But also because (some) people still respect Ridley Scott, and it seems silly to talk about Gucci for all the nominations I'm about to without believing that it can land here, and because it was more or less the only financially successful non-genre theatrical release aimed at adults this year. Come on, you know you want to watch half the internet's brains melt when this happens.

Director
Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog
Paul Thomas Anderson-Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh-Belfast
Steven Spielberg-West Side Story
Adam McKay-Don't Look Up
Alternate: Denis Villeneuve-Dune

It's probably extremely silly of me to predict a Villeneuve snub--the champion of the internet, the box office, and Arrakis--but none of those entities votes for Oscars (maybe Arrakis). But Campion is a lock, Licorice Pizza has had a huge surge, and people love the film, Belfast was the day-one frontrunner, and hasn't lost near as much steam as it ought to have. Spielberg could certainly be the surprise snub, West Side Story having performed much more poorly than expected in the precursor award circuit (and, to a lesser extent, at the box office). But I'm banking on respect for him and his style of filmmaking to carry the day. Which leaves McKay, a seemingly incomprehensible pick on my part. But hear me out: all of his 'serious' films have overperformed at the Oscars; remember Vice getting 8 Oscar noms? And Vice was much less respected or popular than Don't Look Up, which, somehow, captured some sliver of zeitgeist over the past couple months. And while Dune and Don't Look Up are very different iterations of sci-fi, I'm going out on a limb and guessing that they only have room for one, and they'll pick the guy they've showered with baffling attention before. Look for Ryuche Hamaguchi/Drive My Car or Joel Coen/The Tragedy of Macbeth to surprise if there's a snub and McKay doesn't take the spot, but those seem like the only plausible choices. Beyond that, throw a dart (which is basically what the Academy did last year with Thomas Vinterberg, so you never know).

Actress
Nicole Kidman-Being the Ricardos
Olivia Colman-The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga-House of Gucci
Kristen Stewart-Diana
Alana Haim-Licorice Pizza
Alternate: Penelope Cruz-Parallel Mothers

A combative and disturbed category, in which the top two women are safe, and everyone else is potentially food for the lions. Diana's chances have been spiraling in every category, including and especially this one, with one-time frontrunner Stewart barely clinging on, but I'll vote with my heart and assume she gets in. It's trendy to have Cruz in the top 5, and I'd love to see it happen, but I think Licorice Pizza love brings Haim over the top (especially since there aren't too many places to plausibly honor that film). Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye would be a stereotypically on-point choice for the Academy, as would Jennifer Hudson in Respect, both playing real people in the Academy's favorite genre (the biopic). I'm dubious about Chastain's chances, but less so about Hudson--hearing her name on Oscar morning wouldn't be a surprise.

Actor
Will Smith-King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch-The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield-Tick Tick Boom
Denzel Washington-The Tragedy of Macbeth
Leonardo Dicaprio-Don't Look Up
Alternate: Javier Bardem-Being the Ricardos

Reasonably confident about the first four slots, with the last being anyone's guess. Bardem has come perilously, unreasonably close to locking that spot up (anyone's guess why, I suppose), and it'd be smart to pick him, but I'll keep pushing the narrative that Don't Look Up's is being underestimated. If the Academy feels like they want to sit at the cool kids' table, they might spring for Nicholas Cage/Pig, Hidetoshi Nishijima/Drive My Car, or Peter Dinklage/Cyrano, but I think any of those three men will have trouble muscling past the bigger prestige choices.

Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose-West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst-The Power of the Dog
Caitrona Balfe-Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis-King Richard
Ruth Negga-Passing
Alternate: Marlee Matlin-CODA

Though I'm not entirely confident about the last three in that list, I'm even less confident in their competitors, so there you go. I almost went with a no guts/no glory pick with Meryl Streep in Don't Look Up (save us), but I figured that that film's love can (hopefully) only travel so far. Anne Dowd/Mass and Cate Blanchett/Nightmare Alley are both still plausible, certainly, but I can't help but assume that the best picture strength of the top four actresses' films (with Negga as the highbrow choice) is enough to keep this list of five set.

Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee-The Power of the Dog
Troy Kotsur-CODA
Ciaran Hinds-Belfast
Jared Leto-House of Gucci
Jesse Plemons-The Power of the Dog
Alternate: Bradley Cooper-Licorice Pizza

Ok, I came this close to yet again predicting another unlikely instance of Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) sliding in just because he's Ben Affleck, and he looks like he's been through a lot and came out the other side living his best life, but I just couldn't believe it. So instead, I swapped him last minute with Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog, who could be barreling toward a Jacki Weaver-esque coattails nomination where the entire main cast gets nominated  lI guess I should be mad that Jared Leto's Waluigi/Chefboyardee impression will get in here, but I'm just not. Cooper is a very likely choice to upset any of the bottom three I've listed. If you're looking for less obvious spoilers (and both Ciaran Hinds and Leto aren't as strong as they could be), Mike Faist/West Side Story has some real support, as does Jamie Dornan/Belfast (though there's no way that Dornan gets in without Hinds getting in as well). We'll just have to wait and see how hunky the acting branch wants this lineup to be.

Original Screenplay
Licorice Pizza
Don't Look Up
Belfast
King Richard
Being the Ricardos
Alternate: Parallel Mothers

This easily feels like the most locked category to me. Can't see any of the immediate contenders (the aforementioned Mothers, A Hero, C'mon C'mon, Mass, The French Dispatch) cracking the list without one of the top five having a hugely catastrophic morning--though King Richard's momentum has been flagging, and Being the Ricardos is dumb and bad, so that's not outside the realm of possibility.

Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
The Lost Daughter
CODA
Dune
Drive My Car
Alternate: West Side Story

It makes no sense to predict that Dune gets in here, but not director, while West Side Story does the exact opposite (obviously I should pick one to get both), but I'm banking on how tough it can be for a musical to get recognition for its screenplay, and West Side Story's chances have been looking a little wobbly of late. I had a horrible, tremulous impulse to predict The Last Duel, and almost acted on it, but in my old age I've learned a little impulse control, and will be doing my best not to speak that thought into reality.

Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
The French Dispatch
Licorice Pizza
Alternate: The Power of the Dog

Licorice Pizza feels like the kind of loving, lived-in work on a best picture nominee that seems like an obvious nominee in retrospect, even if no one predicts it. Look for Power of the Dog or Belfast to score here if they have big mornings, or The Tragedy of Macbeth, which is my pick for the obvious nominee that gets left off come nominations morning.

Costume Design
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Cyrano
The Green Knight
Alternate: West Side Story

Have I gone a bit wacky here? Maybe, but this branch likes to get a little wacky. Cyrano feels like a likely sole nominee here, and I'm desperately hoping that the costumers feel like doing something cool and rewarding The Green Knight's spectacular but little-discussed medieval duds. Maybe a mistake to leave out West Side Story here, but that movie's buzz has been disappearing like nobody's business. Look for Spencer or Nightmare Alley to be surprise-but-not-really-a-surprise nominees.

Visual Effects
Dune
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Godzilla vs. Kong
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Alternate: The Matrix Resurrections

Probably a fool's errand to bet against Matrix here, but I am a fool, and I have a ton of errands. Predicting/hoping that only one of the four Marvel films from this year gets in, though Eternals would be an easy pick. Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other finalists are Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, and Black Widow.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Dune
Cruella
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
Coming 2 America
Alternate: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Tough and arbitrary, like throwing jell-o so it lands on a ceiling fan. Only Dune really seems safe, though Cruella and House of Gucci are good bets. I'm picking Coming 2 America for this year's 'wait, what?' curveball that this category loves to throw, and am hoping that the malevolent Cabbage Patch antics of Tammy Faye will stay buried. I don't really believe Nightmare Alley gets the nom here, but honestly, I can't make a logical argument for anything else, based on the calls I've already made, so in it goes. Note: this category has also been narrowed down to a 10-film shortlist. The other finalists are West Side Story, Cyrano, The Suicide Squad, and No Time to Die.

Film Editing
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Don't Look Up
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
Alternate: Belfast

Betting that West Side Story's impressive crafts save it here, despite its diminished best picture strength, and that Belfast's slowing momentum shows itself. I desperately wanted to find a place for Tick Tick Boom in this category, but the editing branch almost never throws us surprise nominations--if it's not up for best picture, it's rarely here.

Cinematography
The Power of the Dog
Dune
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Belfast
West Side Story
Alternate: Nightmare Alley

Getting to be a similar story here: I'm not confident about West Side Story holding out in these categories, but I also don't necessarily believe that its competitors are strong enough to push past it. Is there enough love out there for Nightmare Alley or No Time to Die? Surely The Green Knight, The French Dispatch, and Spencer have all fallen by the wayside. Keep an eye on Passing, if the Academy wants to go whole hog for black and white lensing this year (joining Belfast and The Tragedy of Macbeth to make three black and white nominees, which would be the first time since....a while ago).

Original Score
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Don't Look Up
The French Dispatch
Candyman
Alternate: Encanto

Going waaaay out on a limb here to pick Candyman, but why not? It's a gorgeous and surprising score, and it already made the 15-film list of finalists in this category. Some voters are clearly listening, and if enough hear it, they'll surely include it on their ballot. I was tempted to remove The French Dispatch for something more exciting, but reminded myself that this branch is notoriously insular, and never include more than one first-time nominee per year. Since I used all my big shock energy with Candyman, I've got to stick with Dispatch/Desplat, one of their favorite composers. Still, look to Encanto, No Time to Die, or Parallel Mothers to fill its place, or Being the Ricardos if all my worst nightmares come true.

Sound
Dune
West Side Story
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
Last Night in Soho
Alternate: A Quiet Place Part 2

That Last Night in Soho call is a risk, but it showed up at the BAFTAs, and I've got a hunch. Plus, I'd been predicting that Belfast limped in on best picture strength alone, but if it's missing in film editing, then surely it misses here as well. Note: this is another category that's been narrowed down to a 10-film list. The other finalists are Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Matrix Resurrections, and Tick Tick Boom.

Original Song
"Be Alive"-King Richard
"Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)"-Respect
"Somehow You Do"-Four Good Days
"No Time to Die"-No Time to Die
"Dos Oruguitas"-Encanto
Alternate: "Just Look Up"-Don't Look Up

Honestly I've no idea in which direction to go with this category, so after spending a few minutes spinning around in circles under a blood moon, communing with the old gods, I've settled on a little chaos. Of course Diane Warren will appear for her latest crazed howl at the stars in Four Good Days, and good for her--I cherish Diane Warren's yearly opportunity to nourish herself on those sweet Oscar voter tears. Probably silly to have both Don't Look Up and Belfast missing here, but I feel fine about it.

Animated Film
Encanto
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Belle
Sing 2
Alternate: Flee

Sheer perversity to pick Sing 2 over Flee, one of the most acclaimed films of the year, but the narrative of the next three categories is whether or not Flee can score in all three, and I've decided to end the suspense early. Besides, Sing 2 has had a shockingly big box office run, and has solid word of mouth too. Look for Disney's Raya and the Last Dragon or Ron's Gone Wrong to take one of the big studio slots, or for The Summit of the Gods or Poupelle of Chimney Town to take the international slot.

International Film
Drive My Car-Japan
Flee-Denmark
A Hero-Iran
The Hand of God-Italy
Great Freedom-Austria
Alternate: The Worst Person in the World-Norway

A real embarrassment of riches in this category, with acclaimed and buzzy titles like Norway's entry, Compartment No. 6/Finland, Prayers for the Stolen/Mexico, and I'm Your Man/Germany potentially on the outside looking in, as well as spoilers like Bhutan's Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom or Panama's Plaza Catedral. I don't really feel confident in any of my picks but Drive My Car, which is probably cruising (heh) to a win. But other than that, it could be total chaos come nomination morning.

Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul
Procession
The Rescue
Flee
Attica
Alternate: Ascension

Like every year, this category is by far my weakest--in terms of how much I've seen, how much I know, and how much enthusiasm I can muster. Rooting for the good movies! Kind of hoping the Billie Eilish documentary makes it, just to see some of the stuffier types throw a chair or two about having to talk about the academy award nominated Billy Eilish doc.

And there you have it! For those playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:

The Power of the Dog-11
Dune-10
West Side Story-7
Licorice Pizza-6
Belfast-6

I am absolutely over-predicting The Power of the Dog and under-predicting Belfast, but sometimes, dreams really do come true, and sometimes those dreams have to start with me being low-key shady to Kenneth Branagh on my blog.

Now, I know it's silly verging on ridiculous to log so many words about the Oscars while I haven't talked about my own picks--and those are coming soon! Sooner than you might think! And if that sounds like a threat, it is. But for now, if I could guarantee any nomination, it'd be Drive My Car getting in anywhere (though I'd love to see a rogue best actor nomination), and if I could deny any nomination, it'd be Javier Bardem's for Being the Ricardos (though really, the less that movie scores, the better). 

And that's it! Come tomorrow morning, all of these predictions will be meaningless, and I wouldn't have it any other way. I'll be back in the morning to unwrap the nominations and see how kind or cruel Academy Santa has been. Then we can see how wrong I was (very wrong, but that's kind of the point), and which movies the Academy will send me scrambling to watch before the ceremony!

Final 2020 Oscar Predictions: Sometimes the End of a Rainbow is Just Grass, or Maybe Dirt

 

Surely, the first thing you're thinking is 'how can we still be talking the Oscars in April?', and I'm certainly right there with you--I love the Oscars more than anyone you know (I assume), and I'm a little awards-fatigued myself. But there was this little thing called The Apocalypse, and just over a year ago, the Academy assumed that adding a couple month to their eligibility period would make that go away. It didn't, surprisingly, and the extra months probably didn't do much to change nomination tallies or winner narratives (though, I suppose, ask me again about the winners on Monday), but it sure did make everyone very tired. I think part of it is that the whole world is desperate to climb out of the gunky, homebound morass of 2020, and taking a weekend to get really excited about all the movies you streamed in your bi-weekly psychotic break just isn't as exciting as it used to be. I'm not saying that the concept of awards (and movies at large) is obsolete, not by a long shot--just that everyone will breathe a sigh of relief when we can stop traipsing back to the 2020 theaters of our minds and move onto fresh new horrors like Mortal Kombat or the deluge of Marvel TV content. (The last Marvel movie to be released was Spider-Man: Far from Home in July of 2019, close to two years ago. The last time there was a two year gap between Marvel movies, George Bush was president. Imagine that. As a gentle reminder of their power, Disney will release 4 Marvel movies between July and December, and will probably also turn the oceans red, just for kicks. These are godless times.)

Point is--we all love the Oscars dearly, but it's ok to want to move past them. This is healthy and natural--but as I am neither of those things, it's time to drag my gold-plated gimp suit out of the closet and let the Oscars hurt me a little.

Now, all this lead-up isn't to say that the movies are the bad, or that the eventual winners are uninspired, or that the season has been uninteresting. In fact, this has been one of the more interesting seasons in recent memory, with a couple incredibly volatile categories, surrounding a stellar batch of movies, although they might be one of the most depressing lineups in Oscar history. (This has been underlined by (re-)watching the best picture nominees with my family, as we all settle in for whatever fresh hell the Oscars are about to unleash on us. Everyone was thrilled by Minari because, even though it's about an unhappy couple constantly on the edge of financial ruin and scared that their child is about to die, at least the maybe-dying child gets to do hijinks with his grandma.) Also, this is the first ever year that I've been able to see every nominee in every category, even the shorts. Obviously, covid has been an atrocity at every level, and we'll all be coping with the effects of it for years to come, but I can say that it's been lovely to see movies of all kinds become streaming-accessible in ways they never were before. I desperately miss theaters, like I was asked to burn my own house down and then scatter the ashes, and can't wait to get back, but I do hope that the wider streaming accessibility lasts beyond covid. My life thus far has been a narrative of not getting to see the movies I was interested in, as they would never release within 500 miles of me. And that's turned significantly for the better since I moved to where I am now, but I will eternally be for any changes that undo or circumvent the assumption that only people on the coasts watch movies.

Anyhow, long story long, I am tired but still managing to find ways to be grateful, and now let's talk about little gold men. Do note that I sometimes predict more for fun than for accuracy. There are lots of places online to help you ace your Oscar pool, but this is where we try to guess when the Academy is going to throw a shark in the water.

Best Picture
The nominees:
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

This has been Nomadland's award to lose for some months, and it still is, so I won't linger too long here. There are whispers of a Minari upset, or if early frontrunner Trial of the Chicago 7 could still win, and these aren't impossible, but my thought is a) I am skeptical that the Academy would choose no non-English language films for 91 years, and then pick Korean language films two years in a row, and b) if Trial were going to win, it would have said so during the nominations. I agree that Nomadland is looking a little shakier than it was two months ago, but nothing looks like it has the juice to muscle ahead of it.

Will Win: Nomadland
Could Win: Minari
Should Win: Sound of Metal
Should Have Been Here: First Cow

Director
The nominees:
Lee Isaac Chung-Minari
Emerald Fennell-Promising Young Woman
David Fincher-Mank
Thomas Vinterberg-Another Round
Chloe Zhao-Nomadland

Same narrative as above, but even less likely to change. It would be deeply shocking if anyone other than Zhao won here.

Will Win: Chloe Zhao-Nomadland
Could Win: Lee Isaac Chung-Minari
Should Win: Chloe Zhao-Nomadland
Should Have Been Here: Darius Marder-Sound of Metal

Actress
The nominees:
Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day-The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Vanessa Kirby-Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand-Nomadland
Carey Mulligan-Promising Young Woman

Now we get to the good stuff--this category is more open and volatile than it has been at least in my life, and arguably ever? It's top 5, anyway. Any one of these nominees could win (other than Vanessa Kirby, bless), and the kicker is that they all *have* already. Davis too the Screen Actors Guild award, Andra Day took the Golden Globe, Carey Mulligan took the Critics Choice award (and, just last night, the Indie Spirit award), and Frances McDormand took the Bafta (British Academy)--essentially, all the televised awards have gone to different women.
So how do we parse this mess? Mulligan is the favorite by a hair. She'll be a lot of people's pick, and rightly so--the biggest argument against her was that her Critics Choice win was in December and then spent the next four months losing steam, but last night's Indie Spirit victory undoes that narrative. Still, Promising Young Woman is a difficult film, and it could easily turn softer voters off--particularly since they've hardly been generous with Mulligan over the years. Viola Davis and Frances McDormand both feel like 'safe' choices, such as they are--both are acting legends doing stellar work, and have each already won (McDormand has two Oscars, in fact). Additionally, they're playing either the best picture frontrunner or against one of the year's buzziest performances (more on that in a second), so they'll certainly have reached a wide audience. If this were either of their first wins, I'd call it in the bag, but the fact that they already have an Oscar (or two) hurts their chances. Finally, Andra Day was a surprise win at the Globes, but was she really? The Academy loves nothing more than a biopic, and god help us, they love musical biopics even more. Is it ridiculous to suggest that a huge debut in Oscar's favorite genre that is one of the most recent nominated movies to be released has a big night?
I've got no idea who I'm gonna predict. I'll just start writing it out and pretend that I'll know by the time I get to the end of this sentence. (oops, didn't work, chaos reigns)

Will Win: Andra Day-The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Could Win: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
(real dummy move not even having Mulligan in the top 2, but here we go)
Should Win: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Should Have Been Here: Sidney Flanigan-Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Actor
The nominees:
Riz Ahmed-Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins-The Father
Gary Oldman-Mank
Steven Yeun-Minari

Less hand-wringing to be done here, as the chance to give an emotional send-off to much-loved actor after his tragically young passing for a role that showed a new side of his talent is just too tempting to pass up. Both Ahmed/Sound of Metal and Hopkins/The Father have been coming on awfully strong in the past few months (Hopkins took the Bafta, Ahmed just beat Boseman to the Indie Spirit award), but it's fairly difficult to imagine Boseman losing this. Not impossible, certainly, but real damn difficult.

Will Win: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Could Win: Anthony Hopkins-The Father
Should Win: Riz Ahmed-Sound of Metal
Should Have Been Here: Delroy Lindo-Da 5 Bloods

Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Maria Bakalova-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close-Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman-The Father
Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Youn Yuh-Jung-Minari

This category promised real chaos at the beginning of season, and again with nominations, the shadow of a Close/Colman heavy metal cage re-match dancing in our hearts, or, barring that, Bakalova bringing Borat its first gold statue, a truly bonkers concept (not that the performance isn't great--it's stellar, and deserves to be here, but the content and the way the movie was made alone make this one of the weirder Oscar nominations in recent memory). And all of that was lovely to imagine, easy to fall in love with, but, it turns out, a little out of reach, as power-grandma Youn stepped into the ring and kicked everyone else into space. I do think she's more vulnerable than any of the other frontrunners, but it still feels safe to call a Minari victory here, arguably the only place it can win.
(Fun fact: if Close loses this, she'll tie with Peter O'Toole for most nominations without a win, each racking up 8 over the course of their careers.)

Will Win: Youn Yuh-Jung-Minari
Could Win: Glenn Close-Hillbilly Elegy
Should Win: Maria Bakalova-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Should Have Been Here: Miranda Hart-Emma

Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen-The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr.-One Night in Miami
Paul Raci-Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield-Judas and the Black Messiah

Another category that promised a little wildness at the beginning that's since found gentler pastures. Look, I don't know how you feel about category fraud (the idea that lead roles campaign as supporting because they'll have an easier time winning there), and I know it's a touchy subject with this particular category/winner, but I'm gonna sidestep all that and say that Kaluuya will almost definitely win for his great work in Judas and the Black Messiah. I suppose there's a last gasp question of a Baron Cohen upset, or maybe a Raci one (though I think that's more my fantasy than an actual possibility), but Kaluuya probably has this locked down.

Will Win: Paul Raci-Sound of Metal (screw it, I'm voting with my heart)
Could Win: Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah
Should Win: Paul Raci-Sound of Metal
Should Have Been Here: Aldis Hodge-One Night in Miami

Original Screenplay
The nominees:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Super exciting category--a three-way battle between former frontrunner Chicago 7, current spoiler Minari, and original heavyweight Promising Young Woman. There's an argument that this is the easiest or most appropriate place to recognize any of these films, with Chicago taking the slight advantage, as the other two films have obvious acting bids they hope to capitalize on. Does Sorkin's fame and clout carry the day for Chicago? Does Promising Young Woman's flashiness help it over the finish line? Or does Minari ride a wave of goodwill to the finish line? If either Minari or Chicago does win here, look out for it in best picture. I'm also curious if the closeness of this race opens it up to the other nominees. Do we get a shocker Judas or Metal win? Probably not, but it's not unthinkable.

Will Win: Promising Young Woman
Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should Win: Sound of Metal (sorry everyone, I just really liked this movie, ok)
Should Have Been Here: Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger

I want to pretend there's no intrigue here, but is that the case? Nomadland looks like it has this sewn up, but The Father has been gaining a ton of steam recently, and you could argue against Nomadland as an achievement in visuals/perceived naturalism than it is in dialogue or narrative structure, whereas The Father exists to flex its muscles in just those ways. I don't think I'm convinced enough to predict an upset, but I'll probably regret it.

Will Win: Nomadland (came *this* close to changing, but nope, not convinced)
Could Win: The Father
Should Win: Nomadland
Should Have Been Here: First Cow

Production Design
The nominees:
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Tenet

A quiet, respectable, vaguely lackluster category. Mank probably takes it on virtue of having the 'most' and being Hollywood-centric, while Ma Rainey could swoop in by virtue of being the most Ma Rainey, whose primary role this season has been swooping, and I suppose The Father could capitalize on the last-second love, but it's also set entirely in a couple apartments--as innovatively as it uses its design, it's not the kind of work the Academy recognizes here.

Will Win: Mank
Could Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Should Win: News of the World
Should Have Been Here: Promising Young Woman

Costume Design
The nominees:
Emma
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Pinocchio

Probably an easy win for Ma Rainey's 89-year old Ann Roth. Emma looks to play spoiler if the Academy is looking to reward flamboyance.

Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Could Win: Emma
Should Win: Emma
Should Have Been Here: Ammonite

Visual Effects
The nominees:
Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet

A wacky little category in a year largely absent of the big blockbusters it loves. So, as basically the only big summer blockbuster to come out last year--and from Christopher Nolan, no less, whose films frequently triumph here--look to Tenet to win this in a backwards walk.

Will Win: Tenet
Could Win: The One and Only Ivan
Should Win: Tenet
Should Have Been Here: Welcome to Chechnya

Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio

Another instance of Ma Rainey fighting off a scrappy competitor, this time the questionable looks in Hillbilly Elegy. It's so tempting to go for a Hillbilly party here, but I don't think this happens without Close winning in Supporting Actress, and Ma Rainey's got a ton of strength in these below the line categories. That said, if Hillbilly *does* win, cast a weary eye toward that Supporting Actress race.

Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Could Win: Hillbilly Elegy
Should Win: Pinocchio
Should Have Been Here: Possessor

Film Editing
The nominees:
The Father
Promising Young Woman
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Here we are, another big ol fight-y category, with only Promising Young Woman seeming out of the running. Smart money says this is a duel between Sound of Metal and The Trial of the Chicago 7, Metal's unfussy pacing and repeating structures against Trial's all-in style of cutting the whole movie like it's an action scene. Divide how much the Academy warms to either approach by both movies' Best Picture power, and there you go. Since the two of them are so close, it's totally plausible that Nomadland goes on a bit of a spree on its way to winning the big prizes, or that The Father's late-breaking wave pays dividends here. Really, any of these four could take it and I wouldn't bat an eye.

Will Win: Sound of Metal
Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should Win: Sound of Metal
Should Have Been Here: Bloody Nose, Empty Pockets

Cinematography
The nominees:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7

A solid, handsome little category (with the exception of Chicago 7--god, its presence here traumatizes me anew) without much fight in it. There's a vague chance that Mank's black and white cinematography carries the day, but it's hard for anyone to argue against Nomadland taking the crown here.

Will Win: Nomadland
Could Win: Mank
Should Win: Nomadland
Should Have Been Here: Vitalina Varela

Original Score
The nominees:
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul

If Minari manages to unseat Soul here, look for it to go on a major run. Otherwise, Soul walks away with this and we'll all have to keep holding our breath a little longer.

Will Win: Soul
Could Win: Minari
Should Win: Soul
Should Have Been Here: Tenet

Sound
The nominees:
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal

This has to go to Sound of Metal--it's right there in the title. I suppose Mank's 10 nomination-tally could mean that it demands a couple wins, and here is as good a place as any, but it's tough to imagine it being able to upend Sound of Metal's best chance at recognition, and Soul has an argument as both an animated film and a movie about music, but only one animated movie has won an Oscar for its sound before (The Incredibles in 2004).

Will Win: Sound of Metal
Could Win: Soul
Should Win: Sound of Metal
Should Have Been Here: The Invisible Man

Original Song
The nominees:
"Fight for You"-Judas and the Black Messiah
"Hear My Voice"-The Trial of the Chicago 7
"Husavik"-Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
"Io Si"-The Life Ahead
"Speak Now"-One Night in Miami

By turns dull and fantastic, just like this category is meant to be! Nothing would melt my shriveled frozen heart than seeing Diane Warren,  perennial Oscar chanteuse, kaiju in hiding, and that bitch, finally winning her Oscar at long last for the delightful caterwauling "Io Si." My heart would experience a similar level of climate change if "Husavik," the best ironic/unironic bop of the year, managed a win (which I could then pretend would go to Rachel McAdams). The rest of the options are a little bleaker, and also probably more likely to actually happen. "Speak Now" is solid, and is a good way to honor Regina King's film, as well as getting to give an Oscar to Hamilton by association, which I have to assume is something that the Academy has been doodling about. The others are less likely, but watch them give it to "Hear My Voice" and then hear my voice as I shoot into the heavens on pure rage alone.

Will Win: "Speak Now"-One Night in Miami
Could Win: "Io Si"-The Life Ahead
Should Win: "Husavik"-Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Should Have Been Here: "Your Name Engraved Herein"-Your Name Engraved Herein

Animated Film
The nominees:
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

Very little intrigue here--Soul wins this, no contest. Which, while it's a lovely movie, is a bit of a shame. Pixar will have won 11 out of the 20 Oscars ever given in this category. And Pixar is great! But it's not the only game in town.

Will Win: Soul
Could Win: Wolfwalkers
Should Win: Wolfwalkers
Should Have Been Here: Ride Your Wave

International Film
The nominees: 
Another Round-Denmark
Better Days-Hong Kong
Collective-Romania
The Man Who Sold His Skin-Tunisia
Quo Vadis, Aida?-Bosnia and Herzegovina

Again, a total steamroller category, this time benefitting apparent masterwork Another Round. (Sorry y'all, I'm sure this movie is actually great, but boy do I hate it and am salty that the world isn't exactly what I demand it should be.)

Will Win: Another Round-Denmark
Could Win: Quo Vadis, Aida?-Bosnia and Herzegovina
Should Win: Quo Vadis, Aida?-Bosnia and Herzegovina
Should Have Been Here: La Llorona-Guatemala

Documentary Feature
The nominees:
Crip Camp
Collective
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time

Last September, a little film (ostensibly) about an octopus dropped on netflix with nary a splash, but people loved it, and it's ridden that wave all the way to the Oscar, drowning its competitors with its own popularity. Sunday night, it'll wash onto the stage, in hopes of making some bad water puns during the speech, I assume. Look, I won't pretend that all of the other movies in this category aren't superior (that Time and Collective, in particular, will lose to the sad boy octopus movie is...difficult), but I can't wait to watch the guy's speech go two minutes too long and then he has to dash back onstage because he forgot to thank the octopus.

And there's that! I've got Nomadland as the biggest winner of the night with four wins, but I'm expecting the wealth to get spread fairly evenly. We'll see how it goes! I feel somehow both much more and much less confident about my predictions than I normally do, which, I suppose, is also how I feel about my life too. It's a mystery!

Oscar Nominations: You know what that was? ...A start.

(source)

 Have you ever been stuck in a solid gold washing machine? And it's kind of nice, cuz like hey, solid gold, but at the same time you're still stuck in a washing machine. This, improbably, is how I feel about the nominations today. Some wonderful things, some things make me furious, and no way to separate the two as we all marinate together in our own golden-plated tragedy. But honestly, things could have been much worse: no egregiously terrible movies in best picture (just a few mediocre ones)! No Jared Leto! And realistically, they couldn't have been much better, so we'll take what we can get. This year is an interesting contrast from last year, as well. Last year we had four movies with at least 10 nominations (the all-time record for that many movies hitting double digits in one year), showing how little the Academy shopped around. This year, however, we have one movie with 10 nominations and then a world-ending seven-way tie for second place, each with 6 nominations. I haven't done the research, but I have to assume this is the biggest ever tie for second most nominated film, and six nominations is an awfully low number to hold that place. (2005 is the only of the past 20-25 years I can think of that matches that (where Brokeback Mountain held the pole position with 8, and Good Night and Good Luck and Crash tied for second with six. But even low-nomination years like 2006 and 2007 had movies in first/second place with 8 and 7 nominations.) Anyway, the statistics point to an extremely diffuse year. No one could decide on what they loved, so they went ahead and loved almost everything. 

So what happened? Let's take a look. I'll put an asterisk next to the nominees I predicted correctly, but, uh, there will not be a huge number of asterisks this year. (My silliness got in the way of my prudence, as per usual.)

Best Picture
The Father*
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank*
Minari*
Nomadland*
Promising Young Woman*
Sound of Metal*
The Trial of the Chicago 7*

Absolutely thrilled for Sound of Metal, which had about as big a morning as it possibly could have, and I think that this lineup is generally strong--I don't love Trial or Mank, but you can't have everything.  Nomadland/Metal//Minari/Promising Young Woman are all great choices, and Judas is strong as well. I predicted yesterday that the Judas and the Black Messiah momentum was being exaggerated, and goodness was I wrong. A solid lineup, though it's lowkey shocking to see One Night in Miami miss.

Early winner prediction: Nomadland

Director
Lee Isaac Chung-Minari*
Emerald Fennell-Promising Young Woman*
David Fincher-Mank*
Thomas Vinterberg-Another Round
Chloe Zhao-Nomadland*

Vinterberg is obviously the huge surprise here--I'd read a few people catching some Cold War/Pawlikowski vibes, but I didn't buy it. And I know people are celebrating this choice, but if I'm being honest, I kind of hate Another Round, so I'll stick myself and glower at everyone. Worth pointing out that this is the first ever year with two women in this category (and they now bring the final tally of women nominees here up to 7, meaning this year contains about 30% of all women every nominated for best director). Still, again, a solid lineup, though this Vinterberg nomination, coupled with last year's crime against decency/Todd Phillips for Joker nom, it's safe to say that the best way to score an unlikely best director nod is to get a middle-aged white man to dance around in public for your movie.

Early winner prediction: Chloe Zhao-Nomadland

Actress
Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*
Andray Day-The United States vs. Billie Holliday*
Vanessa Kirby-Pieces of a Woman*
Frances McDormand-Nomadland*
Carey Mulligan-Promising Young Woman*

This category zigged where we expected it to zig, and zagged where we expected it to do what we expected it to do, so here we are. Still, though the nominations were written on the wall some months ago, I don't want to undersell how volatile this category could be still. Almost any of these women could win (except Kirby)--it'll be neat to see how the narratives play out in the next month.

Early winner prediction: Carey Mulligan-Promising Young Woman

Actor
Riz Ahmed-Sound of Metal*
Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*
Anthony Hopkins-The Father*
Gary Oldman-Mank
Steven Yeun-Minari

What an all-time bummer that we've got another lackadaisical Oldman campaign gently floating him into this category, like a baby's diaper drifting down the Mississippi. Otherwise, this is a stellar lineup. Extremely thrilled for Ahmed and Yeun, who are both fantastic and due, and for Boseman to get his  recognition. Yeun becomes the first Asian-American ever nominated in this category.

Early winner prediction: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm*
Glenn Close-Hillbilly Elegy*
Olivia Colman-The Father*
Amanda Seyfried-Mank*
Youn Yuh-jung-Minari*

Another category that played out as expected, but from here on out it's fireworks, nothing but fireworks. Anyone could win--and whereas in best actress, while that's technically true, someone's out ahead, every one of these women has about as good a shot as the others (...well, maybe not dear, blesséd Amanda Seyfried, for whom I am elated but Is probably running from 5th place). I've mentioned this before, but the only thing funnier than Glenn Close's storied and prestigious career culminating with a win for Hillbilly-ass Elegy is Olivia Colman beating to an Oscar twice in three years.

Early winner prediction: Glenn Close-Hillbilly Elegy

Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen-The Trial of the Chicago 7*
Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah*
Leslie Odom Jr.-One Night in Miami*
Paul Raci-Sound of Metal*
Lakeith Stanfield-Judas and the Black Messiah*

I don't think anyone saw that Lakeith Stanfield nomination coming at all. It shows how strong Judas and the Black Messiah's energy is right now--we'll see how far that will carry it over the next month. Also maybe a very shady move on the Academy's part? One way to sidestep the 'Daniel Kaluuya is a leading role!' outcry online is to put literally everyone in the movie into supporting. Why not, I guess? Also, nothing made me punch the air in joy this morning more than hearing Raci's name called out. So, so deserving, and it wasn't at all guaranteed. Interesting note: if Chadwick Boseman had been nominated here for Da 5 Bloods (something I had predicted), he would have become the only actor other than James Dean to receive two posthumous nominations. As he didn't, James Dean keeps his record, which has stood for 65 years.
It's worth taking a moment to note the diversity in this year's nominations. There are 6 black actors nominated, which is a record, as well as three other people of color, showing that, for one year at least, the Academy found a way its general anti-Asian bias in the acting categories. While this is all great, I'm not sure we should pat the Academy's back too hard, in that they tend vote for what's in front of them. 2020's prestige movie narrative was dominated by films by and about people of color, as well as films directed by women, and that's reflected (to some extent) in these nominations. But it's all too easy to forget last year, in which those same kinds of films were just as available, but largely ignored in favor of safer choices. Or we can think back to 2018, when Green Book won best picture. Point being, we can applaud the Academy for trying to change how they view and shape the film community while still being clear-eyed about the fact that these nominations might have gone very differently if the Academy had had more options.

Early winner prediction: Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah

Original Screenplay
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari*
Promising Young Woman*
Sound of Metal*
The Trial of the Chicago 7*

The runaway narrative of this morning/the past couple weeks of Oscar campaign has got to be the sleeper success of Sound of Metal and Judas and the Black Messiah, which both ended up punching for over what their weight class seemed to be. And what a good-looking category it is! Shame the (arguably) least interesting entry will take it all.

Early winner prediction: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Adapted Screenplay
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm*
The Father*
Nomadland*
One Night in Miami*
The White Tiger

Mostly as expected. I should have seen The White Tiger coming in this category, but went with my heart/First Cow (which went home empty-handed this morning--what movies are these voters watching?). While my very silly 'Borat for best picture' narrative didn't pan out (which is really for the best), it did hit here, showing that it did have some real strength coming in.

Early winner prediction: Nomadland

Production Design
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*
Mank*
News of the World*
Tenet

It wouldn't be an Oscar year without a Chris Nolan movie showing up more times than you want it! No, that's unfair--Tenet did underperform, and I'd have been happy to see it show up in other categories. I just like celebrating Christopher Nolan's failures, and am still mad about the fact that he encouraged us all to go die/spread the plague in theaters last summer just so we could see this very stupid movie.

Early winner prediction: Mank

Costume Design
Emma*
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*
Mank*
Mulan*
Pinocchio

Mulan keeps the Disney live-action remake tradition of getting a nomination for costumes so Disney can keep calling them Oscar-Nominated Classics (TM). Intrigued and vaguely unsettled by Pinocchio. I haven't seen the movie, and I'm sure it's very deserving, but hot damn, how many people watched this puppet movie without telling me.

Early winner prediction: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Visual Effects
Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky*
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan*
Tenet*

Feels atrocious on so many levels that Welcome to Chechnya's work was left out in favor of Mulan's, I dunno, flappy digital chicken. I did smile seeing Love and Monsters here, though. The effects are a little jenky, but they're a treat, and the film itself is lovely. Glad it got something that might widen its fanbase a little, or at least give it a reason not to fade into dust forever.

Early winner prediction: Tenet

Makeup and Hairstyling
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy*
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*
Mank
Pinocchio*

Again with the uncanny puppet, though I've heard that the makeup really is staggering, so no complaints here. It's just fun to kick a puppet while it's (not) down. Tickled that Hillbilly Elegy's legitimately ridiculous work is cited here, which means that it'll probably win.

Early winner prediction: Hillbilly Elegy

Film Editing
The Father
Nomadland*
Promising Young Woman*
Sound of Metal*
The Trial of the Chicago 7*

The Father pops up again--another late-breaking success story that didn't have to go as hard as it did. Would love the opportunity to see it (without driving to an AMC 30 miles away or whatever and then stewing in that sweet maskless Southern air), but we'll have to wait for now. Fun fact--no movie, at least since the Academy firmed up their categories at the end of the 30s/beginning of the 40s, has ever won best picture without being nominated for at least three of the following categories: directing, writing, any acting, and film editing. Being nominated for all four is best, but not mandatory, but if you can't get at least three, you can't win (or would have to take an unprecedent win). This year, only Nomadland and Promising Young Woman are up in all four, making them your statistical frontrunners. Sound of Metal, The Father, and Trial of the Chicago 7 each are only missing director, while Minari is only missing film editing. ...Then again, statistics aren't going to play too much of a role this year, as Nomadland probably already has the big win all sewn up.

Early winner prediction: Sound of Metal

Cinematography
Judas and the Black Messiah
News of the World*
Nomadland*
Mank*
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Absolutely liiiiviiid that Trial of the Chicago 7 scored here, but what can you do? But seriously, show me someone who watches that movie and First Cow, Minari, Tenet, or any of the dozens of less plausible candidates and then decides that Trial is the prettier movie, and I'll show you someone who needs to have spiders put in their lunchbox.

Early winner prediction: Nomadland

Original Score
Da 5 Bloods
Mank*
Minari*
News of the World*
Soul*

Somewhat surprising to see Da 5 Bloods show up here, as it's the only nomination it managed this morning, and was hardly the likeliest place for it to score. Worth pointing out that Da 5 Bloods getting in meant leaving The Midnight Sky out in the old, and thank goodness for that! It's got to be one of the worst studio scores to come along in some time--shocking, in that light, that they managed to not nominate it. Kind of a shame that now they can't have Nick Jonas to play some wacky xylophone cues on stage in tribute to this movie though.

Early winner prediction: Soul

Sound
Greyhound
Mank*
News of the World*
Soul
Sound of Metal*

Should have seen Soul coming from a mile away. It's got music! Animation! Action sequences! So many things that this branch loves. Also, I guess this means I have to try and watch Greyhound now.

Early winner prediction: Sound of Metal

Original Song
"Fight for You"-Judas and the Black Messiah*
"Hear My Voice"-The Trial of the Chicago 7
"Husavik"-Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga*
"Io si"-The Life Behind*
"Speak Now"-One Night in Miami*

A somewhat dire referendum on this category that three out of five nominees are vaguely worded inspirational ballads that play over the credits. Nothing against those songs, per se, just that, despite the fixes they've tried with this category in the past few years, it's still one that only begrudgingly looks at songwriting as an art that contributes to filmmaking, and even then, only under duress. Still, I'm thrilled for "Husavik," and cannot wait to see Diane Warren manifest from a ball of screaming white light over zoom. (Honestly, I love Diane Warren, I love "Io si," and I just want to get her that Oscar. Remember when she almost won with Lady Gaga for "Til It Happens to You" and then lost to Sam Smith? Why have we not burned the world down yet)

Early winner prediction: "Speak Now"-One Night in Miami

Animated Film
Onward*
Over the Moon*
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul*
Wolfwalkers*

As suspected, they ended up avoiding the smaller international releases this year, though Wolfwalkers and Farmageddon get to retain their overseas cred. Soul's gonna take this in a walk, but it is a real shame that Wolfwalkers doesn't have more of a chance. Maybe Cartoon Saloon, the Irish studio behind Wolfwalkers that has been churning out astounding, eye-popping work for over a decade with nary an Oscar to show for it, can team up with Diane Warren to destroy LA over zoom.

Early winner prediction: Soul

International Feature
Another Round-Denmark*
Better Days-Hong Kong
Collective-Romania*
The Man Who Sold His Skin-Tunisia
Quo Vadis, Aida?-Bosnia and Herzegovina*

Somehow, improbably, shockingly, this is Romania's first nomination, despite it being a hotbed of new and exciting film activity for more than two decades now. Heck, they changed the rules for this category after 2007 when Romania's 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days missed the final cut, and it's still taken this long to get Romania into the top 5. Better late than never, I suppose, but also better when it's supposed to happen than 14 years later.

Early winner prediction: Another Round-Denmark

Documentary Feature
Collective*
Crip Camp*
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher*
Time*

My Octopus Teacher hunch payed off, much to my own dismay. Something of a drab display here. Plenty of good (or even very good) movies, but it still feels like a let-down, with so many important, acclaimed, and/or strange movies left on the wayside. Interesting note: last year, we made a lot of noise about Honeyland being the first movie ever nominated for both international feature and documentary feature, and then Collective goes ahead and pulls the same trick the very next year. 

Early winner prediction: Time

Of the non-animated, international, or documentary nominees, I've seen most of what's nominated, missing only The Father, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, The White Tiger, Pinocchio, The One and Only Ivan, and Greyhound, all of which are pretty accessible (give or take Ivan and Greyhound, but that's what free trials are for). As for the tougher to cover categories, I'm still missing the majority: Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Better Days, The Man Who Sold His Skin, Quo Vadis, Aida?, The Mole Agent, and My Octopus Teacher. These are mostly accessible, though The Man Who Sold His Skin and Quo Vadis, Aidia? might prove troublesome. 

Predictions-wise, I didn't do as poorly as I originally though. I only got actress, supporting actress, and supporting actor totally right, but also didn't totally fail anywhere (I got at least 3 or 4 correct in every category). 

For those counting at home, here' a list of the most nominated movies:

1. Mank-10 (despite it clearly underperforming)

And then a six-way tie for second place, organized by a vague order of what categories are most important in my head:

2. Minari-6
3. Nomadland-6
4. The Father-6
5. Sound of Metal-6
6. Judas and the Black Messiah-6
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7-6
8. Promising Young Woman-5
9. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom-5
10. News of the World-4

And here's a few movies that weren't nominated for anything: First Cow, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Dick Johnson is Dead, The Mauritanian, Bacurau, The Invisible Man, Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar, Relic, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, Wonder Woman 1984, Birds of Prey, The Forty-Year-Old Version, La Llorona, The Assistant, Miss Juneteenth, Bloody Nose, Empty Pockets, Welcome to Chechnya, Palm Springs.

You win some, you lose some. 

And there's another year sorted! How did you react? Which nominations are great? Which are awful? What's missing?
I will say that every year, no matter how good or bad the nominations are, I still love and have fun with the Oscars. Every year, no matter what, I have trouble sleeping through the night before Oscar nominations, like a kid before Christmas. (This year, I managed to sleep until 5.00 before saying 'that'll do' and starting my day.) It's silly and it's trash, but it's my silly trash, and I adore it.

Oscar Predictions 2020: And the Waters (kind of) Receded

 

(source)

Look at us indeed. One year ago, back when the end of the world seemed fresh and scary, rather than something you have to do on the way to your outdoor spin class, the future of the Oscars seemed dire, and only got direr (more dire?) (real dumb and bad) as the year continued. How do we have Oscars in a year when movies disappear? Is there a point to framing cinematic excellence (a terrible word as is) for cinematic releases when everyone watched all of them on Netflix, one eye on their phone? How can we possibly have an awards ceremony where everyone gathers in one place?

Well, that was last March. We were young and unversed in the art of half-assing your way through a global crisis. The answers to the question above proved, if not easy, then at least doable. Movies went online! Everything was fine (except for everything that wasn't, which was most everything)! Awards ceremonies on zoom work fine! In fact, in a few ways they're better--seeing someone on a stage is great, but seeing them accept an award surrounded by their family, all crying happy tears, and then they have to pick up their cat, is something else. Point is, the Oscars are going to do what they always do: celebrate filmmaking by finding a whole host of milquetoast movies to applaud. (Who's ready to see another Oscar nomination for Jared Leto? Drench me, Lucifer!)

Despite the circumstances, the nominations we're looking at for tomorrow will probably no stranger or more upsetting than usual. The last Oscar ceremony was on February 9th, 2020, and the coming season will end at the Dolby Theater/in Chloe Zhao's living room on April 25th, which means that we find ourselves in the second longest Oscar season of all time. (Before 1933, Oscar years went from summer to summer, so the first ceremony celebrated 1928-29, the next 1929-30, etc. This was changed for the 1933 Oscars, which saw a gargantuan 17-month Oscar year from August of 1932 to March of 1933.) (I suppose both this year and the 32/33 season are dwarfed by the first Oscar season, which stretched from the invention of fire to 1927, and resulted in a shocking zero nominations for anyone.) Given the extra-long year, you'd be forgiven for thinking that pure chaos was about to descend on the Oscars, and we'd all love to believe it, but it looks as though the extra time has just given the nominations a little more time to solidify. Don't get me wrong, we're still primed for a little weirdness, and I desperately hope that some Academy members decided to cry havok and change their zoom backgrounds to the dogs of war, but we'll see. At the very least, it looks like we'll get mostly mediocre to good films up for the major awards, which is a privilege for which we should all be thankful (I will never, never get over 2018's Green Book/Bohemian Rhapsody/Vice perfect storm of horrors.) I think this is the first year in...3 years, maybe? that I'm not predicting one of my 5 least favorite movies of the year to be nominated for best picture. Truly, nature is healing. So let's see what ugly scars remain on Oscar's shiny little body after we pull the bandages off.

As is now tradition, I'm going to dump all of my predictions at once in a great unholy pile. Bear in mind that I try to predict for fun as much as for accuracy--there are places on the internet to go if you want mathematical precision, but all I've got to offer you is burning dumpsters and a can-do attitude. It's always more funny to be silly, and there's nothing I want more from my life than silliness.

(note: all predictions are ranked in order of likelihood--so the first movie is the most likely, and so on from there.)

Best Picture
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Mank
One Night in Miami
The Father
Sound of Metal
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Alternate: Judas and the Black Messiah

Well, I promised you silliness, so I've gone ahead and started with a whole heaping dollop of it. The first six film (Nomandland through One Night...) are presumably locks, though I've heard some whispers of Mank's flagging buzz causing it to miss out here. The Father is a risk, but I've heard enough people impressed about it that I'll include it, even if no one has seen it, and Sound of Metal has been building enough steam that I feel good about its chances (even if it's just because I want it to happen). Which leads us to a whole bevy of films to either fill the last slot or overtake one of the weaker films I'm predicting. Judas and The Black Messiah has a ton of momentum right now, and is probably the smart choice (even over Sound of Metal), but I've got a hunch. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, which once looked like a thoroughbred, now seems to be grasping at whatever it can. It could still appear here, but don't count on it. Critical favorites like Da 5 Bloods and First Cow could theoretically still surprise, as could The Mauritanian, which is another late-breaking movie with momentum. But my silly pick is for Borat to break through. It's got lots of heat in other categories, and it's been a part of the conversation for months, which means that Academy members have been side-eying their Borat screeners for months. Plus, it's fits the moment politically, and its Rudy Guliani moment made a whole lot of noise. Most people are predicting that Judas will be the 'political' nominee (a somewhat belittling slot for a strong movie, but hey), but I can't help but feel like the Academy's 'political' moment will manifest itself as replacing a furious BLM/racial inequity and injustice movie with a 'boy, Republicans suck' movie (I think there's more to Borat than that, but whatever).  We'll see! Come lavish me, chaos hounds!

Director
Chloe Zhao-Nomadland
Aaron Sorkin-The Trial of the Chicago 7
Lee Isaac Chung-Minari
David Fincher-Mank
Emerald Fennell-Promising Young Woman
Alternate: Regina King-One Night in Miami

Lots of potential for movement. I'm only really confident about Zhao, although is also probably locked in. Beyond that, everyone has arguments against them. Mank has run out of steam, the Academy can be strange and standoffish with cinema from Asia/Asians in general, which might hurt Minari, even though it seems like an across the board threat. Fennell is probably safer than I have her now, given the popularity of her movie, and how fiercely, visibly directed it is. King is a safe choice, and could edge someone out by virtue of that alone, and Spike Lee could always surprise, if they feel like making up for past snubs. Look for Florian Zeller/The Father, Darius Marder/Sound of Metal, and/or Shaka King/Judas and the Black Messiah if any of their films have a bigger morning than I'm expecting.

Actress
Frances McDormand-Nomadland
Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Carey Mulligan-Promising Young Woman
Andra Day-The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Vanessa Kirby-Pieces of a Woman
Alternate: Yeri Han-Minari

This category feels more locked than any other to me. People have been talking about how Vanessa Kirby's doesn't have enough voters behind it, but I don't buy it, and even if I did, I don't think any of her competitors can yield enough passion to give her the boot. Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead? Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy? None of these movies have had great seasons, so I'll pick a surprise Han nod as a spoiler.

Actor
Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins-The Father
Riz Ahmed-Sound of Metal
Steven Yeun-Minari
Ben Affleck-The Way Back
Alternate: Gary Oldman-Mank

The first four are probably safe (though say a prayer for Steven Yeun, despite his film's strength--there have been fewer than 15 Asian actors ever nominated in any acting category, and Yeun would be the first Asian-American ever nominated in this category). The last spot is a total free-for-all, so I've decided to swing for the fences and predict that Ben Affleck's attempts at a career renaissance pay off. Oldman's a much likelier pick, but I feel like the Mank fatigue, and the performance itself, will keep it out of the top 5. Look for Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods, Tahar Rahim/The Mauritanian, or even Mads Mikkelsen/Another Round as surprises.

Supporting Actress
Olivia Colman-The Father
Youn Yuh-jung-Minari
Maria Bakalova-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Glenn Close-Hillbilly Elegy
Alternate: Dominique Fishback-Judas and the Black Messiah

An absolutely bonkers category, in that none of the women here are locked, and any combination of seven woman wouldn't surprise me (throw in Jodie Foster/The Mauritanian to complete the set). It feels foolish not to predict Fishback, but I'm betting that the 'get Close an Oscar' furor is enough to carry her over the top for a ...dubious film and performance. And we haven't even discussed who's going to win (the answer, again, is literally any of these seven women)! What a wild year for this category.

Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah
Sacha Baron Cohen-The Trial of the Chicago 7
Leslie Odom Jr.-One Night in Miami
Chadwick Boseman-Da 5 Bloods
Paul Raci-Sound of Metal
Alternate: David Strathairn-Nomadland

Another category I feel pretty confident about, though Boseman might be vulnerable (how far does the posthumous honoring go), as does Raci (not particularly famous, in a small-ish role in a film that may or may not have a big morning). Still, I'm not convinced by the strength of any of their competitors, though Strathairn and the pint-sized Alan Kim from Minari have the best chance. I'm trying not to speak anything good into the world for Jared Leto, so instead of discussing his Oscar chances here, I'll just imagine him getting chased by lions.

Original Screenplay
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Mank
Sound of Metal
Alternate: Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Almost decided to go for Never Rarely as a surprise nominee, but ultimately decided that I couldn't have Sound of Metal as a best picture nominee and still predict that it doesn't get in here. Mank is still weak, but it feels 'writerly' enough to get a pass. Look for Judas and the Black Messiah to appear here if it's going to make a play for best picture, and look for Palm Springs as a huge surprise that doesn't look that surprising in retrospect.

Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Father
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
First Cow
Alternate: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Very irresponsible for me to have First Cow over Ma Rainey or The White Tiger, but what am I if not irresponsible? Borat is hardly guaranteed, but again, I couldn't predict it for best picture and then not predict it here. 

Production Design
Mank
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mulan
Alternate: The Father

Not feeling at all confident about this category, but it feels like it's primed for a bunch of surprises that I don't see right now. Look to Tenet or The Midnight Sky for genre nods, or Emma or The Personal History of David Copperfield if they're feeling period. Beyond that...? We'll see--it really does feel like there's an obvious surprise hovering just out of reach.

Costume Design
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Emma
Mulan
Mank
The Glorias
Alternate: The Personal History of David Copperfield

Also not too confident about this one, but you never know. The Glorias is a somewhat left-field pick, but literally every movie Julie Taymor has ever made has been nominated in this category, so why stop now? Ammonite or Promising Young Woman would be lovely choices to upset, and News of the World or Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey could sneak up on us.

Visual Effects
Tenet
The Midnight Sky
Mank
The One and Only Ivan
Welcome to Chechnya
Alternate: Mulan

Swapped out Mulan as a last-second whim, but it feels right. Chechnya's a risk, and would be the first documentary ever nominated in this category, but we can dream, can't we? Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other finalists are Birds of Prey, Love and Monsters, Soul, and Bloodshot.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Hillbilly Elegy
Pinnochio
Birds of Prey
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Alternate: Mank

Another chaotic category, so more darts thrown at the poor beleaguered wall. Pinnochio may be a little-seen Italian movie, but its prosthetic work is apparently phenomenal, so I feel like it's safe here (or as safe as any Italian movie about prosthetic puppet faces can be, for anyone). Mank and Emma feel like smarter guesses to me, but Jingle Jangle keeps showing up at industry awards, on longlists, etc.--people are clearly watching it, and I think it can capitalize on that at least somewhere. Also banking on this category/Birds of Prey to give the Academy its semiannual chance to be like 'we nominated a batman, we're not a regular Academy, we're a cool Academy.' Note: this category has also been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other finalists are The Little Things, The Glorias, and One Night in Miami.

Film Editing
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland
Minari
Mank
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
Alternate: Mank

Nothing revelatory here--this category is the notoriously bound to best picture, so I've taken the frontrunners and added a movie that's got some snazzier editing. Mank would be an obvious pick for an upset here, and they could go for Tenet/The Father if they're feeling wacky, or Judas and the Black Messiah if it's got more juice than I'm predicting it to have. 

Cinematography
Nomadland
Mank
News of the World
Tenet
First Cow
Alternate: Judas and the Black Messiah

Three locks and a free for all for the final two spots, so I opted for chaos again. Desperately hoping that Trial of the Chicago 7 doesn't show up here, despite its many threats to that effect. Also hoping for a wacky surprise (like Cherry at the American Society of Cinematographers awards, but better). First Cow would already be that, kind of, but let's dream even bigger! I'm No Longer Here! Possessor! The world is this category's oyster!

Original Score
Soul
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Mank
Minari
Alternate: Tenet

After a few bouts of chaos, I've opted to play it safe here, though I suppose I could get safer yet (taking out Minari for Trial of the Chicago 7, as apparently every bland aspect of that movie is going to get its day in the sun). One movie to keep an eye on is Blizzard of Souls, a Latvian movie that made this category's longlist, and has gotten attention elsewhere. 

Sound
Sound of Metal
Mank
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland
Alternate: Tenet

Assuming that the Academy's flattening of its sound awards (they condensed sound mixing and sound editing into one award this year) is going to result in the flattest possible category, in which best picture hopefuls get in by virtue of being best picture hopefuls (much like what had been happening with sound mixing previously). This is nothing against any of the predicted nominees, all of which have interesting sound designs in their own right, but.

Original Song
"Speak Now"-One Night in Miami
"Io si"-The Live Ahead
"Fight for You"-Judas and the Black Messiah
"Husavik"-Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
"Make it Work"-Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Alternate: "Turntables"-All In: The Fight for Democracy

Choosing to dream here, with both past-pastiche musical yawp "Husavik" and Diane Warren's latest attempt to throw her ailing carapace at Oscar, "Io si." If you're expecting a nominee with less in the way of carapace/joie de vivre, then look for The Trial of the Chicago 7's "Hear My Voice" (again, how many categories are going to subject us to lifting up something middling from that film and pretending that it's solved politics forever).

Animated Film
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Onward
Over the Moon
The Croods: New Age
Alternate: A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

It would be awfully atypical for this branch to exclude all the international entries (like Ride Your Wave, Bombay Rose, or The Willoughbys) in favor of big American studio offerings and sequels, but none of the smaller titles feel like they've really got the juice this year. Plus, one of the category's locks, Wolfwalkers, is Irish, so maybe it feels worldwide enough for the branch to nominate it and then nominate The Croods and still sleep at night. (...I liked the first Croods movie, I'm sure this one would be a totally respectable nominee.)

International Feature
Another Round-Denmark
Quo Vadis, Aida?-Bosnia and Herzegovina
Collective-Romania
Dear Comrades!-Russia
Night of the Kings-Ivory Coast
Alternate: A Sun-Taiwan

Have I skewed too much toward Eastern Europe? Maybe. Have I made a mistake by leaving out both critical darling La Llorona/Guatemala and easy get Two of Us/France? Also maybe. But I have made my bed, and my bed is in the Ivory-ass Coast, so there.

Documentary Feature
Time
Crip Camp
Collective
Boys State
My Octopus Teacher
Alternate: Welcome to Chechnya

Big choice on my part to include My Octopus Teacher over critical successes like Chechnya, Dick Johnson is Dead, or The Truffle Hunters, but I'm trying it. I'm basing my prediction entirely on how popular the movie was over the summer, and that everyone who sees it seems to love it (or at least want to talk about it). That, and the novelty factor (that still isn't too much of a novelty to put people off--sorry, Dick Johnson, I love you anyway).

And there you have it! For those of you playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:
Mank-10
Minari-7
Nomadland-7
The Trial of the Chicago 7-6
Sound of Metal-6

In the meantime, if I could guarantee any nominations, it'd be either Paul Raci in supporting actor for Sound of Metal or Delroy Lindo in actor for Da 5 Bloods, though I'll also spare a thought for First Cow getting in anywhere. And If I could guarantee any one nomination didn't happen, I'd use my power to send Jared Leto to the watery abyss from whence he came, or, barring that, try and bring Trial of the Chicago 7's final tally down a bit. 

And that's that! In 13 hours, all of this will be meaningless! I'll be back tomorrow morning to unpack the actual nominations--it's like Christmas morning, only I have more fun than at actual Christmas, and everyone else has no fun at all! Then we'll see how wrong I was (so wrong), and how angry we all need to be!